I managed to copy another 6.000 (edit: now 12.000) lockboxes to tribble before the first holodeck crash (and the character copy subsequently failing after that) yesterday.
A couple things before I share the results:
Thank you to the three people who mailed a master key tip to @dukedom after the last thread.
A special thank you to the guy who tipped me a purple raptor pet.
If the character copy just fails because of the crash(s) I will add some more boxes to the statistics later.
If not, and this is the scheduled character copy outage: 'CALLED IT!!!'
Results:
64539 Lobi - 5,37825 avg
272x new consoles - 2.27%
162x 10k cxp pool - 1.35 %
148x 100 fm pool - 1.23%
525x 100 rep marks pool - 4.38% bind on pickup
524x 2k cxp pool - 4.37%
126x 25k fc pool - 1.05%
540x 5k fc pool - 4.50%
155x 500 rep marks pool - 1.29% bind on pickup
1311x Gamma Cadre - 10.93%
3249x Gamma Mini Pack - 27.08%
554x prefered customer claim - 4.62% - bind on pickup
Thank You for the loot table - I took the liberty of translating it for the official German STO forum and mentioned You as the original creator in combination with a link to this thread.
Assuming that the drop rate of "new" ships (not mirror counterparts) is constant across boxes, we now have a sufficient sample to estimate that tiny probability. 90 ships were obtained out of 24000 lockboxes.
1) If the drop rate were 0.5% as is commonly assumed, the probability of getting less than 98 ships out of 24000 draws is less than 2%. We can safely assert that the drop rate is inferior to 0.5% because 90 were drawn.
2) If the drop rate were 0.45%, the probability of getting 90 ships or less is 4.3% . I guess we have found the upper bound of our confidence interval on the drop rate.
3) The estimated drop rate is 0.375% ( = 90 / 24000 ). Just for information, any number of ships between 75 and 105 would be compatible with such a drop rate. I think that this amount of uncertainty is reasonable, i.e. the sample is now sufficiently big with 24000 draws. The distance between the boundaries is 30, about one third of the realized outcome.
4) If the drop rate were 0.315%, the probability of getting 90 ships or more (not at typo, I mean "or more) is 4.6%. So we have found the lower bound of our confidence interval.
5) How big is the confidence interval ? By saying that the drop rate is between 0.315% and 0.45%, I have less than 9% (=4.3%+4.6%) chance of making a mistake, under the assumption (I repeat) that the drop rate of a new ship is constant across lockboxes.
One fast question,,. what is the point of this table?
I guess this question was answered if objective information is to be valued at all. Some people don't like gambling against such small odds, some people like gambling with a good knowledge of the odds. For all the others, indeed, the table won't have any impact.
I've opened a few LB's and never gotten anything better than few Voth Ap Weapons, so I gave up ('coz apparently I have **** luck)
However ...
I recently rolled a new Tac Fed toon and at lvl 4 he got his first Voth Lockbox ... So just for the hell of it I bought 1 key and opened it ... He scored a Voth Bastion FDC!!!
Needless to say, it went straight up on the exchange, and now my new toon has 75 million EC's to see him through his career ...
That's why Cryptic LOVE their Lockboxes ... It's pretty much as good as having their very own licence to print money.
5) How big is the confidence interval ? By saying that the drop rate is between 0.315% and 0.45%, I have less than 9% (=4.3%+4.6%) chance of making a mistake, under the assumption (I repeat) that the drop rate of a new ship is constant across lockboxes.
Programmers like to use powers of two, since computers use binary math primarily. A drop rate of 1/256 (0.39%) would fall smack in the middle of that range.
Programmers like to use powers of two, since computers use binary math primarily. A drop rate of 1/256 (0.39%) would fall smack in the middle of that range.
I am not sure it is viable to extrapolate from my earlier samples. They might no longer be valid. Yes, in theory they 'should' be, but much code has flown down the sto river and we all know 'weird stuff' happens all the time.
Are these boxes keyed to your level/rank in the game please? I'm level 9 and found one of these boxes is it worth me opening the box hoping to get some amazing ship or powerful weapon or will my reward be keyed specifically to a level 9 player?
Aka a bunch of hypo sprays like Q gives me in his lockboxes after Party Patrol.
Are these boxes keyed to your level/rank in the game please? I'm level 9 and found one of these boxes is it worth me opening the box hoping to get some amazing ship or powerful weapon or will my reward be keyed specifically to a level 9 player?
You'll be able to get the same rewards out of a lockbox at level 9, that you'll get at level 50.
If you get a requisition pack out of a lockbox that contains a ship, you won't be able to open it until you reach the appropriate level.
If you recieve a pack which contains a weapon, you can either choose to open it at level 9, which will reward you with a purple Mk.I or Mk.II weapon or you can keep the pack in your inventory and open it once you reach 50 and get a Mk.XI or XII version out of it.
You'll be able to get the same rewards out of a lockbox at level 9, that you'll get at level 50.
If you get a requisition pack out of a lockbox that contains a ship, you won't be able to open it until you reach the appropriate level.
If you recieve a pack which contains a weapon, you can either choose to open it at level 9, which will reward you with a purple Mk.I or Mk.II weapon or you can keep the pack in your inventory and open it once you reach 50 and get a Mk.XI or XII version out of it.
Dukedom, would you consider creating some numbers for old lock boxes?
Also, I count 12011 results in your post now.
Transcription error from my spreadsheet to the post on both ground traits, corrected it.
And as a matter of fact I did some small random samples with old boxes back when the odds 'changed' for the Elachi box before I escalated it to QA but nowhere large enough to be comfortable sharing it with the public.
Hmm my box contained a Gamma Quadrant duty officer mini pack however I've only just reached level ten so I can't access the duty officer part of the game yet so I dare not open the pack in case the officers vanish because they have nowhere to go
I am not sure it is viable to extrapolate from my earlier samples. They might no longer be valid. Yes, in theory they 'should' be, but much code has flown down the sto river and we all know 'weird stuff' happens all the time.
I'm actually quite sure that the drop rate was not constant across all boxes, but at least we have an average drop rate over a sufficiently large sample to get boundaries... To be clear, the hypothesis that the drop rates of ships are the same for the Elachi lockbox and all the others can be rejected at a very high confidence level.
I'm actually quite sure that the drop rate was not constant across all boxes, but at least we have an average drop rate over a sufficiently large sample to get boundaries... To be clear, the hypothesis that the drop rates of ships are the same for the Elachi lockbox and all the others can be rejected at a very high confidence level.
I know "conspiracy theory" posts are frowned upon, but ... You can be sure that Cryptic (or more likely PWE) very closely monitor the popularity of items dropped from Lockboxes, to see if they need to increase or decrease the drop rate to ensure that people are buying keys ...
I'm actually quite sure that the drop rate was not constant across all boxes, but at least we have an average drop rate over a sufficiently large sample to get boundaries... To be clear, the hypothesis that the drop rates of ships are the same for the Elachi lockbox and all the others can be rejected at a very high confidence level.
That's really VERY interesting really, as one wonders what thought processes might go into determining rates.
Perhaps rates get "tweaked" due to a number of unspecified factors ? Maybe even mid event? (Just wondering out loud)
It really shouldn't surprise I guess, if the rates in reality, got "tweaked", but that fact would fly against the common conception that the odds remained static.
This would very much explain why drop rates are never discussed:
Because they are subject to change ?
There's a conspiracy theory for ya. (and I do love my conspiracies !)
Of course, all of the above is merely conjecture.
Regardless, I very much appreciate your efforts to enlighten us about this subject.
,snip.
Perhaps rates get "tweaked" due to a number of unspecified factors ? Maybe even mid event? (Just wondering out loud)
This would very much explain why drop rates are never discussed:
Because they are subject to change ?
There's a conspiracy theory for ya. (and I do love my conspiracies !)
Imagine if you will ... Cryptic announced say, that they were putting the "Marion" DoFF into a Lockbox" Or the "Leech" or any one of the other "must have" items??? (Romulan Plasma Ship Weapons anyone?)
The number of keys bought with Z and from the exchange would skyrocket ... But that may (would?) have an adverse effect on the game economy ... Same with certain ships that are "must have" or other items from Lockboxes ... One has to wonder ...
But as you rightly point out, we'll never know, and this is all just conjecture and idle daydreaming ... Then again, if the percentages are fixed and if Cryptic (or PWE) were not closely watching and perhaps "tweaking" the numbers to keep the $$$ flowing, then why keep it a secret?
That's why Cryptic LOVE their Lockboxes ... It's pretty much as good as having their very own licence to print money.
Where I come from that's called Counterfeiting and you do some very hard time for it.
But I'm glad tables like these are being tabulated because it shows the fraud that is the lockboxes for what they really are.
I have said it before and I will say it again, this is what a F2P world looks like, but to be honest even in the F2P world, Cryptic has taken the monetization and the sheer AMOUNTS of money they make on each individual transaction to a whole new level.
You have individual ships priced at $25, 3 packs for $50, lockboxes who's drops range from as little as $50 upwards of $200 to get a ship.
The truth is this game has gotten more expensive since it's went F2P not less expensive. with the subscription model they would make 14.99 per person per month. With this system, they make easily 4 times that.
You would think that with such a HUGE influx of cash they would be able to put more content out then what they were doing back during P2P, and also putting it out with little to no bugs as they should be.
Yet the content comes out, buggy as hell, it takes 3 to 5 patches to fix it, assuming they fix it at all.
Their "fixes" break things that were working just fine (of course, I'm going on the assumption they don't break things on purpose for job security.) The fact that you have bugs that continue to exist and just flat don't get fixed.
However I guarantee you if there was a bug in dilithium in favor of the players or something with the lock boxes that gave the players some kind of advantage, oh they would fix that the next day.
yet entire features like Crafting continue to be relegated to oblivion, and that the nest items and ships are all the lockbox and other P2W devices that exist.
Just taking a look outside at ESD should tell you all you really need to know. I don't see many actual FEDERATION starships flying around, they are all anything but at this point. I see Hirogen, Jem'hadar, Voth, etc. And the Federation vessels i DO see are all C-Store or Fleet variants anyway.
No body, and I mean NO BODY is flying vanilla ships anymore. There hasn't been a ship added to the game for the sake of adding it to the game in well forever, I think the VA ships were the last and only ships, though I can't be sure it's been a long time.
There has just been so much of this game's true potential that has been and is currently being squandered all for the pursuit of the all mighty dollar. and because it's F2P, Cryptic's focus is chasing after money instead of just making a good game. And of course that is because that the edict handed out to them by their Chinese overlords.
Where I come from that's called Counterfeiting and you do some very hard time for it.
But I'm glad tables like these are being tabulated because it shows the fraud that is the lockboxes for what they really are.
I have said it before and I will say it again, this is what a F2P world looks like, but to be honest even in the F2P world, Cryptic has taken the monetization and the sheer AMOUNTS of money they make on each individual transaction to a whole new level.
You have individual ships priced at $25, 3 packs for $50, lockboxes who's drops range from as little as $50 upwards of $200 to get a ship.
The truth is this game has gotten more expensive since it's went F2P not less expensive. with the subscription model they would make 14.99 per person per month. With this system, they make easily 4 times that.
You would think that with such a HUGE influx of cash they would be able to put more content out then what they were doing back during P2P, and also putting it out with little to no bugs as they should be.
Yet the content comes out, buggy as hell, it takes 3 to 5 patches to fix it, assuming they fix it at all.
Their "fixes" break things that were working just fine (of course, I'm going on the assumption they don't break things on purpose for job security.) The fact that you have bugs that continue to exist and just flat don't get fixed.
However I guarantee you if there was a bug in dilithium in favor of the players or something with the lock boxes that gave the players some kind of advantage, oh they would fix that the next day.
yet entire features like Crafting continue to be relegated to oblivion, and that the nest items and ships are all the lockbox and other P2W devices that exist.
Just taking a look outside at ESD should tell you all you really need to know. I don't see many actual FEDERATION starships flying around, they are all anything but at this point. I see Hirogen, Jem'hadar, Voth, etc. And the Federation vessels i DO see are all C-Store or Fleet variants anyway.
No body, and I mean NO BODY is flying vanilla ships anymore. There hasn't been a ship added to the game for the sake of adding it to the game in well forever, I think the VA ships were the last and only ships, though I can't be sure it's been a long time.
There has just been so much of this game's true potential that has been and is currently being squandered all for the pursuit of the all mighty dollar. and because it's F2P, Cryptic's focus is chasing after money instead of just making a good game. And of course that is because that the edict handed out to them by their Chinese overlords.
Such a shame. truly.
-AE
If I could put this entire thing into my signature, I would.
Comments
Taskforce 47 Falkenwacht (Federation) / Greifenreiter (KDF)
(at) deianirrah
Free Gear and where to get it
1) If the drop rate were 0.5% as is commonly assumed, the probability of getting less than 98 ships out of 24000 draws is less than 2%. We can safely assert that the drop rate is inferior to 0.5% because 90 were drawn.
2) If the drop rate were 0.45%, the probability of getting 90 ships or less is 4.3% . I guess we have found the upper bound of our confidence interval on the drop rate.
3) The estimated drop rate is 0.375% ( = 90 / 24000 ). Just for information, any number of ships between 75 and 105 would be compatible with such a drop rate. I think that this amount of uncertainty is reasonable, i.e. the sample is now sufficiently big with 24000 draws. The distance between the boundaries is 30, about one third of the realized outcome.
4) If the drop rate were 0.315%, the probability of getting 90 ships or more (not at typo, I mean "or more) is 4.6%. So we have found the lower bound of our confidence interval.
5) How big is the confidence interval ? By saying that the drop rate is between 0.315% and 0.45%, I have less than 9% (=4.3%+4.6%) chance of making a mistake, under the assumption (I repeat) that the drop rate of a new ship is constant across lockboxes.
I guess this question was answered if objective information is to be valued at all. Some people don't like gambling against such small odds, some people like gambling with a good knowledge of the odds. For all the others, indeed, the table won't have any impact.
I've opened a few LB's and never gotten anything better than few Voth Ap Weapons, so I gave up ('coz apparently I have **** luck)
However ...
I recently rolled a new Tac Fed toon and at lvl 4 he got his first Voth Lockbox ... So just for the hell of it I bought 1 key and opened it ... He scored a Voth Bastion FDC!!!
Needless to say, it went straight up on the exchange, and now my new toon has 75 million EC's to see him through his career ...
That's why Cryptic LOVE their Lockboxes ... It's pretty much as good as having their very own licence to print money.
Programmers like to use powers of two, since computers use binary math primarily. A drop rate of 1/256 (0.39%) would fall smack in the middle of that range.
Anyway, great work again
Great insight!
I am not sure it is viable to extrapolate from my earlier samples. They might no longer be valid. Yes, in theory they 'should' be, but much code has flown down the sto river and we all know 'weird stuff' happens all the time.
Also, I count 12011 results in your post now.
Aka a bunch of hypo sprays like Q gives me in his lockboxes after Party Patrol.
You'll be able to get the same rewards out of a lockbox at level 9, that you'll get at level 50.
If you get a requisition pack out of a lockbox that contains a ship, you won't be able to open it until you reach the appropriate level.
If you recieve a pack which contains a weapon, you can either choose to open it at level 9, which will reward you with a purple Mk.I or Mk.II weapon or you can keep the pack in your inventory and open it once you reach 50 and get a Mk.XI or XII version out of it.
Got it, thanks fraghul2000
Transcription error from my spreadsheet to the post on both ground traits, corrected it.
And as a matter of fact I did some small random samples with old boxes back when the odds 'changed' for the Elachi box before I escalated it to QA but nowhere large enough to be comfortable sharing it with the public.
I'm actually quite sure that the drop rate was not constant across all boxes, but at least we have an average drop rate over a sufficiently large sample to get boundaries... To be clear, the hypothesis that the drop rates of ships are the same for the Elachi lockbox and all the others can be rejected at a very high confidence level.
I know "conspiracy theory" posts are frowned upon, but ... You can be sure that Cryptic (or more likely PWE) very closely monitor the popularity of items dropped from Lockboxes, to see if they need to increase or decrease the drop rate to ensure that people are buying keys ...
That's really VERY interesting really, as one wonders what thought processes might go into determining rates.
Perhaps rates get "tweaked" due to a number of unspecified factors ? Maybe even mid event? (Just wondering out loud)
It really shouldn't surprise I guess, if the rates in reality, got "tweaked", but that fact would fly against the common conception that the odds remained static.
This would very much explain why drop rates are never discussed:
Because they are subject to change ?
There's a conspiracy theory for ya.
Of course, all of the above is merely conjecture.
Regardless, I very much appreciate your efforts to enlighten us about this subject.
Imagine if you will ... Cryptic announced say, that they were putting the "Marion" DoFF into a Lockbox" Or the "Leech" or any one of the other "must have" items??? (Romulan Plasma Ship Weapons anyone?)
The number of keys bought with Z and from the exchange would skyrocket ... But that may (would?) have an adverse effect on the game economy ... Same with certain ships that are "must have" or other items from Lockboxes ... One has to wonder ...
But as you rightly point out, we'll never know, and this is all just conjecture and idle daydreaming ... Then again, if the percentages are fixed and if Cryptic (or PWE) were not closely watching and perhaps "tweaking" the numbers to keep the $$$ flowing, then why keep it a secret?
Where I come from that's called Counterfeiting and you do some very hard time for it.
But I'm glad tables like these are being tabulated because it shows the fraud that is the lockboxes for what they really are.
I have said it before and I will say it again, this is what a F2P world looks like, but to be honest even in the F2P world, Cryptic has taken the monetization and the sheer AMOUNTS of money they make on each individual transaction to a whole new level.
You have individual ships priced at $25, 3 packs for $50, lockboxes who's drops range from as little as $50 upwards of $200 to get a ship.
The truth is this game has gotten more expensive since it's went F2P not less expensive. with the subscription model they would make 14.99 per person per month. With this system, they make easily 4 times that.
You would think that with such a HUGE influx of cash they would be able to put more content out then what they were doing back during P2P, and also putting it out with little to no bugs as they should be.
Yet the content comes out, buggy as hell, it takes 3 to 5 patches to fix it, assuming they fix it at all.
Their "fixes" break things that were working just fine (of course, I'm going on the assumption they don't break things on purpose for job security.) The fact that you have bugs that continue to exist and just flat don't get fixed.
However I guarantee you if there was a bug in dilithium in favor of the players or something with the lock boxes that gave the players some kind of advantage, oh they would fix that the next day.
yet entire features like Crafting continue to be relegated to oblivion, and that the nest items and ships are all the lockbox and other P2W devices that exist.
Just taking a look outside at ESD should tell you all you really need to know. I don't see many actual FEDERATION starships flying around, they are all anything but at this point. I see Hirogen, Jem'hadar, Voth, etc. And the Federation vessels i DO see are all C-Store or Fleet variants anyway.
No body, and I mean NO BODY is flying vanilla ships anymore. There hasn't been a ship added to the game for the sake of adding it to the game in well forever, I think the VA ships were the last and only ships, though I can't be sure it's been a long time.
There has just been so much of this game's true potential that has been and is currently being squandered all for the pursuit of the all mighty dollar. and because it's F2P, Cryptic's focus is chasing after money instead of just making a good game. And of course that is because that the edict handed out to them by their Chinese overlords.
Such a shame. truly.
-AE
If I could put this entire thing into my signature, I would.
Opened 80 hirogen lock boxes.
No ship, but 4 dilithium mining claims.
Interesting, form last lock box i got 20 lobi.
My current numbers are (pref / vip):
hirogen: 4.62% / 1.09%
voth: 3.73% / 1.78%
elachi: 3.86% / 1.86%
tal shiar: 2.50% / 1.14%
I am not quite doen with the tal shiar boxes yet though, before I move on to the next box in line (as long as the charcopy stays alive).
So, that's an average of 227 lockboxes you have to open, boys and girls, before you get the ship you want. Yikes.
Thx for compiling this info.
554x prefered customer claim - 4.62% - bind on pickup
131x vip customer claim - 1.09% - bind on pickup
Edit: Never mind, figured it out. They grant dilithium mining claims.
Good work. I definitely appreciate such work.
Mustrum "Lockbox noob" Ridcully