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STO: Age of Discovery - Excited YEAH/NAY

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  • dongemaharudongemaharu Member Posts: 544 Arc User
    I can’t believe there are people who believe CBS numbers aren’t spun. It’s...it’s embarrassing. But that would be fraud, and fraud is illegal, so it must never happen.
  • ichaerus1ichaerus1 Member Posts: 986 Arc User
    jonsills wrote: »
    Yeah, TLJ is so hated that it made over a billion dollars at the box office.

    I wish I could get people to hate me like that...

    Just so you know, making lots of money at the box office doesn't mean that you're beloved by all. It can easily mean that you were good enough to dupe people early on, and banked on the Star Wars name to sell the movie. How are those Ma-Rey Sue toys selling? And yes, it made over 1 billion at the box office, and now? After watching what Rian Johnson did with the characters? Yes, it made a lot of money in the theaters, yes, Star Wars fans got excited, and went to see it in the theaters. After that? Buyer's remorse. And the backlash, with how Kathleen Kennedy and Rian Johnson railroaded the story. Then they turned on the fans who were passionate about Star Wars for decades, insulting them. Otherwise TLJ toys would still be flying off the shelves if it's so "beloved." And not at a 80% discount either.

    And it swung over into Solo. Which is a financial loss itself.

    Yes, you are the exception, in loving TLJ. Not the majority. Exception, not the rule.
  • ichaerus1ichaerus1 Member Posts: 986 Arc User
    I wouldn't put much stock into this poll and neither should it be used as a point.
    Quite true.
    What will determine ST:D's popularity in ST:O will be the sale of lockboxes (I assume there will be an Age of Discovery specific one), and AoD starter pack and AoD themed complete pack (containing whatever gear, weapons, ships, etc. from ST:D).
    Should those sales be lackluster--which I suspect they will be--then I would think Cryptic would back off the ST:D content (unless there is some marketing agreement with CBS we are all unaware of). Just speculation on my part I know, but it will be interesting to watch.
    Based on what? The number of Crossfield and Sarcophagus ships in game? Or the number of people running around Risa in a Disco uniform? What about the number of pages in the forum thread about the arcane way the Disco phaser rifle works?

    EDITS for the EDIT god!

    For the record, I like the linked space weapons for their visuals. Though I wish that more flavors were added for the beam weapons(plasma, tetryon, antiproton, polaron). You can never have enough dakka. Although I suppose that there is purple dakka with the Vaadwaur polaron weapons. Still, we need more dakka beam weapons!
  • markhawkmanmarkhawkman Member Posts: 35,231 Arc User
    ichaerus1 wrote: »
    I wouldn't put much stock into this poll and neither should it be used as a point.
    Quite true.
    What will determine ST:D's popularity in ST:O will be the sale of lockboxes (I assume there will be an Age of Discovery specific one), and AoD starter pack and AoD themed complete pack (containing whatever gear, weapons, ships, etc. from ST:D).
    Should those sales be lackluster--which I suspect they will be--then I would think Cryptic would back off the ST:D content (unless there is some marketing agreement with CBS we are all unaware of). Just speculation on my part I know, but it will be interesting to watch.
    Based on what? The number of Crossfield and Sarcophagus ships in game? Or the number of people running around Risa in a Disco uniform? What about the number of pages in the forum thread about the arcane way the Disco phaser rifle works?

    EDITS for the EDIT god!
    For the record, I like the linked space weapons for their visuals. Though I wish that more flavors were added for the beam weapons(plasma, tetryon, antiproton, polaron). You can never have enough dakka. Although I suppose that there is purple dakka with the Vaadwaur polaron weapons. Still, we need more dakka beam weapons!
    Mmm... yeah that'd be nice! I have fun using all sorts of different weapons. :)
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  • redvengeredvenge Member Posts: 1,425 Arc User
    azrael605 wrote: »
    They aren't in the least bit afraid to release numbers. They just did so in several events, a stockholder meeting, STLV, and Comic Con. All Access is currwntly sitting at 2.5 million subscribers (it took Netflix 6 years to get to that number), they expect over 4 million before the end of 2019 (Netflix hit 4 million about the time Bojack Horseman came out).

    Edit, this does not count viewers watching Discovery without All Access, such as Canadians watching on Space, or the other 188 countries where Netflix carries the show.
    CBS has NEVER released the viewer numbers for Star Trek: Discovery. They NEVER will. Additionally, that 2.5 million subscribers did not all watch TRIBBLE.

    I have seen a couple of methods put forward to estimate view counts.
    CBS says The Grammys provided the second-best day for subscriber signups to All Access, behind the launch of Star Trek: Discovery in September 2017. The company says it now has more than 2 million subscribers to All Access.

    One year ago, CBS said that Showtime had 1.5 million subscribers and that the All Access had “almost as many.” That means in the last year All Access has acquired around half-a-million new subscribers, or just over 40,000 subscribers a month. The annual growth rate is currently 33%, a strong performance by any measure. However, it looks like growth has slowed dramatically.

    In July of 2016, CBS All Access had 1 million subscribers according to the company’s CEO Les Moonves. This data suggests the SVOD service acquired a half-million subscribers between July 2016 and February 2017, or about 70,000 subscribers a month. This data suggests an equivalent annual growth rate of more than 100%.

    2017 growth is dramatically slower than 2016, despite the release of a blockbuster like Discovery.

    CBS does not release viewing figures for Star Trek: Discovery, so it is difficult to know exactly how many people are watching. However, we can estimate a maximum audience for the show from the subscriber numbers we do know.

    A good proportion of the most recent signups to All Access likely came with the intention of watching at least some of the episodes of the show. Let us assume half of the new sign-ups, or 250,000, fall into that category. A popular show like Big Bang Theory is getting ratings of around 2.8 in the 18-49 age range for a total audience of 3.6 million. Assuming Discovery does at least this well with All Access customers signed up before it launched, we would see an additional 50,000 for a total of 300,000 subscribers watching.

    Finally, we need to account for family viewing and the fact that most families share their SVOD passwords with each other. To be generous, let’s assume that if one person in an All Access household watches Discovery everyone does. Since there are 2.6 people in the average American home, the maximum audience for an episode of Star Trek: Discovery is 780,000.


    CBS will never release the numbers. No digital delivery service will ever release numbers, because it does not benefit them.

    However, I've worked in trying to tabulate digital delivery service #s before. I think we can probably make some decent estimates here and there on what the situation looks like.

    First, lets look at pre and present numbers on CBSAA:

    CBS All Access, Showtime OTT to Top 4 Million Subscribers, Expand Internationally and Add Sports Channel - dated August 7th, 2017 which is about as close as you're going to get to pre-Trek numbers.

    Now, the grain of salt with CBSAA is that their numbers are intertwined with Showtime. The rumor is that the numbers are split pretty evenly between CBS and ST. This article just came out and more or less confirms the number as being true, as we know that CBSAA just claimed the 5 million mark a few days ago.

    This puts CBSAA in the ballpark of 2.5 - 3.0 million users as of late February. Oddly enough, CBS claimed the Grammys had a big effect on signups.

    I would posit that not as many people canned CBSAA as we'd want to believe after Trek was over. Some people are lazy, and will not unsubscribe, some will keep watching for other shows (and we know that CBS is desperately seeking to add new shows, as they greenit Jordan Peele's new Twilight Zone reboot).

    As for numbers, you'd have to then quantify how many people actually watched Discovery on CBSAA and are privy to can the service because of it not being on for the next few months.

    Using comparable data from HBO (who does have hard numbers) for Game of Thrones, you can build up some case scenarios for Discovery in an imperfect, but logical way. I would argue that Discovery probably had 1.2 - 1.5 million legal users (approximately 60-75% of all valid CBSAA accounts) had access to the show from Episode(s) 2-8, with slow general increases as time went on based on data from Season 7 of GOT, using their user rating decay rates vs. Star Trek. Episodes 9-15 would suggest the number further increased to 1.5 - 1.8 million by the end of the season.

    So, the number of possible Star Trek: Discovery viewers could range from 780,000 to 1.8 million, depending on which math you subscribe to. The first calculation is assuming that existing All Access viewers had little to no interest in TRIBBLE, while the second one assumes approximately 70% of ALL viewers watched some or all of TRIBBLE, with more people signing up because "the show is that good".

    Regardless, there are no clear numbers on how many people on All Access watched TRIBBLE.
  • jonsillsjonsills Member Posts: 10,361 Arc User
    Okay, fine. Assume Disco is indeed the dismal failure you want it to be.

    Explain to me then, please, why the suits at CBS, who are hardly drooling Trek fanboys, have greenlit at least two more Trek series. Why would they throw money at a franchise that's played out? What kind of sense does that make?
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  • redvengeredvenge Member Posts: 1,425 Arc User
    jonsills wrote: »
    Okay, fine. Assume Disco is indeed the dismal failure you want it to be.

    Explain to me then, please, why the suits at CBS, who are hardly drooling Trek fanboys, have greenlit at least two more Trek series. Why would they throw money at a franchise that's played out? What kind of sense does that make?
    Oh it's more than two.

    -A series set at Starfleet Academy from creators Stephanie Savage and Josh Schwartz. The duo currently serve as co-showrunners on the Hulu-Marvel series “Runaways” and are best known for creating shows like “Gossip Girl” and the CW’s reboot of Dynasty.
    -A limited series whose plot details are being kept under wraps.
    -A limited series based around the “Wrath of Khan” story. Khan’s full name is Khan Noonien Singh. He was famously portrayed by Ricardo Montalbán in both the original series episode “Space Seed” and again in the film “Star Trek II: Wrath of Khan.” Benedict Cumberbatch then played the character in the 2013 film “Star Trek Into Darkness.”
    -An animated series whose plot details are being kept under wraps.
    https://variety.com/2018/tv/news/star-trek-tv-shows-cbs-discovery-alex-kurtzman-1202842335/

    See, Star Trek has NEVER been popular enough to support two concurrent shows. Star Trek: Beyond performed below expectations. More networks are cancelling sci-fi shows than making them. All these shows are going to be CBS All Access exclusive, and CBS COO Joseph Ianniello said Canada and Australia would be the first test markets for expansion of CBS All Access outside the U.S. (with Europe to follow in the months after). Currently, CBS is banking on Star Trek to compete against Disney's IPs (such as Star Wars and Marvel comics) in the streaming sphere. I think CBS is insane and they need to dial it waaaay back.
    https://techcrunch.com/2018/03/07/cbs-all-access-is-doubling-down-on-originals-planning-expansion-to-canada-and-australia/
  • redvengeredvenge Member Posts: 1,425 Arc User
    edited August 2018
    patrickngo wrote: »
    Deep Space 9, The Next Generation, and TNG would all like a word with you. (all three overlapped one to two seasons apiece.)
    DS9 was going to replace TNG. They were not going to exist concurrently for their entire run. It was not attempted again because there were not enough viewers.

    Kurtzman wants to be at the helm of a "shared universe". He laid out the plans for Universal's "Dark Universe". Those plans went up in smoke shortly after the Mummy hit theaters (Universal also gave him the boot). Now, he's trying to do it with Star Trek. CBS also wants to be the next Netflix and it wants to compete with Disney in the "sci fi"genre. Both of these sound like recipes for disaster.
  • duncanidaho11duncanidaho11 Member Posts: 7,867 Arc User
    edited August 2018
    redvenge wrote: »
    patrickngo wrote: »
    Deep Space 9, The Next Generation, and TNG would all like a word with you. (all three overlapped one to two seasons apiece.)
    DS9 was going to replace TNG. They were not going to exist concurrently for their entire run. It was not attempted again because there were not enough viewers.

    Kurtzman wants to be at the helm of a "shared universe". He laid out the plans for Universal's "Dark Universe". Those plans went up in smoke shortly after the Mummy hit theaters (Universal also gave him the boot). Now, he's trying to do it with Star Trek. CBS also wants to be the next Netflix and it wants to compete with Disney in the "sci fi"genre. Both of these sound like recipes for disaster.

    Right...

    1. CBS all access is doing well, from what information we have, and "wants to be the next Netflix" is stretching things considerably. CBS is trying to establish what you can think of as a new channel in streaming providers. While they want it to be as successful as they can it will never equal Netflix because, fundamentally, it will never carry the same range of programming because CBS isn't developing its library in the same way as Netflix originally stocked theirs (their overlap is making original programming and whatever CBS shows are available on Netflix.) There are marked differences which allows each to satisfy separate niches, indicating (from the competitive exclusion principle in ecological dynamics) that this can become a stable state. A full out disaster for CBS All Access is not a probable outcome at this point (after the thing launched and demonstrated the capacity to grow.) It may fizzle over time (leading to the "oh well" scenario of CBS turning to an existing streaming provider for its Star Trek plans) but that remains to be seen.

    2. Disney also isn't competing directly with Star Trek. Conversely, CBS isn't competing directly with Star Wars. That franchise is to the Sci-Fi genre as deer are to ungulates. Ie. a species within a clade. Antelope can exist too thanks to dynamics like the competitive exclusion principle and differential adaptations. They may still compete for space in the popular consciousness but you'd be hard pressed to argue that they're doing the same thing even at the most basic level of story telling beyond having space, plots, and characters in them. Any production will succeed or fail based on its ability to compete within its own ecological circumstances and if you hold what Disney is doing as some kind of binary with CBS (or vica versa) then you're probably misrepresenting actors in an ecosystem as 1:1 combatants (holding Trek in fully equal regard to Wars, in spite of their fundamental differences and what those mean for cultural appreciation.) Even if each tried to meet the other head-on, they would ultimately find themselves unable to completely satisfy the niche of the other because despite whatever you may do to tone and presentation, the series are coming from different places in popular culture. They will always be appreciated differently, no matter how exactly they could try to replicate one another in form and immediate function. This is what we call developmental constraint. It also helps maintain diversity in nature and in media.

    Also, why quote "shared universe?" Star Trek has a shared universe, it is the canon which ties the various productions together.
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  • starswordcstarswordc Member Posts: 10,963 Arc User
    redvenge wrote: »
    See, Star Trek has NEVER been popular enough to support two concurrent shows. Star Trek: Beyond performed below expectations. More networks are cancelling sci-fi shows than making them. All these shows are going to be CBS All Access exclusive, and CBS COO Joseph Ianniello said Canada and Australia would be the first test markets for expansion of CBS All Access outside the U.S. (with Europe to follow in the months after). Currently, CBS is banking on Star Trek to compete against Disney's IPs (such as Star Wars and Marvel comics) in the streaming sphere. I think CBS is insane and they need to dial it waaaay back.
    https://techcrunch.com/2018/03/07/cbs-all-access-is-doubling-down-on-originals-planning-expansion-to-canada-and-australia/
    Oh, give me a break, network execs always hate space-based SF. It comes down to money: it's more expensive per viewer eyeball than other genres because of the special effects and costuming load. We should consider ourselves fortunate it's CBS and not Fox or Syfy who controls the rights -- we'd end up with half a season aired out of order before they cancelled it to make room for some brain-melting reality show.
    2. Disney also isn't competing directly with Star Trek. Conversely, CBS isn't competing directly with Star Wars. That franchise is to the Sci-Fi genre as deer are to ungulates. Ie. a species within a clade. Antelope can exist too thanks to dynamics like the competitive exclusion principle and differential adaptations. They may still compete for space in the popular consciousness but you'd be hard pressed to argue that they're doing the same thing even at the most basic level of story telling beyond having space, plots, and characters in them. Any production will succeed or fail based on its ability to compete within its own ecological circumstances and if you hold what Disney is doing as some kind of binary with CBS (or vica versa) then you're probably misrepresenting actors in an ecosystem as 1:1 combatants (holding Trek in fully equal regard to Wars, in spite of their fundamental differences and what those mean for cultural appreciation.) Even if each tried to meet the other head-on, they would ultimately find themselves unable to completely satisfy the niche of the other because despite whatever you may do to tone and presentation, the series are coming from different places in popular culture. They will always be appreciated differently, no matter how exactly they could try to replicate one another in form and immediate function. This is what we call developmental constraint. It also helps maintain diversity in nature and in media.

    Actually, my personal impression was that Rian Johnson might have borrowed a few beats from Star Trek in TLJ (which I loved), especially in regards to societal commentary (the cynicism of the arms trade, the democratization of the Jedi mythos via Rey turning out to really be a nobody from nowhere after all). But that'd be a whole 'nother thread.
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  • ltminnsltminns Member Posts: 12,569 Arc User
    Two year overlaps between TNG and DS9 and DS9 and Voyager.
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  • starswordcstarswordc Member Posts: 10,963 Arc User
    edited August 2018
    Now I understand why CBS put the quietus on Star Trek fan films. Most fan films, regardless of quality, actually try to honor the spirit of the prime universe Star Trek saga... And I guess CBS just cannot have that...

    Tell that to Star Trek Continues. They got reported to YouTube for copyright infringement by a third party and taken down, and CBS told YouTube to put the show back up and let them keep on making episodes.

    The kibosh on fan films came solely as a result of one particular team abusing CBS's largesse. You want to get mad at somebody, get mad at Alec Peters.
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  • artan42artan42 Member Posts: 10,450 Bug Hunter
    I just hope that Cryptic/PWE doesn't become so concerned with kissing CBS's butt over Discovery that they loose sight of the the prime ENT-NEMESIS universe that drew everyone here to begin with. I would find it upsetting if they keep updating the discovery era and neglect the core era.

    DSC is the Prime ENT-NEM universe. It takes place between ENT and TOS.

    And STO needs to bring DSC up to parity with the rest of Trek in how it's featured in the game.
    All plots currently follow on from or involve characters from TNG, VGR, DS9, and the TNG films. ENT leads to the Temporal Cold War arc and TOS/TAS gave us the AoY expansion. Currently DSC doesn't have any representation ingame beside some mentions in 'Home' and two ships and a uniform. The only eras not included fully are the TOS films and the KT films.​​
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    Norway and Yeager dammit... I still want my Typhoon and Jupiter though.
    JJ Trek The Kelvin Timeline is just Trek and it's fully canon... get over it. But I still prefer TAR.

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  • meimeitoomeimeitoo Member Posts: 12,594 Arc User
    starswordc wrote: »
    Now I understand why CBS put the quietus on Star Trek fan films. Most fan films, regardless of quality, actually try to honor the spirit of the prime universe Star Trek saga... And I guess CBS just cannot have that...

    Tell that to Star Trek Continues. They got reported to YouTube for copyright infringement by a third party and taken down, and CBS told YouTube to put the show back up and let them keep on making episodes.

    The kibosh on fan films came solely as a result of one particular team abusing CBS's largesse. You want to get mad at somebody, get mad at Alec Peters.


    Alec Peters is a total douche. But what's with Star Trek Continues making more Episodes? Didn't their series get concluded?
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  • starswordcstarswordc Member Posts: 10,963 Arc User
    > @meimeitoo said:
    > Alec Peters is a total douche. But what's with Star Trek Continues making more Episodes? Didn't their series get concluded?

    No, the thing with YouTube I'm talking about was way before the whole Crapsanar thing. After it, Vic Micnogna and Co. decided they couldn't continue the series as planned under the fan film guidance that Smart Alec insisted in court that CBS should have given if they expected him not to be a douchebag.
    "Great War! / And I cannot take more! / Great tour! / I keep on marching on / I play the great score / There will be no encore / Great War! / The War to End All Wars"
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  • garaks31garaks31 Member Posts: 2,845 Arc User
    my opinion on axanar case, it was and hopefully the full project will be a good work.
    i don't care about peter's personality. like i don't care about Roddenberry's personality.
    and since cbs and paramount, backed off from the case i consider they were in fault.
  • artan42artan42 Member Posts: 10,450 Bug Hunter
    artan42 wrote: »
    I just hope that Cryptic/PWE doesn't become so concerned with kissing CBS's butt over Discovery that they loose sight of the the prime ENT-NEMESIS universe that drew everyone here to begin with. I would find it upsetting if they keep updating the discovery era and neglect the core era.

    DSC is the Prime ENT-NEM universe. It takes place between ENT and TOS.​​

    Except it isn't and it doesn't.

    Just because they may SAY it does does nor make it true. It is a completely altered universe shoehorned into a point between the ENT and TOS. The only way I will be able to accept that Discovery is an actual part of the prime universe is if its final episode explains that some sinister force caused everything to suddenly be altered, and it continued that way for however many years the show will have run, and that force was ultimately defeated, causing a total reversal of events, resulting in the whole thing having never happened. It would be the year of hell effect on an epic scale.

    And to explain the Klingons as they look... What if the sinister force's first move was an ever so slight alteration of the genetic manipulation that Phlox applied to the Klingons making them "humanized?" Instead in increases the Klingon side turning them into what we see them as in Discovery. But that too would be a change that gets undone. And this whole slipping into some sort of space mushroom induced vertical warp jump BS? The catalyst that makes it possible is a side-effect of the sinister force's incursion into that timeline, So it would have never existed either...

    My point is, that it is going to take the show runners a whole lot of fancy writing to explain how the Star Trek universe of Discovery actually fits within the prime universe of the shows and films that came before. And I am sorry, but "It just does" will not be acceptable.

    Oh you're CBS! My apologies. I'll take your word about your own show over random whingeing fanbois any day.

    Thank you for taking the time to talk to me Mr CBS.
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    Norway and Yeager dammit... I still want my Typhoon and Jupiter though.
    JJ Trek The Kelvin Timeline is just Trek and it's fully canon... get over it. But I still prefer TAR.

    #TASforSTO


    '...I can tell you that we're not in the military and that we intend no harm to the whales.' Kirk: The Voyage Home
    'Starfleet is not a military organisation. Its purpose is exploration.' Picard: Peak Performance
    'This is clearly a military operation. Is that what we are now? Because I thought we were explorers!' Scotty: Into Darkness
    '...The Federation. Starfleet. We're not a military agency.' Scotty: Beyond
    'I'm not a soldier anymore. I'm an engineer.' Miles O'Brien: Empok Nor
    '...Starfleet could use you... It's a peacekeeping and humanitarian armada...' Admiral Pike: Star Trek

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  • peterconnorfirstpeterconnorfirst Member Posts: 6,225 Arc User
    edited August 2018
    artan42 wrote: »
    I just hope that Cryptic/PWE doesn't become so concerned with kissing CBS's butt over Discovery that they loose sight of the the prime ENT-NEMESIS universe that drew everyone here to begin with. I would find it upsetting if they keep updating the discovery era and neglect the core era.

    DSC is the Prime ENT-NEM universe. It takes place between ENT and TOS.​​

    Except it isn't and it doesn't.

    Just because they may SAY it does does nor make it true. It is a completely altered universe shoehorned into a point between the ENT and TOS. The only way I will be able to accept that Discovery is an actual part of the prime universe is if its final episode explains that some sinister force caused everything to suddenly be altered, and it continued that way for however many years the show will have run, and that force was ultimately defeated, causing a total reversal of events, resulting in the whole thing having never happened. It would be the year of hell effect on an epic scale.

    And to explain the Klingons as they look... What if the sinister force's first move was an ever so slight alteration of the genetic manipulation that Phlox applied to the Klingons making them "humanized?" Instead in increases the Klingon side turning them into what we see them as in Discovery. But that too would be a change that gets undone. And this whole slipping into some sort of space mushroom induced vertical warp jump BS? The catalyst that makes it possible is a side-effect of the sinister force's incursion into that timeline, So it would have never existed either...

    My point is, that it is going to take the show runners a whole lot of fancy writing to explain how the Star Trek universe of Discovery actually fits within the prime universe of the shows and films that came before. And I am sorry, but "It just does" will not be acceptable.

    Wait a second… Do I get this straight? You refuse to “accept” TRIBBLE as being part of the prime timeline because it does not come in a worse look than when had in 1964’s black and white “The Cage” and because the makeup of the Klingons have been altered? :D

    Tell me, did u also refuse to accept TNG for 7 and DS9 for 5 seasons as prime timeline before it was acknowledged for the first time in the show that the Klingons looked different on TOS? How about Enterprise? I suppose not prime-line as well until final season?

    And come to think of it in The Cage they babbled something about “time warp factor” and finally “broken time barriers” when flying faster than light. We never heard that again… lets better treat the very first holy Roddenberry Pilot of all Star Trek shows as not prime-timeline as well as such stuff was never ever mentioned later on...
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