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The cost of things - particularly the D7 Miracle Worker Flight Deck Carrier (D7)
crusty8mac
Member Posts: 1,381 Arc User
I've been watching people with the D7 Miracle Worker Flight Deck Carrier with all their pew pew pets, and thought I'd like to fly one myself. Looking on the exchange, my Liberated Borg Klingon would have to pay 1,353,200,000 EC to obtain one.
Doing the maths, I would need to sell in the neighborhood of 270 keys; and at today's cost (full price, no sale) that would run me roughly 31,000 zen. To purchase that with $$$$, would cost around $300, and with dilithium (at this moment it would cost me 438+ per Zen) it would be well over 13,500,000 Dil.
Assuming that I don't want to dish out $300 (and I DO NOT), I can refine enough dilithium to purchase the Zen to purchase the keys to sell the keys to buy the ship in 1700+ days; or using all of my toons, about 4 months. This of course assumes everything remains the same as it is today.
What I believe has happened here is that everyone has embraced the idea that it is always cheaper to buy lock box ships on the exchange than to gamble opening the lock boxes. Fewer people are opening the lock boxes because of this, and fewer lock box ships are making it to the exchange. Less supply, same demand (arguably higher demand on the exchange) results in higher cost on the exchange.
I'm not going to pay $300 for a ship. I'm not going to sit around and grind the dilithium for this ship. And I'm not going to gamble on the lock boxes. In the end, I'm not going to get this ship. This means that Cryptic will sell one less of these than it could. I wonder how many people feel the same as I do?
Doing the maths, I would need to sell in the neighborhood of 270 keys; and at today's cost (full price, no sale) that would run me roughly 31,000 zen. To purchase that with $$$$, would cost around $300, and with dilithium (at this moment it would cost me 438+ per Zen) it would be well over 13,500,000 Dil.
Assuming that I don't want to dish out $300 (and I DO NOT), I can refine enough dilithium to purchase the Zen to purchase the keys to sell the keys to buy the ship in 1700+ days; or using all of my toons, about 4 months. This of course assumes everything remains the same as it is today.
What I believe has happened here is that everyone has embraced the idea that it is always cheaper to buy lock box ships on the exchange than to gamble opening the lock boxes. Fewer people are opening the lock boxes because of this, and fewer lock box ships are making it to the exchange. Less supply, same demand (arguably higher demand on the exchange) results in higher cost on the exchange.
I'm not going to pay $300 for a ship. I'm not going to sit around and grind the dilithium for this ship. And I'm not going to gamble on the lock boxes. In the end, I'm not going to get this ship. This means that Cryptic will sell one less of these than it could. I wonder how many people feel the same as I do?
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STO Forum member since before February 2010.
STO Academy's excellent skill planner here: Link
I actually avoid success entirely. It doesn't get me what I want, and the consequences for failure are slim. -- markhawman
STO Forum member since before February 2010.
STO Academy's excellent skill planner here: Link
I actually avoid success entirely. It doesn't get me what I want, and the consequences for failure are slim. -- markhawman
Post edited by baddmoonrizin on
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Comments
Lock box and R&D pack sales are a major source of funding for the game and have been for over 7 years so there are clearly enough people who are willing to open them.
Lock box ships sell for 400-500 million, R&D pack ships sell for 1.2-1.4 billion. This reflects the zen cost to acquire one given the odds (1:250 for lock box, 1:100 for packs) and the value of the other contents which are close to zero for the R&D packs aside from the lobi which is worth roughly 200 million per 900 lobi.
> What I believe has happened here is that everyone has embraced the idea that it is always cheaper to buy lock box ships on the exchange than to gamble opening the lock boxes.
It's fact not belief. It really is cheaper (that is, the expected cost is lower) to buy ships on the exchange. If you have 100 R&D packs then before you open any of them the odds of getting a ship is only 67%. 1/3 of people opening 100 packs will not get a ship, while some others will get more than one. If you have 200 unopened packs your odds are still only 87% not 100%. Spend $350 during the 30% off sale, still have a 13% chance of not getting the ship.
If you'd bought 100 packs and sold them on the exchange, you'd have 1.5 billion EC and could buy that ship with a 100% success rate.
As an alternative, Promo packs are worth much more than keys, for not much more Zen. They're a much better thing to sell to obtain ec. And fewer people are opening boxes because a lot of the whales have quit the game. Crosis is still around and kicking and is generally considered one of the biggest whales in the game, having supplied a significant amount of the lockbox ships in game. Part of the reason the prices on these ships keep escalating is his absence due to his health. (I mean he literally was selling thousands of lockbox ships and hundreds of promo ships because of the amount of money he burned on packs, thousands every month.)
So yes less and less people are opening packs, because those with the financials to actually buy enough packs and boxes to win, are leaving, and most other people are aware that its a terrible idea to buy packs and boxes to actually try and win one.
During the weekend sale 100 packs would have cost $175. Still expensive just not close to $300.
I don't own any R&D pack ships myself but I've bought many lock box and lobi ships off the exchange. I sold 8 packs and a few stockpiled keys this weekend to add to my accumulated EC pile and buy the Tholian T6 science ship for one of my captains to complete his collection.
2. Spending hundreds on keys to sell for ec to buy a lockbox ship for a single char.
3. Farming for an extreme amount of time for credits, and for dil to convert to zen, to buy keys to sell to buy a lockbox ship for a single char.
4. Buying c store ships working out at between £17.39 and £24 each depending on which zen package(s) you choose. Depending on the ship either available to an entire faction, or in certain cases to every toon.
5. Earn enough dil convert it into zen then do no4 but without spending cash.
Personally i will not touch the lockbox ships period, it is disguised gambling in my opinion. I have no issue with cash shops in games, fair does they are a business they gotta make money. Most of my ships are c-store about half of them purchased and the other half from converted dil.
But i consider items that give a extremely small chance of a rare item requiring another cash store item to even open it to be too much. It pushes people to buy the keys to open the boxes to try and get the shiny. That is gambling plain and simple and i stay away from it. Most people will do it in moderation, some not at all.
But in these sorts of things the big money is made from the few that will compulsively spend and open until they get it because they cannot help themselves. Literally 1 person will make them more than hundreds of sensible spenders.
I have seen what happens to people who cannot control stuff like this, more than once i have had to drag a certain friend away from machines after they won to stop them putting it all back in then more till they have nothing. This is just the same thing in a differant form.
Depending on the supply and how old they are, the average is more around 200 mil ECs for a lockbox ship.
What's driving me up a wall is the current one is still around 600 mil. Probably gonna be a couple months before it comes down.
I wouldn't say I was fixated. I just like the pew pew pets. But thanks for the heads up.
STO Forum member since before February 2010.
STO Academy's excellent skill planner here: Link
I actually avoid success entirely. It doesn't get me what I want, and the consequences for failure are slim. -- markhawman
On PC? I think you're looking at Lobi ships which are around 200 million because they are a side effect of getting the lock box and pack ships.
If you do have some cash to spare, I recommend buying promo packs and selling them instead of opening them, fight the temptation and the urge.
At today's prices (nothing on sale) I would need 1875 R&D Packs - assuming that I could actually sell that many on the exchange. Doing the math, I would need 468,750 Zen, and that translates to about $400.
Not gonna do that either.
STO Forum member since before February 2010.
STO Academy's excellent skill planner here: Link
I actually avoid success entirely. It doesn't get me what I want, and the consequences for failure are slim. -- markhawman
No I'm not. If a lockbox ship has been out for a while, it does tend to get down to around 200 mil. I've gotten several Fed side that way. Its the Klingon specific ones that tend to be higher due to lower supply. Fed and cross faction tend to have a higher supply, and generally average around 200 mil at some point.
Right now the Divergence choice box is still averaging around 600 mil because its still a relatively new one, and probably because it also has the three previous Kelvin timeline ships in it.
True, but those aren't available right at the moment. It's something to consider for the future, though.
STO Forum member since before February 2010.
STO Academy's excellent skill planner here: Link
I actually avoid success entirely. It doesn't get me what I want, and the consequences for failure are slim. -- markhawman
However, more people buying ships on the exchange does increase demand and therefore prices. There is also inflation.
Lockbox ships haven't been that low in years. Today's average price for a T6 infinity-lockbox ship is 500 million. There are exactly two ships whos price begins with a 2, the Krenim Warship (225) and the Shuk-din (235).
I'm not really discussing the "how" to get something. I'm mostly interested in the economics involved, and how skewed it is in MMOs generally, and STO specifically. I'm thinking that Cryptic is hurting itself, but apparently they are not of that opinion. They have their metrics, but I've always questioned their ability to correctly interpret what those metrics are telling them.
STO Forum member since before February 2010.
STO Academy's excellent skill planner here: Link
I actually avoid success entirely. It doesn't get me what I want, and the consequences for failure are slim. -- markhawman
And Cryptic has nothing to do with exchange prices, beyond putting that 1.5 billion cap on it.
Not complaining. Just noting. Relax. Take a breath. Are you the guy that started screaming at me in the drive through at McDonald's last week?
STO Forum member since before February 2010.
STO Academy's excellent skill planner here: Link
I actually avoid success entirely. It doesn't get me what I want, and the consequences for failure are slim. -- markhawman
>>It's not "skewed" at all. It's pure free market capitalism.
>>And Cryptic has nothing to do with exchange prices, beyond putting that 1.5 billion cap on it.[/quote]
Oh, it is extremely skewed. For example, I can buy an item that comes in a multiple choice reward pack for less than I can buy the pack. In other words, I can buy an item, knowing exactly what I'm getting, for less than it costs to buy the pack that only gives me a chance to get that item. This isn't a one time anomaly either.
STO Forum member since before February 2010.
STO Academy's excellent skill planner here: Link
I actually avoid success entirely. It doesn't get me what I want, and the consequences for failure are slim. -- markhawman
I only play a couple of MMOs, and I'll agree that Cryptic's F2P model is generous.
"Metrics" - Cryptic's word, not mine - are very much in need of interpreting here. How do they know that the lock boxes deliver more cash than putting the the lock box ships directly into the C-store? There is no way to know that without some interpretation of their numbers. Misinterpretation of statistics, metrics, ledger sheets, and the like are quite common, and I believe that Cryptic might be guilty of such misinterpretation.
Here is a question I don't believe they have adequately answered - because they don't have anyone on staff who can adequately interpret the numbers: how many more lock boxes would we sell if we bettered the odds of getting the big prize?
STO Forum member since before February 2010.
STO Academy's excellent skill planner here: Link
I actually avoid success entirely. It doesn't get me what I want, and the consequences for failure are slim. -- markhawman
I hate that for you. Sincerely.
All you need to do is create a bunch of toons, and grind away.
But I'm gonna take it you feel the same way that I do, you don't want to pay $300 for the item, you aren't going to gamble on the lock boxes to acquire it, so unless the game continues for another decade, you won't be getting that item. Would you buy that item for $$$$ if it were reasonably priced?
STO Forum member since before February 2010.
STO Academy's excellent skill planner here: Link
I actually avoid success entirely. It doesn't get me what I want, and the consequences for failure are slim. -- markhawman