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All Faith Lost..

kintishokintisho Member Posts: 1,040 Arc User
Ok so by the odds.. I have now accumulated over 1,800 lobi since these boxes started infecting the game... how many boxes have I opened? (5 lobi per box = 360 cash theft boxes opened) each of the box drop ship ("grand prizes")has an est. value of what 70 keys? according to the Devs.. I have NEVER received a "grand prize" ship, I have gotten many of the "consolation" sorry for ya TRIBBLE drops... after spending all this money I feel like the Devs are directly lying and perhaps only lifetime subscribers can have good things for exorbitant amounts of raw cash thrown to pwe? Very disappointed and feeling robbed yet again, please advise.. will opening 5 billion boxes EVER get me a decent ship or is it sorry for ya thanks for the free cash?
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  • lterlter Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    One fleetmate of mine opened two temporal ships in two days. He sold them on exchange and got rich.

    I buy my lockbox ships by buying some keys and selling them on exchange, and then buying the ships I wanted directly from the exchange.

    Yeah gambling sucks. You should have known better.
  • atlasmk7atlasmk7 Member Posts: 48 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    I my self have opened a total of about 100 boxes and got one ship. It's the lottery and sometimes you just have bad luck, although I totally see your point. On the flip side, how irritating is it when someone gets a ship back to back? One guy in local got five boxes, got two ships. Makes you think there is hope, and then you blow 50 bucks and get nothing.
  • kintishokintisho Member Posts: 1,040 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    yea.. gambling this game went to vegas a long time ago.. too bad its not honest odds... Better racket with slot machines..
  • captainrevo1captainrevo1 Member Posts: 3,948 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    The devs have never told us the odds. the 1 to 70 keys is wrong and i have no idea where you got that from.

    in reality from player calculations its more like 1 in 200.

    no, it has nothing to do with who bought what, or lifetime memberships. no one is lying. its pure 100% luck of the odds. you can open a thousand and never get one, or you could open only 1 and get it first time. its pure luck.

    the lobi you have gained could buy you 2 ships from the lobi store, or in future it is far more productive to sell the keys for EC and buy them off the exchange.
  • vactuskasunvactuskasun Member Posts: 35 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    I've gotten the mirror universe escorts several times... but no grand prize ships in over 150 boxes.
  • lonh12lonh12 Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    Ive opened just shy of 400 boxes...bought 500 total keys(had alot of real moneys to burn through)...not one damn special ship...

    TRIBBLE the boxes...and the lobi store is one big overpriced waste.
  • flash525flash525 Member Posts: 5,441 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    I can confirm that these grand prized rewards are not subscription specific. I'm a F2P gamer, not a subscriber and I've got both the Galor and the Jem Hadar Escort. Granted, both (in such a way) took a considerable amount of boxes, more than I care to admit. What's worse, is that I hardly use the ships too. I've probably used the Chel Grett more than I've used the Galor or Jem Escort.

    Here's a tip though, if you're deserate for a specific lock box ship, use your Lobi to buy one of the Lobi Store items (the Jem Hadar Dreadnought or Recluse), sell that on the exchange and use your 'reward money' from that sale to go onto the exchange and buy the ship you want.

    That's what I did with the Jem Hadar Escort. I earnt enough Lobi to buy the Dreadnought, sold it for some 85mil, then purchased the Jem Hadar Escort for 83mil. Made 2mil in the process.

    Otherwise, it's pot luck. I was on Earth Space Dock some time ago, a player I was talking too was opening boxes (they'd just bought their first ever 10-pack). She scored both a Orb Weaver and a D'Kora within 7 keys.
    attachment.php?attachmentid=42556&d=1518094222
  • tenkaritenkari Member Posts: 2,906 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    I won a D'kora from a box, and a tuffli from the doff pack that it came from once. its pure luck. i've spent a lot of money on keys and such, bought 2 lobi ships from the store, and the full temporal set and the jem hadar space set upgrade.


    sure i'd love to have some of those ships, but i've also gotten millions of EC's worth of rare consoles (about 20 of them) sure it sucks when you dont get the htings you REALLY want, but sometimes the consolation prizes are worth if it you can sell the items for 500k+ EC a pop.
  • weylandjuarezweylandjuarez Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    lter wrote: »
    I buy my lockbox ships by buying some keys and selling them on exchange, and then buying the ships I wanted directly from the exchange.

    Yeah gambling sucks. You should have known better.

    And yet, if everyone took your advice there'd be no ships for you to buy on the exchange.

    Whilst I agree that it's folly to spend your Dilithium/Zen on opening lockboxes, posts such as yours really irk me - you're basically calling the OP a fool yet at the same time taking advantage of people's compulsions to benefit yourself - there's something particularly ugly about that. Well done. :rolleyes:
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  • mustangpoweredmustangpowered Member Posts: 16 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    so far I have won 3 Bug ships 3 Wells 2 D'koras 2 Galors a Tholian and the dominion escort
    I think its more a timing thing, I have hit best when I see alot being rewarded got 2 of the wells back to back. did go through alot of keys used the lobis to get the store version.
  • timelord79timelord79 Member Posts: 1,852 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    It's a big numbers game, folks...

    You can open 200 boxes and get nothing. You can open 1000 boxes and get nothing.

    Sure, your chances to get the ship are better with 1000 boxes, but each roll is only 0,5% or whatever the chance for a ship is.

    When 200,000 players roll 100 boxes each, that's 20,000,000 boxes, though. Of course the average number will look considerably better and no testing on any individuals part will come close to that average number.
    Among the winner, yeah, someone might hit the jackpot multiple times while others never get anything.

    In the end, Cryptic can claim every 70 boxes it's one winner.. on average. but the distribution won't really be looking even.
    That will only happen when the scale goes up so far that individual players don't show up anymore in the calculation.
    11750640_1051211588222593_450219911807924697_n.jpg
  • vactuskasunvactuskasun Member Posts: 35 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    tenkari wrote: »
    I won a D'kora from a box, and a tuffli from the doff pack that it came from once. its pure luck. i've spent a lot of money on keys and such, bought 2 lobi ships from the store, and the full temporal set and the jem hadar space set upgrade.


    sure i'd love to have some of those ships, but i've also gotten millions of EC's worth of rare consoles (about 20 of them) sure it sucks when you dont get the htings you REALLY want, but sometimes the consolation prizes are worth if it you can sell the items for 500k+ EC a pop.

    This is true. I've gotten many Dominion Duty officers. I've kept five for myself and sold the other five. Raked in the ECs on the exchange.
  • logicalspocklogicalspock Member Posts: 836 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    kintisho wrote: »
    Ok so by the odds.. I have now accumulated over 1,800 lobi since these boxes started infecting the game... how many boxes have I opened? (5 lobi per box = 360 cash theft boxes opened) each of the box drop ship ("grand prizes")has an est. value of what 70 keys? according to the Devs.. I have NEVER received a "grand prize" ship, I have gotten many of the "consolation" sorry for ya TRIBBLE drops... after spending all this money I feel like the Devs are directly lying and perhaps only lifetime subscribers can have good things for exorbitant amounts of raw cash thrown to pwe? Very disappointed and feeling robbed yet again, please advise.. will opening 5 billion boxes EVER get me a decent ship or is it sorry for ya thanks for the free cash?

    If they were like the first Jem Hadar boxes then the expected value of the ship is about $130 US (meaning you need to open 130 boxes) and there is a reasonably chance that you could spend over $1000 and not recieve the ship.

    It is called gambling for a reason and PWE is purposefully not giving out the odds and spamming messages about people winning ships in order to deceive you into believing the odds are much better than they are.

    All I can say is Caveat Emptor. Due to this shady business practice I have not spent a dime on this game since the first lottery.
  • robdmcrobdmc Member Posts: 1,619 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    kintisho wrote: »
    I have now accumulated over 1,800 lobi

    It does not sound like a complete waste. you have enough lobis to get 2 lobi ship which go for the same amount as the other lock box ships with enough left over to get a Tachyokinetic Converter which is one of the best consoles in the game for 200 lobis
  • evendzharevendzhar Member Posts: 209 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    And yet, if everyone took your advice there'd be no ships for you to buy on the exchange.
    Fools will always ignore good advice, but they do open lock boxes.
  • loading159loading159 Member Posts: 184 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    I opened 600 boxes on the test server, only got 2 ships.
    did this by copying my character with 40 keys over a BUNCH of times
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  • shaanithegreenshaanithegreen Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    kintisho wrote: »
    1,800 lobi since these boxes started infecting the game... will opening 5 billion boxes EVER get me a decent ship or is it sorry for ya thanks for the free cash?

    Dude, buy some lobi-store ships and sell them on the exchange. You'll get enough money to buy whatever lockbox ship you want (save the Bug, probably).

    EDIT: I won two JHEC ships in two days, so . . . yeah. Luck.
  • mikenight00mikenight00 Member Posts: 101 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    After opening 10 boxes in a row and not getting any of the special ships I figured the odds of winning were far beyond what I could afford to gamble. I'm happy to sell those who like to gamble keys on the exchange. I'd much rather you guys burn up EC trying to win big rather than sinking in real money.
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  • tsurutafan01tsurutafan01 Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    The exchange method is slow but reliable.

    Opening boxes could result in a quick jackpot or nothing.

    Gambling is called gambling for a reason. Someone has to win nothing.


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  • oldkirkfanoldkirkfan Member Posts: 1,263 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    I have purchased 80 keys over the past 18 months, and no Prize Ship. I opened 4 Doff Packs and got a Tuffli on my 3rd one. It's all luck, and I've never been lucky.:o
  • vesolcvesolc Member Posts: 244 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    There is no such thing as luck. Just numbers.
  • kagurazaka77kagurazaka77 Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    What would be the point in telling us the odds anyway? People would simply misinterpret them and continue to complain.

    If they said they were 0.5% or 1:200, then everyone would be 'but I bought 200 boxes and didn't get a ship! HAXXORZ!'

    You can roll a 200 sided die 1,000,000 times. And while unlikely, it's possible that it will never land on the number '200'.

    I've opened a few boxes, never gotten anything of real note. This time, the second box I opened after they came out, got me a JHHEC. Opened a few more to try and get the mining claims.

    If you don't like the lockboxes, don't support them. Don't buy the keys. Don't buy the ships. Nothing that comes out of them is necessary to play the game. I sold my JHHEC.
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  • maddog0000doommaddog0000doom Member Posts: 1,017 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    kintisho wrote: »
    Ok so by the odds.. I have now accumulated over 1,800 lobi since these boxes started infecting the game... how many boxes have I opened? (5 lobi per box = 360 cash theft boxes opened) each of the box drop ship ("grand prizes")has an est. value of what 70 keys? according to the Devs.. I have NEVER received a "grand prize" ship, I have gotten many of the "consolation" sorry for ya TRIBBLE drops... after spending all this money I feel like the Devs are directly lying and perhaps only lifetime subscribers can have good things for exorbitant amounts of raw cash thrown to pwe? Very disappointed and feeling robbed yet again, please advise.. will opening 5 billion boxes EVER get me a decent ship or is it sorry for ya thanks for the free cash?

    you do know its cheaper to just buy doff packs and sell them for ec and just buy the ship. or spend a few week farming the ec.
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  • anazondaanazonda Member Posts: 8,399 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    ~snip

    Quote for truth... However, the truth is not entirely correctly written in your post.

    However, if said like this: The chance of getting a fake-uber-ship is "1:200 pr roll", then it would be correct... and only the dumb can mis-understand that, in which case, they'd deserve it.
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  • logicalspocklogicalspock Member Posts: 836 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    What would be the point in telling us the odds anyway? People would simply misinterpret them and continue to complain.

    If they said they were 0.5% or 1:200, then everyone would be 'but I bought 200 boxes and didn't get a ship! HAXXORZ!'

    You can roll a 200 sided die 1,000,000 times. And while unlikely, it's possible that it will never land on the number '200'.

    I've opened a few boxes, never gotten anything of real note. This time, the second box I opened after they came out, got me a JHHEC. Opened a few more to try and get the mining claims.

    If you don't like the lockboxes, don't support them. Don't buy the keys. Don't buy the ships. Nothing that comes out of them is necessary to play the game. I sold my JHHEC.

    Because, at least if they told us the odds we would have the opportunity to make an informed decision. Even in Vegas they force the casinos to either tell you the odds upfront, allow you to calculate the odds yourself based on the rules, or enforce a minimum return rate.
  • heavensrunheavensrun Member Posts: 215 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    And yet, if everyone took your advice there'd be no ships for you to buy on the exchange.

    Whilst I agree that it's folly to spend your Dilithium/Zen on opening lockboxes, posts such as yours really irk me - you're basically calling the OP a fool yet at the same time taking advantage of people's compulsions to benefit yourself - there's something particularly ugly about that. Well done. :rolleyes:

    You have just failed economics. If everyone took his advice of saving up lobi to buy lobi ships to sell to buy lockbox ships, they'd be opening lockboxes, and thus there would be proportionately more lockbox ships on the market to get. So you'd have more people buying them, but you'd also have more people getting them and, thus, selling them.
  • heavensrunheavensrun Member Posts: 215 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    Because, at least if they told us the odds we would have the opportunity to make an informed decision. Even in Vegas they force the casinos to either tell you the odds upfront, allow you to calculate the odds yourself based on the rules, or enforce a minimum return rate.

    You do have the opportunity to make an informed decision, it just requires a little more legwork, and maybe a couple of assumptions.

    We know we get 4 lobi per box. Let's play conservative and assume that the odds of getting any other number is vanishingly improbable (it certainly seems that way sometimes) So a lobi ship, at 800 lobi, is 200 boxes.

    We know that, on the exchange, lobi ships and lockbox ships have fairly similar exchange rates. If we make the single assumption that the two types of ships are in similar demand, that indicates the supply for both is comparable as well, simply due to inevitable market forces. So we can infer, entirely indirectly, that the rate of 1:200 is likely approximately correct. But that's an average, as has been mentioned, so some people will get it on their first try, others won't after 400 tries. BUT, this does tell us that if you open 200 boxes, you have enough lobi to buy something that is economically comparable to what you're hunting for anyway, so sell your lobi ship at that point and buy the lockbox ship.

    Personally, I think the ships in game otherwise offer plenty of playability on their own, so I don't mind having LB ships as a longterm goal, and I haven't personally bought more than a handful of keys with actual zen.
  • foundrelicfoundrelic Member Posts: 1,380 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    With the exception of the Galor I have pulled at LEAST one grand prize ship in each lock box run.


    Haven't gotten the heavy escort yet but the Dominion boxes are still dropping so my "score" is currently unaffected.


    It really is pure luck though.
  • aspartan1aspartan1 Member Posts: 1,054 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    so far I have won 3 Bug ships 3 Wells 2 D'koras 2 Galors a Tholian and the dominion escort
    I think its more a timing thing, I have hit best when I see alot being rewarded got 2 of the wells back to back. did go through alot of keys used the lobis to get the store version.

    You got bug ships from the boxes? I wasted so much money looking for one...... :(

    I wish they would a special section in the store for the "special ships" which we can buy directly and get rid of the gambling aspect of the game or reduce the price by at least 50% for the keys.
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  • kain9primekain9prime Member Posts: 739 Arc User
    edited February 2013
    Last time I went to Vegas, I blew $80 on slot machines. I got nothing.


    It must be the casino's fault. Or maybe it's the fault of the company who made the machine.


    Certainly not mine...


    :rolleyes:
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