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(T6) disappointment!

I don't know how to handle this disappointment. I opened 50 lockboxes, farmed millions of EC, and opened research and development packs and still, I can never get a (T6) heavy command cruiser or a (T6) light cruiser.
Maybe I'm just too late. I even checked in the exchange. They were going like 6 million but now, they're almost 1,000,000,000. I don't think I can farm that many EC. May be it's not for me to get a heavy command cruiser or a (T6) light cruiser. All I can do now is just around and feel sorry for myself. If anyone did get a (T6) heavy command cruiser or (T6) light cruiser will understand. But those who feel the sting of my disappointment probably will. Maybe I'll just wait for something better to come along.
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Comments

  • officerbatman81officerbatman81 Member Posts: 2,761 Arc User
    I can't believe this is real.

    Enough already.
  • davefenestratordavefenestrator Member Posts: 10,865 Arc User
    If not trolling and not another sockpuppet account:

    Sell keys or packs, get EC, buy from exchange or trade channels. I've bought 5 lock box ships and 2 lobi ships that way.
    They were going like 6 million

    Not in this universe, maybe in Mirror STO.
  • nccmarknccmark Member Posts: 1,084 Arc User
    Fn liar
  • iconiansiconians Member Posts: 6,987 Arc User
    fedscout1 wrote: »
    I don't know how to handle this disappointment. I opened 50 lockboxes, farmed millions of EC, and opened research and development packs and still, I can never get a (T6) heavy command cruiser or a (T6) light cruiser.
    Maybe I'm just too late. I even checked in the exchange. They were going like 6 million but now, they're almost 1,000,000,000. I don't think I can farm that many EC. May be it's not for me to get a heavy command cruiser or a (T6) light cruiser. All I can do now is just around and feel sorry for myself. If anyone did get a (T6) heavy command cruiser or (T6) light cruiser will understand. But those who feel the sting of my disappointment probably will. Maybe I'll just wait for something better to come along.

    LuD2Qq8.gif​​
    ExtxpTp.jpg
  • shevetshevet Member Posts: 1,667 Arc User
    Chance of getting the grand prize from a lockbox is somewhere around half a per cent. Chance of getting one from fifty lockboxes is round about one in five. Chance of not getting it is therefore four in five, or what you should expect. This is just basic arithmetic, really.

    (I've got some very nice ships. But you don't see me complaining about how many boxes I had to open for them, because I knew the odds going in.)
    8b6YIel.png?1
  • velquavelqua Member Posts: 1,220 Arc User
    fedscout1 wrote: »
    I don't know how to handle this disappointment. I opened 50 lockboxes, farmed millions of EC, and opened research and development packs and still, I can never get a (T6) heavy command cruiser or a (T6) light cruiser.
    Maybe I'm just too late. I even checked in the exchange. They were going like 6 million but now, they're almost 1,000,000,000. I don't think I can farm that many EC. May be it's not for me to get a heavy command cruiser or a (T6) light cruiser. All I can do now is just around and feel sorry for myself. If anyone did get a (T6) heavy command cruiser or (T6) light cruiser will understand. But those who feel the sting of my disappointment probably will. Maybe I'll just wait for something better to come along.

    Assuming that this is legit, opening 50 Lockboxes will not guarantee you a ship. In an older post the ration for winning was mentioned to be something like 1:1000. I could be wrong, so if anyone does know, feel free to correct me. If you plan on opening lockboxes or R&D packs to get the ships you want, you will need to open a lot--at least close to a 1,000--which means lots of grinding.

    The most common advice given to people who want RNG dropped ships from the lockbox and R&D packs is to acquire an excessive amount of ECs to purchase the ship off the Exchange or from private vendor. That way, you are guaranteed to get the ship; you won't need to worry about "losing" to the RNG.

    Bottom line, open Lockboxes and R&D packs for their contents and not for the promo or special items. If you want the promo or special item, buy them off the Exchange or private vendor for ECs. This will guarantee that you will not be disappointed for having "wasted" resources on something you thought you were entitled to buy opening up such a box or pack. Good luck! :smile:
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  • davefenestratordavefenestrator Member Posts: 10,865 Arc User
    edited September 2016
    For the R&D packs it's 1 in 100:

    http://www.arcgames.com/en/forums/startrekonline/#/discussion/1220998/tos-promo-pack-tribble-results-ten-thousand-10000-packs-opened/p1

    For lock box ships it's 1 in 200 or 250, based on tribble tests of older lock boxes.

    It's always a good idea to do a little homework before spending $50+ but some people like to wing it....
  • jaturnleyjaturnley Member Posts: 1,218 Arc User
    Remember also that this isn't the lottery, EVERY lockbox has the same 1:250 chance, buying more does not change the odds.
  • leemwatsonleemwatson Member Posts: 5,602 Arc User
    edited September 2016
    shevet wrote: »
    Chance of getting the grand prize from a lockbox is somewhere around half a per cent. Chance of getting one from fifty lockboxes is round about one in five. Chance of not getting it is therefore four in five, or what you should expect. This is just basic arithmetic, really.

    (I've got some very nice ships. But you don't see me complaining about how many boxes I had to open for them, because I knew the odds going in.)

    Chance of getting one from 50 boxes is the same as the chance from getting it from 1 or 1 million. The odds don't change no matter how many you open. You could open a billion and still not win one, or you could open 50 and get 50. Increasing odds only work when a 'pool' is decreasing, where there are 100 ships hidden with a million boxes for instance, and is completely different to the lockboxes.
    "You don't want to patrol!? You don't want to escort!? You don't want to defend the Federation's Starbases!? Then why are you flying my Starships!? If you were a Klingon you'd be killed on the spot, but lucky for you.....you WERE in Starfleet. Let's see how New Zealand Penal Colony suits you." Adm A. Necheyev.
  • davefenestratordavefenestrator Member Posts: 10,865 Arc User
    jaturnley wrote: »
    Remember also that this isn't the lottery, EVERY lockbox has the same 1:250 chance, buying more does not change the odds.

    Actually it does, until you start opening them.

    Odds of getting at least one ship are 1 - (.996 ^ N) where N is the number of boxes you are about to open. For 50 boxes, 18.15%.

    Selling them on the exchange would bring around 275 million credits, which is enough to buy 2 less popular ships like a Herald Quas or Tholian Tarantula.



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  • berginsbergins Member Posts: 3,454 Arc User
    I don't know how to handle this disappointment. I opened hundreds of threads, read thousands of ridiculous ideas, and ignored countless trolls and still, I can never find signs of intelligent life here. Maybe I'm just too late. I even checked in Ten Forward.
    "Logic is a little tweeting bird chirping in a meadow. Logic is a wreath of pretty flowers which smell BAD." - Spock
  • snoggymack22snoggymack22 Member Posts: 7,084 Arc User
    Guys, srlsy, guise ... SRSLY!

    We all know that people deal with disappointment in different ways. Some people internalize it. Others project their feelings and act out. Still others try to drown their disappointment in booze, or other destructive habitual behaviors.

    For the OP I'd recommend doing something fun, that makes them feel happy. And that way the OP can start the process of healing.

    What say you all?
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • chastity1337chastity1337 Member Posts: 1,608 Arc User
    bergins wrote: »
    I don't know how to handle this disappointment. I opened hundreds of threads, read thousands of ridiculous ideas, and ignored countless trolls and still, I can never find signs of intelligent life here. Maybe I'm just too late. I even checked in Ten Forward.

    (insert generic childish insult here)
  • atctexx#9688 atctexx Member Posts: 38 Arc User
    I opened a bunch of packs for the double Lobi. Now I fly around in my Vengie and wait for a Lobi sale so I can blow my 2274 Lobi on something I don't really need. Who am I kidding? I'll probably give ships to my brother.....
  • gawainviiigawainviii Member Posts: 328 Arc User
    shevet wrote: »
    Chance of getting the grand prize from a lockbox is somewhere around half a per cent. Chance of getting one from fifty lockboxes is round about one in five. Chance of not getting it is therefore four in five, or what you should expect. This is just basic arithmetic, really.
    Not quite... Because there is no finite number of tries, missing one does not increase the chances for the rest. Each box is a NEW 0.1%.

    It's not like picking the prize behind door number three--there's a fixed number of doors. Three doors, one prize: 33.3%, and the prize is DEFINITELY behind one of them. If you lose at door number three, there's only two doors left and it's DEFINITELY behind one of them, you now have a 50% chance.

    It's more like like rolling a d20. You have a 5% chance of rolling a natural 20 per roll. If you roll 100d20, the result of die no. 1 will not affect the outcome of the other 99 dice. Each new roll is independent of the rest and will still only be a 5% chance EACH.
    newstosiggy.png
  • angrytargangrytarg Member Posts: 11,016 Arc User
    Actually it does, until you start opening them.

    Odds of getting at least one ship are 1 - (.996 ^ N) where N is the number of boxes you are about to open. For 50 boxes, 18.15%.

    Selling them on the exchange would bring around 275 million credits, which is enough to buy 2 less popular ships like a Herald Quas or Tholian Tarantula.

    No it doesn't. The cances of getting a ship are independent, every box has the same chance. The chance of getting one before opening boxes is a different observation. Mentioning it is a form of the gambler's fallacy because it motivates people to spend more money than they otherwise had.​​
    lFC4bt2.gif
    ^ Memory Alpha.org is not canon. It's a open wiki with arbitrary rules. Only what can be cited from an episode is. ^
    "No. Men do not roar. Women roar. Then they hurl heavy objects... and claw at you." -Worf, son of Mogh
    "A filthy, mangy beast, but in its bony breast beat the heart of a warrior" - "faithful" (...) "but ever-ready to follow the call of the wild." - Martok, about a Targ
    "That pig smelled horrid. A sweet-sour, extremely pungent odor. I showered and showered, and it took me a week to get rid of it!" - Robert Justman, appreciating Emmy-Lou
  • szimszim Member Posts: 2,503 Arc User
    @fedscout1
    You may never be able affort a Temporal Light Cruiser (T6), but the Heavy Command Cruiser (T6) will go down in price as soon as the infinity lockbox returns. (It's a special end-of-lifecycle lockbox with a loot table containing almost all items from previous lockboxes). I'm pretty sure that - if you're patient enough - you will be able to buy one for under 200 million EC eventually.
  • starkaosstarkaos Member Posts: 11,557 Arc User
    gawainviii wrote: »
    shevet wrote: »
    Chance of getting the grand prize from a lockbox is somewhere around half a per cent. Chance of getting one from fifty lockboxes is round about one in five. Chance of not getting it is therefore four in five, or what you should expect. This is just basic arithmetic, really.
    Not quite... Because there is no finite number of tries, missing one does not increase the chances for the rest. Each box is a NEW 0.1%.

    It's not like picking the prize behind door number three--there's a fixed number of doors. Three doors, one prize: 33.3%, and the prize is DEFINITELY behind one of them. If you lose at door number three, there's only two doors left and it's DEFINITELY behind one of them, you now have a 50% chance.

    It's more like like rolling a d20. You have a 5% chance of rolling a natural 20 per roll. If you roll 100d20, the result of die no. 1 will not affect the outcome of the other 99 dice. Each new roll is independent of the rest and will still only be a 5% chance EACH.

    Actually, increasing the amount of lockboxes that you open increases the overall chance that one of the them will have the grand prize. So opening up 138 lockboxes has a 50% chance that one of them will contain the ship. Getting 138 losses in a row at a 99.5% chance of losing gives 50%. You need to open 459 lockboxes to get a 90% chance of winning. You need to open 920 lockboxes to get a 99% chance of winning.
  • gawainviiigawainviii Member Posts: 328 Arc User
    starkaos wrote: »
    gawainviii wrote: »
    shevet wrote: »
    Chance of getting the grand prize from a lockbox is somewhere around half a per cent. Chance of getting one from fifty lockboxes is round about one in five. Chance of not getting it is therefore four in five, or what you should expect. This is just basic arithmetic, really.
    Not quite... Because there is no finite number of tries, missing one does not increase the chances for the rest. Each box is a NEW 0.1%.

    It's not like picking the prize behind door number three--there's a fixed number of doors. Three doors, one prize: 33.3%, and the prize is DEFINITELY behind one of them. If you lose at door number three, there's only two doors left and it's DEFINITELY behind one of them, you now have a 50% chance.

    It's more like like rolling a d20. You have a 5% chance of rolling a natural 20 per roll. If you roll 100d20, the result of die no. 1 will not affect the outcome of the other 99 dice. Each new roll is independent of the rest and will still only be a 5% chance EACH.

    Actually, increasing the amount of lockboxes that you open increases the overall chance that one of the them will have the grand prize. So opening up 138 lockboxes has a 50% chance that one of them will contain the ship. Getting 138 losses in a row at a 99.5% chance of losing gives 50%. You need to open 459 lockboxes to get a 90% chance of winning. You need to open 920 lockboxes to get a 99% chance of winning.

    I think you are confusing probability with permutation. Going back to my d20 analogy... If I roll my d20 (analogous of a lockbox)and roll a "5"... that does not remove the "5" face off of your die--you can still roll a "5" just like I did. You still have a 1-in-20 chance of rolling any given number, just like I did, not 1-in-19.

    If there were a fixed number of boxes: "Only 100,000 boxes will be sold, 100 ships to win" then your statement would be true. All you'd have to do is buy 1,000 boxes and you're statistically guaranteed to win at least 1 ship. However, since there is no limit to the number of boxes that can be bought or earned, there is also no limit to the number of ships that can be won. Each box is independent of the rest. The one that I opened (not getting a ship) does not affect the outcome of the box you have in any way.
    newstosiggy.png
  • angrytargangrytarg Member Posts: 11,016 Arc User
    edited September 2016
    gawainviii wrote: »
    I think you are confusing probability with permutation. Going back to my d20 analogy... If I roll my d20 (analogous of a lockbox)and roll a "5"... that does not remove the "5" face off of your die--you can still roll a "5" just like I did. You still have a 1-in-20 chance of rolling any given number, just like I did, not 1-in-19.

    If there were a fixed number of boxes: "Only 100,000 boxes will be sold, 100 ships to win" then your statement would be true. All you'd have to do is buy 1,000 boxes and you're statistically guaranteed to win at least 1 ship. However, since there is no limit to the number of boxes that can be bought or earned, there is also no limit to the number of ships that can be won. Each box is independent of the rest. The one that I opened (not getting a ship) does not affect the outcome of the box you have in any way.

    This is correct pig-1.gif
    starkaos wrote: »
    Actually, increasing the amount of lockboxes that you open increases the overall chance that one of the them will have the grand prize. So opening up 138 lockboxes has a 50% chance that one of them will contain the ship. Getting 138 losses in a row at a 99.5% chance of losing gives 50%. You need to open 459 lockboxes to get a 90% chance of winning. You need to open 920 lockboxes to get a 99% chance of winning.

    No, that's not how probability/chance works. Opening a lockbox/r&d box is comparable to throwing a fair dice (with a lot of sides) or drawing a marble from a urn but returning it afterwards (infinite marbles, infinite prizes). You are falling into the trap that is the Gamber's Fallacy (although the latter assumes some sort of "Fortuna" to influence the odds, relying on a mathematical error should also count).​​
    lFC4bt2.gif
    ^ Memory Alpha.org is not canon. It's a open wiki with arbitrary rules. Only what can be cited from an episode is. ^
    "No. Men do not roar. Women roar. Then they hurl heavy objects... and claw at you." -Worf, son of Mogh
    "A filthy, mangy beast, but in its bony breast beat the heart of a warrior" - "faithful" (...) "but ever-ready to follow the call of the wild." - Martok, about a Targ
    "That pig smelled horrid. A sweet-sour, extremely pungent odor. I showered and showered, and it took me a week to get rid of it!" - Robert Justman, appreciating Emmy-Lou
  • jorantomalakjorantomalak Member Posts: 7,133 Arc User
    fedscout1 wrote: »
    I don't know how to handle this disappointment. I opened 50 lockboxes, farmed millions of EC, and opened research and development packs and still, I can never get a (T6) heavy command cruiser or a (T6) light cruiser.
    Maybe I'm just too late. I even checked in the exchange. They were going like 6 million but now, they're almost 1,000,000,000. I don't think I can farm that many EC. May be it's not for me to get a heavy command cruiser or a (T6) light cruiser. All I can do now is just around and feel sorry for myself. If anyone did get a (T6) heavy command cruiser or (T6) light cruiser will understand. But those who feel the sting of my disappointment probably will. Maybe I'll just wait for something better to come along.

    Need cheese for this whine?

    Some tissues for the QQ ?

    I have several lock box and lobi ships, not one was gotten from a box , all were bought from the exchange if you want the ship badly enough, you will grind your backside off to get it, otherwise stop coming on here so you can throw yourself a pity party.

    Because frankly? no one cares either way.
  • taylor1701dtaylor1701d Member Posts: 3,099 Arc User
    I for one have much sympathy for the lightness your wallet now feels. :cry:
    [img][/img]OD5urLn.jpg
  • kayajaykayajay Member Posts: 1,990 Arc User
    You would have been better buying keys, collecting EC and asking on either the trade channel or on ESD is someone would be willing to sell one. This is actually true, but someone sold me the T6 Connie for only a million, because I politely asked if they were selling one, when I saw the system announced they had it. It was the nicest and most generous thing that's ever happened to me in the game, because this person said they didn't believe in overcharging people.
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  • fiberteksyfirfiberteksyfir Member Posts: 1,207 Arc User
    If you opened 50 boxes thats about 275 million ec at 5,5 a key. Ill be conservative and say you opened 10 rd packs. Thats another 160mil or so give or take. You couldve sole all that for around 435 mil give or take and just bought the jj connie on the exchange (or if you are patient, waited till its in the infinity box and gotten it for like 140mil)
  • snoggymack22snoggymack22 Member Posts: 7,084 Arc User
    I don't think the OP is trolling at all. If you look at his contributions to this forum over the years it's almost nothing but when he has said something it seems genuine. Rather than spit vitriol at him/her why not explain the best way to get it as some people on here have, not everyone is a STO junkie and not everyone is a troll.

    You make a good point, but I think the reactions in this thread were fueled by the fact that this thread exists amidst a sea of similar threads discussing the same general topic about these ships so a lot of people were fooled into thinking it wasn't a serious post because there are dozens of other threads making a similar point. If this had been 2 or 3 weeks ago, the number of people who gave the OP the benefit of the doubt would have been a bit higher I suspect.

    That's not to suggest you are wrong. Like I said, you make a good point. The OP very well could be genuine. I know I hadn't considered that.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
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  • davefenestratordavefenestrator Member Posts: 10,865 Arc User
    angrytarg wrote: »
    Actually it does, until you start opening them.

    Odds of getting at least one ship are 1 - (.996 ^ N) where N is the number of boxes you are about to open. For 50 boxes, 18.15%.

    Selling them on the exchange would bring around 275 million credits, which is enough to buy 2 less popular ships like a Herald Quas or Tholian Tarantula.

    No it doesn't. The cances of getting a ship are independent, every box has the same chance. The chance of getting one before opening boxes is a different observation. Mentioning it is a form of the gambler's fallacy because it motivates people to spend more money than they otherwise had.​​

    Wrong.

    The formula I listed is based on the probability of getting NO ship, which is dependent, then subtracting that from 100%.

    From the dice analogy it is the probability of (not rolling 1 with die 1) AND (not rolling 1 with die 2) AND (not rolling 1 with die 3) ...

    Subtracting that from 100% gives the probability of getting at least one ship, Not one ship, it's one or more.
  • angrytargangrytarg Member Posts: 11,016 Arc User
    edited September 2016
    Wrong.

    The formula I listed is based on the probability of getting NO ship, which is dependent, then subtracting that from 100%.

    From the dice analogy it is the probability of (not rolling 1 with die 1) AND (not rolling 1 with die 2) AND (not rolling 1 with die 3) ...

    Subtracting that from 100% gives the probability of getting at least one ship, Not one ship, it's one or more.

    This has no relevance on your chance of success, though. Every box you open has a roughly 1% chance to contain the prize, no matter if you open 1 or 100. Everytime you have a 99% chance to fail. What you describe is a different observation which doesn't benefit your actual chances in the draw. If you reason it that way that's fine, but it won't do you any good.​​
    lFC4bt2.gif
    ^ Memory Alpha.org is not canon. It's a open wiki with arbitrary rules. Only what can be cited from an episode is. ^
    "No. Men do not roar. Women roar. Then they hurl heavy objects... and claw at you." -Worf, son of Mogh
    "A filthy, mangy beast, but in its bony breast beat the heart of a warrior" - "faithful" (...) "but ever-ready to follow the call of the wild." - Martok, about a Targ
    "That pig smelled horrid. A sweet-sour, extremely pungent odor. I showered and showered, and it took me a week to get rid of it!" - Robert Justman, appreciating Emmy-Lou
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