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Perfect World Q3 2014 earnings Report - Profits Down - U.S. Holdings Blamed

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  • leviathan99#2867 leviathan99 Member Posts: 7,747 Arc User
    edited November 2014
    stf65 wrote: »
    pw's r&d's been restructured into 5 different divisions now. it has nothing to do with your wild speculation of cryptic's ownership changing in any way.

    I've seen several investment analysts who follow PWE and who interpret that to mean 5 game studios owned by PWE, as PWE typically defined their wholly owned subsidiary game studios as R&D divisions.

    Now, one analyst suggested that the spun off R&D divisions were likely game studios each tasked with developing a single game but Cryptic is small enough that they might fit the bill.
  • stf65stf65 Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited November 2014
    I've seen several investment analysts who follow PWE and who interpret that to mean 5 game studios owned by PWE, as PWE typically defined their wholly owned subsidiary game studios as R&D divisions.

    Now, one analyst suggested that the spun off R&D divisions were likely game studios each tasked with developing a single game but Cryptic is small enough that they might fit the bill.
    Post links to these analysts. talk is way too cheap on this forum and no one makes wild speculations around here more then you do.

    then keep in mind that they've already tolds us in other statements some of these new r&d division: new console games division, new tablet games division, and so on.
  • leviathan99#2867 leviathan99 Member Posts: 7,747 Arc User
    edited November 2014
    I predict a corporate restructure in the near future that will put PWE in more direct control of this game and Cryptic's developers in even less control than they are in now. Of course, the result will be worse than before.

    I think this is pure paranoia of PWE control leading you to think this.

    More control = more liability. It means, for instance, if they closed games down or their approach didn't work, they would carry losses on their books.

    PWE and their investors see much of the future as being in mobile gaming.

    It would be much more likely that they would amicably divest (probably not like the Atari divestment, which was a stripmining, but more like Darden's divestment of Red Lobster, which kept it as a viable business unit until it sold).

    Or that they would outright sell.

    Or that they would spin Cryptic off as a company that they maintain a 51% stake in.

    I find it highly unlikely they would vertically integrate an operation that isn't where their projected competencies lie.

    MAYBE I could see a scenario where they tried to sell the rest of Cryptic while keeping ownership of NW (which they might subcontract Cryptic to run or pay Cryptic a licensing fee for while hiring up staff) mainly based on PW's console presence and Chinese market performance.
  • leviathan99#2867 leviathan99 Member Posts: 7,747 Arc User
    edited November 2014
    stf65 wrote: »
    Post links to these analysts. talk is way too cheap on this forum and no one makes wild speculations around here more then you do.

    then keep in mind that they've already tolds us in other statements some of these new r&d division: new console games division, new tablet games division, and so on.

    First of all, wild speculation is what forums exist for. That shouldn't be a negative thing. Why else would you be here?

    I'm not sure what you're asking for. An "R&D division" (of which they have multiple) for PWE is generally a wholly owned subsidiary game development studio because developing a game is their R&D.


    Here's a couple of articles:

    http://seekingalpha.com/news/2066265-perfect-world-places-r-and-d-teams-within-5-new-subsidiaries
    Perfect World (PWRD -0.2%) states placing its R&D teams within majority-owned subsidiaries will help it "attract and motivate top talent by granting them [a] direct stake in the subsidiaries."

    http://seekingalpha.com/article/2610845-struggles-continue-at-shanda-perfect-world
    Next there's the news from Perfect World, which announced it has moved its game development operations into five new subsidiaries as part of a restructuring of the unit (company announcement). Perfect World said the move is part of an attempt to drive innovation, as employees of the different subsidiaries will be able to receive stakes in those units as part of their compensation. There's no additional detail, but I suspect that each subsidiary is probably based around a team working on an individual game. Thus this new scheme will allow individual team members to profit more directly if their game succeeds.

    http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/perfect-world-announces-rd-restructuring-280622992.html
    BEIJING, Oct. 28, 2014 /PRNewswire/ -- Perfect World Co., Ltd. (NASDAQ: PWRD) ("Perfect World" or the "Company"), a leading online game developer and operator based in China, today announced its restructuring of R&D teams under which five new subsidiaries have been formed. The structure of forming new subsidiaries that are majority-owned by Perfect World is aimed to help attract and motivate top talent by granting them direct stake in the subsidiaries under the new incentive scheme. Perfect World will support these subsidiaries with the Company's proprietary technology, graphic design, integrated platform, distribution channels and other valuable resources. The Company believes that the new structure will help invigorate the game development process, support game design flexibility, allow faster reaction to changing market trends, and boost game development productivity.

    Mr. Robert Xiao, Chief Executive Officer of Perfect World commented, "We believe that our decision to allow R&D teams to establish new subsidiaries will not only encourage our current employees, attract new talent, and help maximize development potential, but also enhance our competitive edge by creating a more flexible structure that helps us to respond more quickly to market trends. In the long term, we believe the restructuring will help accelerate the Company's future growth while simultaneously cultivating a corporate culture that embraces entrepreneurial spirit."

    To establish that "R&D Team" can mean "wholly owned subsidiary game development studio":

    http://www.pwrd.com/html/en/news_mn_120511.html
    "Star Trek Online" is a high-quality game developed by Perfect World's renowned R&D team, Cryptic Studios.

    http://www.ign.com/articles/2011/05/31/perfect-world-buys-cryptic-studios
    "This strategic acquisition will add attractive game titles to our portfolio, which will help us further penetrate into the U.S. and global online game markets. More importantly, Cryptic Studios' highly reputable development team and its technology platform will further strengthen our well-established R&D capabilities. We deem this as another noteworthy achievement of our global expansion efforts."

    http://www.gamesindustry.biz/articles/perfect-world-acquires-majority-stake-in-runic-games
    "I am excited to announce some recent developments on this front. We recently made a strategic investment to acquire a majority stake in Runic Games, Inc. (Runic Games), a top-tier game development studio based in the US, to further strengthen our R&D capabilities."
  • leviathan99#2867 leviathan99 Member Posts: 7,747 Arc User
    edited November 2014
    This was 5 months ago:

    http://www.joystiq.com/2014/06/24/perfect-world-prepping-3-games-for-xbox-one-china-launch/
    Perfect World has 4,700 employees, with roughly 2,000 in R&D doing product development. "An increasing number of those people are working on mobile," Xiao said. With the coming console push, he said the Chinese market is making its way to the global stage.

    "More Chinese types of games - not just stories and characters, but business models as well - can be influential. Chinese gamers have completely different behavior compared to US players. But as the Chinese market gets bigger and stronger, more Chinese types of games will be introduced to the world. Different player behaviors will gradually fuse together, I think. There won't be such a clear line of separation around different parts of the world."

    Now roughly two quarters later, talk is about how the U.S. market is fierce, the U.S. subsidiaries are underperforming in the short term, and has different strategies needed. Most of the excitement around PWE is mobile gaming and that is literally what all the investment groups want to hear about. They practically cut off the PWE board every time they mention MMOs to ask them about mobile gaming.

    Spinning off R&D divisions is stated as being a move to "invigorate the game development process, support game design flexibility, allow faster reaction to changing market trends, and boost game development productivity."

    In short my quick read of the tea leaves here (and that's what you DO when you read these heavily code speak-laced reports) is that they had hoped to convert players to Chinese models to deal with reduced time spent in game, which investors were grumbling about towards the beginning of the year. However, all investors seem to care about is mobile (which paradoxically has more churn) so PWE is looking more that route and spinning off R&D divisions (like Cryptic, if not including Cryptic) to allow those divisions more freedom to design flexibly and react to the U.S. market more directly, while also reducing PWE's stake in an operation that has heavy R&D costs and which does not excite investors as much as mobile games.

    Depending on how that would work, it might actually mean an operational cash shortage (since 49% of the ownership would be with employees) at those divisions who now have to ramp up monetization or close down unprofitable ventures that PWE might have been subsidizing.
  • janus1975janus1975 Member Posts: 739 Arc User
    edited November 2014
    ....

    Great post, thank you for this insight. Makes me sad though. It seems that no matter the problem, the problem in business always boils down to what amounts to losing sight of the vision, executive meddling, reversion to some generic version of the product that isn't really suitable for the specific situation, and finally killed off by excessive greed.
  • leviathan99#2867 leviathan99 Member Posts: 7,747 Arc User
    edited November 2014
  • iconiansiconians Member Posts: 6,987 Arc User
    edited November 2014
    I don't write the press releases!

    If you did, you'd say negative things about the product you're being paid to work on. Just like every other business and corporation in the reality we currently do not exist in and never will.
    ExtxpTp.jpg
  • leviathan99#2867 leviathan99 Member Posts: 7,747 Arc User
    edited November 2014
    iconians wrote: »
    If you did, you'd say negative things about the product you're being paid to work on. Just like every other business and corporation in the reality we currently do not exist in and never will.

    Do you really see my posts as overtly negative?

    I tend to see myself as pretty middle of the road except when responding to "shut up"/"stop whining" (what people online tend to call whining isn't inherently negative, though) posts or what I perceive as isolated issues where someone I feel like there are power issues. That's a minority of my posts, though.
  • mustrumridcully0mustrumridcully0 Member Posts: 12,963 Arc User
    edited November 2014
    I have no doubt STO is going to hurt the next few months cause the asian Grind model is not going to go over as well as they hope. Still STO could scrap out turning a 10% profit and PW would be fine with that... they only care about protecting that D&D licence.
    But whether it happens or not... This is the Q3 earning report, that means it definitely doesn't include Delta Rising's impact, positive or negative. The bean counters are not that fast and can't travel in time.


    Mustrum "Unless that is what R&D is really working on" Ridcully
    Star Trek Online Advancement: You start with lowbie gear, you end with Lobi gear.
  • antoniosalieriantoniosalieri Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited November 2014
    Mustrum "Unless that is what R&D is really working on" Ridcully

    :) that's funny.

    Your right of course no way this report includes Delta. We also know Delta had a big sales bump for the few weeks leading up to it and likely for at least a week or so after. Even if the game drops hard the next few months I think this quarter will look ok.

    Antonio "Just pulling things out my backside" Salieri
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    Dignity and an empty sack is worth the sack.
  • mirrorchaosmirrorchaos Member Posts: 9,844 Arc User
    edited November 2014
    http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/perfect-world-announces-third-quarter-2014-unaudited-financial-results-300001342.html

    From the Report:



    The gaming site 'Massively' also reported:


    It makes one wonder just how successful STO and NeverWinter (the two main U.S. 'Holdings' have actually been of late, So, as the Chinese managers of perfect World continue to direct PWE to take their U.S. games further in the direction of the 'Asian Grinder' paradigm; their concurrent player numbers drop and their profit decreases...

    What will Perfect World management take away from this turn of events in their U.S. subsidiaries run by PWE? Will PWE/Cryptic renew the STO IP rights with CBS when the current licensing term ends?

    media hyperbole, do you have something stronger then eating their scaremongering?
    T6 Miranda Hero Ship FTW.
    Been around since Dec 2010 on STO and bought LTS in Apr 2013 for STO.
  • mustrumridcully0mustrumridcully0 Member Posts: 12,963 Arc User
    edited November 2014
    :) that's funny.

    Your right of course no way this report includes Delta. We also know Delta had a big sales bump for the few weeks leading up to it and likely for at least a week or so after. Even if the game drops hard the next few months I think this quarter will look ok.

    Antonio "Just pulling things out my backside" Salieri

    Though in one regard Delta Rising may be in the numbers - the development phase falls into that quarter, so it could be the expenses caused by DR would be in - but likely not the "record sales".

    Assuming that an expansion pack is more costly than the regular season updates/in addition to those, I figure that could affect the bottom line for Q3 negatively.
    Star Trek Online Advancement: You start with lowbie gear, you end with Lobi gear.
  • leviathan99#2867 leviathan99 Member Posts: 7,747 Arc User
    edited November 2014
    But whether it happens or not... This is the Q3 earning report, that means it definitely doesn't include Delta Rising's impact, positive or negative. The bean counters are not that fast and can't travel in time.


    Mustrum "Unless that is what R&D is really working on" Ridcully

    Right. Cause and effect are important. I think the Q3 and Q2 may tip strategy going INTO DR (particularly the bit in Q2 about PC MMO gamers not spending enough time in game and maybe the R&D restructuring). I don't think they reflect DR's results although you can make guesses at where things will go based on whether DR is a huge success or not.
  • mirrorchaosmirrorchaos Member Posts: 9,844 Arc User
    edited November 2014
    Though in one regard Delta Rising may be in the numbers - the development phase falls into that quarter, so it could be the expenses caused by DR would be in - but likely not the "record sales".

    Assuming that an expansion pack is more costly than the regular season updates/in addition to those, I figure that could affect the bottom line for Q3 negatively.

    actors/actress likeness and an open ended agreement to work with them for trek. imagine it would be expensive hiring 4 well known actors picardo, philips, wang and russ and 2 actress, ryan and crosby. that cant be of been good to the cryptic bank balance.
    T6 Miranda Hero Ship FTW.
    Been around since Dec 2010 on STO and bought LTS in Apr 2013 for STO.
  • antoniosalieriantoniosalieri Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited November 2014
    Though in one regard Delta Rising may be in the numbers - the development phase falls into that quarter, so it could be the expenses caused by DR would be in - but likely not the "record sales".

    Assuming that an expansion pack is more costly than the regular season updates/in addition to those, I figure that could affect the bottom line for Q3 negatively.

    They would hardly be the first company to report a bunch of expenses in a quarter where they knew they could either take the hit or write it off on something else. The advantage being the profits showing in the following quarter would get a massive bump. Hard to say what PW is all reporting. They don't break things down all that closely.
    actors/actress likeness and an open ended agreement to work with them for trek. imagine it would be expensive hiring 4 well known actors picardo, philips, wang and russ and 2 actress, ryan and crosby. that cant be of been good to the cryptic bank balance.

    You may be shocked to find out just how inexpensive everyone of those well known names are. :)

    Picardo and Crosby are both right around 5k for a convention appearance... Wang I'm not sure hes even paid to show up to those they likely just let him keep any $ he makes from autographs. The other 2 have actual acting careers... still at this point there not busy I can't see them being paid crazy amounts. I'm sure they cost a bit more then standard unionized voice actors... still its not the insane amounts of $ I think some people may assume.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    Dignity and an empty sack is worth the sack.
  • kodachikunokodachikuno Member Posts: 6,020 Arc User1
    edited November 2014
    stf65 wrote: »
    i remember reading something on the forum about another star trek mmo coming out set in fluid space dealing with species 8472.

    found the link here http://massively.joystiq.com/2014/06/16/ngames-teases-new-star-trek-mmo/

    this sounds like a facebook or cell phone p.o.s. money grinder honestly. Insert CC to do anything meaningful
  • fovrelfovrel Member Posts: 1,448 Arc User
    edited November 2014
    U.S. holding are Cryptic and Runic. Never heard of Runic. It seems partly ex-Blizzard. Going to try out Torchlight II, single player action, free demo and only 9,99 for full.
  • antoniosalieriantoniosalieri Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited November 2014
    fovrel wrote: »
    U.S. holding are Cryptic and Runic. Never heard of Runic. It seems partly ex-Blizzard. Going to try out Torchlight II, single player action, free demo and only 9,99 for full.

    Torchlight is a very good game.

    If you like that style check out Path of Exiles as well its free.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    Dignity and an empty sack is worth the sack.
  • mirrorchaosmirrorchaos Member Posts: 9,844 Arc User
    edited November 2014
    You may be shocked to find out just how inexpensive everyone of those well known names are. :)

    Picardo and Crosby are both right around 5k for a convention appearance... Wang I'm not sure hes even paid to show up to those they likely just let him keep any $ he makes from autographs. The other 2 have actual acting careers... still at this point there not busy I can't see them being paid crazy amounts. I'm sure they cost a bit more then standard unionized voice actors... still its not the insane amounts of $ I think some people may assume.

    without knowing exactly what they are being paid there is no way to know for sure, shocked or no. but they are still very highly valued in the community, a convention appearance is different from a voice over and likeness as far as the contract may state, again without knowing exactly its really a waste of time assuming further until something solid shows up about how much each one costs or if they went gratis.
    T6 Miranda Hero Ship FTW.
    Been around since Dec 2010 on STO and bought LTS in Apr 2013 for STO.
  • leviathan99#2867 leviathan99 Member Posts: 7,747 Arc User
    edited November 2014
    I think PWE is large relative to STO and, by this point, STO is probably less than half of Cryptic's revenue. So we can make inferences only in a broad and somewhat inaccurate sense. I don't think that means they aren't worth making but things like the voiceover budget, which might even be a one time expense, won't necessarily shape strategy in the long term the way a focus on player time spent as a market share metric or investor enthusiasm for mobile will.
  • leviathan99#2867 leviathan99 Member Posts: 7,747 Arc User
    edited November 2014
    Incidentally, not a dig on STO. Neverwinter has access to more markets than STO.
  • aspartan1aspartan1 Member Posts: 1,054 Arc User
    edited November 2014
    I don't know what any of it means.. but I know that in the face of the constant nerfs I have totally quit spending.

    Like many players, I have decided to withhold my financial support until Cryptic starts actually listening to players.

    The requests are simple, the issues valid. Everyone I know that plays this game has stopped financial support completely.

    They either fix it, or shut it down. Ball is in their court.
    I'm in the same camp. I even stopped logging in. After all the constant disconnects, and the damn timers on everything, the crazy upgrade costs messed up STFs -etc... and a host of other revenue stream enhancements activities have simply compelled me to stop supporting the game.

    I've supported the game since before launch and have continued to do so despite not liking development directions because I support the community and well I hope things would get better or I may be too biased so I'll wait and see type of thinking. I finally ran out of patience. It seems all the money I kept spending was being seen as supporting the the crappy development direction apparently and recently they went all out with the asinine mechanics. I cant take it anymore...

    Hell part of me even hopes CBS gives the license to another developer without the F2P model as a condition.

    On a side note, when I go to Beijing in the near future I hope I have time enough to go to PWE HQ and let them know just how I feel about the handling of the ST license.
    If you are looking for an excellent PvE fleet consider: Omega Combat Division today.
    Former member of the Cryptic Family & Friends Testing Team. Sadly, one day, it simply vanished - without a word or trace...
    Obscurea Chaotica Fleet (KDF), Commander
    ingame: @.Spartan
    Romulan_Republic_logo.png
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  • mirrorchaosmirrorchaos Member Posts: 9,844 Arc User
    edited November 2014
    I think PWE is large relative to STO and, by this point, STO is probably less than half of Cryptic's revenue. So we can make inferences only in a broad and somewhat inaccurate sense. I don't think that means they aren't worth making but things like the voiceover budget, which might even be a one time expense, won't necessarily shape strategy in the long term the way a focus on player time spent as a market share metric or investor enthusiasm for mobile will.

    seems that cryptic has given tim russ 3 and more potential returns to the game, they have done it to denise crosby, michael dorn and now robert picardo with garret wang to return at a later date on the kobali storyline. thats a lot of one time payments for these high profile actors and actress.
    T6 Miranda Hero Ship FTW.
    Been around since Dec 2010 on STO and bought LTS in Apr 2013 for STO.
  • leviathan99#2867 leviathan99 Member Posts: 7,747 Arc User
    edited November 2014
    seems that cryptic has given tim russ 3 and more potential returns to the game, they have done it to denise crosby, michael dorn and now robert picardo with garret wang to return at a later date on the kobali storyline. thats a lot of one time payments for these high profile actors and actress.

    I'm not sure how much they charged. It probably isn't that much. But the game could go on (and probably will at some point) without any voiced update so those fees won't drive STO's financial needs forever. They're also sunk costs, which means they won't factor into future decisions.

    Once Cryptic signs the check, they aren't getting that money back either way. So it won't dictate strategy. If it is a loss, it's a loss.

    What will dictate strategy are ongoing expenses and targets. And those will be set by things like cost of capital. And factoring into that is apparently shareholders using average time spent per player as a marketshare measure. That will cause investors to pull out if they aren't happy which will lower the stock price and raise the cost of capital.

    The problem with using time spent as a marketshare metric is that it goes against the idea of players spending money to save time or, rather, it weights our interests directly against those of the shareholders. I have to say, it makes me inclined to say that, in the future, I'd only play a game by a publicly traded firm if it's subscription based and only consider F2P for privately held companies. Because they're using a game design skewing investment analysis tool.

    Somebody should at the least write an article about that for gaming industry investment circles. Because the analysis tool they're using weights their interests against players and, in doing so, creates stock volatility. Because any action taken to satisfy shareholders on marketshare (as expressed through player logged-in time) comes at the expense of something sold to players (the value of time). Which means: benefit the shareholders, hurt the product, hurt the shareholders longterm.
  • aspartan1aspartan1 Member Posts: 1,054 Arc User
    edited November 2014
    [..]

    The problem with using time spent as a marketshare metric is that it goes against the idea of players spending money to save time or, rather, it weights our interests directly against those of the shareholders. I have to say, it makes me inclined to say that, in the future, I'd only play a game by a publicly traded firm if it's subscription based and only consider F2P for privately held companies. Because they're using a game design skewing investment analysis tool.

    [..]

    You are talking about pure gold here from an industry standards and practices perspective but sadly nearly everyone here would likely not care at all - even Cryptic for that matter methinks.

    Nonetheless it is at its core a good reason for regulation of the industry but sadly that thinking is also wasted here....
    If you are looking for an excellent PvE fleet consider: Omega Combat Division today.
    Former member of the Cryptic Family & Friends Testing Team. Sadly, one day, it simply vanished - without a word or trace...
    Obscurea Chaotica Fleet (KDF), Commander
    ingame: @.Spartan
    Romulan_Republic_logo.png
    Former Alpha & Beta Tester
    Original Cryptic Forum Name: Spartan (member #124)
    The Glorious, Kirk’s Protegè
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