Chances for Special Requisition Choice Pack of T6 ships when buying/opening Duty Office Packs?

w00q

Anyone know what are the chances of this Special Requisition Choice Pack of T6 ships when buying/opening Duty Office Packs from May 10th to May 14th 2018? (Sounds like usually you get 10 Lobi crystals instead).

www.arcgames.com/en/games/star-trek-online/news/detail/10896184-infinity-duty-officer-promotion%21

annemarie30

well, found this from 2016.. The odds are 0.5% for "normal" lockbox ships and 0.25% for ultra rare lockbox ships. and from 2014... No, I'm pretty sure it's 1.1% (I think it was in the latest podcast). and on the phoenix prizes, 2016 9 Epic ( 0.072%, or 1 in 1400) 26 Ultra ( 0.208%, or 1 in 480)

so you can bet that the drop rate is going to be around 1% AT BEST, probably closer to the .25-.5 range

davefenestrator

Lockbox odds are 1 in 250, R&D pack are 1 in 100 based on people opening thousands.

I don't recall seeing a post on Duty Officer packs but since Cryptic seems to set the odds based on cost I'd guess the odds are like R&D packs.

As always, the 100% sure way to get the ship is to buy it for credits from the Exchange. Buy keys or packs, sell keys or packs for credit, buy ship with credits. Guaranteed success.

davefenestrator

Be warned each pack or box is its own stand-alone dice roll. If you buy 100 packs you do not have a 100% chance of getting a ship. You get 100 chances to roll a d100 and hope for critical success.

It's possible before you start opening to calculate the odds of getting at least 1 ship from opening N packs or boxes:

For lock boxes, 1.0 - (0.996 ^ N) where N is the number of keys NOT USED YET, and ^ is exponent, the x^y button on calculator's scientific view

For packs, 1.0 - (0.99 ^ N). For example 50 packs, 1.0 - 0.99 ^ 50 = 1.0 - 0.605 = 0.395 = 39.5% chance of getting 1 (or more) ships.

That works because you're calculating the odds of NOT getting a ship, that is never rolling a 100 or 250, which is a "dependent" probability.

annemarie30

davefenestrator wrote: »

Lockbox odds are 1 in 250, R&D pack are 1 in 100 based on people opening thousands.

I don't recall seeing a post on Duty Officer packs but since Cryptic seems to set the odds based on cost I'd guess the odds are like R&D packs.

As always, the 100% sure way to get the ship is to buy it for credits from the Exchange. Buy keys or packs, sell keys or packs for credit, buy ship with credits. Guaranteed success.

yeah, but are you willing to spend 350 dollars for that T6 Connie? Assume 1.5 billion EC and an average of 4.3 mil per key... and how long to grind out 140937500 Dil to convert to zen???

rattler2

At least we are guaranteed to get SOMETHING. Like Lobi. I wouldn't object to a ship, but I'll take the Lobi.

I kinda want that Discovery EV suit.

starcruiser

Warning...DON"T do it....unless you feel LUCKY!

Better buy it from the exchange with the money you get from keys/packs.​​

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annemarie30

or you can just buy 10 keys open the boxes and not buy starbucks a couple days

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postagepaid

Buy the packs, sell the packs and let some other mug do the gambling while you buy the thing you want off the exchange if you really have to have the ship.

If you don't really, really, really want it then don't waste your time/money doing these promos.

Regular t6 costs 2.4-3k so whatever you do don't spend more than that.

annemarie30

yeah, but are you willing to spend 350 dollars for that T6 Connie? Assume 1.5 billion EC and an average of 4.3 mil per key... and how long to grind out 140937500 Dil to convert to zen???

For me? A few weeks, doing nothing but Admiralty.

yeah I'll call BS on that with an 8k/day cap on refining.
not even with 50 alts

rattler2

Its taken me months rolling just 5 through Admiralty to get to within striking distance of my goal for Zen.

So... I'd kinda have to agree on being skeptical about the timeframe. While I can see its POSSIBLE... the average person would probably burn out from Admiralty before they can even start playing.

But hey... if I'm wrong... holy shtako that is an impressive income rate.

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rattler2

16 characters at 6 weeks... what projects were you running?
I admit on 5 I'm averaging around 1 mil a day running through Ferengi. But that's ALSO adding in the Marauding I'm doing around DS9 on one KDF for Contraband.

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rattler2

I'll have to keep that in mind. I've been working on getting Zen for the Gamma Vanguard pack since December, just rolling the Ferengi. Also did the Marauding for ECs as I was working on a Crossfield.

Great way to save up Dilithium without burning out like I've done in the past honestly.

thegrandnagus1

annemarie30 wrote: »

davefenestrator wrote: »

Lockbox odds are 1 in 250, R&D pack are 1 in 100 based on people opening thousands.

I don't recall seeing a post on Duty Officer packs but since Cryptic seems to set the odds based on cost I'd guess the odds are like R&D packs.

As always, the 100% sure way to get the ship is to buy it for credits from the Exchange. Buy keys or packs, sell keys or packs for credit, buy ship with credits. Guaranteed success.

yeah, but are you willing to spend 350 dollars for that T6 Connie? Assume 1.5 billion EC and an average of 4.3 mil per key... and how long to grind out 140937500 Dil to convert to zen???

As of this post, prices are down to 1.08.

1.08bil / 4.3mil = 251

Of course, 251 is still a big number, but it's a good bit less than 350.

madmopar

Man I really want the durgath. How do lobi ships sell for nowadays? I can purchase about 3 of them.

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madmopar

> @azrael605 said:
> > @madmopar said:
> > Man I really want the durgath. How do lobi ships sell for nowadays? I can purchase about 3 of them.
>
> Lobi ships tend to run about 250 million EC or so. The prices are pretty steady as they are always available unlike Lockbox ships which have luls in availability as their box ends and between runs of the Infinity Box.

Haha. That's depressing. Thanks though.

thegrandnagus1

madmopar wrote: »

> @azrael605 said:
> > @madmopar said:
> > Man I really want the durgath. How do lobi ships sell for nowadays? I can purchase about 3 of them.
>
> Lobi ships tend to run about 250 million EC or so. The prices are pretty steady as they are always available unlike Lockbox ships which have luls in availability as their box ends and between runs of the Infinity Box.

Haha. That's depressing. Thanks though.

Which part is depressing to you? There might be a trick to (the issue you have) that can help.

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rattler2

azrael605 wrote: »

I did an experiment once, buying keys with EC and opening boxes until I had enough Lobi to buy a ship, cost me like twice as much as if I'd just bought the ship with the EC.

Its a mixed bag really. Just going for Lobi can be variable. Yet at the same time if you were to get lucky and get a lockbox ship, you could sell that and either have enough or be close to having enough ECs for the ship you want.

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rattler2

NX Refit is a fun ship. I'm currently poking through some stockpiled Discovery boxes in hopes of getting a Sarco for my KDF. At the very least... I'm getting Lobi I can spend for other things.

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rattler2

I'd load mine up with beam arrays to offset the low turn, and get my slavers on her for more Beemy Deff Fun.
The issue is just GETTING one. I'd actually replace my Vorgon carrier with the Sarco.

Also the cloak on the Sarco looks AWESOME.

annemarie30

funny how the original post of Dil became EC.. but whatever... the question is will the bottom fall out of the lobi dreadnaughts with them coming available on the expansion pack.

rattler2

The T5 ships will probably still be worth something for people who don't get the vanguard pack. But... its possible the value may drop a bit because of people being able to get account unlocks.

The limiting factor of the drop that I can see... is the potential that the ONLY source of account unlock T5s will be the full Vanguard pack. And I doubt a lot of people are going to want to shell out $100+ for them.

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