Advice on War Avatar Card sets

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Comments

  • freygin
    freygin Posts: 737 Arc User
    edited February 2015
    So lets say I want this particular card named Gorath, I have a chance of 0.1885718% for getting it.

    If 1% means ONE out of every 100
    0.1% means ONE out of every 1000
    0.1885718 means 1.885718 out of every 1000
    0.1885718 means 1 out of every 530.3 ~ 531

    1000/1.885718= 530.3 ~ 531.

    So for a particular A card named anything-I-want, I need to open 531 War Avatar Pack A. (100% chance of getting it, Theoretically).

    Now how do I use that like u did, Sylvae, it's kinda backward from how you calculate it, and I use Asterelle's chance instead of 0.19.

    I mean how did you get this :
    Sylvae - Sanctuary wrote: »
    0/6 candleflame 87.7 tries to get one of the six needed
    1/6 candleflame 105.3 tries to get one of the remaining 5
    2/6 candleflame 131.6 tries to get one of the remaining 4
    3/6 candleflame 175.4 tries to get one of the remaining 3
    4/6 candleflame 263.2 tries to get one of the remaining 2
    5/6 candleflame 526.3 tries to get the final 1

    I thought if 1% equals to 1 out of every 100 and 0.1885718% means 1 out of every 531 , then I'd have to open like 531 timed 6 for AEU set.
  • Jarkhen - Archosaur
    Jarkhen - Archosaur Posts: 990 Arc User
    edited February 2015
    freygin wrote: »
    So lets say I want this particular card named Gorath, I have a chance of 0.1885718% for getting it.

    If 1% means ONE out of every 100
    0.1% means ONE out of every 1000
    0.1885718 means 1.885718 out of every 1000
    0.1885718 means 1 out of every 530.3 ~ 531

    1000/1.885718= 530.3 ~ 531.

    So for a particular A card named anything-I-want, I need to open 531 War Avatar Pack A. (100% chance of getting it, Theoretically).
    Not quite -- 531 packs is the expected number of packs needed to get that card. It could easily be more (or less). Opening 531 packs gives you a 100%-[(100%-0.1885718%)^531] ~= 63.3% chance of getting the card in question.
    freygin wrote: »
    Now how do I use that like u did, Sylvae, it's kinda backward from how you calculate it, and I use Asterelle's chance instead of 0.19.

    I mean how did you get this :



    I thought if 1% equals to 1 out of every 100 and 0.1885718% means 1 out of every 531 , then I'd have to open like 531 timed 6 for AEU set.

    Not quite, because you aren't trying to get the cards in any particular order. If, for example, you had to get Emperor Locen first before you could get the rest of the set, and then you had to get Mistress second, and so on -- then you would be looking at 6x531 = 3186 expected packs.

    However, that's not how it works -- when starting out, you're only looking for any one of the six -- and since each one of those six has a 0.1885718% chance of coming out of any pack you open, you initially have a 6*0.1885718% = 1.1314308% chance of getting any of the needed cards. This is 1.1314308 cards out of every 100, or 1 card in every ~88.38 (slightly higher card count than Sylvae's needed due to more accurate %s being used here).

    After you get the first card of the set (whichever that may be), you have five remaining cards you need to complete the set -- a 5*0.1885718% = 0.942859% chance per pack, for an average of ~106.06 packs.

    You then continue this process until you're down to the last card, which as mentioned is a 0.1885718% chance, for about ~530.30 packs.
    Current: http://mypers.pw/1.8/#133167
    105-103-102

    TW/NW Videos: http://www.youtube.com/user/Axel3200

    Some people get R93 and become another cookiecutter DD, other people get R93 and get called out as serious threats. At some point, it's just not about gear anymore. - Qui
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • XSonOfCircex - Sanctuary
    XSonOfCircex - Sanctuary Posts: 1,173 Arc User
    edited February 2015
    Because .189% is so small, it's the fluctuations in how many attempts it can take will be expected to be very large.

    If you open hundreds of thousands of packs, yes, you can expect that you will see it be expected values, but as Joe said earlier about his own experience and as the math savvy people have pointed out, these values are just averages that may not correspond to your own experience. I'm lazy and terrible at stats, has anyone calculated standard deviation for it?
    xSonOfCircex-105/103/102 Sage Wiz
    DrakeEmpress-101/102/103 Sage Cleric
    Gaygasm-101/101/101 Sage Stormbringer

    Because I can't stand playing melee classes
  • odieuxconnard
    odieuxconnard Posts: 54 Arc User
    edited February 2015
    My experience here:

    I opened already 3k packs and i still need one A card. I got the 5 first with about 1800 packs (I opened 300 packs by 300 packs, that's why i can give this number) => so one different card for 360 packs opened which is kinda good.
    I opened 1200 packs for the last one and still nothing. I will try ext time to open 600 packs at once and see if i m more lucky.

    Today I have: 3 destroyers, 2 battles, 4 longevities, 2 durabilities, 3 soulprimes. This in 3k packs => so 1 card of the set every 215 packs.
  • Sylvae - Sanctuary
    Sylvae - Sanctuary Posts: 1,018 Arc User
    edited February 2015
    Yeah, it's basic averages I used instead of statistics. Statistics would have a "you have X% chance of getting all within Y-Z range of openings" The more accurate the x number is, the wider the value of the ranges.

    Similarly it's broken up because averages and such really only tell you what to expect, or what was expected; they don't really work mid-stream at all. For example, you can open 800 packs and then subtract that from the total. It technically resets every time, which is why you look at a sample size on a forward basis, or backward one.

    But this was more to compare the price between two different main paths, and so the main thing is to have the same method applied to each. It's possible to get even more technical, to state the likelihood of getting how many duplicates of 1st, 2nd, to 5th card on trying to get the 6th, etc.

    But really the main thing is getting a base line for comparison values to accurately compare. It's also possible to narrow things down so people can plug in their own values for gold price and FSP cost to see the value for their specific server.
  • freygin
    freygin Posts: 737 Arc User
    edited February 2015
    Jarkhen - Archosaur wrote: »
    Not quite -- 531 packs is the expected number of packs needed to get that card. It could easily be more (or less). Opening 531 packs gives you a 100%-[(100%-0.1885718%)^531] ~= 63.3% chance of getting the card in question.



    Not quite, because you aren't trying to get the cards in any particular order. If, for example, you had to get Emperor Locen first before you could get the rest of the set, and then you had to get Mistress second, and so on -- then you would be looking at 6x531 = 3186 expected packs.

    However, that's not how it works -- when starting out, you're only looking for any one of the six -- and since each one of those six has a 0.1885718% chance of coming out of any pack you open, you initially have a 6*0.1885718% = 1.1314308% chance of getting any of the needed cards. This is 1.1314308 cards out of every 100, or 1 card in every ~88.38 (slightly higher card count than Sylvae's needed due to more accurate %s being used here).

    After you get the first card of the set (whichever that may be), you have five remaining cards you need to complete the set -- a 5*0.1885718% = 0.942859% chance per pack, for an average of ~106.06 packs.

    You then continue this process until you're down to the last card, which as mentioned is a 0.1885718% chance, for about ~530.30 packs.


    Ah thanks for the explanation, for a set of Six, the first card should have the chance of 6*0.1885718% and so on.

    0/6 => 1.1314308% => 088.30 War Avatar Pack A ~ 89
    1/6 => 0.9428590% => 106.06 War Avatar Pack A ~ 107
    2/6 => 0.7542872% => 132.57 War Avatar Pack A ~ 133
    3/6 => 0.5657154% => 176.76 War Avatar Pack A ~ 177
    4/6 => 0.3771436% => 265.15 War Avatar Pack A ~ 266
    5/6 => 0.1885718% => 530.30 War Avatar Pack A ~ 531

    1303 War Avatar Pack A needed for full AEU set (mathematically). Unless your name is Joe then it's 1500 lol.


    Next I'd like to know how many War Avatar Pack S (with catalyst) to get all 6 random S with all slot types. Arawin made a youtube video about it and averaged at around 730 packs (iirc) needed to fill all slots.
  • Sylvae - Sanctuary
    Sylvae - Sanctuary Posts: 1,018 Arc User
    edited February 2015
    freygin wrote: »
    Next I'd like to know how many War Avatar Pack S (with catalyst) to get all 6 random S with all slot types. Arawin made a youtube video about it and averaged at around 730 packs (iirc) needed to fill all slots.

    Sounds a reasonable amount, since we get one given from quest and only need 5. And since it doesn't matter which, the final one will be around .32% chance to get at worst with .04 chance listed on database.

    Thing is, going that full amount does increase the chance of getting multiple card of other slots, which gives a good shot at getting sets as well. And since it is such a high amount, it is also recommended to do so on spend reward times of either free B-S packs, or if charging gold time it for the war avatar chest raffle times. Was trying to look through to see if they ever did that with spending, but doesn't appear so.

    EDIT: For an idea, out of 52 S cards, 43 are part of sets for S cards, and 3 more are part of hybrid A card sets. So only 6 of them aren't part of a set. Also B-S give chances for A cards as well, so you're technically working on A cards as well as S. Though personally, I don't care too much about sets that don't affect either SP or LP too much. Not at that high of a level of gear up anyways.
  • XSonOfCircex - Sanctuary
    XSonOfCircex - Sanctuary Posts: 1,173 Arc User
    edited February 2015
    http://pwi-forum.perfectworld.com/showthread.php?t=1685521

    The video to which you refer is there, it also includes stats on getting S card sets.
    xSonOfCircex-105/103/102 Sage Wiz
    DrakeEmpress-101/102/103 Sage Cleric
    Gaygasm-101/101/101 Sage Stormbringer

    Because I can't stand playing melee classes
  • freygin
    freygin Posts: 737 Arc User
    edited February 2015
    Now let's calculate how many War Avatar Pack S needed to fill All Slots.

    There are a total of 52 S cards with 0.04% chance for each one, they consist of :
    9 Destroyer
    9 Battle
    8 Longevity
    8 Durability
    9 Soulprime
    9 Lifeprime

    Chance for Destroyer or Battle or Soulprime or Lifeprime = 9 * 0.04 = 0.36%
    Chance for Longevity or Durability = 8 * 0.04 = 0.32%

    Destroyer==2.08% => 48.07692307692308 ~ 49
    Battle====1.72% => 58.13953488372093 ~ 59
    Longevity==1.40% => 71.42857142857143 ~ 72
    Durability==1.08% => 92.59259259259259 ~ 93
    Soulprime==0.72% => 138.8888888888889 ~ 139
    Lifeprime==0.36% => 277.7777777777778 ~ 278

    War Avatar Pack S needed to fill All Slots = 49+59+72+93+139+278= 690. Does that seem about right ?





    CMIIW, I'm curious. b:thanks
  • Father_gold - Sanctuary
    Father_gold - Sanctuary Posts: 449 Arc User
    edited February 2015
    so....much....archer.....math

    thanks guys i have cancer now.
  • freygin
    freygin Posts: 737 Arc User
    edited February 2015
    Father_gold - Sanctuary wrote: »
    so....much....archer.....math

    thanks guys i have cancer now.

    Life is full of math, even after you have cancer you still have to deal with it, cancer stage 1 2 3 4, your health bill, how many months you have left before dead, et cetera. b:chuckle
  • bloodedone87
    bloodedone87 Posts: 1,883 Arc User
    edited February 2015
    Stop all with this math cause it gives me a headache.

    Just become rich in game or in real life and buy 1milion packs.
    If you dont get your War Avatar Card Set in 1 milion packs than your luck is dead and buried.
    giphy.gif



  • freygin
    freygin Posts: 737 Arc User
    edited February 2015
    bloodedone87 wrote: »
    Stop all with this math cause it gives me a headache.

    Just become rich in game or in real life and buy 1milion packs.
    If you dont get your War Avatar Card Set in 1 milion packs than your luck is dead and buried.

    At least we'll know about the odds for whatever we're trying to get.

    Now let's get back to our math, shall we b:laugh
    freygin wrote: »
    Now let's calculate how many War Avatar Pack S needed to fill All Slots.

    There are a total of 52 S cards with 0.04% chance for each one, they consist of :
    9 Destroyer
    9 Battle
    8 Longevity
    8 Durability
    9 Soulprime
    9 Lifeprime

    Chance for Destroyer or Battle or Soulprime or Lifeprime = 9 * 0.04 = 0.36%
    Chance for Longevity or Durability = 8 * 0.04 = 0.32%

    Destroyer==2.08% => 48.07692307692308 ~ 49
    Battle====1.72% => 58.13953488372093 ~ 59
    Longevity==1.40% => 71.42857142857143 ~ 72
    Durability==1.08% => 92.59259259259259 ~ 93
    Soulprime==0.72% => 138.8888888888889 ~ 139
    Lifeprime==0.36% => 277.7777777777778 ~ 278

    War Avatar Pack S needed to fill All Slots = 49+59+72+93+139+278= 690. Does that seem about right ?





    CMIIW, I'm curious. b:thanks

    Correct me if I'm wrong, I'm still curious b:laugh
  • WannaBM - Archosaur
    WannaBM - Archosaur Posts: 1,984 Arc User
    edited February 2015
    I at least dont see anything wrong with it. b:victory

    i like this threat, i like the archer math.

    700 S packs
    1300 A packs

    ill commit it to memory even though its useless cuz i quit playing b:laugh
    Everything i write is from PvE perspective unless mentioned otherwise.
  • Sylvae - Sanctuary
    Sylvae - Sanctuary Posts: 1,018 Arc User
    edited February 2015
    freygin wrote: »
    Now let's calculate how many War Avatar Pack S needed to fill All Slots.

    There are a total of 52 S cards with 0.04% chance for each one, they consist of :
    9 Destroyer
    9 Battle
    8 Longevity
    8 Durability
    9 Soulprime
    9 Lifeprime

    Chance for Destroyer or Battle or Soulprime or Lifeprime = 9 * 0.04 = 0.36%
    Chance for Longevity or Durability = 8 * 0.04 = 0.32%

    Destroyer==2.08% => 48.07692307692308 ~ 49
    Battle====1.72% => 58.13953488372093 ~ 59
    Longevity==1.40% => 71.42857142857143 ~ 72
    Durability==1.08% => 92.59259259259259 ~ 93
    Soulprime==0.72% => 138.8888888888889 ~ 139
    Lifeprime==0.36% => 277.7777777777778 ~ 278

    War Avatar Pack S needed to fill All Slots = 49+59+72+93+139+278= 690. Does that seem about right ?





    CMIIW, I'm curious. b:thanks

    The only thing wrong would be automatically assuming one of the slots requiring 9 will be the final one. It's why worst case scenario would be one of the two with only 8, dropping the chance down to .32%. Which is likely why your average is coming out around 20 lower than the video.
  • freygin
    freygin Posts: 737 Arc User
    edited February 2015
    Sylvae - Sanctuary wrote: »
    The only thing wrong would be automatically assuming one of the slots requiring 9 will be the final one. It's why worst case scenario would be one of the two with only 8, dropping the chance down to .32%. Which is likely why your average is coming out around 20 lower than the video.

    Yea, you're right, if for example I put Longe and Dura at the last 2 coming out , the chances change and would need more S packs.
    Destroyer==2.08% => 48.07692307692308 ~ 49
    Battle====1.72% => 58.13953488372093 ~ 59
    Soulprime==1.36% => 73.52941176470588 ~ 74
    Lifeprime==1.00% => 100
    Longevity==0.64% => 156.25 ~157
    Durability==0.32% => 312.5 ~ 313

    Needs 49+59+74+100+157+313=752 S packs for this order, and this slots combination is the highest S packs needed I guess.

    There are 6! combinations for the slots, 6*5*4*3*2*1 = 720. But since four of them has the same amount of 9 cards and two of them has the same amount of 8 cards. The actual combinations should be less than that.

    Probably if all were taken into account, the average would be like Arawin's result which is more or less 710 cards.
  • Sylvae - Sanctuary
    Sylvae - Sanctuary Posts: 1,018 Arc User
    edited February 2015
    freygin wrote: »
    Yea, you're right, if for example I put Longe and Dura at the last 2 coming out , the chances change and would need more S packs.
    Destroyer==2.08% => 48.07692307692308 ~ 49
    Battle====1.72% => 58.13953488372093 ~ 59
    Soulprime==1.36% => 73.52941176470588 ~ 74
    Lifeprime==1.00% => 100
    Longevity==0.64% => 156.25 ~157
    Durability==0.32% => 312.5 ~ 313

    Needs 49+59+74+100+157+313=752 S packs for this order, and this slots combination is the highest S packs needed I guess.

    There are 6! combinations for the slots, 6*5*4*3*2*1 = 720. But since four of them has the same amount of 9 cards and two of them has the same amount of 8 cards. The actual combinations should be less than that.

    Probably if all were taken into account, the average would be like Arawin's result which is more or less 710 cards.

    Yeah, the larger the sample size the closer the deviation becomes, with infinite becoming the true average number basically. It's why I just go with that, because even using deviations just guarantees there is always a chance of outliers that will be outside it. And I'm cynical.
  • plusonepostcount
    plusonepostcount Posts: 77 Arc User
    edited February 2015
    dont ever expect to really finish a set unless u have no life and a **** ton of cash to waste. . . . don't get me wrong I've wasted my fare share of money on it but depending on different variables its different between serververs and gold demand

    I've yet to get half a set spending well over 300 mil towards a sets not including what I farmed and got free from codes just saying in game http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TptGx8QrqrY
  • WannaBM - Archosaur
    WannaBM - Archosaur Posts: 1,984 Arc User
    edited February 2015
    we were talking about billions as you can see mentioned and more precisely calculated troughout this thread.

    300m is pennies. You shouldnt be dreaming about war avatar sets and S cards when you can barely afford G16.

    Sorry for sounding condescending, its merely a reaction to your `dont ever expect to really finish a set unless u have no life and.......`
    Everything i write is from PvE perspective unless mentioned otherwise.
  • Sylvae - Sanctuary
    Sylvae - Sanctuary Posts: 1,018 Arc User
    edited February 2015
    plusonepostcount wrote: »
    dont ever expect to really finish a set unless u have no life and a **** ton of cash to waste. . . . don't get me wrong I've wasted my fare share of money on it but depending on different variables its different between serververs and gold demand

    I've yet to get half a set spending well over 300 mil towards a sets not including what I farmed and got free from codes just saying in game http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TptGx8QrqrY

    You're doing it wrong then. Actually having a life makes it easier to get a set, because that means you won't be playing. And only merchanting without doing any playing is the best way to earn money as a merchant. Otherwise you buy items to increase your character.

    Many times when I've quit, I've thought of still continuing to merchant. But usually I manage maybe a day or two before I just don't want to bother even with that. Because it's all based on interest level either way. But I do realize I'd easily have billions just from merchanting alone, which would take maybe 5 mins a day to do.
  • freygin
    freygin Posts: 737 Arc User
    edited March 2015
    Does PWI have separate type for avatar packs yet ?

    like this Destroyer pack for example http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/items/44015

    but sadly the chance combined for S is still smaller for 0.27% than the usual pack 0.32% / 0.36%.
  • Mosz - Heavens Tear
    Mosz - Heavens Tear Posts: 3,181 Arc User
    edited March 2015
    freygin wrote: »
    Does PWI have separate type for avatar packs yet ?

    like this Destroyer pack for example http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/items/44015

    but sadly the chance combined for S is still smaller for 0.27% than the usual pack 0.32% / 0.36%.

    yes, they are occasionally on sale in the boutique for 5? gold
  • freygin
    freygin Posts: 737 Arc User
    edited March 2015
    Looking at the chance in that specific pack and the normal s pack (with catalyst + fsp coins), what do you guys think ?
  • XSonOfCircex - Sanctuary
    XSonOfCircex - Sanctuary Posts: 1,173 Arc User
    edited March 2015
    freygin wrote: »
    Looking at the chance in that specific pack and the normal s pack (with catalyst + fsp coins), what do you guys think ?

    In my opinion, the FSP S pack will always be better. The higher chance of a given S card helps to compensate for it being more expensive (with prices on sanctuary it just would wind up costing about 13.4m per attempt compared to 8.55m for the slot specific packs) and it would allow you chances at other S packs that might help towards sets/rebirths of other cards.
    xSonOfCircex-105/103/102 Sage Wiz
    DrakeEmpress-101/102/103 Sage Cleric
    Gaygasm-101/101/101 Sage Stormbringer

    Because I can't stand playing melee classes
  • WannaBM - Archosaur
    WannaBM - Archosaur Posts: 1,984 Arc User
    edited March 2015
    XSonOfCircex - Sanctuary wrote: »
    In my opinion, the FSP S pack will always be better. The higher chance of a given S card helps to compensate for it being more expensive (with prices on sanctuary it just would wind up costing about 13.4m per attempt compared to 8.55m for the slot specific packs) and it would allow you chances at other S packs that might help towards sets/rebirths of other cards.

    Didnt look further into it, but it seems obvious to me that packs for a specific slot will be the key to completing sets. As we have seen in the calculations earlier in this thread, most of the packs are needed to fill the last 2 slots of a set. This can be significantly reduced by using slot specific ones for the last 1 or 2 slots.

    So i guess that is what the future will bring, Slot specific packs to reduce the amount needed & 50% off sales will together make the S sets affordable somewhere down the road.
    Everything i write is from PvE perspective unless mentioned otherwise.
  • Asterelle - Sanctuary
    Asterelle - Sanctuary Posts: 930 Arc User
    edited March 2015
    WannaBM - Archosaur wrote: »
    Didnt look further into it, but it seems obvious to me that packs for a specific slot will be the key to completing sets. As we have seen in the calculations earlier in this thread, most of the packs are needed to fill the last 2 slots of a set. This can be significantly reduced by using slot specific ones for the last 1 or 2 slots.

    So i guess that is what the future will bring, Slot specific packs to reduce the amount needed & 50% off sales will together make the S sets affordable somewhere down the road.
    Nope, the chances from those slot specific packs are terrible.

    http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/items/41836 Random specific destroyer A card is 0.19% from an A pack and 0.07 from destroyer pack

    http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/items/41789 Random specific destroyer S card is 0.02% from a normal S pack and 0.03 from from a destroyer S pack and 0.04 from FSP S pack.

    For A cards the best bang for your buck is the FSP A pack, for S cards the best is the FSP S pack. There is no reason to ever use those slot specific packs at the prices they are offered at.

    [sigpic][/sigpic]
    PWI Calculators - aster.ohmydays.net/pw
  • freygin
    freygin Posts: 737 Arc User
    edited March 2015
    WannaBM - Archosaur wrote: »
    Didnt look further into it, but it seems obvious to me that packs for a specific slot will be the key to completing sets. As we have seen in the calculations earlier in this thread, most of the packs are needed to fill the last 2 slots of a set. This can be significantly reduced by using slot specific ones for the last 1 or 2 slots.

    So i guess that is what the future will bring, Slot specific packs to reduce the amount needed & 50% off sales will together make the S sets affordable somewhere down the road.

    But this specific slot pack has smaller chance even after only one type left to fill. I was excited when I noticed this pack was listed in pwdatabase for getting specific slot card but looking at the chance ruins it.

    Numbers don't lie even if in the end luck takes a portion of the factor for getting things like this.

    Should experiment with sweetiebot later b:chuckle
  • Euzebe - Sanctuary
    Euzebe - Sanctuary Posts: 230 Arc User
    edited April 2015
    Only PWI would offer inferior packs at roughly the same price point.
  • mulier
    mulier Posts: 305 Arc User
    edited April 2015
    just like with normal packs ... some got 98.x% toekens. some got 95%

    some got 0.0005 on sot., some got 0.01

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