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TOS PROMO PACK TRIBBLE RESULTS! TEN THOUSAND (10000) PACKS OPENED!
tacticalrook
Member Posts: 810 Arc User
10000 packs were assembled, and all of them opened.
The results:
10000 packs opened
114 23rd Century Tier 6 Ships dropped
Odds based on this test, 114/10000.
Documentation below:
To ensure all ships remained in the inventory, all Lobi were discarded, all R&D packs were consumed, all R&D weekend bonus packs were consumed, and all R&D items were discarded.
Logging set with:
Log parsed with:
Parsed log:
Parsed Log Link
The results:
10000 packs opened
114 23rd Century Tier 6 Ships dropped
Odds based on this test, 114/10000.
Documentation below:
To ensure all ships remained in the inventory, all Lobi were discarded, all R&D packs were consumed, all R&D weekend bonus packs were consumed, and all R&D items were discarded.
Logging set with:
/chatlog 1
Log parsed with:
$ grep -E ': Lobi|: Special|: Research & Development Pack' Chat.Log > tos_promo_data.txt
Parsed log:
Parsed Log Link
/channel_join grind
Post edited by tacticalrook on
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Join Date: August 29th 2010
Based on that, the odds of getting at least one ship (before you open any packs) are:
12 packs = 11.4%
40 packs = 33.1%
80 packs = 55.2%
120 packs = 70.1%
In short: DO NOT OPEN PACKS AND EXPECT TO GET A SHIP!
If you are willing to spend $150+ to get one, buy keys or packs and sell them on the exchange for EC. Use the EC to buy a ship.
Remember to buy the EC cap unlock first if you are not a subscriber.
Sell packs or keys slowly and carefully. If you rush you might accidentally sell a 10-pack for the cost of 1 which will hurt. A lot.
"Last Engage! Magical Girl Origami-san" is in print! Now with three times more rainbows.
Support the "Armored Unicorn" vehicle initiative today!
Thanks for Harajuku. Now let's get a real "Magical Girl" costume!
Sent.
thnks
What does God need with a starship?
But seriously, thanks @tacticalrook for doing this for the STO community.
God's work is what the infantry does, and this is not it.
As an 11-B, I concur.
They make a wondrous mess of things. Brave amateurs, they do their part.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
Helluva conspiracy theory that a dev environment is actually for psyops. Please resume taking your meds.
You could put the rest on the Tribble Exchange, for 1 Symbolic EC
@linuxknight
Oh and how long did it take to copy toon, transfer the pack to another tribble toon, and re-copy your toon to build up 10k R&D packs? o.O
As to psyops, there are certain folks that trade in that all the time. Why I can remember a Thread where the wicked were going to be punished so it was made to look like an Account that had between 25 and 30 Jem'hadar Attack Ships stored on it was deleted. Of course despite protestations to the contrary, we all knew that was done on Tribble.
I do not recall if it had the intended effect of jacking up the sales price of that ship.
l don't know.
l really don't know what l'm about to say, except l have a feeling about it.
That l must repeat the words that come without my knowledge.'
Edit: missed the tribble bit. Was already wondering why anyone would spend that amount on boxes.
Norway and Yeager dammit... I still want my Typhoon and Jupiter though.
JJ Trek The Kelvin Timeline is just Trek and it's fully canon... get over it. But I still prefer TAR.
#TASforSTO
'...I can tell you that we're not in the military and that we intend no harm to the whales.' Kirk: The Voyage Home
'Starfleet is not a military organisation. Its purpose is exploration.' Picard: Peak Performance
'This is clearly a military operation. Is that what we are now? Because I thought we were explorers!' Scotty: Into Darkness
'...The Federation. Starfleet. We're not a military agency.' Scotty: Beyond
'I'm not a soldier anymore. I'm an engineer.' Miles O'Brien: Empok Nor
'...Starfleet could use you... It's a peacekeeping and humanitarian armada...' Admiral Pike: Star Trek
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The odds of getting one do not change regardless of how many packs you buy. It will still be 1% even if you open a million packs, you still might not get one.
Yep, it's like throwing a 20 sided die. The odds of getting, say a 15, is 1 out of 20. It does NOT mean that in every 20 throws, one will get a 15. One can chuck it 20 times, and never get that 15.
He wrote "before you open any packs" and then his statement is true. If you buy more tickets your chances to not win decrease, but only for this ovservation. The chances to win the prize do not change, as you said correctly.
That's the thing with statistics and probabilities - one must be careful and completely aware of what you're reading. Not every stastic is helpful to you. In this case I find it misleading that people often cite that chances of not winning decrease when you partake more often as it has no effect on the chance of having a succesful draw. I'd define this argument, which is pointless for everyone entering, as a form of the gambler's fallacy (it's not, strictly speaking - it becomes however when people misinterpret the numbers and think they can improve their odds).
That is correct. Int his case however the poster wrote about a different observation. The chances to throw a 15 on a fair, 20-sided dice is 1/20. Someone who throws the dice x+1 times however has a lower chance of not throwing a 15 than one who throws only x times. It describes the odds before throwing the dice or opening the packs. This information, although mathematically sound, is completely irrelevant to the draw however and is thus misleading. People are prone to misinterpret it as having a better chance to win when they buy more tickets/throw the dice more often.
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The going rate most of this weekend (unless you got lucky and saw one pop on the Exchange for sale at $750 million, but that's been VERY rare - only one of my Fleetmates goy one that way) was from 900 million to 950 million EC.
I got my T6 Connie for about 880 million <-- based on the Exchange going prices for these resource packs and master Keys; which was a VERY good deal on the first night, from a kind person. In the end the actual deal was 600 million EC + 53 Master Keys directly to him.
If I include the Zen I gambled away - and the $200 I paid to Cryptic for the 23000 Zen - in the end my ONE T6 TOS era Connie ended up costing me about $169.50, Which is A LOT of money for an item like this. BUT, I wanted it for this game, and it was my choice to spend it or not, and spend it I did, and I'm okay with the decision I made or I wouldn't have done it.
That said, I do think the absolute LIMITED TIME aspect for this SUCKS HARD; and really punishes TOS fans who want an end game version of the original Star Trek TV series Starship/Constitution Class. if it were in a Lockbox, such fans would know they'd see it offered again in an updated Infinity Lockbox after some time. BUT, with the way this promotion was handled, it's a little over TWO WEEKS only - with no guarantee that we'll ever see this ship (or the D7 or T'liss versions) offered EVER AGAIN.
(And yes, while if you have/keep a Promotion Box acquired during that period, it will still have a chance to drop a ship; all that means is the Promotion Boxes with this chance will go for a HIGH EC price themselves once the promo period ends; and that's an even more screwed up situation for any TOS fans who missed this entirely; or failed to get one during the promo period.
^^^
This is the real place where CBS/Cryptic/PWE is saying to TOS Connie fans -- "Bend over; and don't ask for any lube either."
For me - now that I've gotten both a T6 TV series Connie and a JJ-Prise Connie; there isn't another Star Trek franchise ship they could put in that would make me spend real money on this game -- but they got me to throw $400 total between this, the JJ-Prise and the Vengeance; so in addition to the $340 or so I spent for the LTS (including the Box as this was before the game went F2P) when this game firt launch as a subscription based game, they got a good chuck of change from my wallet - which going forward they won't get any more.
If I subtract the LTS stpend I've received to this period (78 months since public launch); they've made a net profit of $350 from me at that time.
That works out to about $4.50 a month if I spread it over the past 78 months - so if they HAD kept to a subscription model and NOT offered a LTS - even with the times I probably would have unsubbed (say about 12 months worth over the past 78) - they still would have made more money with me from a sub.
I guess all that says is; Even with what I had spent, I'm probably not a 'Whale' in Cryptic's eyes.
PWE ARC Drone says: "Your STO forum community as you have known it is ended...Display names are irrelevant...Any further sense of community is irrelevant...Resistance is futile...You will be assimilated..."
PRetty much. Hell, we don't even know what is needed for that blinged out Ferengi ship. o.o
Man, Cryptic made a LOT of money off my fleet these last 2 months.
Please enable us to buy a token with Zen to faction change a 25th Century FED to a TOS FED.
Yeah, no TRIBBLE
Hell, Last month they finally got me to start opening Lockboxes (Which I had never done and swiore I'd never do unless until it was for a T6 Connie.)
Then this month I bought and opened R&D Promo Packs for the first time.
I will say though - now that I have both T6 Connies (a JJ-Prise and also my beloved T6 (endgame TOS era) Connie that I've wanted in this game from DAY ONE - there's not another ship or item they could offer that would make me bother with Lockboxes or Promo Packs EVER AGAIN!
And I've said it before, but I'll repeat it:
I also think the whole 'limited time with no guarantee the ship (the T6 TOS era version Connie) will ever be offered again soon, if at all' -- REALLY SUCKS HARD! <--- And given the iconic nature of the ship the fact they didn't put it in an actual Lockbox so it could one day appear in an Infinity Lockbox is a real slap in the face to TOS era fans who either can't afford what's needed to come into STO AFTER this Promotion! R&D Box event ends.
PWE ARC Drone says: "Your STO forum community as you have known it is ended...Display names are irrelevant...Any further sense of community is irrelevant...Resistance is futile...You will be assimilated..."