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I've just discovered something.
cbrjwrr
Member Posts: 2,782 Arc User
Not sure where to put this, but I believe it at least needs to be pointed out - Normally, when someone wants to buy Dil in exchange for Zen, they go to the Dil/Zen exchange.
This however, is a massive devaluer of what Zen is truly worth in Dil - To the point where I don't actually want to post the numbers or methods because of the fact it would send Dil per Zen back above 200 Dil per Zen.
Should I post it?
This however, is a massive devaluer of what Zen is truly worth in Dil - To the point where I don't actually want to post the numbers or methods because of the fact it would send Dil per Zen back above 200 Dil per Zen.
Should I post it?
Post edited by cbrjwrr on
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R.I.P. Leonard Nimoy
Is this a case of "I know something I won't tell" thread??
Tempting, but it really could be very bad, I don't want to be the guy who whacked the price of Dil up by maybe 20 Dil per Zen in a single night...
Then may I ask what's the point of making this thread, apart from the possibility of trolling?
Maybe he thinks he can manipulate a "run" on the exchange. Or perhaps he really thinks he's found an exploit that thousands of other players hadn't considered...
Yeah, that's all fine - but why even start a thread if he's not about to say what he found out?
Simple - I first went through the numbers, and it looked like Dil per Zen was only under valued by 10 Dil per Zen, so I thought I should post it, as owing to how time intensive the method is, you could probably earn more money for Zen quicker anyway.
Turns out my earlier numbers were wrong, and even though the method remains severely long, it is closer to 50 Dil per Zen.
Nevermind, Ill post it - it will take forever for anyone to do anything serious with it anyway.
A Key's worth of Zen sold on the Dil/Zen Exchange is 18 112.5 Dil. (K-A = 112.5 x 161)
However - a master key, right now, sells for 2 616 666 EC. Contraband sells for 44 000 EC.
This means a key is worth 59.469681818181... lots of Contraband. (2 616 666/44 000)
1 Contraband is worth 400 Dil via Security Officers at 5 contraband at a time.
This means a Key, bought for 112.5 Zen via a 10 pack and converted this way, is worth 23 787.872727272... Dil. (K-B = 59.469681818181... x 400)
In other words, the gap between exchange value and actual value of a keys worth of Zen is 5 675.37271717171... Dil (K-B - K-A) at todays exchange rate of 161 Dil per Zen, a MASSIVE gap of 35.25076221... Zen. (5675.372717171.../161)
To spell it out, the Dil exchanges true value should be 212 Dil Per Zen once you convert the ratios up. (K-B/K-A x 161, then round up)
Notes:
Numbers correct at time of research, the fluid nature of player driven economics may well alter prices.
Also, this may well be true of other player valued C-Store commodities like Fleet Ship Modules - I have not run their numbers through yet.
K-A - Dil value of a Key via traditional Dil Zen exchange, K-B - Dil value of a Key via new method.
We could throw up numbers all day, but I will bet you with 100% certainty that the exchange is not going to change drastically.
Edit: Especially since we're talking one lonely thread on a forum that is viewed by perhaps 1-5% of the active playerbase.
1) The value of time
2) The refinement cap
So basically what you're seeing in the price differential is the relative value of Refined Dilithium *now* versus Unrefined Dilithium *hours from now*.
This.
Remember how dil is supposed to be the 'time' currency while zen is supposed to be the 'money' currency? Dil->zen is mostly a convenience thing.
If the exchange jacks up the cost of zen, I just won't buy any.
If you were really under the impression your "revelation" would have any impact on the game, you should really think about your own importance. Some display of numbers magic (although interesting - yet a bit flawed, see the posters above me) won't bring nearly enough people to change their strategies. Perhaps not even one.
the "value" of dil vs ec vs zen is totally random. You get very different numbers if you compare dil vs ec using keys than if you compare using fleet modules.
Yes, you can turn a profit this way. With a great deal of time and effort.
The players of this game are not hard-core mostly. Take the crafting mats this weekend... for as much of sitting there doing it as you could stand, you could double your money every hour or so with crafting mats this past weekend (talking buy low sell high here, not farming etc). I watched some of the mats triple in value over a few hours, then fall again, in a cycle. It was awesome.
In the long term things tend to even out mostly. Effort involved has an effect on prices, of course.
Like others said, there's two limitations on that conversion. Refinement cap and catfood turnin cap. You can only convert so much catfood a day, based on the number of characters you have to do it, and that it's only 4 turn ins max to hit cap. So if you only have a little bit of Dilithium, then you can turn it around and double it. But if you keep going, the time to double will increase to months, then years. There's a practical limit.
STO has several main resources involved:
Zen
Refined Dilithium
Unrefined Dilithium
Energy Credits
Time
What the cycle you are stating is doing is:
Zen -> EC + Time -> Unrefined Dilithum + Time -> Refined Dilithium -> Zen
Note the Time component in two of those stages. Time has a value.
What you're trying to describe is arbitrage http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Arbitrage. Free markets tend to automatically eliminate arbitrage in the long term as people note the imbalance and capitalize on it. That act of capitalization changes prices so they come into balance to what the market as a whole values each commodity.
If time has no value to you (or at least less than the market's value), then you have a relationship you can take advantage of, and you should feel free to do so. But the existing discrepancy in Contraband EC prices to Master Key or Fleet Module EC prices holds the markets valuation of time.
Indeed, if you're never earning dilithium in any other way (like by playing the game), the relationship exists to continue to convert unused time into dilithium. It's never going to go away completely.
To me, there are 2 other factors - the fun factor and the time factor. Personally, I'm not interested in spending my time and eliminating the fun in that time period so I could maximize my profits even now that I've seen your analysis. I'm just like that, I hate grind in general and would rather do other stuff in game.
You're partially right - if the vast majority of STO players found out this and if they all decide to fully dedicate themselves and all their chars to maximizing the profits, then it would probably cause changes in the zen/dilithium exchange. Khaless knows the Ferengi amongst us will try when they read this
Mind, I suppose you could use it to generate loads of unrefined Dil - sell keys for tonnes of contraband, turn it in 3 times a day, play stuff to get the rest of your Dil cap, instead of needing to grind stuff.
Place for it I suppose, but it certainly isn't what I thought it would be.
Hmm, this goes for *anything* on *any* market *anywhere*. The more it costs, the less inclined I am to buy it. :P
I can't handle any more as an actual player, and I have 10 or 11 or something characters. Only 3 are heavily played, the rest are farmers of one sort or another (I have a complicated setup of contraband, crafting resources, bridge officers (if they fix the rom recruit mission), reputation, and other profitable schemes running in parallel) and with all that I still can't dil cap all of them daily and still enjoy the game. I am lucky to refine 20k / day on a work-day, and make a few mil EC / day, say 5 mil average. I could do 3 times that daily if I had no life and did not play to enjoy the game. I feel a little bad about the groups that end up with my farmers in them, but I did scavenge up enough gear to function if not excel. I may not be leet but I contribute better than a "new guy at 50" with them.
it was stated a while back that you are allowed to have a maximum of two(2) accounts on STO
all things on computers are finite by definition.
contra moves fine thru the mail, but why bother? each account can be self-sustaining. If your goal is to outfit a single character, transferring things is difficult. If your goal is to amass wealth, that you can do.
The limit on one account is pretty large, I think it is 50 characters. That would be 400k refined/day. if you can sustain *that*, well my hat is off to your epic farming. If you can't sustain it, there is no need for more.