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Logically, it is best that Prize Ships are RNG

repetitiveepicrepetitiveepic Member Posts: 6,549 Arc User
With the SuperBug promo coming out, I think its important that people take a moment to think about *why* things like this have to come from RNG packs. It isn't venality on the part of the developers, there is a logical reason for why it is best for players and the community that it works this way.


There are three good outcomes to look for with prize ships in STO.

1) The prize ships are rare and desirable.
-If nothing is rare and desirable, the game is tepid and boring.

2) Everyone has a chance to get one. -If not everyone has a chance to get one, it is unfair, and pay2win.

3) The company earns revenue and profit. -This is absolutely necessary for the game to continue being run. Business has to earn profit.

-

If we make them available to anyone who wants one at a fixed price in the c-store, but that price is low, then they are no longer rare and desirable, and we sacrifice outcome 1.

-

The only way to make the promo ships very rare and desirable, if they are offered to anyone who wants one at a fixed price in the c-store, is to make that price very high.

The market prices them at about 15k zen, which takes into account the consolation prizes in the promo boxes as well as the odds of winning a ship. In terms of zen expenditure to get one, its closer to 25k zen.

However, if they were offered at that high price, almost no one would have a chance to get them, and also, the owners would not get much revenue.

-

Since having the ships rare and desirable is a good outcome, and the game earning profit is a good outcome as well, and everyone having a chance to get the prize ship is a good outcome as well, we should not give up any one outcome in order to secure two of the others, when instead we can get all three outcomes at the same time.

1) It is good that the ship is rare and desirable
2) It is good that everyone has a chance to get one
3) It is good if the company earns revenue and profit.

The good in these outcomes is cumulative. Having two outcomes is better than having one, and having all three is better than having either two or one.

We can only have all three of these good outcomes if the ships are awarded from RNG boxes.

Since all three outcomes is better than just two, or just one, we should unequivocally support the ships being released in RNG boxes, since it leads to the best possible outcome for the game.
Post edited by Unknown User on
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Comments

  • organicmanfredorganicmanfred Member Posts: 3,236 Arc User
    edited March 2015
    1. you are right
    2. I am on your side
    3. People will insult you and me as soon as they finish reading the first two sentences, because they want their opinion to be true.
  • rosetyler51rosetyler51 Member Posts: 1,631 Arc User
    edited March 2015
    I'm pretty sure you posted this before and it was right then as it is now. I dislike most of the things you say but this time you are in the right.
  • fatman592fatman592 Member Posts: 1,207 Arc User
    edited March 2015
    Pretty sure the only people complaining about the new JHAS are the people who own the old JHAS.

    Can't say I care at all about this announcement.
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  • wraithshadow13wraithshadow13 Member Posts: 1,728 Arc User
    edited March 2015
    3. People will insult you and me as soon as they finish reading the first two sentences, because they want their opinion to be true.

    YOU BOTH SMELL FUNNY, AND I LIKE CHEESE!!!11!1!

    If you don't like cheeses then you should go play hello kitty....

    (lactose intolerant people get a pass)



    Personally (and a little more seriously) I can understand why they do it, I just never liked that they do it. Often, I find the odds are too against me, so buying into things like this or the lock boxes just become an overly expensive waste. Others, with much better luck, wouldn't see that as an issue.

    Yes, it makes money, but really, I feel like there are better ways of doing it. It's not the what, but the how which bothers me. I don't want to speak for anyone else, but I would much rather have a guaranteed way to get something I want without having it be a blatant cash grab tactic. If there were more value to the things I was getting, it might be a little more worthwhile as well. I just don't see the quality or value of what they're asking, so I don't buy. The Problem is, people REALLY want that ship, or just have the money to burn, so instead of getting a better alternative which suits more players, it's a continuation of an unpopular practice, fed by the few who can burn their way to the possible prize at the bottom of the box.


    Yes, it's logical. Yes, it makes them money with minimal to no effort. But there are plenty of better options that are going untried, and it's a shame that Cryptic isn't branching out more or evolving with the needs of the fanbase.
  • ursusmorologusursusmorologus Member Posts: 5,328 Arc User
    edited March 2015
    fatman592 wrote: »
    Pretty sure the only people complaining about the new JHAS are the people who own the old JHAS.

    Can't say I care at all about this announcement.

    I don't like the new one, and I don't have the old one. I did not like the old one either. I do not like powercreep for $$ as a design crutch.

    OP, the issue isn't the randomness, its that it exists. Balance and consistency are important. This ship and other things like it (eg Romulan Superior Operative, among many others) demonstrate a complete disregard for those principles.

    Nobody who's complaining about it is complaining about the randomness of the reward, well nobody I've read anyway
  • millimidgetmillimidget Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited March 2015
    fatman592 wrote: »
    Pretty sure the only people complaining about the new JHAS are the people who own the old JHAS.
    Sure sounds like it.
    fatman592 wrote: »
    Can't say I care at all about this announcement.
    It's not like I had the old one, or will have the new one, or will likely ever have a lockbox ship.
    "Tolerance and apathy are the last virtues of a dying society." - Aristotle
  • mhall85mhall85 Member Posts: 2,852 Arc User1
    edited March 2015
    Yep, I have no problems with what you said, OP.

    I do think it was wildly unnecessary to remake the Bug, though. Give us something else.

    I sat on a pile of ZEN for this moment... I was hoping it wasn't coming, but it did. I would have rather dumped that ZEN into a T6 Defiant, but nope.
    d87926bd02aaa4eb12e2bb0fbc1f7061.jpg
  • neoakiraiineoakiraii Member Posts: 7,468 Arc User
    edited March 2015
    My problem with the whine is, if no one was willing to buy it Cryptic would not sell it, but people keep buying it so why would cryptic not slap a price tag and sell it.
    GwaoHAD.png
  • gradiigradii Member Posts: 2,824 Arc User
    edited March 2015
    YOU BOTH SMELL FUNNY, AND I LIKE CHEESE!!!11!1!

    If you don't like cheeses then you should go play hello kitty....

    (lactose intolerant people get a pass)



    Personally (and a little more seriously) I can understand why they do it, I just never liked that they do it. Often, I find the odds are too against me, so buying into things like this or the lock boxes just become an overly expensive waste. Others, with much better luck, wouldn't see that as an issue.

    Yes, it makes money, but really, I feel like there are better ways of doing it. It's not the what, but the how which bothers me. I don't want to speak for anyone else, but I would much rather have a guaranteed way to get something I want without having it be a blatant cash grab tactic. If there were more value to the things I was getting, it might be a little more worthwhile as well. I just don't see the quality or value of what they're asking, so I don't buy. The Problem is, people REALLY want that ship, or just have the money to burn, so instead of getting a better alternative which suits more players, it's a continuation of an unpopular practice, fed by the few who can burn their way to the possible prize at the bottom of the box.


    Yes, it's logical. Yes, it makes them money with minimal to no effort. But there are plenty of better options that are going untried, and it's a shame that Cryptic isn't branching out more or evolving with the needs of the fanbase.

    So long as the RNG ships go in the lobi store once the lockbox rotates its all cool with me.

    "He shall be my finest warrior, this generic man who was forced upon me.
    Like a badass I shall make him look, and in the furnace of war I shall forge him.
    he shall be of iron will and steely sinew.
    In great armour I shall clad him and with the mightiest weapons he shall be armed.
    He will be untouched by plague or disease; no sickness shall blight him.
    He shall have such tactics, strategies and machines that no foe will best him in battle.
    He is my answer to cryptic logic, he is the Defender of my Romulan Crew.
    He is Tovan Khev... and he shall know no fear."
  • thatcursedwolfthatcursedwolf Member Posts: 1,617 Arc User
    edited March 2015
    With the SuperBug promo coming out, I think its important that people take a moment to think about *why* things like this have to come from RNG packs. It isn't venality on the part of the developers, there is a logical reason for why it is best for players and the community that it works this way.


    There are three good outcomes to look for with prize ships in STO.

    1) The prize ships are rare and desirable.
    -If nothing is rare and desirable, the game is tepid and boring.

    2) Everyone has a chance to get one. -If not everyone has a chance to get one, it is unfair, and pay2win.

    3) The company earns revenue and profit. -This is absolutely necessary for the game to continue being run. Business has to earn profit.

    If I desire it I don't care how common it is.

    This is my X. There are many like it but this one is mine.
    This is my Risian Corvette. There are many like it, but this one is mine.
  • lindalefflindaleff Member Posts: 3,734 Arc User
    edited March 2015
    Here is where stats don't work. If the chances are 1/100, then you buy a pack, and it will be that 1%. You buy another pack, and that is the 2%. You get to the 75th pack, and that is 75%. You get all the way to the 90th pack, and it is a 90%. So, if you buy 100 packs, then the 100th is a guaranteed ship. WRONG!

    Box 10 is 1%
    Box 20 is 1%.
    Box 45 is 1%.
    Box 96 is 1%

    It is a slots machine, and the odds favour the house. I will 100% guarantee you; you WILL buy 400 boxes, and not get a single ship. Don't waste your money on a gamble. If you are bound and determined to spend money, just buy keys, sell those keys, and buy the ship off the Exchange. Never do anything unless you have a 100% guarantee to get the thing, or a 100% guarantee for no-questions-asked refund, neither of which STO will ever dream of giving you. So do yourself a massive favour, and simply buy the ship off the Exchange.
    I completed a 2-man CSE, ISE, and KASE, Optionals included. And I soloed Winter Invasion.
    My Ship Builds: USS Conqueror, HMS Victorious, HMS Concord, ISS Queen Elizabeth, Black Widow III
    Click here to view my DeviantArt.
  • mustrumridcully0mustrumridcully0 Member Posts: 12,963 Arc User
    edited March 2015
    It still saddens me that what sells best still seems to be power upgrades. People really like to pay or grind for power.

    Cosmetics? Play Style? Nah, who cares. +3 turn rate and +10 Impulse Speed? Now we're talking!


    In the end, maybe players really just get the game they deserve.
    Star Trek Online Advancement: You start with lowbie gear, you end with Lobi gear.
  • chandlerasharichandlerashari Member Posts: 348 Arc User
    edited March 2015
    All very true points, but they couldve not made it related to the bug.

    Relating it to the bug leaves a bad taste for the old players (even me! And im an rper, with no interest in putting my FED capn on a DOMINION ship)

    Make it something new yknow?
  • chandlerasharichandlerashari Member Posts: 348 Arc User
    edited March 2015
    It still saddens me that what sells best still seems to be power upgrades. People really like to pay or grind for power.

    Cosmetics? Play Style? Nah, who cares. +3 turn rate and +10 Impulse Speed? Now we're talking!


    In the end, maybe players really just get the game they deserve.

    Power is most enticing aspect of gaming (of any kind). It shouldnt be surprising that it is the easiest to monetize.

    bit of a tangent but i wish theyd consider adding the extra boff slots for t5u, and make the starshilp traits a bit more...powerful.

    while ill fly a true fed ship allday damn the traits, most dont settle for that and is willing to fly a ship they had no knowledge of or even affinity towards just because its powerful.

    Forgot where i was going with this lol
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  • baconmaesterbaconmaester Member Posts: 110 Arc User
    edited March 2015
    My only issues with the RNG Lockbox ships is

    1.) These are Alien ships. I wouldnt care as much if there was a 'Be a Fed, Be a Klink, Be a Rom, Be Freelance'. But instead you dont have that last option and it annoys the **** out of me that Fed Officers are flying these ships in and around ESD/Sol. If there was the Freelance angle Id be less annoyed with this. But nonetheless this is something of a personal grievance with the game and hence Im not going to impose my opinion onto someone else that chooses to fly those ships.

    2.) This is nothing more then a gambling mechanic that, through the use of lawyers, has avoided the gambling laws in the US atleast. A video game should be for fun and while I dont begrudge anyone that feels gambling is fun. I personally feel it is an addiction, and because of this when a company willingly addeds such a mechanic to a video game seeking to capitalize on peoples addictions. It bothers me.

    Other then that. Fly your ship. Enjoy it while it lasts as it really is a flavor of the lockbox sort of deal. Because the next Lockbox will more then likely introduce the next big thing.

    My personal opinion on the T6 JHSS is that it wont be the super amazing starship that everyone thinks itll be. There will be just enough to it when it comes to the JHSS that people will definitely seek it out. But it wont be so OP that if you dont have it youll be suffering. I do not believe this will be a repeat of the JHAS back when Lockboxes were fresh and new. The JHAS at the time was a part of a new breed of Ships in the game and because of the current state of the game and the number of Lockbox ships and T6 ships with attached consoles the JHSS will not have the advantage that the JHAS had.
  • thlaylierahthlaylierah Member Posts: 2,991 Arc User
    edited March 2015
    How about they do both the scambling box and put the ship in the C-Store?

    People would still try to get the ship cheaper, It's human nature.

    That way everyone who doesn't gamble might buy the ship and they could make even more money than relying on fleecing the addicted.
  • jellico1jellico1 Member Posts: 2,719
    edited March 2015
    Its another alien ship

    The ships we have totally over power PvE as it is

    So it isn't a interesting ship......must be a new PvP ship like the old bug was

    Have fun with it boys !
    Jellico....Engineer ground.....Da'val Romulan space Sci
    Saphire.. Science ground......Ko'el Romulan space Tac
    Leva........Tactical ground.....Koj Romulan space Eng

    JJ-Verse will never be Canon or considered Lore...It will always be JJ-Verse
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  • lindalefflindaleff Member Posts: 3,734 Arc User
    edited March 2015
    I was thinking closer to the 3,000 cost of the other T6 ships. But yes. Selling the ship by itself is a much better option.
    What kind of guarantee are you offering?
    I mean like the way you can go directly to the Ships tab, and buy whatever ship you want. I want the Intrepid pack, so I buy the Intrepid pack. I would even settle for "Hey! Do this thing every day, earn a shiny thing, and cash in 20 shiny things to get a shiny new ship!" At least obtaining the event ships has a 100% guarantee if you are willing to spend 5 minutes a day to run the mission.

    So, Cryptic can make the Strike Ship, or the Elachi Dreadnought, available in the C-Store, but have it only available for a week. That will give everyone plenty of time to spend their money, and be guaranteed to get the ship.

    But let's say you make a trip to Vegas. You WILL dump hundreds of dollars into the slots machines, and get pennys in return. And forensic investigations have revealed that some of those machines are specifically rigged to NOT land on the winning combination. At current, that is what these crafting boxes do. You open 20 boxes, and all you get is Lobi from every one.
    I completed a 2-man CSE, ISE, and KASE, Optionals included. And I soloed Winter Invasion.
    My Ship Builds: USS Conqueror, HMS Victorious, HMS Concord, ISS Queen Elizabeth, Black Widow III
    Click here to view my DeviantArt.
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  • lindalefflindaleff Member Posts: 3,734 Arc User
    edited March 2015
    I am mainly angry about how the Strike Ship is nothing more than a T6 Bugship. Instead of reusing something, Cryptic should have used the Jem'Hadar Battleship instead.
    Making them c-store only, and only for a limited time, dramatically limits the number of people who can get one.
    As for the C-Store part, the crafting boxes, keys, and various other C-Store stuffs are tradeable, so I do see the value of having being able to sell the ship on the Exchange. But as for only being available for a limited time, that is the point. You don't want EVERYONE to have one, just like you don't want EVERYONE to be using [insert OP console].
    I'm not sure if you know how the RNG mechanic works. Each time you open a box, you have a 1/90 chance of getting the prize ship from it.
    As I pointed out in my other post, the 25th box is 1%, the 75th box is 1%. The 100th box is 1%. So you can and WILL open 100 boxes and not get a ship. It is gambling. Simple as that.
    Also, I once won 980 dollars on a 1$ roll on a slot machine.
    If that is true, then I congratulate you.
    Obtaining one of the promo ships has a 100% guarantee if you buy it from someone who won it.
    That is why I always tell everyone to use the money to buy a bunch of keys. Sell those keys, and you can buy the ship. 100% guaranteed.
    Why is it 500m ec and not 100 ec? Because it is rare and desirable. We should want rare and desirable things in the game, because otherwise it is tepid, everyone is the same.
    Like I said, keep it only available for a limited time. Jem'Hadar Dreadnoughts are available virtually indefinately. But Elachi Dreadnoughts were only available for a few weeks.
    A guy with only 10m ec can open a couple packs and get lucky, like winning a lottery. he can sell the ship to someone who wants it, and use the proceeds to get ships or gear that he wants, in that way, everyone benefits.
    Most likely, he will only waste that 10 million, and not get a single ship. I know that is harsh, but it is the realistic truth. And I know this from experience. Way back when, I made the mistake of dumping $100+ into STO, and only got duty officers and Lobi, not even one single Bugship, not one. If I had bought keys to sell, or if the ship had been available in the C-Store for only one week, I could have gotten one for each character for the same amount of money.
    I completed a 2-man CSE, ISE, and KASE, Optionals included. And I soloed Winter Invasion.
    My Ship Builds: USS Conqueror, HMS Victorious, HMS Concord, ISS Queen Elizabeth, Black Widow III
    Click here to view my DeviantArt.
  • alex284alex284 Member Posts: 366 Arc User
    edited March 2015
    I wouldn't think anything of it if Cryptic published the probability of getting one of these ships out of a pack.

    Even people on this thread (who are probably more knowledgeable about game mechanics than the average player is) are overestimating the chance of getting one of these ships.

    The ships in lockboxes have a drop rate of around 0.0041. The JHAS was estimated (by players on tribble) to drop around 0.5% of the time, so about the same as a lockbox ship.

    And a couple replies above me there is someone saying that the chance of winning a JHAS is 1/90. Um, you're over 3 times our best guess of that probability.

    I ask people in-game what they think the chance of winning one of these ships is and they usually say 5 to 10%. In other words, they overestimate their odds by 12 to 24 times.

    I know, I know, the usual response when someone doesn't win after spending $200 on keys is "You only bought a chaaaaaaaaaaance to win a ship," as if the probability doesn't matter. But if it didn't matter at all, then why not publish the number?
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  • alex284alex284 Member Posts: 366 Arc User
    edited March 2015
    I wouldn't have an issue with them putting it and the other prize ships in the c-store for something like 90x the cost of an R&D promo pack, to reflect the 1/90 chance of getting it.

    250 x90 = 22,500z

    Where did you get that 1/90 number? If that's real, then the chance of getting a JHSS is 2 to 3 times the chance of getting a JHAS or any lockbox ship.

    Our best guess as to previous probabilities was 0.41%, or 1/244. That may have changed, so could you link?
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  • alex284alex284 Member Posts: 366 Arc User
    edited March 2015
    In my tribble testing, 1700 bug ship promo packs gave 17 bug ships.

    The conventional wisdom from people i believe is that the odds are something like 1/100. This is based both on testing at large scale and also at the statement that promo pack odds were normalized to lockbox odds based on the difference in price between a promo pack and a key.

    Also, during promos, the price of the prize ship makes the expected value of opening a promo pack very similar to the exchange rate for the packs, if the odds are approximately 1/100.

    Someone else got 0.5%: http://sto-forum.perfectworld.com/showthread.php?t=246648

    Also, the exchange prices are totally messed up because players are not rational economic agents. Take the packs that give kits, for example. Right now the Xindi kits prize pack sells for 60,000 ec, but you're not going to get more than 10,000 ec for the kit that's inside. I could find dozens of such examples. (and even if people were pricing the ships they win out of the packs rationally, the price would be much lower than 1/p*(price of pack) because you still get RnD mats out of the packs.)

    Not saying that I'm right, not at all. You very well could be. This is why Cryptic should publish the number.
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