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Is it worth trying for the Bug?

lexusk19lexusk19 Member Posts: 1,430 Arc User
Anyone have numbers on the odds of getting a bug ship from the doff pack?
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  • mightybobcncmightybobcnc Member Posts: 3,354 Arc User
    edited April 2014

    Joined January 2009
    Finger wrote:
    Nitpicking is a time-honored tradition of science fiction. Asking your readers not to worry about the "little things" is like asking a dog not to sniff at people's crotches. If there's something that appears to violate natural laws, then you can expect someone's going to point it out. That's just the way things are.
  • aloishammeraloishammer Member Posts: 3,294 Arc User
    edited April 2014
    lexusk19 wrote: »
    Anyone have numbers on the odds of getting a bug ship from the doff pack?

    Abysmal, of course. :D
  • hravikhravik Member Posts: 1,203 Arc User
    edited April 2014
    Only if you have more money than common sense.
  • protogothprotogoth Member Posts: 2,369 Arc User
    edited April 2014
    It's a coded probability. It doesn't change no matter how few or how many you open. Another person's experience has no relevance.

    Each attempt is statistically independent of every other attempt: you have the same chance on the first as you do on the 1 millionth. See: "Gambler's Fallacy."
  • thecosmic1thecosmic1 Member Posts: 9,365 Arc User
    edited April 2014
    It depends on how many Keys you want to buy. The probability is fixed, with the same odds on the first as the last. Do you feel lucky? That is really all there is to it.
    STO is about my Liberated Borg Federation Captain with his Breen 1st Officer, Jem'Hadar Tactical Officer, Liberated Borg Engineering Officer, Android Ops Officer, Photonic Science Officer, Gorn Science Officer, and Reman Medical Officer jumping into their Jem'Hadar Carrier and flying off to do missions for the new Romulan Empire. But for some players allowing a T5 Connie to be used breaks the canon in the game.
  • paxfederaticapaxfederatica Member Posts: 1,496 Arc User
    edited April 2014
    The Mobius Temporal Destroyer (a Lobi ship) is considered by some to be a poor man's bug ship. IIRC it has somewhat similar stats, bridge stations and console slots as the bug ship. So, what you might consider doing is keep trying the promo packs until you either get a bug ship or reach 800 Lobi, at which point you'd just buy the Mobius instead.
  • voporakvoporak Member Posts: 5,621 Arc User
    edited April 2014
    lexusk19 wrote: »
    Anyone have numbers on the odds of getting a bug ship from the doff pack?

    I just did the easy math in another thread, so here it is.
    voporak wrote: »
    The lockbox odds are .5%, or 1:200. Since JHAS odds are adjusted to be the same relative to price...

    .5/125 = x/275
    137.5 = 125x
    1.1 = x

    The odds of getting a JHAS are 1.1%, or roughly 1 in every 90 packs.
    I ask nothing but that you remember me.
  • colonelchenchuancolonelchenchuan Member Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited April 2014
    protogoth wrote: »
    It's a coded probability. It doesn't change no matter how few or how many you open. Another person's experience has no relevance.

    Each attempt is statistically independent of every other attempt: you have the same chance on the first as you do on the 1 millionth. See: "Gambler's Fallacy."

    I somewhat agree. But IMO they made a decision that there will only X number of ships in the pool. I am not sure the odds aren't tweaked at different times. For instance, it always seems when stuff first comes out the every other person gets one. I think its closer to them running things like carnies rather than actual math.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • edited April 2014
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  • riccardo171riccardo171 Member Posts: 1,802 Arc User
    edited April 2014
    Tried opening a few packs, got nothing and dropped it.

    Spent zen on finishing getting the Scimitar variants which is, imo, a superior ship considering the set. Can your bug BC with shields up? have 5 fore weapons? Singularity powers? Furthermore it costs potentially less and is account-wide, I'd go with this option day and night.

    bug is fine ship, but totally not worth so much investment in it. :)
    The Mobius Temporal Destroyer (a Lobi ship) is considered by some to be a poor man's bug ship. IIRC it has somewhat similar stats, bridge stations and console slots as the bug ship. So, what you might consider doing is keep trying the promo packs until you either get a bug ship or reach 800 Lobi, at which point you'd just buy the Mobius instead.

    Temporal set -> TIF. You're trolling bugs all around :D
  • erei1erei1 Member Posts: 4,081 Arc User
    edited April 2014
    I somewhat agree. But IMO they made a decision that there will only X number of ships in the pool. I am not sure the odds aren't tweaked at different times. For instance, it always seems when stuff first comes out the every other person gets one. I think its closer to them running things like carnies rather than actual math.
    And I disagree. I've opened hundreds of box (around 200), and most of them when the lockbox was very new (IE I had the key in the bank, waiting for the box).

    Not a single ship. I had a few "good"items, like a plasmonic leach console and helmsman (which I was stupid enough to sell when everyone was selling, for a ridiculously low price).

    Luck and all that.

    On the other hand, when I was opening the temporal box, I ra out of keys, and sold my remaining boxes (2 of them). Someone bought both of them. A few second later, I saw the message saying he won the temporal ship.
    This is how I felt.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
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