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Why I think the devs feel DR has been successful
vegeta50024
Member Posts: 2,335 Arc User
It's been 2 months now since Delta Rising has been out and in that time, I have seen people disagree with the devs on what they call a successful expansion, continually linking that chart from steam. Now, I know that for the players, this is the only real visible piece of player population information that they have access to, but it's really not a reflection of the entire playerbase. The true number is only known by the devs.
About two weeks ago, Priority One had Al Rivera on the show, and this whole topic was addressed by him somewhat on the show. I listened to that show and what I got from Al's interview was that their measure of Delta Rising's success was actually based on a couple of things. The first, which I know people will probably say is their number one motivation is lately, is money. The second is the developer's records of people logging in to play the game.
Now, we know that people were purchasing the Delta Rising operations pack prior to the launch of the expansion based on the number of people that said they purchased the pack, even though they knew what they were going to be facing on launch day. We do not know though how many people have actually purchased the pack; that information is only known by the devs. The only way we will be able to know how successful this endeavor has been is if the next earnings report shows a rebound from this last quarter.
Al goes on to say in the interview about the concerns that players have with the visible numbers and the difference between Legacy of Romulus and the Delta Rising launch numbers. If anyone looks at the steam chart, they see a huge bump (LoR) and then a tiny bump further down that is closer to the present (DR). Al states that the difference of the numbers is primarily due to the circumstances that surround the expansions.
LoR was the first time that we seen a new faction that has been requested for years to be added. In addition, the Klingons went from having been locked behind a federation character since STO went F2P to being able to be picked and leveled from 1-50 along side the Federation and Romulan character choices, in order to give new players a choice of what kind of character they want to play. Thus, the draw of the expansion was primarily for new players.
Delta Rising on the other hand was developed more for the current players, due to the fact that new players cannot access the content until they reach level 50. The major draw to the expansion were already existing players. Not there's nothing stopping new players from seeing the delta rising operations pack and purchasing it ahead of time so that when they finally get to the level that they need to use anything from the pack, they have it available to them.
Now I know that in the end, I'll probably be labeled as a cryptic fanboy, a white knight, etc. I honestly don't care what you may call me, because no matter what, I will continue to stand by and watch this game continue to be developed and grow, no matter how many people feel the game is being ruined. If Season 8 (famous for the dinos with lasers controversy), the big change to the anniversary (introduction of a grind in order to get a ship that got rewarded in the past for mission completion) and the obvious disgust of this expansion have not yet caused development to cease on this game, then who knows what will. If you have made it this far, thank you for reading.
About two weeks ago, Priority One had Al Rivera on the show, and this whole topic was addressed by him somewhat on the show. I listened to that show and what I got from Al's interview was that their measure of Delta Rising's success was actually based on a couple of things. The first, which I know people will probably say is their number one motivation is lately, is money. The second is the developer's records of people logging in to play the game.
Now, we know that people were purchasing the Delta Rising operations pack prior to the launch of the expansion based on the number of people that said they purchased the pack, even though they knew what they were going to be facing on launch day. We do not know though how many people have actually purchased the pack; that information is only known by the devs. The only way we will be able to know how successful this endeavor has been is if the next earnings report shows a rebound from this last quarter.
Al goes on to say in the interview about the concerns that players have with the visible numbers and the difference between Legacy of Romulus and the Delta Rising launch numbers. If anyone looks at the steam chart, they see a huge bump (LoR) and then a tiny bump further down that is closer to the present (DR). Al states that the difference of the numbers is primarily due to the circumstances that surround the expansions.
LoR was the first time that we seen a new faction that has been requested for years to be added. In addition, the Klingons went from having been locked behind a federation character since STO went F2P to being able to be picked and leveled from 1-50 along side the Federation and Romulan character choices, in order to give new players a choice of what kind of character they want to play. Thus, the draw of the expansion was primarily for new players.
Delta Rising on the other hand was developed more for the current players, due to the fact that new players cannot access the content until they reach level 50. The major draw to the expansion were already existing players. Not there's nothing stopping new players from seeing the delta rising operations pack and purchasing it ahead of time so that when they finally get to the level that they need to use anything from the pack, they have it available to them.
Now I know that in the end, I'll probably be labeled as a cryptic fanboy, a white knight, etc. I honestly don't care what you may call me, because no matter what, I will continue to stand by and watch this game continue to be developed and grow, no matter how many people feel the game is being ruined. If Season 8 (famous for the dinos with lasers controversy), the big change to the anniversary (introduction of a grind in order to get a ship that got rewarded in the past for mission completion) and the obvious disgust of this expansion have not yet caused development to cease on this game, then who knows what will. If you have made it this far, thank you for reading.
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I look at a different metric. Most of the improved income came from the upgrades the hard core gang engaged in in the last 5 weeks. Lets be honest... all those epic items didn't come from thin air. Meanwhile, the player base has shrunk.
How will sales look next quarter, and the one after that? Now that they've hit a new financial high, is it sustainable?
A: "X doesn't work very well, this expansion isn't good"
B: "But Cryptic says it's the most successful launch ever and the players love it!"
A: "Sorry not buying it... my fleet's dead, the queues are empty... it's just not happening"
B: "Statistics or it's just your opinion!"
A: "Well, these Steam stats are the only ones I can find, and they're not showing things working as well as is being made out..."
B: "Ah yes but you can't go on the basis of that because Cryptic said it doesn't work because reasons!"
For what they are, I think the stats help demonstrate that Cryptic's PR spin is just that, but doesn't give us much else. Of course, if people want to ignore it, they're welcome so long as they realize it means they've got nothing at all to go on.
Ultimately however, they're a bit of a red herring to the real issues that were being discussed.
I can tell by the sheer number of T6 ships I see flying around. It's all about sales and from that perspective it's been an unquestionable success.
The concern is the fact that a lot of players don't seem happy and over time that's going to translate to reduced spending. It's only then that you will see things start to change.
As long as people are spending, DR will be considered a success. It really is just that simple.
Conversely, there's absolutely no doubt the game's population has declined sharply. I'd say by about a third, based on our fleet membership levels.
No matter what the spin doctors say.
The average players been declining on Steam. My fleets activity dropped over 60% plus the half a dozen signs from elsewhere.
Cryptic really need to do something fast so not a lot of people leave the game doing the Holiday week.
So, as you can see, all your fleet membership tells you is how many of your fleeties are still in the fleet - not even how many are still playing, because you don't have to be in a fleet to play. And it doesn't even begin to take into account folks who don't join fleets in the first place.
When I go to DS9 and I don't see overlapping ships of all descriptions cluttering the sky, maybe then I'll worry.
^^ This.
I never truly believed the decline, until our resident spin doctor started saying the queues weren't really empty, but only looked that way. They need to stop the exodus, fast. Here's 2 ways:
* Cut Upgrade Dilithium cost in half;
* Undo any and all XP nerfs.
And, as a general rule of thumb, don't keep treating your customers like your enemy, that you feel you have to stifle/nerf at every corner. 'Snowgate' would be the latest example of that. Next time people are having 17x as much fun as elsewhere, let them!
i think fleet activity is still a pretty useful measure. there arent a lot of active kdf fleets, so when i see the Beautiful fleets slowing down and their chatter getting quieter, its a bit alarming. its not a case of people leaving the fleets, they are just going longer and longer between logins. they seem to be slowly disengaging from sto...
ive been seeing the same thing happening to the NoP channel, with the number of active members decreasing while the overall number seems to grow. im not sure how i can interpret that other than member attrition is outpacing member acquisition. i certainly dont think people are simply dumping the channel.
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As far as determining the status of the game using Steamcharts is concerned, it only reveals trends. It doesn't tell how many people played the game for that day. Currently, lots of players run the race and do their doffing and log out. Therefore, lots of players are logging in each day, but spending only half an hour in the game. Steamcharts just shows how many people are logged in using Steam for that particular moment so for the day it might show 1000 players, but 20,000 played the game for that day.
Cryptic obviously knows what the actual numbers, but due to obvious reasons won't reveal them to us. If they did and players saw that there was a 500 player drop for a particular day, then some players would say that STO is losing players and the game is doomed without realizing that a certain popular game came out that day.
As to all those T6 ships you see around, how many of those are from people who preordered or launch-day-purchased those new ships based on high expectations, but then found that DR wasn't LOR part 2? Probably a fair chunk. They still have the ship so may as well use it, but are they gonna keep purchasing stuff? The questions it not whether DR's launch sold stuff, but whether it continues or people get ticked and close their wallets. Its like a movie where the first one was amazing, everyone preordered tickets for the sequel only for it to suck but make a lot of money anyways, but then Part 3 absolutely tanking. I've no problem believing in DR's short term success, but long term I'd be surprised.
Still, I do actually hope that the game succeeds; it merely has not done so in either Season 9.5 or Delta Rising (from my perspective). If there are some mysterious measurements that show a better outcome than the Friends and Fleet players that no longer show up, more power to them. My criticism of aspects of Delta Rising does not stem from a desire to see the devs fail at their work, but rather from a desire to see them succeed.
That quote would have died and been forgotten if Geko hadn't said it 3 or 4 times in a row in a podcast a few days later, followed quickly by this gem: "the STF queues aren't empty, it's a reporting error"
Oh, and then came the admission that he measured Delta Rising's success purely by the amount of money taken.
Free Tibet!
The DR stuff interested me enough to give STO a third try and Im loving it!, so much so I got three other friends to give it another try and they are also enjoying what STO is now loads of content from a new players view and interesting end game content.
The grind I hear people talk about doesn't seem to be there for new characters Ive gone through all the episodes up to delta rising (just starting that) and my character is level 55 (i have a second that is 57 and 50-57 was just the mirror event!)
Well going to stop here as im rambling but yeah we are enjoying STO and also just to point out none of us use STEAM for STO we use Arc! I never use steam for my MMO's and I know Im not alone it that so using steam stats all that tells you is how many people who use steam for STO that have left.
The reason you don't know what grind everyone's talking about is because you aren't at level 60 yet.
My condolences in advance.
Free Tibet!
Al said a lot of things in that interview , one of which was that LoR was intended for new players while DR was intended for Lvl 50 players .
Now I have leveled a new toon after DR hit and if I was a new player, my leveling experience would be fine .
There is no XP grind for the new player to get to Lvl 60 .
So my question is, if DR was intended for Lvl 50 players, then how come it is those players who get an insane grind served up to them, with a nice side dish of nerfs, while it is the new player that gets the "smooth experience" -- of a sort .
And by "of a sort" I mean that things were dandy until I hit DR with my under geared new toon, but if I had not had existing toons that could funnel me gear to take on the Vadwaar , I would have been slaughtered many times over ... -- as a new and under geared toon .
So from those two standpoints , both the newbie and the "vet" with the existing Lvl 50 toon -- they both get kicked in the privates by DR .
The above was my main point but there are many other issues that DR came with that for the sake of the size of this post I won't go into , so I'll just say this:
Apart from the false promotion above in regards to DR being for existing players , I also have a major issue with the size of DR .
Simply put DR (12 missions + 6 patrols) is nowhere near the 40+ missions that LoR had .
Many will claim that that had to do with the price tag of the voice actors .
Judging from Al's words as well as of the Cryptic story content authors -- the number of voice actors was very much in flux and things were changed around in the story depending on who they also managed to sign on .
That to me says that the characters were shuffeled around but the main story remained ... , meaning that the number of missions was always intended to be this low .
And that is another reason I'm not happy with DR ... , which when you look at it objectively, it has a little over 5 Levels of content in it, but it's branded as a 10 Level expansion when it is not .
September 2014: 17742
October 2014: 2536.0
November 2014: 2156
September 2013: 1,547.7
October 2013: 1,646.5
November: 2029.1
So if you're think the game is dying because it has bit more players after Delta Rising than the last year the same time, I suspect you're wrong.
Which is always repeated without the context. At the time of the interview, Geko not only said that there was a reporting error, he also said that the reporting error was fixed. That means if he dismisses any claims on empty queues, he dismissed them not categorally - he just said that there was a time after the release where the data players would see was simply wrong, but that doesn't mean it's wrong forever.
The queues are a wee longer empty than just 1 day.
I would prefer they came clean. That's likely not going to happen. So, I say, "BS away, just so long as you're fixing the problem!" I.e. They don't have to tell me why the queues are empty, just take steps to get them filled again.
Well, he can't have his cookie and eat it. Either the alleged 'reporting error' is fixed now, meaning the queues are currently truly empty, or the reporting bug was not fixed, and the queues currently only look empty. The good doctor needs to make up his mind about what spin he wants to put on this.
Meanwhile, I just waited >15 mins to get queued for CSA. Guess which story my EC is on!?
Or players are just not using the queues anymore and are using STF channels to get their team organized.
Dunno about the others, but EliteSTF and PublicESTF are ridiculously slow, and PublicNWS I've seen one game formed there in the last month. Not sure what other public channels there are.
STF channels existed long before DR. But let's face it, this is, and remains, a casual game. People, on a whole, don't get organized enough to suddenly all go premade teams. I'm sure a lot do, but the point is: heretofore there were enough surplus players around not to notice the absence of premades from the PUG. So, I say the empty queues are still indicative of the player population having thinned out significantly.
I loved PublicNWS, it was always busy. I got my "Kirk's Protege" accolade with a team from that channel. Good times.
It's totally deserted now.
Free Tibet!
Several of the 10k+ channels I'm in are hopelessly abandoned too. Unless people all moved to secret channels I'm unaware of, I say the emptiness of these STF channels is consistent with what I see happening in the queues.
I agree completely.
That's more or less what I was attempting to say, right now DR appears to be a success based on sales, but as you accurately pointed out, a good deal of those sales occurred pre-launch. For me, once DR launched I purchased a Guardian and a Phantom on the first day. I was hyped up for the launch, I loved the Guardian (still do) and wanted the Phantom trait.
Since the first couple days of DR, I have not only purchased nothing additional but have cancelled my subscription. I believe that currently, Cryptic is judging the success of the expansion solely by inflated pre launch numbers. As time goes on, they will start to see the real trend since DR and that's one of an unhappy player base.
I still believe that overall, DR is a good expansion. I have really enjoyed a lot of it, if they would just stop taking away from the players at every turn, it would be a really good product. Stop reducing rewards, stop reducing XP, stop increasing costs and mostly as someone said earlier.. stop making the players your enemy.
Honestly, I feel they could turn DR from sub standard to a genuine success in 1 single patch. Question is, will their 'metrics' tell them the real story in time to keep everyone from leaving the game?
Ahh but you forget ... those might be broken too ...
...*caugh-caugh*bul$hit*caught* ...
+1
I felt that I got 'edged out' psychologically by finding that I really didn't find DR itself that engaging (ho hum, not everything is for everyone, so no biggie in itself, just a little disappointing after the hype). So I started to just level up my toons (all nine of them) using my usual array of missions/PvEs/Foundry/Dailies... until that was nerfed beyond recognition. Oh well, I thought, I'll just continue with Doffing at least and wait till the Powers That Be realize that's a bit silly... until that was nerfed beyond recognition.
So apart from Foundry, there's literally nothing that I enjoyed doing that I either can do, or at least get rewarded enough to do, that makes it worthwhile logging in. Foundry can be, but "Great Foundry Missions" aren't posted every day, so I haven't logged in for about two weeks now. And that's after playing daily for years.
Still, waiting to see if they come to their senses in maybe six months.
I agree with this overall.
What it comes down to for me is that their business model is broken.
And that is the significance for much of the PWE stock losses as well. Well, two main causes there. One is the drying up of their stock buyback plan. You won't see many analysts cite something like that because Wall Street likes to claim buybacks work when a company is undervalued. There's mounting academic research to dispute this and claim it leads to inflated price.
So what's going on with PWE is PARTLY that their stock is coming down from an artificially inflated value. And as it goes down, this has investors scared.
A big part is that PWE can't retain players. China is a big part of that but the philosophies that are hurting China could hurting Cryptic's games as well. Neverwinter has also had a decline on the Steam Charts.
It's not JUST PWE games. You know who else dropped? Age of Conan. Albion. Left 2 Dead 2. Team Fortress 2.
It's also not a seasonal drop. STO typically goes up this time of year.
You know who's seen an increase? World of ********. A P2P subscription game.
Many F2P games are up but they're generally not the model used here.
PWE Robert Xiao said a few months ago that he expects Chinese and western players' styles to merge as globalization continues.
My take is that probably IS happening. But perhaps in an unexpected way.
I think rising incomes are making Chinese gamers more like American gamers. And that American gamers were more like Chinese gamers because of the global recession.
But that it has very little to do with east vs. west aside from some Chinese demographics hiding the churn because of their disproportionately young and male population during the rise of the PWE model.
As people continue to recover economically and as Chinese incomes grow, I think the sub model and F2P models that approximate sub value will return to dominance, albeit with more F2P hybridization. Hybrid will be the name of the game, I think, as will content selling in the long run.
The PWE model's sweep of success may have been largely a blip. A blip with some great ideas in there but not representative of normal market conditions.
Maybe for the traditional PWE model to work, you need whales and minnows. And as the economy recovers, the minnows can go from F2P games back to sub or paid content expansion games where they get better value.
I went to DS9 the other day. There were a grand total of six ships on the map. Never, ever seen it that empty.
This character is why I don't play my Romulan any more. Tovan Khev is NOT my BFF! Get him off my bridge!
At first, I thought that might be a contributing factor to the decline of the pugs, but when they lowered the crafting materials requirement and then put the new "lobi ship" in the crafting boxes, it clicked.
When they lowered the crafting materials requirement they said that there wasn't as many crafting materials in circulation as they expected, now as the Advanced and Elites are a major, if not the major, source of very rare materials, I believe this shows that they were not expecting the huge backlash against the difficulty changes. So, the queues look dead, most likely because the queues are dead.
Also, the inclusion of the "lobi ship" in the crafting boxes looks like it is intended to have the additional knock on effect of making it easier for players without much spare EC to upgrade (particularly the recently boosted weapons), so spending more dil, needing more zen, therefore increasing cash flow again.
If you sit back and look at just about everything they are doing recently it all centres on raising their cash flow as much as possible.
So probably, they are still doing fairly well at the moment, but in the long term, trying to get the same amount of cash out of a dwindling player base means the amount they need out of each individual goes up proportionally.
As I doubt that will work for very long, eventually I believe they will address the long list of issues we've all been commenting on, hopefully not too little too late.