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Bug Ship Odds 1:90 (~$250 USD)
kobayashikumiho
Member Posts: 8 Arc User
I work in the financial sector so I use Excel for everything related to PWI both on STO as well as NW. I keep really detailed records of every chance based thing purchased. The $250 or 1:250 per top prize is a very common theme on both of the games across most of the lottery based prizes.
When the Bug ship first came out, it was 125 Zen ($1.25 USD) to get a winter box and reports were that it was 1:250 boxes to get a ship. Now since the Doff packs are 275 Zen ($2.75 USD) and the odds have been adjusted to account for this, it takes 90.9 Doff packs to get 1 Bug ship.
Today I received the Bug ship on Doff pack 90. (I opened 43 packs today and had Excel records from previous attempts during previous promotions amounting to another 47.)
90 Doff packs at $2.75 USD is $247.50.
I think this information is useful for people to know because it helps them make a more informed decision prior to engaging in a lottery mechanic.
I haven't opened any lock boxes on STO, but I have on Neverwinter. Results on that game confirm the general 1:250 premise.
284 Keys
1 Thayan Book of the Dead
0 Giant Beetle
0 Legendary Beetle
109 Keys
0 Apparatus of K
0 Rust Monster
920 Keys
0 Owlbear
4 Puesdodragon
380 Keys
1 Nightmare
TOTAL KEYS: 1,693 ($2,116.25 USD)
TOTAL PRIZES: 6
Odds: 1/282.
When the Bug ship first came out, it was 125 Zen ($1.25 USD) to get a winter box and reports were that it was 1:250 boxes to get a ship. Now since the Doff packs are 275 Zen ($2.75 USD) and the odds have been adjusted to account for this, it takes 90.9 Doff packs to get 1 Bug ship.
Today I received the Bug ship on Doff pack 90. (I opened 43 packs today and had Excel records from previous attempts during previous promotions amounting to another 47.)
90 Doff packs at $2.75 USD is $247.50.
I think this information is useful for people to know because it helps them make a more informed decision prior to engaging in a lottery mechanic.
I haven't opened any lock boxes on STO, but I have on Neverwinter. Results on that game confirm the general 1:250 premise.
284 Keys
1 Thayan Book of the Dead
0 Giant Beetle
0 Legendary Beetle
109 Keys
0 Apparatus of K
0 Rust Monster
920 Keys
0 Owlbear
4 Puesdodragon
380 Keys
1 Nightmare
TOTAL KEYS: 1,693 ($2,116.25 USD)
TOTAL PRIZES: 6
Odds: 1/282.
Post edited by kobayashikumiho on
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Comments
I wish I had your disposable cash
Thanks for the info
If the odds of winning are 1.1% and each chance costs $2.75, then to have a 99% chance of winning a Bug Ship you need to open 412 packs to a cost of $1,133.
This is: (1 - (100% - 1.11...%)^412) = 99%
Remember, each pack opening is an new throw of the dice.
EDIT: If you just want a 90% chance of getting a Bug Ship rather than a 99% chance, then you need to open 206 packs.
The fact that the 90th box contained a ship doesn't mean the chances are 1/90, any more than getting a ship in your first box would mean the odds are 1/1.
http://1drv.ms/1kQ91W6
There's only 650 opened so aside from the mass of Elachi boxes I opened you might want to be cautious about reading the results, but it should give you a general feel for the rarity of everything that's not a Grand Prize ship.
Okay, first off, the OP's basic math is off using his own parameters. That' s fine we can see that the entire post is a mess.
Moving on to the flawed bit.
Looking at your premise that the chance is actually 1.1%, where that is from is no matter lets agree that it is solid.
Wouldn't opening 412 packs at that rate give you only a 4.8% chance of getting A bug ship?
And a 94 point blah blah blah % chance of getting MORE than one bug ship?
Just asking.
Right - so, the first thing you do is reverse the concept a bit. What are the odds of *not* winning? What are the odds of not winning 2, 3, x... times in a row?
So 1.1% gives us 98.9% chance of not winning. If you opened two packs that's 98.9%^2 which is 97.8%. What we need to do is work out what power you need to raise the original odds of not winning by in order to get 1% as the result.
98.9%^412 is 1% (well, very slightly higher), which is to say opening 412 packs gives us a 1% chance of not winning the grand prize, which reversed is a 99% chance of winning it.
You can't actually guarantee a win - it's statistically impossible - but you can get the odds of not winning down very low.
You missed his point, which is that opening 412 packs gives a 4.8% chance of getting one and only one JHAS.
But anyway, the whole exercise is kind of silly anyway, in that it relies upon the assumption of a 1.1% rate, which there is little evidence for.
Admittedly continuing down a silly avenue:
((89/90)^412) = 0.01 (to 2dp)
Open no lockboxes = 0% chance I'm going to spend a penny on PWE's money-grab, gambling nonsense.
I've always encouraged a complete boycott of the lockbox idea in any game, because it's tantamount to gambling at best. And of course, I encourage a lockbox boycott in STO.
At worst, it's a cynical, vile and despicable way to wheedle more money out of the pockets of the customers.
See? Easy math. LOL
As someone has pointed out .. .It's a lottery ... so it's impossible, IMPOSSIBLE, to put meaningful odds on getting any one thing from a lock box except some Lobi.
With State lotteries for instance, if you want to use statistics and maths, you have, say a 1 in 25000000 chance of winning = You vs 25000000 other people.
A mathematician or Statistician will tell you you wouldn't "realistically" increase your odds by buying ticket ... Buying a ticket gives you 1 in 25000000 chance to win? Pfft not worth it ...
Yet (almost) every week someone DOES win, but they wouldn't have if they'd listened to the statisticians and not bought a ticket.
In other words, every time you open a box their is 50/50 chance of receiving a "prize" and they are the only "odds' that are accurate!
And this is the thing ... There is no such thing as a "truly" random number in computing ... The RNG can 'simulate' a random number, but it still requires fixed parameters to work with, so you have to ask (and Cryptic will NEVER tell) when those parameters are set?
On one toon I opened 5 Promo Packs and got 0, BUG, 0 BUG, BUG ... Now ... What are the odds of THAT? ...
However on another toon I was just starting I bought 10 Packs, mainly to start her DoFF roster off, but also for the chance of a ship ... And she got 0 BUG's out of 10 ...
But I also rarely if ever buy keys with out of pocket money, instead I get them with EC's and dilithium/zen exchanges.
I open at least 1-2 boxes per day, and if statistics are correct should land at least 1 grandprize ship soon, but we will see. :rolleyes:
Praetor of the -RTS- Romulan Tal Shiar fleet!
^This is nonsense.
The fact that it is impossible to predict with certainty whether a PARTICULAR trial at a lottery will result in winning does not mean it is impossible (much less IMPOSSIBLE) to put meaningful odds on the chance of winning.
In this case, there are, in fact, fixed odds coded into some database somewhere, and with sufficient trials, the observed win rate will approach the programmed one as closely as you want.
So it is not just possible, it is actually ridiculously easy (but not cheap) to put meaningful odds on winning something from a lockbox.
Maybe you were kidding, but this is also flawed reasoning, unfortunately.
If statistics are correct, your chances of winning a grandprize ship soon are very poor - just like everyone else's...
You must have missed the sarcastic smiley face. :rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:
Praetor of the -RTS- Romulan Tal Shiar fleet!
Maybe I should try to say what you were trying to say in more correct terms hmm?
I think it should probably have gone more like this: The statistics of getting the grand prize are irrelevant because due to the nature of chance there is nothing you can do to achieve guaranteed success. So long as the outcome adheres to any level of randomness, regardless of number of attempts, you can ALWAYS fail to get the item you desire from the attempt.
On the other hand you will never get the item in question by any other means than by playing the game in question. So if it is your goal to get the item regardless of expense then by all means begin opening boxes until you achieve your goal which will happen at some random occasion.
Or better yet... Sell Lock Box Keys and other things and just buy the stupid ship from someone else. With that method there IS a guaranteed amount of input in order to receive your reward.
The only problem with this ideology, is if people no longer use keys to open lock boxes or never purchase doff packs for the ship, than they too will never be available on the exchange.
But gambling and wasting of money is something they know people will do and cannot control in some cases, so it will remain a viable income source for PWE/Cryptic.
Praetor of the -RTS- Romulan Tal Shiar fleet!
No, no, no ... no!
You fall into the same false trap that many other "number crunchers" fall into ... You seem to think that Cryptic has some Whiteboard somehwere, ticking off how many boxes you've opened, and when you get enough "ticks" you'll get one ... WRONG!!!
The simple fact is, that the RNG is coded to set parameters on (I hope anyway) each and every Lockbox openeing, that means that each and every time you open a box, the ONLY odds or ratio is 50% or 50/50 period!
However if the parameters are set differently, who knows WHAT might happen ... As I said, I've had 3 ships drop from 5 packs consecutively... and I've had 0 drop from 10 consecutively ...
This is an oft repeated fallacy that many seem to believe ... You cannot put meaningful odds or use statistics from "past" events to determine the likely outcome of future events in a random (or close approximation of random) system ... It just doesn't work that way!
You can however change the parameters of the system, which is what Casino's and Lotteries do. (and I hope Cryptic doesn't do)
Instant Scratch prizes for instance are a good example ...
Say 1 in every 10000 tickets has a major prize, this can be set before any tickets get printed, so the odds of anyone specificallyfinding the ticket is 1 in 10000, but the odds of "someone" winning the prize is 100% and every time you scratch one you have precisely a 50% or either winning or losing (unless of course the prize was won yesterday, in which case you now have 0% chance ...
You can change the original parameters by printing more tickets i.e. 20000, 30000, 100000 and the odds of 'anyone' will change, but note that this has absolutely NO effect on your odds of winning.
Typically it would be way worse than a 50/50, considering all the items that could drop from a lockbox.
The only sure thing is usally the lobi, and it comes most often in small amounts. :mad:
Praetor of the -RTS- Romulan Tal Shiar fleet!
I think nothing of the kind.
^This makes no sense whatsoever.
Yes, you can. It works exactly that way.
LOL, classic rich people , classic customer of STO.
Now,...it's common knowledge that Cryptic uses that ship as it's cash cow. Instead of allowing the C-Store to be packed with things we've been begging for (and have stated we will pay real world money for). It's obvious lockbox ships generate more revenue (periodically), than the constant revenue stream the C-Store might provide (if it were properly maintained).