I don't know how to handle this disappointment. I opened 50 lockboxes, farmed millions of EC, and opened research and development packs and still, I can never get a (T6) heavy command cruiser or a (T6) light cruiser.
Maybe I'm just too late. I even checked in the exchange. They were going like 6 million but now, they're almost 1,000,000,000. I don't think I can farm that many EC. May be it's not for me to get a heavy command cruiser or a (T6) light cruiser. All I can do now is just around and feel sorry for myself. If anyone did get a (T6) heavy command cruiser or (T6) light cruiser will understand. But those who feel the sting of my disappointment probably will. Maybe I'll just wait for something better to come along.
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Enough already.
Sell keys or packs, get EC, buy from exchange or trade channels. I've bought 5 lock box ships and 2 lobi ships that way.
Not in this universe, maybe in Mirror STO.
(I've got some very nice ships. But you don't see me complaining about how many boxes I had to open for them, because I knew the odds going in.)
Assuming that this is legit, opening 50 Lockboxes will not guarantee you a ship. In an older post the ration for winning was mentioned to be something like 1:1000. I could be wrong, so if anyone does know, feel free to correct me. If you plan on opening lockboxes or R&D packs to get the ships you want, you will need to open a lot--at least close to a 1,000--which means lots of grinding.
The most common advice given to people who want RNG dropped ships from the lockbox and R&D packs is to acquire an excessive amount of ECs to purchase the ship off the Exchange or from private vendor. That way, you are guaranteed to get the ship; you won't need to worry about "losing" to the RNG.
Bottom line, open Lockboxes and R&D packs for their contents and not for the promo or special items. If you want the promo or special item, buy them off the Exchange or private vendor for ECs. This will guarantee that you will not be disappointed for having "wasted" resources on something you thought you were entitled to buy opening up such a box or pack. Good luck!
http://www.arcgames.com/en/forums/startrekonline/#/discussion/1220998/tos-promo-pack-tribble-results-ten-thousand-10000-packs-opened/p1
For lock box ships it's 1 in 200 or 250, based on tribble tests of older lock boxes.
It's always a good idea to do a little homework before spending $50+ but some people like to wing it....
Chance of getting one from 50 boxes is the same as the chance from getting it from 1 or 1 million. The odds don't change no matter how many you open. You could open a billion and still not win one, or you could open 50 and get 50. Increasing odds only work when a 'pool' is decreasing, where there are 100 ships hidden with a million boxes for instance, and is completely different to the lockboxes.
Actually it does, until you start opening them.
Odds of getting at least one ship are 1 - (.996 ^ N) where N is the number of boxes you are about to open. For 50 boxes, 18.15%.
Selling them on the exchange would bring around 275 million credits, which is enough to buy 2 less popular ships like a Herald Quas or Tholian Tarantula.
We all know that people deal with disappointment in different ways. Some people internalize it. Others project their feelings and act out. Still others try to drown their disappointment in booze, or other destructive habitual behaviors.
For the OP I'd recommend doing something fun, that makes them feel happy. And that way the OP can start the process of healing.
What say you all?
(insert generic childish insult here)
It's not like picking the prize behind door number three--there's a fixed number of doors. Three doors, one prize: 33.3%, and the prize is DEFINITELY behind one of them. If you lose at door number three, there's only two doors left and it's DEFINITELY behind one of them, you now have a 50% chance.
It's more like like rolling a d20. You have a 5% chance of rolling a natural 20 per roll. If you roll 100d20, the result of die no. 1 will not affect the outcome of the other 99 dice. Each new roll is independent of the rest and will still only be a 5% chance EACH.
No it doesn't. The cances of getting a ship are independent, every box has the same chance. The chance of getting one before opening boxes is a different observation. Mentioning it is a form of the gambler's fallacy because it motivates people to spend more money than they otherwise had.
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You may never be able affort a Temporal Light Cruiser (T6), but the Heavy Command Cruiser (T6) will go down in price as soon as the infinity lockbox returns. (It's a special end-of-lifecycle lockbox with a loot table containing almost all items from previous lockboxes). I'm pretty sure that - if you're patient enough - you will be able to buy one for under 200 million EC eventually.
Actually, increasing the amount of lockboxes that you open increases the overall chance that one of the them will have the grand prize. So opening up 138 lockboxes has a 50% chance that one of them will contain the ship. Getting 138 losses in a row at a 99.5% chance of losing gives 50%. You need to open 459 lockboxes to get a 90% chance of winning. You need to open 920 lockboxes to get a 99% chance of winning.
I think you are confusing probability with permutation. Going back to my d20 analogy... If I roll my d20 (analogous of a lockbox)and roll a "5"... that does not remove the "5" face off of your die--you can still roll a "5" just like I did. You still have a 1-in-20 chance of rolling any given number, just like I did, not 1-in-19.
If there were a fixed number of boxes: "Only 100,000 boxes will be sold, 100 ships to win" then your statement would be true. All you'd have to do is buy 1,000 boxes and you're statistically guaranteed to win at least 1 ship. However, since there is no limit to the number of boxes that can be bought or earned, there is also no limit to the number of ships that can be won. Each box is independent of the rest. The one that I opened (not getting a ship) does not affect the outcome of the box you have in any way.
This is correct
No, that's not how probability/chance works. Opening a lockbox/r&d box is comparable to throwing a fair dice (with a lot of sides) or drawing a marble from a urn but returning it afterwards (infinite marbles, infinite prizes). You are falling into the trap that is the Gamber's Fallacy (although the latter assumes some sort of "Fortuna" to influence the odds, relying on a mathematical error should also count).
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Need cheese for this whine?
Some tissues for the QQ ?
I have several lock box and lobi ships, not one was gotten from a box , all were bought from the exchange if you want the ship badly enough, you will grind your backside off to get it, otherwise stop coming on here so you can throw yourself a pity party.
Because frankly? no one cares either way.
You make a good point, but I think the reactions in this thread were fueled by the fact that this thread exists amidst a sea of similar threads discussing the same general topic about these ships so a lot of people were fooled into thinking it wasn't a serious post because there are dozens of other threads making a similar point. If this had been 2 or 3 weeks ago, the number of people who gave the OP the benefit of the doubt would have been a bit higher I suspect.
That's not to suggest you are wrong. Like I said, you make a good point. The OP very well could be genuine. I know I hadn't considered that.
Wrong.
The formula I listed is based on the probability of getting NO ship, which is dependent, then subtracting that from 100%.
From the dice analogy it is the probability of (not rolling 1 with die 1) AND (not rolling 1 with die 2) AND (not rolling 1 with die 3) ...
Subtracting that from 100% gives the probability of getting at least one ship, Not one ship, it's one or more.
This has no relevance on your chance of success, though. Every box you open has a roughly 1% chance to contain the prize, no matter if you open 1 or 100. Everytime you have a 99% chance to fail. What you describe is a different observation which doesn't benefit your actual chances in the draw. If you reason it that way that's fine, but it won't do you any good.
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