Disclaimer: Sample size of 6,000 is too small for the probabilities.
2000 boxes opened with Romulan characters:
- 10,872 lobi - 5.436 avg
- 39x new console - 1.95%
- 48x 10k cxp bonus - 2.40%
- 82x 2k cxp bonus - 4.10%
- 36x 100 fm bonus - 1.80%
- 48x 25k fleet credit bonus - 2.40%
- 82x 5k fleet credit bonus - 4.10%
- 486x fleet support mini pack - 24.30%
- 407x reinforcements mini pack - 20.35%
- 83x prefered customer mining pack - 4.15%
- 45x VIP customer mining pack - 2.25%
- 146x voth duty officer - 7.30%
- 14x ground trait profession specific - 0.70%
- 33x space trait profession specific - 1.65%
- 390x voth antiproton weapons - 19.50%
- 54x mirror ha'feh - 2.70%
- 7x voth cruiser - 0.35%
2000 boxes opened with Klingon characters:
- 10,730 lobi - 5.365 avg
- 34x new console - 1.70%
- 42x 10k cxp bonus - 2.10%
- 66x 2k cxp bonus - 3.30%
- 29x 100 fm bonus - 1.45%
- 53x 25k fleet credit bonus - 2.65%
- 83x 5k fleet credit bonus - 4.15%
- 506x fleet support mini pack - 25.30%
- 458x reinforcements mini pack - 22.90%
- 72x prefered customer mining pack - 3.60%
- 38x VIP customer mining pack - 1.90%
- 154x voth duty officer - 7.70%
- 24x ground trait profession specific - 1.20%
- 21x space trait profession specific - 1.05%
- 356x voth antiproton weapons - 17.80%
- 60x mirror vo'quv - 3.00%
- 4x voth cruiser - 0.20%
2000 boxes opened with Federation characters:
- 10,648 lobi - 5.324 avg
- 35x new console - 1.75%
- 30x 10k cxp bonus - 1.50%
- 88x 2k cxp bonus - 4.40%
- 45x 100 fm bonus - 2.25%
- 53x 25k fleet credit bonus - 2.65%
- 77x 5k fleet credit bonus - 3.85%
- 466x fleet support mini pack - 23.30%
- 456x reinforcements mini pack - 22.80%
- 61x prefered customer mining pack - 3.05%
- 40x VIP customer mining pack - 2.00%
- 129x voth duty officer - 6.45%
- 26x ground trait profession specific - 1.30%
- 15x space trait profession specific - 0.75%
- 396x voth antiproton weapons - 19.80%
- 38x mirror advanced escort - 1.90%
- 36x mirror patrol escort - 1.80%
- 9x voth cruiser - 0.45%
Totals:
- 32,250 lobi - 5.375 avg
- 108x new console - 1.80%
- 120x 10k cxp bonus - 2.00%
- 236x 2k cxp bonus - 3.93%
- 110x 100 fm bonus - 1.83%
- 154x 25k fleet credit bonus - 2.57%
- 242x 5k fleet credit bonus - 4.03%
- 1458x fleet support mini pack - 24.30%
- 1321x reinforcements mini pack - 22.02%
- 216x prefered customer mining pack - 3.60%
- 123x VIP customer mining pack - 2.05%
- 429x voth duty officer - 7.15%
- 64x ground trait profession specific - 1.07%
- 69x space trait profession specific - 1.15%
- 1142x voth antiproton weapons - 19.03%
- 188x mirror ships - 3.13%
- 20x voth cruiser - 0.333%
Enjoy.
Given that this is a bit of work every time, you could tip me with mailing one master key to @dukedom if you like my statistics.
Ceterum censeo Otha supplendum in praemiis.
Comments
--->Ground Combat General Bugs Directory
Real join date: March 2012 / PvP Veteran since May 2012 (Ground and Space)
That said, this work is nevertheless excellent, especially considering the box has only been out for a few hours.
i think everyone might have forgotten to say that.
Put a couple master keys and lockboxes in the inventory of a character. Use the character copy to tribble. Use it again. And again. Don't stop yet. etc etc.
Log onto Tribble. Open the boxes and add the results to a spreadsheet. Rinse & Repeat until you are at your target number of opened boxes.
wot?
Can't help but the content of this box sells for little so far.
The lobi payout with all those boxes you opened is an INSULT. To how much money people have to spend.
Wow Cryptic.
I can only imagine how much work you put in to get these results, you got my respect sir.
Yes !
I Thank you very much !
This information is very enlightening to those seeking the truth about these boxes.
Seriously?
That's awesome work, some of those numbers were pretty surprising.
Did you not read the disclaimer? The sample size is too small to definitively say what the drop rates for the ships are, even with 6000 boxes the changes in drop rates we're observing may just be due to chance.
Fixed that. I didn't even notice until you said so.
That.
just wait till the next lockbox, If the op does a test of that i wouldn't be surprised to see the drop rate fall to .01 for the new ship. soon its going to be like winning the lottery with a 1/1,000,000 odds for a ship drop.
MY FLEET:http://sto-forum.perfectworld.com/showthread.php?t=498091
At this point I am not even sure if the lowered droprate is an intentional change.
Which would be really really bad. Because that implies something would be broken inside the RNG. And that is probably the worst thing which could be wrong.
However I have no frakking clue why my numbers started to deviate from the expected 0.5%. I still have the one or other idea I have not tried out yet, but given that it would involve a 'lot' more box opening on tribble than just 6,000 I am not quiet ready for that particular wild goose chase.
Actually things are not so bad on the statistical side, if we settle for reasonable ambitions.
If the drop rate of a ship is really 0.05%, the probability of observing a sample of 6000 boxes with only 20 ships or less is equal to 3.5% (or my spreasheet is misconceived, which is always a possibility). So either you were (seriously) unlucky, or the drop rate is really below 0.5% now. That looks quite conclusive to me.
The trouble is, I don't know which confidence interval was attached to the initial estimation of 0.5%, though. Maybe the drop rate was never really 0.5% and the initial testers were "just a bit" lucky. As you said, a really big sample is needed for the accurate estimation of such a small probability. But a sample of 6000 is sufficient to detect deviations from a perfect initial estimate (the theoretical value of 0.5% was shamelessly considered as a constant in my computation).