I honestly find it curious that people would open packs for the Lobi to begin with. This is just something to make oneself feel better, isn't it? Because if you actually willingly spend money to accumulate Lobi you end up paying ludicrous amounts for singular, character only items. For instance, a 50 Lobi weapon (one single item) is roughly 10 €/$. If that is really what you are going for, that's not really better than 250 €/$ for a single ship
I HAD to have the Kelvin Timeline Klingon outfit for the ridges with the bling.
That is why I opened the batch of lockboxes for Lobi. And, yes, it was fun.
I think, well, I wish, knowing it won't happen tho, that there was a slowly increasing guaranteed chance, like the rarity upgrade chance when upgrading a piece of gear, it might take 1 or 50 trys, but eventually it WILL upgrade, its guaranteed to eventually. I wish there was the same system with lockboxes and top prizes in them. So eventually, eventualyyyy even the most truly unlucky people would eventually win the ship too. Like I said, I've opened a thousand lockboxes probly easy over the years, and I have NEVER won a top, or 2nd prize, ship from one, not once, ever.
'Rule of thumb' is that it's better to sell the lock box keys on the exchange, and then use the EC gained from key-sales to buy the ship you want from the exchange.
Great advice until everyone does that and no one is opening boxes.
I open 10-30 boxes each time a new lockbox comes out. I have never gotten a ship from a lockbox & I've been playing since before lockboxes. I don't want to do the math to figure out how many keys I've used.
I think, well, I wish, knowing it won't happen tho, that there was a slowly increasing guaranteed chance, like the rarity upgrade chance when upgrading a piece of gear, it might take 1 or 50 trys, but eventually it WILL upgrade, its guaranteed to eventually. I wish there was the same system with lockboxes and top prizes in them. So eventually, eventualyyyy even the most truly unlucky people would eventually win the ship too. Like I said, I've opened a thousand lockboxes probly easy over the years, and I have NEVER won a top, or 2nd prize, ship from one, not once, ever.
If you can accept not getting any lobi or consolation prizes, just follow the golden rule as mentioned earlier: sell keys for EC, buy ship for EC, 100% chance of success.
I think, well, I wish, knowing it won't happen tho, that there was a slowly increasing guaranteed chance, like the rarity upgrade chance when upgrading a piece of gear, it might take 1 or 50 trys, but eventually it WILL upgrade, its guaranteed to eventually. I wish there was the same system with lockboxes and top prizes in them. So eventually, eventualyyyy even the most truly unlucky people would eventually win the ship too. Like I said, I've opened a thousand lockboxes probly easy over the years, and I have NEVER won a top, or 2nd prize, ship from one, not once, ever.
Yet if you really wanted one, you could have spent a fraction of the money you did spend just buying keys and selling them for EC and buying (or trading) for the ship you may want.
Oh I have, bought lockbox ships that I wanted off the exchange. I stopped opening them with any hope at all of a ship long ago. It'd still be nice tho, when I do open them just for lobi, to eventuallyyyy finally get a top prize too.
Oh I have, bought lockbox ships that I wanted off the exchange. I stopped opening them with any hope at all of a ship long ago. It'd still be nice tho, when I do open them just for lobi, to eventuallyyyy finally get a top prize too.
And were you to continue opening boxes from now until the end of time, eventually you would get a top prize. But if that isn't important to you, then why worry about it?
No I probly wouldn't. I could open a million and still never win a ship. My luck is terrible. lol
Oh I have, bought lockbox ships that I wanted off the exchange. I stopped opening them with any hope at all of a ship long ago. It'd still be nice tho, when I do open them just for lobi, to eventuallyyyy finally get a top prize too.
And were you to continue opening boxes from now until the end of time, eventually you would get a top prize. But if that isn't important to you, then why worry about it?
No I probly wouldn't. I could open a million and still never win a ship. My luck is terrible. lol
Like I said before Law of averages doesn't work that way. Based on old wiki info, the odds of getting the top prize are roughly .5% or 1/50. Granted, there is no guarantee that if you open 50 lockboxes, you would win the top prize (and probably you wouldn't).
But the way statistics works even if the odds don't change (meaning each box is a 1/50 as oppose to 1/49, 1/48, etc.) in order to have that precentage the larger the population (in this case boxes opened) the closer you get to the actual percentage.
I don't know the mathematics of it, but basically, the fact that you keep not getting the top prize means your odds gradually increase with each failure. Eventually (not sure the number, but we are talking upwards of 500 boxes probably) your odds became certain, in order to correct the percentage, at which case it drops back down.
Oh I have, bought lockbox ships that I wanted off the exchange. I stopped opening them with any hope at all of a ship long ago. It'd still be nice tho, when I do open them just for lobi, to eventuallyyyy finally get a top prize too.
And were you to continue opening boxes from now until the end of time, eventually you would get a top prize. But if that isn't important to you, then why worry about it?
No I probly wouldn't. I could open a million and still never win a ship. My luck is terrible. lol
Like I said before Law of averages doesn't work that way. Based on old wiki info, the odds of getting the top prize are roughly .5% or 1/50. Granted, there is no guarantee that if you open 50 lockboxes, you would win the top prize (and probably you wouldn't).
But the way statistics works even if the odds don't change (meaning each box is a 1/50 as oppose to 1/49, 1/48, etc.) in order to have that precentage the larger the population (in this case boxes opened) the closer you get to the actual percentage.
I don't know the mathematics of it, but basically, the fact that you keep not getting the top prize means your odds gradually increase with each failure. Eventually (not sure the number, but we are talking upwards of 500 boxes probably) your odds became certain, in order to correct the percentage, at which case it drops back down.
FYI, it's actually 1 in 250 for lock boxes, 1 in 100 for R&D packs.
Probability has no memory so after opening 100 million boxes the odds for the next box are still only 1 in 250. It's only before opening a set of boxes that you can calculate group odds (dependent probability) for that specific set of boxes.
Oh I have, bought lockbox ships that I wanted off the exchange. I stopped opening them with any hope at all of a ship long ago. It'd still be nice tho, when I do open them just for lobi, to eventuallyyyy finally get a top prize too.
And were you to continue opening boxes from now until the end of time, eventually you would get a top prize. But if that isn't important to you, then why worry about it?
No I probly wouldn't. I could open a million and still never win a ship. My luck is terrible. lol
Like I said before Law of averages doesn't work that way. Based on old wiki info, the odds of getting the top prize are roughly .5% or 1/50. Granted, there is no guarantee that if you open 50 lockboxes, you would win the top prize (and probably you wouldn't).
But the way statistics works even if the odds don't change (meaning each box is a 1/50 as oppose to 1/49, 1/48, etc.) in order to have that precentage the larger the population (in this case boxes opened) the closer you get to the actual percentage.
I don't know the mathematics of it, but basically, the fact that you keep not getting the top prize means your odds gradually increase with each failure. Eventually (not sure the number, but we are talking upwards of 500 boxes probably) your odds became certain, in order to correct the percentage, at which case it drops back down.
FYI, it's actually 1 in 250 for lock boxes, 1 in 100 for R&D packs.
Probability has no memory so after opening 100 million boxes the odds for the next box are still only 1 in 250. It's only before opening a set of boxes that you can calculate group odds (dependent probability) for that specific set of boxes.
Not the faux 'probability has no memory' argument again, please. While the chances 'per roll' remain the same, of course, after opening enough boxes, eventually you are as good as guaranteed to hit the jackpot. Like throwing a dice, 5 billion times, hoping to have it land on '6' at least once: the chance that, at the end of rolling said dice 5 billion times, '6' didn't come up, is infinitesimal (in other words, you're pretty much guaranteed to have thrown '6' at least one). Ergo, it's true that "you not getting the top prize means your odds gradually increase with each failure."
Not the faux 'probability has no memory' argument again, please. While the chances 'per roll' remain the same, of course, after opening enough boxes, eventually you are as good as guaranteed to hit the jackpot. Like throwing a dice, 5 billion times, hoping to have it land on '6' at least once: the chance that, at the end of rolling said dice 5 billion times, '6' didn't come up, is infinitesimal (in other words, you're pretty much guaranteed to have thrown '6' at least one). Ergo, it's true that "you not getting the top prize means your odds gradually increase with each failure."
Yes, technically the odds are always 1/250. But the way statistics works, eventually you have to get to the "true probably" the more you get. So yes, after opening so many boxes (and I have no clue what the number is) you HAVE to eventually get the top prize, and it isn't going to be some number like 1 million or 1 billion or whatever. It is statiscally impossible to constantly open a lockbox and NEVER get the top prize. It doesn't work that way. So yes, the longer you go with a Failure, the more likely you are to get a "Win".
However the reverse is also true. If you say open 4 lockboxes and all four are the top prize, you are more likely with each "Success" to get a failure. Eventually the odds have to even out. That is how statistics works.
Oh I have, bought lockbox ships that I wanted off the exchange. I stopped opening them with any hope at all of a ship long ago. It'd still be nice tho, when I do open them just for lobi, to eventuallyyyy finally get a top prize too.
And were you to continue opening boxes from now until the end of time, eventually you would get a top prize. But if that isn't important to you, then why worry about it?
No I probly wouldn't. I could open a million and still never win a ship. My luck is terrible. lol
Like I said before Law of averages doesn't work that way. Based on old wiki info, the odds of getting the top prize are roughly .5% or 1/50. Granted, there is no guarantee that if you open 50 lockboxes, you would win the top prize (and probably you wouldn't).
But the way statistics works even if the odds don't change (meaning each box is a 1/50 as oppose to 1/49, 1/48, etc.) in order to have that precentage the larger the population (in this case boxes opened) the closer you get to the actual percentage.
I don't know the mathematics of it, but basically, the fact that you keep not getting the top prize means your odds gradually increase with each failure. Eventually (not sure the number, but we are talking upwards of 500 boxes probably) your odds became certain, in order to correct the percentage, at which case it drops back down.
FYI, it's actually 1 in 250 for lock boxes, 1 in 100 for R&D packs.
Probability has no memory so after opening 100 million boxes the odds for the next box are still only 1 in 250. It's only before opening a set of boxes that you can calculate group odds (dependent probability) for that specific set of boxes.
Not the faux 'probability has no memory' argument again, please. While the chances 'per roll' remain the same, of course, after opening enough boxes, eventually you are as good as guaranteed to hit the jackpot. Like throwing a dice, 5 billion times, hoping to have it land on '6' at least once: the chance that, at the end of rolling said dice 5 billion times, '6' didn't come up, is infinitesimal (in other words, you're pretty much guaranteed to have thrown '6' at least one). Ergo, it's true that "you not getting the top prize means your odds gradually increase with each failure."
Not quite.
If you have already opened 100 million boxes without getting a ship, that is in the past. You were very unlucky but it has no effect on your future odds.
If you are going to open 100 million boxes over the next year, then yes you can expect to receive roughly 400,000 ships. But only before you start. After opening 50 million boxes, regardless of how many ships you've won the expected return from the next 50 million boxes drops to 200,000.
So saying that because you've already opened elventy dozen boxes your odds are now higher and you're bound to get a ship soon is wrong, and is known as the gambler's fallacy.
If you have already opened N boxes without getting a ship, you can look back and say the probability of that happening was x%. But that is independent of the odds for boxes (N+1) ... (N +100). The past is past, the future is not yet written.
Not the faux 'probability has no memory' argument again, please. While the chances 'per roll' remain the same, of course, after opening enough boxes, eventually you are as good as guaranteed to hit the jackpot. Like throwing a dice, 5 billion times, hoping to have it land on '6' at least once: the chance that, at the end of rolling said dice 5 billion times, '6' didn't come up, is infinitesimal (in other words, you're pretty much guaranteed to have thrown '6' at least one). Ergo, it's true that "you not getting the top prize means your odds gradually increase with each failure."
Yes, technically the odds are always 1/250. But the way statistics works, eventually you have to get to the "true probably" the more you get. So yes, after opening so many boxes (and I have no clue what the number is) you HAVE to eventually get the top prize, and it isn't going to be some number like 1 million or 1 billion or whatever. It is statiscally impossible to constantly open a lockbox and NEVER get the top prize. It doesn't work that way. So yes, the longer you go with a Failure, the more likely you are to get a "Win".
However the reverse is also true. If you say open 4 lockboxes and all four are the top prize, you are more likely with each "Success" to get a failure. Eventually the odds have to even out. That is how statistics works.
Indeed. The 'billion' I used was just an exaggerated example, of course, to illustrate that, if you keep opening lockboxes, the chance that you have't gotten the Grand Prize by then, has become as good as impossible. So, for lock boxes, that moment has not arrived after just 250 'throws'. Not even after opening your 1,000th box in a row (that would still be a case of 'bad luck'). After 4,000 times you'd probably raise an eyebrow or two. But after, say, 10,000 'throws' it's probably safe to say something is fishy.
The faux 'probability has no memory' argument, btw, is stemming from what is essentially a strawman argument: namely imputing that people who say 'There is 1:6 chance to hit 6 when rolling a dice' assume a time-component. And we tend to talk about those matters in terms of time too; like 'After 1,000 rolls.' It were probably better to say 'When rolling 6 dice at the same time, there's a 1:6 chance one has landed on 6.' Humand think pretty linear, though. I have yet to meet anyone, though, who actually thought probability has a memory.
must have been my lucky night. Won 2 crossfields from 35 keys. Banked 810mil ec from selling them.
Hello rubber banding my old friend, time to bounce around the battlezone again, where are all my bug reports going?, out of love with this game I am falling, As Cryptic fail to acknowledge a problem exists, Shakes an angry fist, And from Support all I'm hearing are the sounds of silence.
Oh I have, bought lockbox ships that I wanted off the exchange. I stopped opening them with any hope at all of a ship long ago. It'd still be nice tho, when I do open them just for lobi, to eventuallyyyy finally get a top prize too.
And were you to continue opening boxes from now until the end of time, eventually you would get a top prize. But if that isn't important to you, then why worry about it?
No I probly wouldn't. I could open a million and still never win a ship. My luck is terrible. lol
Like I said before Law of averages doesn't work that way. Based on old wiki info, the odds of getting the top prize are roughly .5% or 1/50. Granted, there is no guarantee that if you open 50 lockboxes, you would win the top prize (and probably you wouldn't).
But the way statistics works even if the odds don't change (meaning each box is a 1/50 as oppose to 1/49, 1/48, etc.) in order to have that precentage the larger the population (in this case boxes opened) the closer you get to the actual percentage.
I don't know the mathematics of it, but basically, the fact that you keep not getting the top prize means your odds gradually increase with each failure. Eventually (not sure the number, but we are talking upwards of 500 boxes probably) your odds became certain, in order to correct the percentage, at which case it drops back down.
FYI, it's actually 1 in 250 for lock boxes, 1 in 100 for R&D packs.
Probability has no memory so after opening 100 million boxes the odds for the next box are still only 1 in 250. It's only before opening a set of boxes that you can calculate group odds (dependent probability) for that specific set of boxes.
Not the faux 'probability has no memory' argument again, please. While the chances 'per roll' remain the same, of course, after opening enough boxes, eventually you are as good as guaranteed to hit the jackpot. Like throwing a dice, 5 billion times, hoping to have it land on '6' at least once: the chance that, at the end of rolling said dice 5 billion times, '6' didn't come up, is infinitesimal (in other words, you're pretty much guaranteed to have thrown '6' at least one). Ergo, it's true that "you not getting the top prize means your odds gradually increase with each failure."
Not quite.
If you have already opened 100 million boxes without getting a ship, that is in the past. You were very unlucky but it has no effect on your future odds.
If you are going to open 100 million boxes over the next year, then yes you can expect to receive roughly 400,000 ships. But only before you start. After opening 50 million boxes, regardless of how many ships you've won the expected return from the next 50 million boxes drops to 200,000.
So saying that because you've already opened elventy dozen boxes your odds are now higher and you're bound to get a ship soon is wrong, and is known as the gambler's fallacy.
If you have already opened N boxes without getting a ship, you can look back and say the probability of that happening was x%. But that is independent of the odds for boxes (N+1) ... (N +100). The past is past, the future is not yet written.
You are pretty much contradicting yourself. Remember the part where you said 'probability has no memory'?! Indeed, it doesn't. So, the 1:250 chance remains constant. That statistical chance, per box opened, doesn't change for the worse (or the better). So, it's simply impossible to have opened a billion lock boxes, and never having gotten the Grand Prize. Period.
Were the above to happen, then it would simply mean the 1:250 odds were not accurate at all (barring the game being rigged and such) But if the odds are indeed 1:250, then it must follow, as an absolute, that, opening enough boxes (the more times done, the more accurate), your curve will show you that selfsame 1:250 chance. And that, as a consequence, you must have received at least 1 Prize Ship after, say, a million times. Either that, or the odds were different to begin with. You can't have your cookie and eat it.
must have been my lucky night. Won 2 crossfields from 35 keys. Banked 810mil ec from selling them.
Last time I checked, a single Crossfield cost over 1.x billion EC. And you sold 2 for 810 million?! You must have done something wrong, then. The next time you're planning on making the same mistake, please contact me.
Oh I have, bought lockbox ships that I wanted off the exchange. I stopped opening them with any hope at all of a ship long ago. It'd still be nice tho, when I do open them just for lobi, to eventuallyyyy finally get a top prize too.
And were you to continue opening boxes from now until the end of time, eventually you would get a top prize. But if that isn't important to you, then why worry about it?
No I probly wouldn't. I could open a million and still never win a ship. My luck is terrible. lol
Like I said before Law of averages doesn't work that way. Based on old wiki info, the odds of getting the top prize are roughly .5% or 1/50. Granted, there is no guarantee that if you open 50 lockboxes, you would win the top prize (and probably you wouldn't).
But the way statistics works even if the odds don't change (meaning each box is a 1/50 as oppose to 1/49, 1/48, etc.) in order to have that precentage the larger the population (in this case boxes opened) the closer you get to the actual percentage.
I don't know the mathematics of it, but basically, the fact that you keep not getting the top prize means your odds gradually increase with each failure. Eventually (not sure the number, but we are talking upwards of 500 boxes probably) your odds became certain, in order to correct the percentage, at which case it drops back down.
FYI, it's actually 1 in 250 for lock boxes, 1 in 100 for R&D packs.
Probability has no memory so after opening 100 million boxes the odds for the next box are still only 1 in 250. It's only before opening a set of boxes that you can calculate group odds (dependent probability) for that specific set of boxes.
Not the faux 'probability has no memory' argument again, please. While the chances 'per roll' remain the same, of course, after opening enough boxes, eventually you are as good as guaranteed to hit the jackpot. Like throwing a dice, 5 billion times, hoping to have it land on '6' at least once: the chance that, at the end of rolling said dice 5 billion times, '6' didn't come up, is infinitesimal (in other words, you're pretty much guaranteed to have thrown '6' at least one). Ergo, it's true that "you not getting the top prize means your odds gradually increase with each failure."
Not quite.
If you have already opened 100 million boxes without getting a ship, that is in the past. You were very unlucky but it has no effect on your future odds.
If you are going to open 100 million boxes over the next year, then yes you can expect to receive roughly 400,000 ships. But only before you start. After opening 50 million boxes, regardless of how many ships you've won the expected return from the next 50 million boxes drops to 200,000.
So saying that because you've already opened elventy dozen boxes your odds are now higher and you're bound to get a ship soon is wrong, and is known as the gambler's fallacy.
If you have already opened N boxes without getting a ship, you can look back and say the probability of that happening was x%. But that is independent of the odds for boxes (N+1) ... (N +100). The past is past, the future is not yet written.
You are pretty much contradicting yourself. Remember the part where you said 'probability has no memory'?! Indeed, it doesn't. So, the 1:250 chance remains constant. That statistical chance, per box opened, doesn't change for the worse (or the better). So, it's simply impossible to have opened a billion lock boxes, and never having gotten the Grand Prize. Period.
Were the above to happen, then it would simply mean the 1:250 odds were not accurate at all (barring the game being rigged and such) But if the odds are indeed 1:250, then it must follow, as an absolute, that, opening enough boxes (the more times done, the more accurate), your curve will show you that selfsame 1:250 chance. And that, as a consequence, you must have received at least 1 Prize Ship after, say, a million times. Either that, or the odds were different to begin with. You can't have your cookie and eat it.
Still nope.
The odds are 1 in 250, but each roll is independent die roll. This is not a set of trading card packs where the foil card has to appear exactly once in every case of 250 cards.
The probability approaches 100% for N as N increases, but (before you start) the probability is still 1.0 - (0.996 ^ N). For 250 boxes that is 63.29%. For 5,000 boxes that is 99.9999998%. It never quite reaches 100% for any finite N.
It's very, very, very, ..... , very, ..... very, very unlikely to open even 5,000 boxes and never get a ship. But it's not quite impossible.
I honestly find it curious that people would open packs for the Lobi to begin with. This is just something to make oneself feel better, isn't it? Because if you actually willingly spend money to accumulate Lobi you end up paying ludicrous amounts for singular, character only items. For instance, a 50 Lobi weapon (one single item) is roughly 10 €/$. If that is really what you are going for, that's not really better than 250 €/$ for a single ship
Not really that much different than folks willing to fork over millions of dil for single character costume unlocks. Never underestimate the power of the Space Barbie. Some of those costumes and pets are worth their weight in gold!
so are some of the items, because they're just that good - like the khannon, the advanced wizard staff, i think the tzenkethi assault weapon or whatever it is
the jem'hadar minigun and voth shock cannon are also supposed to be good, but i can't personally confirm that, as is that one console with the +CritD - the elachi one or whatever set it's from, but that's more for DPS builds than a general good item
The Bioneural Infusion Circuits. It's literally part of *every* ship loadout I have. +25% CrtD, you can't beat that.
Oh I have, bought lockbox ships that I wanted off the exchange. I stopped opening them with any hope at all of a ship long ago. It'd still be nice tho, when I do open them just for lobi, to eventuallyyyy finally get a top prize too.
And were you to continue opening boxes from now until the end of time, eventually you would get a top prize. But if that isn't important to you, then why worry about it?
No I probly wouldn't. I could open a million and still never win a ship. My luck is terrible. lol
Like I said before Law of averages doesn't work that way. Based on old wiki info, the odds of getting the top prize are roughly .5% or 1/50. Granted, there is no guarantee that if you open 50 lockboxes, you would win the top prize (and probably you wouldn't).
But the way statistics works even if the odds don't change (meaning each box is a 1/50 as oppose to 1/49, 1/48, etc.) in order to have that precentage the larger the population (in this case boxes opened) the closer you get to the actual percentage.
I don't know the mathematics of it, but basically, the fact that you keep not getting the top prize means your odds gradually increase with each failure. Eventually (not sure the number, but we are talking upwards of 500 boxes probably) your odds became certain, in order to correct the percentage, at which case it drops back down.
FYI, it's actually 1 in 250 for lock boxes, 1 in 100 for R&D packs.
Probability has no memory so after opening 100 million boxes the odds for the next box are still only 1 in 250. It's only before opening a set of boxes that you can calculate group odds (dependent probability) for that specific set of boxes.
Not the faux 'probability has no memory' argument again, please. While the chances 'per roll' remain the same, of course, after opening enough boxes, eventually you are as good as guaranteed to hit the jackpot. Like throwing a dice, 5 billion times, hoping to have it land on '6' at least once: the chance that, at the end of rolling said dice 5 billion times, '6' didn't come up, is infinitesimal (in other words, you're pretty much guaranteed to have thrown '6' at least one). Ergo, it's true that "you not getting the top prize means your odds gradually increase with each failure."
Not quite.
If you have already opened 100 million boxes without getting a ship, that is in the past. You were very unlucky but it has no effect on your future odds.
If you are going to open 100 million boxes over the next year, then yes you can expect to receive roughly 400,000 ships. But only before you start. After opening 50 million boxes, regardless of how many ships you've won the expected return from the next 50 million boxes drops to 200,000.
So saying that because you've already opened elventy dozen boxes your odds are now higher and you're bound to get a ship soon is wrong, and is known as the gambler's fallacy.
If you have already opened N boxes without getting a ship, you can look back and say the probability of that happening was x%. But that is independent of the odds for boxes (N+1) ... (N +100). The past is past, the future is not yet written.
You are pretty much contradicting yourself. Remember the part where you said 'probability has no memory'?! Indeed, it doesn't. So, the 1:250 chance remains constant. That statistical chance, per box opened, doesn't change for the worse (or the better). So, it's simply impossible to have opened a billion lock boxes, and never having gotten the Grand Prize. Period.
Were the above to happen, then it would simply mean the 1:250 odds were not accurate at all (barring the game being rigged and such) But if the odds are indeed 1:250, then it must follow, as an absolute, that, opening enough boxes (the more times done, the more accurate), your curve will show you that selfsame 1:250 chance. And that, as a consequence, you must have received at least 1 Prize Ship after, say, a million times. Either that, or the odds were different to begin with. You can't have your cookie and eat it.
Still nope.
The odds are 1 in 250, but each roll is independent die roll. This is not a set of trading card packs where the foil card has to appear exactly once in every case of 250 cards.
The probability approaches 100% for N as N increases, but (before you start) the probability is still 1.0 - (0.996 ^ N). For 250 boxes that is 63.29%. For 5,000 boxes that is 99.9999998%. It never quite reaches 100% for any finite N.
Zactly! So, after having opened 5,000 lock boxes, you now have a 99.9999998% chance of being in possession of a Prize Ship.
Oh I have, bought lockbox ships that I wanted off the exchange. I stopped opening them with any hope at all of a ship long ago. It'd still be nice tho, when I do open them just for lobi, to eventuallyyyy finally get a top prize too.
And were you to continue opening boxes from now until the end of time, eventually you would get a top prize. But if that isn't important to you, then why worry about it?
No I probly wouldn't. I could open a million and still never win a ship. My luck is terrible. lol
Like I said before Law of averages doesn't work that way. Based on old wiki info, the odds of getting the top prize are roughly .5% or 1/50. Granted, there is no guarantee that if you open 50 lockboxes, you would win the top prize (and probably you wouldn't).
But the way statistics works even if the odds don't change (meaning each box is a 1/50 as oppose to 1/49, 1/48, etc.) in order to have that precentage the larger the population (in this case boxes opened) the closer you get to the actual percentage.
I don't know the mathematics of it, but basically, the fact that you keep not getting the top prize means your odds gradually increase with each failure. Eventually (not sure the number, but we are talking upwards of 500 boxes probably) your odds became certain, in order to correct the percentage, at which case it drops back down.
FYI, it's actually 1 in 250 for lock boxes, 1 in 100 for R&D packs.
Probability has no memory so after opening 100 million boxes the odds for the next box are still only 1 in 250. It's only before opening a set of boxes that you can calculate group odds (dependent probability) for that specific set of boxes.
Not the faux 'probability has no memory' argument again, please. While the chances 'per roll' remain the same, of course, after opening enough boxes, eventually you are as good as guaranteed to hit the jackpot. Like throwing a dice, 5 billion times, hoping to have it land on '6' at least once: the chance that, at the end of rolling said dice 5 billion times, '6' didn't come up, is infinitesimal (in other words, you're pretty much guaranteed to have thrown '6' at least one). Ergo, it's true that "you not getting the top prize means your odds gradually increase with each failure."
Not quite.
If you have already opened 100 million boxes without getting a ship, that is in the past. You were very unlucky but it has no effect on your future odds.
If you are going to open 100 million boxes over the next year, then yes you can expect to receive roughly 400,000 ships. But only before you start. After opening 50 million boxes, regardless of how many ships you've won the expected return from the next 50 million boxes drops to 200,000.
So saying that because you've already opened elventy dozen boxes your odds are now higher and you're bound to get a ship soon is wrong, and is known as the gambler's fallacy.
If you have already opened N boxes without getting a ship, you can look back and say the probability of that happening was x%. But that is independent of the odds for boxes (N+1) ... (N +100). The past is past, the future is not yet written.
You are pretty much contradicting yourself. Remember the part where you said 'probability has no memory'?! Indeed, it doesn't. So, the 1:250 chance remains constant. That statistical chance, per box opened, doesn't change for the worse (or the better). So, it's simply impossible to have opened a billion lock boxes, and never having gotten the Grand Prize. Period.
Were the above to happen, then it would simply mean the 1:250 odds were not accurate at all (barring the game being rigged and such) But if the odds are indeed 1:250, then it must follow, as an absolute, that, opening enough boxes (the more times done, the more accurate), your curve will show you that selfsame 1:250 chance. And that, as a consequence, you must have received at least 1 Prize Ship after, say, a million times. Either that, or the odds were different to begin with. You can't have your cookie and eat it.
Still nope.
The odds are 1 in 250, but each roll is independent die roll. This is not a set of trading card packs where the foil card has to appear exactly once in every case of 250 cards.
The probability approaches 100% for N as N increases, but (before you start) the probability is still 1.0 - (0.996 ^ N). For 250 boxes that is 63.29%. For 5,000 boxes that is 99.9999998%. It never quite reaches 100% for any finite N.
Zactly! So, after having opened 5,000 lock boxes, you now have a 99.9999998% chance of being in possession of a Prize Ship.
I rest my case.
Sure, but after opening 4,999 and NOT getting a ship, your odds for box number 5,000 are still only 1 in 250 not 99.999%
You guys are fascinating the lengths you'll go to with these debates.
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Oh I have, bought lockbox ships that I wanted off the exchange. I stopped opening them with any hope at all of a ship long ago. It'd still be nice tho, when I do open them just for lobi, to eventuallyyyy finally get a top prize too.
And were you to continue opening boxes from now until the end of time, eventually you would get a top prize. But if that isn't important to you, then why worry about it?
No I probly wouldn't. I could open a million and still never win a ship. My luck is terrible. lol
Like I said before Law of averages doesn't work that way. Based on old wiki info, the odds of getting the top prize are roughly .5% or 1/50. Granted, there is no guarantee that if you open 50 lockboxes, you would win the top prize (and probably you wouldn't).
But the way statistics works even if the odds don't change (meaning each box is a 1/50 as oppose to 1/49, 1/48, etc.) in order to have that precentage the larger the population (in this case boxes opened) the closer you get to the actual percentage.
I don't know the mathematics of it, but basically, the fact that you keep not getting the top prize means your odds gradually increase with each failure. Eventually (not sure the number, but we are talking upwards of 500 boxes probably) your odds became certain, in order to correct the percentage, at which case it drops back down.
FYI, it's actually 1 in 250 for lock boxes, 1 in 100 for R&D packs.
Probability has no memory so after opening 100 million boxes the odds for the next box are still only 1 in 250. It's only before opening a set of boxes that you can calculate group odds (dependent probability) for that specific set of boxes.
Not the faux 'probability has no memory' argument again, please. While the chances 'per roll' remain the same, of course, after opening enough boxes, eventually you are as good as guaranteed to hit the jackpot. Like throwing a dice, 5 billion times, hoping to have it land on '6' at least once: the chance that, at the end of rolling said dice 5 billion times, '6' didn't come up, is infinitesimal (in other words, you're pretty much guaranteed to have thrown '6' at least one). Ergo, it's true that "you not getting the top prize means your odds gradually increase with each failure."
Not quite.
If you have already opened 100 million boxes without getting a ship, that is in the past. You were very unlucky but it has no effect on your future odds.
If you are going to open 100 million boxes over the next year, then yes you can expect to receive roughly 400,000 ships. But only before you start. After opening 50 million boxes, regardless of how many ships you've won the expected return from the next 50 million boxes drops to 200,000.
So saying that because you've already opened elventy dozen boxes your odds are now higher and you're bound to get a ship soon is wrong, and is known as the gambler's fallacy.
If you have already opened N boxes without getting a ship, you can look back and say the probability of that happening was x%. But that is independent of the odds for boxes (N+1) ... (N +100). The past is past, the future is not yet written.
You are pretty much contradicting yourself. Remember the part where you said 'probability has no memory'?! Indeed, it doesn't. So, the 1:250 chance remains constant. That statistical chance, per box opened, doesn't change for the worse (or the better). So, it's simply impossible to have opened a billion lock boxes, and never having gotten the Grand Prize. Period.
Were the above to happen, then it would simply mean the 1:250 odds were not accurate at all (barring the game being rigged and such) But if the odds are indeed 1:250, then it must follow, as an absolute, that, opening enough boxes (the more times done, the more accurate), your curve will show you that selfsame 1:250 chance. And that, as a consequence, you must have received at least 1 Prize Ship after, say, a million times. Either that, or the odds were different to begin with. You can't have your cookie and eat it.
Still nope.
The odds are 1 in 250, but each roll is independent die roll. This is not a set of trading card packs where the foil card has to appear exactly once in every case of 250 cards.
The probability approaches 100% for N as N increases, but (before you start) the probability is still 1.0 - (0.996 ^ N). For 250 boxes that is 63.29%. For 5,000 boxes that is 99.9999998%. It never quite reaches 100% for any finite N.
Zactly! So, after having opened 5,000 lock boxes, you now have a 99.9999998% chance of being in possession of a Prize Ship.
I rest my case.
Sure, but after opening 4,999 and NOT getting a ship, your odds for box number 5,000 are still only 1 in 250 not 99.999%
> @meimeitoo said:
> ussvaliant#6064 wrote: »
>
> must have been my lucky night. Won 2 crossfields from 35 keys. Banked 810mil ec from selling them.
>
>
>
>
>
> Last time I checked, a single Crossfield cost over 1.x billion EC. And you sold 2 for 810 million?! You must have done something wrong, then. The next time you're planning on making the same mistake, please contact me.
Last I checked (as in just this moment) the Crossfield is running at 395 Million.
Wow! It must have dropped in price significantly then!
Comments
I HAD to have the Kelvin Timeline Klingon outfit for the ridges with the bling.
That is why I opened the batch of lockboxes for Lobi. And, yes, it was fun.
https://sto.gamepedia.com/Outfit_Box_-_Kelvin_Timeline_Klingon_Regalia
“Tell me and I forget. Teach me and I remember. Involve me and I learn.” -- Benjamin Franklin
Great advice until everyone does that and no one is opening boxes.
I open 10-30 boxes each time a new lockbox comes out. I have never gotten a ship from a lockbox & I've been playing since before lockboxes. I don't want to do the math to figure out how many keys I've used.
If you can accept not getting any lobi or consolation prizes, just follow the golden rule as mentioned earlier: sell keys for EC, buy ship for EC, 100% chance of success.
Oh I have, bought lockbox ships that I wanted off the exchange. I stopped opening them with any hope at all of a ship long ago. It'd still be nice tho, when I do open them just for lobi, to eventuallyyyy finally get a top prize too.
No I probly wouldn't. I could open a million and still never win a ship. My luck is terrible. lol
Like I said before Law of averages doesn't work that way. Based on old wiki info, the odds of getting the top prize are roughly .5% or 1/50. Granted, there is no guarantee that if you open 50 lockboxes, you would win the top prize (and probably you wouldn't).
But the way statistics works even if the odds don't change (meaning each box is a 1/50 as oppose to 1/49, 1/48, etc.) in order to have that precentage the larger the population (in this case boxes opened) the closer you get to the actual percentage.
I don't know the mathematics of it, but basically, the fact that you keep not getting the top prize means your odds gradually increase with each failure. Eventually (not sure the number, but we are talking upwards of 500 boxes probably) your odds became certain, in order to correct the percentage, at which case it drops back down.
FYI, it's actually 1 in 250 for lock boxes, 1 in 100 for R&D packs.
Probability has no memory so after opening 100 million boxes the odds for the next box are still only 1 in 250. It's only before opening a set of boxes that you can calculate group odds (dependent probability) for that specific set of boxes.
Not the faux 'probability has no memory' argument again, please. While the chances 'per roll' remain the same, of course, after opening enough boxes, eventually you are as good as guaranteed to hit the jackpot. Like throwing a dice, 5 billion times, hoping to have it land on '6' at least once: the chance that, at the end of rolling said dice 5 billion times, '6' didn't come up, is infinitesimal (in other words, you're pretty much guaranteed to have thrown '6' at least one). Ergo, it's true that "you not getting the top prize means your odds gradually increase with each failure."
As stated:
Yes, technically the odds are always 1/250. But the way statistics works, eventually you have to get to the "true probably" the more you get. So yes, after opening so many boxes (and I have no clue what the number is) you HAVE to eventually get the top prize, and it isn't going to be some number like 1 million or 1 billion or whatever. It is statiscally impossible to constantly open a lockbox and NEVER get the top prize. It doesn't work that way. So yes, the longer you go with a Failure, the more likely you are to get a "Win".
However the reverse is also true. If you say open 4 lockboxes and all four are the top prize, you are more likely with each "Success" to get a failure. Eventually the odds have to even out. That is how statistics works.
Not quite.
If you have already opened 100 million boxes without getting a ship, that is in the past. You were very unlucky but it has no effect on your future odds.
If you are going to open 100 million boxes over the next year, then yes you can expect to receive roughly 400,000 ships. But only before you start. After opening 50 million boxes, regardless of how many ships you've won the expected return from the next 50 million boxes drops to 200,000.
So saying that because you've already opened elventy dozen boxes your odds are now higher and you're bound to get a ship soon is wrong, and is known as the gambler's fallacy.
If you have already opened N boxes without getting a ship, you can look back and say the probability of that happening was x%. But that is independent of the odds for boxes (N+1) ... (N +100). The past is past, the future is not yet written.
Indeed. The 'billion' I used was just an exaggerated example, of course, to illustrate that, if you keep opening lockboxes, the chance that you have't gotten the Grand Prize by then, has become as good as impossible. So, for lock boxes, that moment has not arrived after just 250 'throws'. Not even after opening your 1,000th box in a row (that would still be a case of 'bad luck'). After 4,000 times you'd probably raise an eyebrow or two. But after, say, 10,000 'throws' it's probably safe to say something is fishy.
The faux 'probability has no memory' argument, btw, is stemming from what is essentially a strawman argument: namely imputing that people who say 'There is 1:6 chance to hit 6 when rolling a dice' assume a time-component. And we tend to talk about those matters in terms of time too; like 'After 1,000 rolls.' It were probably better to say 'When rolling 6 dice at the same time, there's a 1:6 chance one has landed on 6.' Humand think pretty linear, though.
Hello rubber banding my old friend, time to bounce around the battlezone again, where are all my bug reports going?, out of love with this game I am falling, As Cryptic fail to acknowledge a problem exists, Shakes an angry fist, And from Support all I'm hearing are the sounds of silence.
You are pretty much contradicting yourself. Remember the part where you said 'probability has no memory'?! Indeed, it doesn't. So, the 1:250 chance remains constant. That statistical chance, per box opened, doesn't change for the worse (or the better). So, it's simply impossible to have opened a billion lock boxes, and never having gotten the Grand Prize. Period.
Were the above to happen, then it would simply mean the 1:250 odds were not accurate at all (barring the game being rigged and such) But if the odds are indeed 1:250, then it must follow, as an absolute, that, opening enough boxes (the more times done, the more accurate), your curve will show you that selfsame 1:250 chance. And that, as a consequence, you must have received at least 1 Prize Ship after, say, a million times. Either that, or the odds were different to begin with. You can't have your cookie and eat it.
Last time I checked, a single Crossfield cost over 1.x billion EC. And you sold 2 for 810 million?! You must have done something wrong, then. The next time you're planning on making the same mistake, please contact me.
Still nope.
The odds are 1 in 250, but each roll is independent die roll. This is not a set of trading card packs where the foil card has to appear exactly once in every case of 250 cards.
The probability approaches 100% for N as N increases, but (before you start) the probability is still 1.0 - (0.996 ^ N). For 250 boxes that is 63.29%. For 5,000 boxes that is 99.9999998%. It never quite reaches 100% for any finite N.
It's very, very, very, ..... , very, ..... very, very unlikely to open even 5,000 boxes and never get a ship. But it's not quite impossible.
The Bioneural Infusion Circuits. It's literally part of *every* ship loadout I have. +25% CrtD, you can't beat that.
Zactly! So, after having opened 5,000 lock boxes, you now have a 99.9999998% chance of being in possession of a Prize Ship.
I rest my case.
Sure, but after opening 4,999 and NOT getting a ship, your odds for box number 5,000 are still only 1 in 250 not 99.999%
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On that we certainly agree.
Wow! It must have dropped in price significantly then!
https://xkcd.com/386/
Duty Calls.