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F2P doing well for Cryptic? Where's the announcment?

SystemSystem Member, NoReporting Posts: 178,019 Arc User
edited May 2012 in Ten Forward
So usually a few months if not earlier after a game goes F2P, the company shouts to the rafters, talking about how revenue is up 4000% and people playing are up by 10000s. How come Cryptic hasn't said how good STO has done since F2P?

With some of the stuff D Stahl has been saying about F/E being reviewed (read cancelled), KDF being mothballed (all but), Ships going into the C-store at a expansion prices and confirmation that only 10% of the player base buy anything, is F2P a bit of a flop for STO?

If it is, why?

What makes the other F2P games a success? Even EQ1 has said to have been a success since it went F2P and that gem is over 10 years old.

Is it because people don't like Cryptic products and they have been found out?

Is it because of lock boxes?

Is it because of lack of end game.

Is it the IP?

Or is it just that sandbox games in general are a niche within a niche when it comes to MMos, whereas your theme park ones, tend to get the large majority of people?

To those who think that STO is a success, care to say what makes you think that? Just saying because it's still here doesn't necessarily equate into it being a success.

Anyone up for a spar?:)
Post edited by Unknown User on

Comments

  • Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    Solomace wrote: »
    With some of the stuff D Stahl has been saying about F/E being reviewed (read cancelled), KDF being mothballed (all but), Ships going into the C-store at a expansion prices and confirmation that only 10% of the player base buy anything, is F2P a bit of a flop for STO?

    You’ve made some pretty brazen statements here. Care to share your sources?

    Nothing you’ve mentioned here has anything to do with Cryptic’s decision to go F2P or their profitability therein. They already had a fair amount to say about FTP and how successful it is, so I’m not sure what you want them to do. If you are talking about a public statement, now is probably not the best time for them given the recent revelation of their huge data breach.
  • Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    Cryptic has never been a fan of publishing their numbers...

    But... If you ask me... No... I don't think STO is doing as well as cryptic hoped...

    Sure, when FE's are going on there is a ton of people online, but take a look around inside the game, or here on the forums... It's the same names... the same faces... I am pretty sure I know all the names I see in sector space when I pass them...

    The game is not exactly packed with end game content, and what content there is... Is either gated or so badly designed that it becomes a nasty grind after a very short time.
    And that is why people are only here for the FE's... and if people are only here for FE's... thats the only time they get money... Wich is bad for a F2P game.

    Now I am confident someone from cryptic will be along shortly and try to make a fool of me with some unfounded statement that I am wrong, but wont provide evidence to the oppersite.
  • Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    That's all okay, games with fewer players tend to have a better male/female ratio. ;)
  • Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    I stopped caring about "how well cryptic was doing" and started asking myself "how much fun am I having" for what I put into the game be it time or dollars. You see I think if number two is right, number one will take care of itself. The evidence says there are issues some where. Evidence to me is how much content they are putting out and of what type, as well as how much support is rolling in. After all, I can only comment on what I see. Let's be frank...

    After two years, the B'tran cluster? It's still has the same bugged exploration missions and content is turning to lock boxes, "foundry mission advertising" and re-rewards for playing older content, with C-Store ships each month that seem underwhelming for the dollars.

    I mean should a lock box ship have better interior features be it Dabo and exchange access than a $20 Fed flag ship of the fleet?

    IPersonally, I can't justify what I spend to have fun with STO any longer compared to what I get from an actual subscription based game. And I fear there is something eating at the community... So close to being a great game. But I can't tolerate where its going.
  • Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    Solomace wrote: »
    Originally Posted by Solomace
    With some of the stuff D Stahl has been saying about F/E being reviewed (read cancelled), KDF being mothballed (all but), Ships going into the C-store at a expansion prices and confirmation that only 10% of the player base buy anything, is F2P a bit of a flop for STO?

    It could very well be not be doing as well as they hoped, or it could be doing as well or better then they hoped; but all MMOs keep that info close to the vest. They have stated in posts and Blogs that at the release of the last FE the cioncurrent user numbers were the highest they've ever been, etc; and during the Christmas event, it was stated teh 'grab bags' bought in more revenue then any other C-Store item to date (and I too, hate the Lockbox paradigm; have never bought a key, and never will, and destry any Lockbox that ends up in my Inventory) but obviously the bulk of the playing playerbase doesn't - as evidenced by the facty they keep doing them - and they wouldn't if players weren't buying keys. An Lockboxes seem a staple of Wstern F2P games in general of late as DCUO, LoTRO and others have lockbox type things as well.

    As to:
    confirmation that only 10% of the player base buy anything

    That seems to be the norm for F2P games in general (based on what I've read around the net of F2P games) - that 10% are really into using the RMT store; and the rest really do just play for free or make the very occassional RMT item buy.

    It's supposedly more profitable then the $15 sub model in the long run because said 10% usually spend way more than $15 a month and as there's no 'box cost' - that 10% is probably close to what the paying subcriber base was; but yeah, until F2P games make their financials public; we won't know how much less or more profitable the method is in the long run in the western market,

    That said, the trend seems to be to take more MMOs F2P moving forward (from a variety of MMO developers); so the accounting folks must see something that leads them to think the model is more profitable for their MMOs.

    But, in the end, I think the only way we'll lnow if F2P was considered a failure with STO is if PWE decides to close down the game; or CBS decides to not renew th Star Trek MMO IP agreement with Cryptic.

    in the end, I guss it all boils down to if you're still getting any enjoyment out of the game; and as long as that's th case, why worry about things you as a player have no control over? When it gets to the point you no longer enjoy the game; or don't like the new content being developed, or te direction the Dev team is taking the game - you can move on to another game you like; and check back on STO periodically (or not.)

    But, at least for the new crop of F2P players, they never spent $30 - $60 on a client box; and aren't really out all that much as nothing in the C-Store is required to play and advance to max level in STO. If they ever used teh C-Store, that was their personal choice.
  • Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    who knows and who cares. as long as the game is still open and there is new stuff coming i could not care less what the exact numbers are.
  • Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    I can get the numbers for you later on today (provided my source is up). If you wait until the quarterly calls, they give a good insight to the numbers against expectations.

    One thing I do remember from the last time I saw them was that once STO went F2P, they had quite a large increase in paying subs...
  • Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    Isror wrote: »
    I can get the numbers for you later on today (provided my source is up). If you wait until the quarterly calls, they give a good insight to the numbers against expectations.

    One thing I do remember from the last time I saw them was that once STO went F2P, they had quite a large increase in paying subs...

    How can you get numbers, that the company holding, does not disclose to the public?
  • Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    anazonda wrote: »
    How can you get numbers, that the company holding, does not disclose to the public?

    Various resources, including colleagues and friends that work for multiple gaming companies (via contract as testers, consultants ect).They have them.


    And YES, during the quarterly financial calls, they release subscription ranges. You can find them in .mp3 format if you don't mind sitting through other nonsense.

    To clarify further, these individuals don't work for a company, more as they are the company; long time gaming industry individuals who have been involved in more pre-alpha work than most of us gaming in beta's combine.
  • Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    We only can compare numbers at last of 2012... even diferent quartes... we'll see.

    With the number of galor/jem'hadar/ferengi ships we can say that they sell lots of keys. With the VA ships (even both flagships) and the new carrier, we can think that they are doing lots of money.

    Criptic say that they have new and more workers that is always a good thing.

    I only have a "question": will survive sto to his own seventh season.... I can't forget that always the most time-longer Star Trek series have a "final" seventh season.... I have fear about that!

    I hope that STO live longer and prosper... that will be good for all us, Cryptic, players and owners.


    Thanks to everybody or fun, sorry for my bad english.
  • Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    I haven't really been following up with them on STO, I've been having too much fun playing it. I HAVE been hot on the tail of The Old Republic...all I can say with that title is...lol

    Bioware initially said they were looking at about 10-15 million subscriber months to just BREAK EVEN with the production cost of the game...As of 2 weeks after the 1.2 patch was released, they are now estimating over 84 million subscriber months JUST to break even on what it cost to develop the game.

    The average PEAK users online for ToR is around 190,000k to 200,000k....Coming off of the sales of millions of copies, of which only 1.7 were "activated" thats really sad, and rightfully so, the game is atrocious.
  • Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    Isror wrote: »
    I haven't really been following up with them on STO, I've been having too much fun playing it. I HAVE been hot on the tail of The Old Republic...all I can say with that title is...lol

    Bioware initially said they were looking at about 10-15 million subscriber months to just BREAK EVEN with the production cost of the game...As of 2 weeks after the 1.2 patch was released, they are now estimating over 84 million subscriber months JUST to break even on what it cost to develop the game.

    The average PEAK users online for ToR is around 190,000k to 200,000k....Coming off of the sales of millions of copies, of which only 1.7 were "activated" thats really sad, and rightfully so, the game is atrocious.

    BioWare actually said about a year prior to release they needed 1 million to break even, and the game became profitable and a 'good investment at anything north of 1.5 mission subs (and also stated plans to have tch in place that would keep pace with adding 2 million subbers per month - so it's a safe bet they were indeed thinking "WoW Killer" or major WoW competitor. Then in February of this year, somehow the number was revised to 500K to break even and anything north of one mission was a 'good investment' - IE - the damage control started once they saw that SWToR did look like the "WoW Killer" they had hoped for.

    The funny thing is in February SWToR Devs stated they had 1.7 million subs; and in March thiought they'd break 2 million soon; yet today we have their quarterly report - and as of March 31, 2012 SWToR has 1.3 million subs (still a very respecable number and over their high original 'break even point'; and defifinitely into the 'profitable' range of the later adjusted lower 'break ven' point.)

    I do have to ask though - why did they try to claim they were moving up towards 2 million in early March when the March 31, 2012 show a decline of 400K? Makes you wonder if EA/BioWare is as 'up front' as some folks like to claim.

    If they cam turn things around andmake the game grow in subs massively - good for them, but at this point, I think it's just more evidence that WoWs gargantuan success was a fluke of circumstances that are unlikely to ever be repeated in the Western MMO market - and if you compare ANY western MMO to WoW in terms of sub numbers and revenue and somehow think WoW is the stick by which all MMO success is mesured, EVERY Western MMO is a DISMAL FAILURE financially when compared to WoW on those terms.

    In the end, long term MMO profitability hinges on:

    - Being able to successfully amortize, pay off/recoup your base development costs over the first 3 - 5 years.

    - Having enough cash flow and liquidity to maintain day to day operations, as well as continue development of said MMO (IE develop new content and systems)

    - Keeping the investors and upper management happy with regard to performence and player retention in a sub-based model/ability to add RMT items and game services that players want to pay for in a F2P model.

    If your MMO survives long enough to pay off it's initial development cost and also pay fopr any licensing fees; the profitability goes up for th Developer too; but again, that takes years.

    If an MMO can't do the above, it usually gets shut down.

    Do I think SWToR is in danger of being shut down? No - as long as it keeps 1 million or so subs, EA will keep it going and expand it.

    Do I think EA/BioWare/Lucas Arts are really happy with the success SWToR has seen to date? No. Fro all the comments they made leading up to launch, they EXPECTED to really and openly complete with WoW and were at least hoping to see 5 - 6 million; if not equal WoW in subscription numbers within SWToR's first year.

    Could EA/BioWare/LA pull opff a miricle and get that before the end of the year? hey, anything is possible; but in all probability, I don't think that'll happen.

    As for STO: In a F2P model, overall concurrent players don't matter as much. What matters somewhat is those still willing to pay a montkly fee (and I think that number is small); and those who buy CP with real cash on a regular basis. <--- This is the player that PWE/Cryptic wants/needs to court in a F2P model, as generaly, once this type is hooked, they spend a lot more than $15 a month on the game - and may even take long breaks, but when they come back, usually spend again to get the new stuff that went into the C-Store since their last log into the game. this person may not be you or I, but they do exist, and they are what mkes F2P more lucrative then a sub-based model if you can keep them returning.
  • Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    You’ve made some pretty brazen statements here. Care to share your sources?

    Nothing you’ve mentioned here has anything to do with Cryptic’s decision to go F2P or their profitability therein. They already had a fair amount to say about FTP and how successful it is, so I’m not sure what you want them to do. If you are talking about a public statement, now is probably not the best time for them given the recent revelation of their huge data breach.

    My sources are from Dan himself on various threads. He may not have said that they are not going to do any more F/E or that they are stopping doing the KDF faction, however if you read what he says, it's pretty much that they are stopping both simply because they have to look at getting more content out that is cheaper.

    As to ship prices, well just look at the C-Store.
    who knows and who cares. as long as the game is still open and there is new stuff coming i could not care less what the exact numbers are.

    So what if you don't care. Some do. Less people playing = less profit = less content = closed down game.

    Just because it's not closed down now, doesn't mean it's not failing and "could" be closing down.
    anazonda wrote: »
    Cryptic has never been a fan of publishing their numbers...

    But... If you ask me... No... I don't think STO is doing as well as cryptic hoped...

    They do it when they want the PR spin. http://massively.joystiq.com/2011/02/17/champions-online-gains-profits-and-players-as-a-free-to-play/

    This is why I am asking why they haven't mentioned anything about STO and it's months after F2P was announced. But I do agree with you that it's not doing as good as they hoped, hence all the "reviewing", time gated content, re-runs, a new currency and Lock Boxes.

    It must be even worse than I thought, after one of Cryptics biggest fans has actually started to question whats going on -
    http://massively.joystiq.com/2012/05/07/captains-log-old-reruns-a-new-currency-and-time-gates-frustr/
  • Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    They've doubled their team from what it was when it was Subscriber base.

    They are doing well.
  • Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    Thomas45 wrote: »
    They've doubled their team from what it was when it was Subscriber base.

    They are doing well.

    The last company I worked for expanded from 5 employees to 15 in a year... Today they no longer exist because they could not draw in customers...

    Edit:

    And it was not because our company did bad products... We were working for some high profile companies and government institutions (schools, safety ministry), who stayed with us...
  • Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    Thomas45 wrote: »
    They've doubled their team from what it was when it was Subscriber base.

    They are doing well.

    And? What have they shown for it so far?

    Show me where they are doing well, because I don't have to show you how they are not. We don't even know if they managed to get cups back in the kitchen, or if they managed to replace the broken computer with a Zx81.

    Doubled their team and still cannot produce much? More likely these people are working on NW or the other unammed game that we all know is called "Scratch card".
  • Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    Solomace wrote: »
    And? What have they shown for it so far?

    Show me where they are doing well, because I don't have to show you how they are not. We don't even know if they managed to get cups back in the kitchen, or if they managed to replace the broken computer with a Zx81.

    Doubled their team and still cannot produce much? More likely these people are working on NW or the other unammed game that we all know is called "Scratch card".

    Well all I can to point too right now is what has been released this year...

    Oh and Season 6 coming in just over a month. If you want to have your 4 riders of the Apocalypse party then at least wait until the 'actual' content update you've been waiting for, comes out.
  • Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    anazonda wrote: »
    The last company I worked for expanded from 5 employees to 15 in a year... Today they no longer exist because they could not draw in customers...

    Edit:

    And it was not because our company did bad products... We were working for some high profile companies and government institutions (schools, safety ministry), who stayed with us...

    I've never seen STO with so many players on but truth be told I have no numbers as none have been released. Therefore all I know is what I can see and what I see is an active healthy game. Saying that STO is not drawing players in is completely unbased for the moment.
  • Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    Thomas45 wrote: »
    I've never seen STO with so many players on but truth be told I have no numbers as none have been released. Therefore all I know is what I can see and what I see is an active healthy game. Saying that STO is not drawing players in is completely unbased for the moment.

    I on the other hand see the same faces everywhere, and very few compared to the period where "The 2800" was running...

    Sector space is no where near as crowded as it was during launch, and fewer newb questions are being asked in chat...

    To me, that is not a sign of a healthy game.
  • Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    Thomas45 wrote: »
    Well all I can to point too right now is what has been released this year...

    Oh and Season 6 coming in just over a month. If you want to have your 4 riders of the Apocalypse party then at least wait until the 'actual' content update you've been waiting for, comes out.

    Err, I'm not waiting for Season 6 tbh. Not much in there that's going to entice me back to play.

    Fleet SB? More gated content? Playable Romulan faction and ship in a lock box. Oh wait, scratch that one, I think I might have dreamt it;)

    Nope, Season 6 is nothing to shout about and if they do what they normally do, it will come out piecemeal with the "season 6 stretches right up to season 7 so we didn't say it would be out all at once" same old, same old.

    I have been bitten way too many times to get excited about a season updated. Whats to say this will be different? Past history is on my side to say that it will be buggy, not fully finished and will have to have some C-Store or Lock box angle on it.

    The only fun thing about STO, is the forums. This is the real game tbh. Great and fun PVP :)
  • Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    At the end of the day, I just want new exciting content to play. All these cool ships, costumes, etc and nothing to do with them except the same old content we've had for two years.

    Honestly, this is like a single player game. How often do you find yourself going back to play your single player titles?
  • Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    Sprint01 wrote:
    Honestly, this is like a single player game. How often do you find yourself going back to play your single player titles?

    Every 20 DuOff assignments or so... Why?
  • Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    Solomace wrote: »
    My sources are from Dan himself on various threads. He may not have said that they are not going to do any more F/E or that they are stopping doing the KDF faction, however if you read what he says, it's pretty much that they are stopping both simply because they have to look at getting more content out that is cheaper.

    As to ship prices, well just look at the C-Store.

    Dan never said that, people replying to his posts did. I'd like to know exactly where he said KDF and F/E's are dead. "Evaluating" and "killing" are two different things. One is determining if it is profitable, the other is saying it isn't. Business success is about constantly making yourself leaner and trimming off things that aren't working.

    There has been a C-store ship selling for 2000 CP since the release of Galaxy X on C-store. The price of ships has nothing to do with FTP, it has to do with market value of the item. Looking at the number of Atrox ships I see in game the ship are obviously priced right.
    Solomace wrote: »
    It must be even worse than I thought, after one of Cryptics biggest fans has actually started to question whats going on -
    http://massively.joystiq.com/2012/05/07/captains-log-old-reruns-a-new-currency-and-time-gates-frustr/

    Thanks for the read.
  • Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    I am not completely sure what the point of this thread is, other than to speculate on the demise of MMO's generally.

    The economy is still in rough shape, and with trouble in Europe coupled with the still existing US debt issues, not likely getting much better any time soon.

    Subs didn't work as a revenue stream, so if F2P fails, it is not like there is anything else to fall back on.

    As others have said, though, the gamble of F2P is that there are enough people using the store to sustain the system. That requires there be enough in the store to be worth buying on an ongoing basis. That is my only real concern as to the STO business model. Of course they are re-evaluating FE's. They have to. They are (so far) provided as free content.

    Free content only exists as advertising for paid content. If there isn't enough paid content, or you give too much away for free, your business plan will fail.
  • Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    I must say I agree with most things that were said. I started playing STO in February of this year and I've already gotten over much of what the game has to offer. I'm a life-long fan of trek; I want to play and support this game.

    However, here are my thoughts on recent events and end game content:

    I have no interest in the Vault because of the schedule and the extra grind for rewards that make me go "meh."

    I never bother with clusters, doff missions offer more rewards.

    I keep doing STFs mostly just to meet my all XII gear goal but I'm nearly done with that too.

    Replaying missions that I've only done once is out of the question. What's that Cryptic? You say I can play the same missions over again for another unnecessary currency or more mediocre rewards? Let me get on that space combat, ground combat, space combat; wash, rinse, repeat monotony... No thanks.

    Lobi crystals, who cares! Lock boxes, space 'em! $20+ ships which are marginally better than free counterparts, not worth any working person's money!

    I'm not above buying useless TRIBBLE. I play Magic the Gathering for crying out loud. But Wizards of the Coast has it right, entice people like me who like their game to buy the occasional $3 pack. I can justify a few dollars here and there but if it's $20+ I better be eating steak or at a bar.
  • Archived PostArchived Post Member Posts: 2,264,498 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    Dan never said that, people replying to his posts did. I'd like to know exactly where he said KDF and F/E's are dead. "Evaluating" and "killing" are two different things. One is determining if it is profitable, the other is saying it isn't. Business success is about constantly making yourself leaner and trimming off things that aren't working.

    There has been a C-store ship selling for 2000 CP since the release of Galaxy X on C-store. The price of ships has nothing to do with FTP, it has to do with market value of the item. Looking at the number of Atrox ships I see in game the ship are obviously priced right.



    Thanks for the read.

    /Sigh.

    If you say so. If you cannot read between the lines, then I cannot help you. Even the staunches Cryptic fans are starting to get worried and are questioning Cryptic (see below).

    Glad you enjoyed the read. Others did too form what I am reading in the discussion part of the forum.

    http://forums.startrekonline.com/showthread.php?t=269771
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