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The Numbers - Understanding Why

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    neoakiraiineoakiraii Member Posts: 7,468 Arc User
    edited October 2014
    Let me check your numbers with some Math
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    erei1erei1 Member Posts: 4,081 Arc User
    edited October 2014
    Your numbers are probably off by a huge margin. A lot of people are using the "old" launcher, like myself, since it kept updating itself, and still works, outside ARC or Steam. I just never stopped using it, and will never stop until it doesn't work anymroe.

    If I can play something without using a 3rd party program (be it steam or another), I will. And I think a lot of people think like that. That's not especially because it's using a lot of my PC, but that's just because I don't like having several program running for basically nothing. Let's face it, with Steam I can at least chat with my friends, but with ARC, uplay, origin.... I can't do anything interesting.


    Sure it's not WOW. And I don't know for GW2, since I don't think we have the numbers. But STO makes money. A lot. And they have a lot of people playing.
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    tacofangstacofangs Member Posts: 2,951 Cryptic Developer
    edited October 2014
    That steam link is just reporting what we call "CCU" (ConCurrent Users). i.e. people who are all on, playing the game at the same time.

    That is not the same as total active users, or what we call "Daily Uniques." i.e. the total number of separate accounts who logged in at some point in the last 24 hours.

    There are many, many people who play the game, but they are not all online at the same time as everyone else. WoW is currently sitting at roughly 7.5 million subscribers. That doesn't mean they have 7.5 million people playing the game at any given moment.

    No, we are not at the same level of active players as WoW, but we still have a pretty significant playerbase (total active players within the last 30 days).

    As for Champs, yes, they are a much smaller game than STO. Fewer players, fewer devs. Why is it still running? Because it's still profitable. It may not be making the same amount as STO or Neverwinter, but if a game is still making more money than it's costing you, then why would you shut it down?
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    tacofangstacofangs Member Posts: 2,951 Cryptic Developer
    edited October 2014
    And just for Ships and Tribbles, here's a few other MMOs on Steam Charts.


    Neverwinter
    Champions
    Eve
    Rift
    Everquest (Yes, it's still running)
    Firefall
    Planetside 2
    Elder Scrolls Online
    Defiance
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    dalolorndalolorn Member Posts: 3,655 Arc User
    edited October 2014
    tacofangs wrote: »
    It may not be making the same amount as STO or Neverwinter, but if a game is still making more money than it's costing you, then why would you shut it down?
    valoreah wrote: »
    I wish NCSoft thought like this.

    Gee, I was going to comment on CoH's demise too. :)

    Not that I ever heard of the game outside these forums. :P

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    hausofmartokhausofmartok Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited October 2014
    tacofangs wrote: »
    That steam link is just reporting what we call "CCU" (ConCurrent Users). i.e. people who are all on, playing the game at the same time.

    That is not the same as total active users, or what we call "Daily Uniques." i.e. the total number of separate accounts who logged in at some point in the last 24 hours.

    There are many, many people who play the game, but they are not all online at the same time as everyone else. WoW is currently sitting at roughly 7.5 million subscribers. That doesn't mean they have 7.5 million people playing the game at any given moment.

    No, we are not at the same level of active players as WoW, but we still have a pretty significant playerbase (total active players within the last 30 days).

    As for Champs, yes, they are a much smaller game than STO. Fewer players, fewer devs. Why is it still running? Because it's still profitable. It may not be making the same amount as STO or Neverwinter, but if a game is still making more money than it's costing you, then why would you shut it down?
    Thanks for clarifying that Taco. Anyone who says my numbers are TRIBBLE, well add something to the discussion don't just say "derp OP is dumb derp derp". It would be great to know some official stats on how many people play the game. Is there any way to know Taco?
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    captfabulouscaptfabulous Member Posts: 292 Arc User
    edited October 2014
    tacofangs wrote: »
    ... if a game is still making more money than it's costing you, then why would you shut it down?

    And that's the $64,000 question that NCSoft has yet to answer regarding City of Heroes.
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    mikeflmikefl Member Posts: 861 Arc User
    edited October 2014
    Steam charts is not indicative of the number of players in STO as most players launch the game directly from the launcher or from ARC. What I like about Steam Charts is the ability to see a trend that could be applied to the player base. I can tell from steam charts that STO has more players playing currently than they do during their busy time over the last two years (exluding LoR). It allows us a glimpse into the change in player numbers and you can match those up to events in STO.

    Players who have had this game since before free to play aren't using Steam and probably not using ARC either. If I had to guess I would say Steam probably represents 10% of the players not 50%... I could probably sit at ESD and count the players in the instances and get to the steam numbers alone. There really is no reason to use Steam unless you use their social network stuff. I think its just another way for STO to get in front of gamers and pick up a few more players.
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    drasymdrasym Member Posts: 36 Arc User
    edited October 2014
    Remember my old poly sci professor used to say;


    "Figures don't lie but liars sure do figure"





    NOT pointing at anyone here. Just saying.
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    theanothernametheanothername Member Posts: 1,504 Arc User
    edited October 2014
    Might be relevant info for Bethesda singleplayer games or similar companys that are steams personal TRIBBLE but for games that are not just not tied to steam but also where released long before they got on steam?
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    dragonsbrethrendragonsbrethren Member Posts: 1,854 Arc User
    edited October 2014
    tacofangs wrote: »
    for Ships and Tribbles

    Have to work this into everyday use...
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    crypticarmsmancrypticarmsman Member Posts: 4,113 Arc User
    edited October 2014
    tacofangs wrote: »
    And just for Ships and Tribbles, here's a few other MMOs on Steam Charts.


    Neverwinter
    Champions
    Eve
    Rift
    Everquest (Yes, it's still running)
    Firefall
    Planetside 2
    Elder Scrolls Online
    Defiance

    I don't (and never have) use Steam or ANY other third party add on to launch any MMO I've played (and I've been playing MMOs since 1999 starting with EQ in its heyday.) That said, if Steam is a small microcosm into possible playing trends, it seems STO is doing very well with regard to population and retention these days.

    I was surprised it's doing better (on Steam at least) then EVE, Rift and ESO, especially since ESO launched recently, and seemed to be getting ok reviews after the last few patches. Personally, I'm amazed anyone would use a third party client to launch anything as ANY extra service or app steals memory and CPU cycles; and no matter what my system specs, I want the best performance I can get on any game I'm running (but that's me.)
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    tenkaritenkari Member Posts: 2,906 Arc User
    edited October 2014
    And that's the $64,000 question that NCSoft has yet to answer regarding City of Heroes.

    Simple answer: They werent making enough money altogether, and so they shut their lowest earning game down, despite the fact it was still earning money. thus they could get tax breaks to help boost their profits for the year.

    and no one was willing to put up what NCSoft felt paragon studios and CoH were worth apparently.
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    starkaosstarkaos Member Posts: 11,556 Arc User
    edited October 2014
    Amazing how many thought of using City of Heroes' demise in regards to Tacofang's post including me.
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    zeuxidemus001zeuxidemus001 Member Posts: 3,357 Arc User
    edited October 2014
    tenkari wrote: »
    Simple answer: They werent making enough money altogether, and so they shut their lowest earning game down, despite the fact it was still earning money. thus they could get tax breaks to help boost their profits for the year.

    and no one was willing to put up what NCSoft felt paragon studios and CoH were worth apparently.

    Some people just aren't cut out for this industry and we have many many many things to choose from to see this as well as NCSoft clearly saw and dealt with it.
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    duncanidaho11duncanidaho11 Member Posts: 7,867 Arc User
    edited October 2014
    Thanks for clarifying that Taco. Anyone who says my numbers are TRIBBLE, well add something to the discussion don't just say "derp OP is dumb derp derp". It would be great to know some official stats on how many people play the game. Is there any way to know Taco?

    They certainly have that information but I can understand why its never been shared.

    People suck at statistics but are very capable when it comes to arguing. If you put out the numbers this month, and again next month, whatever difference there is (or is not) will be used to criticize or justify any updates or changes that have been made to the game over that period.

    Never mind what you should have learned in Stats 101, they'll make correlations and stand by them (because numbers) to the general ruin of even this level of forum discourse (trust me, it can get MUCH worse if those involved also believe they have a provable justifcation in addition to their mere god-like insight into the fabric of the universe, ie. opinion.)

    It basically helps no one except maniacs (and there's already enough to the forum format to enable them.)
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    arilouskiffarilouskiff Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited October 2014
    tacofangs wrote: »
    , but if a game is still making more money than it's costing you, then why would you shut it down?

    Ask NCsoft /still not bitter.
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    pottsey5gpottsey5g Member Posts: 4,177 Arc User
    edited October 2014
    tacofangs wrote: »
    And just for Ships and Tribbles, here's a few other MMOs on Steam Charts.


    Neverwinter
    Champions
    Eve
    Rift
    Everquest (Yes, it's still running)
    Firefall
    Planetside 2
    Elder Scrolls Online
    Defiance

    Those numbers for Eve are over a factor of 20x out once you factor in ConCurrent none Steam players. Is Sto the same?

    For example Steam says 1,372 players online for Eve, 1603 peak in past 24hours. ConCurrent players outside of Steam is 35,400+ players are online
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    jeffel82jeffel82 Member Posts: 2,075 Arc User
    edited October 2014
    pottsey5g wrote: »
    Those numbers for Eve are over a factor of 20x out once you factor in ConCurrent none Steam players. Is Sto the same?

    For example Steam says 1,372 players online for Eve, 1603 peak in past 24hours. ConCurrent players outside of Steam is 35,400+ players are online

    Yes, that was tacofangs' point. The Steam numbers are neither accurate nor terribly informative.
    You're right. The work here is very important.
    tacofangs wrote: »
    ...talking to players is like being a mall Santa. Everyone immediately wants to tell you all of the things they want, and you are absolutely powerless to deliver 99% of them.
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    pottsey5gpottsey5g Member Posts: 4,177 Arc User
    edited October 2014
    jeffel82 wrote: »
    Yes, that was tacofangs' point. The Steam numbers are neither accurate nor terribly informative.

    I know but if he tells us STO is a factor of 20x or x30 out like Eve we can estimate how many players are in STO. Assuming Sto is like Eve we are talking 40,000 players at the same time and over 500,000 unique active players.
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    jeffel82jeffel82 Member Posts: 2,075 Arc User
    edited October 2014
    pottsey5g wrote: »
    I know but if he tells us STO is a factor of 20x or x30 out like Eve we can estimate how many players are in STO. Assuming Sto is like Eve we are talking 40,000 players at the same time and over 500,000 unique active players.

    As far as I know, most companies consider that proprietary information, and we're not likely to see reps of that company help us to determine those numbers, estimates or otherwise.
    You're right. The work here is very important.
    tacofangs wrote: »
    ...talking to players is like being a mall Santa. Everyone immediately wants to tell you all of the things they want, and you are absolutely powerless to deliver 99% of them.
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    bobbydazlersbobbydazlers Member Posts: 4,534 Arc User
    edited October 2014
    Understanding why, what? What is your point? What do you wish to discuss? The longevity of STO?


    Even if you knew the exact number of players it would not be enough to determine anything. You need to know how many are subscribers, you need to know how much money each one spends in the game. And that's just income. How about expenses? How much does the STO team cost? Infrastructure expediture? Development budget? Etc, etc, etc...

    baudl wrote: »
    sorry, but that graph just represents a fraction of the actual playerbase. You can easily double or even tripple that number.
    And a game like STO can be profitable with an active playerbase of only 30k-40k.

    just before STO went f2p it had 150k SUBSCRIBERS according to MMO data...it is save to assume that this number only increased with f2p going live.
    How it developed since 2012 i haven't found any data, other than the official cryptic number of 2 million plus registered accounts. Even if only 10% of those are actually active it would be more than enough to keep this game profitable.

    these and any other comments in this vein are quite correct however I think what the OP is pointing out is if you compare it to Champions Online page here > http://steamcharts.com/search?q=Champions+Online
    you will see that there is a lot of life in the old dog yet.

    When I think about everything we've been through together,

    maybe it's not the destination that matters, maybe it's the journey,

     and if that journey takes a little longer,

    so we can do something we all believe in,

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    ddesjardinsddesjardins Member Posts: 3,056 Media Corps
    edited October 2014
    phoenicius wrote: »
    how do you know this?


    Math. If it was 50% or higher the game would not be financially viable. Your biggest expense is the team, and those numbers I know.

    And before you get all twisted - you can see salary ranges for every position we've been told about online, with regional variations.
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    tacofangstacofangs Member Posts: 2,951 Cryptic Developer
    edited October 2014
    Thanks for clarifying that Taco. Anyone who says my numbers are TRIBBLE, well add something to the discussion don't just say "derp OP is dumb derp derp". It would be great to know some official stats on how many people play the game. Is there any way to know Taco?

    Unfortunately, that's pretty much always a company secret, for every game.

    I will echo what others have noticed on our steam charts page, we're actually doing better now than we were a year or two ago. More people playing on average (not just at the spikes of new content).

    Which is why I find Doom™ posts kind of hilarious.


    As for Steam itself, I will say that I play through Steam, and have pretty much any PC game I can, through Steam. Yes, it is hypothetically using up some CPU cycles while i play, but it's not been noticeable for me. I like that I have a repository of all of the games I own, in one place. I can delete them today, and redownload them later if I choose. I can see what games my friends are playing, and join in with them fairly easily. I like their store, I like their sales, and I like that I can give my friends games that I think they might like (even if their gift system is a bit wonky.)

    It may not be for everyone, but I'm quite fond of Steam, and use it pretty much every day.
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    kozar2kozar2 Member Posts: 602 Arc User
    edited October 2014
    tacofangs wrote: »
    I will say that I play through Steam...I'm quite fond of Steam


    Shhh don't let HAL, I mean ARC hear you say that.
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    lystentlystent Member Posts: 1,019
    edited October 2014
    tacofangs wrote: »
    Which is why I find Doom™ posts kind of hilarious.

    What I find amusing about this thread, is that if what the OP assumed was true, there wouldn't even be a game to talk about.
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    kamenriderzero1kamenriderzero1 Member Posts: 906 Arc User
    edited October 2014
    so can we add "using Steam numbers to start a doom thread" to the FTC?
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    vesterengvestereng Member Posts: 2,252 Arc User
    edited October 2014
    Would it be more interesting to see amount of money spent by players total and how many players spend less or above x,y, z?


    Number of accounts on per 24 hours what good are they if they don't spend any money.

    Someone throw 300$ at lockbox keys to never play again is more like it.

    You'd have to see all of it, all the stats, but of course most interestingly the amount of money coming in.
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