Gold price estimation

a while ago everyone was screaming about gold cap. So 3.3 sounds like down b:pleased

of course botting or no botting will have an influence. (as do many other factors) But its not like youre gonna notice it so quickly. Its all a slow proces. 2 years down the road youd probably see a difference if youd compare with a server where botting remains. But we cant compare so well never really know

There definately are significant coin sinks in the game dont worry about that. Just look at the NW forge alone. So many billions dissapear in there. And then think of all the poor HA toons spending some 500k every day to repair their gears. I dont know what the net balance is of TW, but i have the feeling that many millions are sunk in that. It is quite well as it should be, the new players getting coins (trough jolly jones and then BH) the coins flow upwards trough the economy, and the end game players spend them on these massive coin sinks.

If it werent nearly balanced (coin generation and coin destruction) it would be similar to Diablo2 and many other older games where coins lost their value completely in the first year after launch.

Removing botting has had an impact. Gold is down from its high. But all those billions of coins generated by botting pre-expansion, are mostly still in the system, and it will take time for a new equilibrium to be found.

Jadsia - Lost City wrote: »

botting brought into the system billions and billions of coin per day. All that income was suddenly cut off in an instant. If there was going to be some kind of impact on the economy from nerfing botting it would have already been underway. I stand by my comment that end game toons have very little incentive to NPC all that coin they are hoarding. I still bot almost every day and I stillget 5 times what the repair fee is.

It have had an effect, gold have gone down from 4mil to ~3-3.3m. Thats a pretty significant drop. I agree that end game toons have little to no incentive to NPC coins but most of the player base is not end game. As more and more of the coin generated gets used (at a discussable rate) gold prices will fall even more.

Jadsia - Lost City wrote: »

botting brought into the system billions and billions of coin per day.

Enormous exaggerations dont help. Were obviously talking millions, dozens of millions even, absolutely not billions.

Jadsia - Lost City wrote: »

All that income was suddenly cut off in an instant. If there was going to be some kind of impact on the economy from nerfing botting it would have already been underway.

What do you base that on ? gut feeling ? As said, the gold price has dropped. I personally dont believe that has much to do with the botting because it doesnt make sence that it would go that fast. The coins and gold are in the hands of merchants, they are roulating all the time (only a moron would be hoarding coins like you suggest in an inflative economy as we had last 6 years. We hoard gold or boutique items). As they are roulating all the time, it is more about the total amount there is than about what is generated this day. The past 6 years, a little more was generated then destroyed every day. his lead to about 5% inflation per month. If you reverse that balance of destruction and generation, it would lead to a similar deflation per month. Both are not noticable on short term as they drown in the 20% volatility caused by good sales, bad sales and charge rewards.

Jadsia - Lost City wrote: »

I stand by my comment that end game toons have very little incentive to NPC all that coin they are hoarding.

based on what ? how many NW forge items have you made ? how many TW bids have you placed ? Do you know what you are talking about ?
How about a few 100 R9s (not the botters) spending 500k each on repairs per day. Thats a few 100 mil right there.
How about a few 100 people per year outfitting a toon with all the NW items for a billion each. Thats a 100s of billions per year again (1 bil per day or so)

On top of that, you grossly contradict yourself. If people were hoarding coins and not turning them into gold to protect themselves against inflation, all these coins would just be sitting there, not bidding for gold, not causing the gold price to rise (and drop when you take the generation away)

WannaBM - Archosaur wrote: »

Enormous exaggerations dont help. Were obviously talking millions, dozens of millions even, absolutely not billions.

I was making 15mil a day, by myself. On earning time, easily with only 2 accounts. I know many people even violated the rules and ran many accounts.
If there was only 50 other people doing the same thing as me, that's 750mil worth of coin generated, per day.

Mayfly - Dreamweaver wrote: »

Removing botting has had an impact. Gold is down from its high. But all those billions of coins generated by botting pre-expansion, are mostly still in the system, and it will take time for a new equilibrium to be found.

On Archo the gold has gone down by ~20%, which is pretty significant in such short time frame.

WannaBM - Archosaur wrote: »

Enormous exaggerations dont help. Were obviously talking millions, dozens of millions even, absolutely not billions.


What do you base that on ? gut feeling ? As said, the gold price has dropped. I personally dont believe that has much to do with the botting because it doesnt make sence that it would go that fast. The coins and gold are in the hands of merchants, they are roulating all the time (only a moron would be hoarding coins like you suggest in an inflative economy as we had last 6 years. We hoard gold or boutique items). As they are roulating all the time, it is more about the total amount there is than about what is generated this day. The past 6 years, a little more was generated then destroyed every day. his lead to about 5% inflation per month. If you reverse that balance of destruction and generation, it would lead to a similar deflation per month. Both are not noticable on short term as they drown in the 20% volatility caused by good sales, bad sales and charge rewards.

based on what ? how many NW forge items have you made ? how many TW bids have you placed ? Do you know what you are talking about ?
How about a few 100 R9s (not the botters) spending 500k each on repairs per day. Thats a few 100 mil right there.
How about a few 100 people per year outfitting a toon with all the NW items for a billion each. Thats a 100s of billions per year again (1 bil per day or so)

On top of that, you grossly contradict yourself. If people were hoarding coins and not turning them into gold to protect themselves against inflation, all these coins would just be sitting there, not bidding for gold, not causing the gold price to rise (and drop when you take the generation away)

Not that I'm disagreeing with your post, just picking out 1 item. I believe TW bids are again reimbursed. It's been a long time since I did any bidding but I remember something about this being in one of the patch notes in the last year.

Also NW gear is a 1 time event, per item, per toon. Not much of a coin sink once people get it done. It is just a pretty huge limited fee.

Buying gold has a 2% coin sink fee. Building faction base and buying good from there is another coin sink.

On topic:

However I wouldn't bet on gold dropping too much. We may have lost botting but players gained quite a few BH 100 toons since Dec 16. If I were to run 10 toons through BH and got anything from 5m to 20m I have already made in BH what I lost in botting. This is per day as long as it is 3-1 or snake. Until people finish culti's then they can do AEU and EU.

I only bot exp now, I am one of those endgame toons. I am hoarding all my coins and expect to still double, triple it no matter the gold price. I sold out of all my merching items bought at the higher priced gold the first week botting was gone. I am not the only one.

I don't think lower geared toons are having any easier time buying gold or moving closer to their gear goals of r9, if they have any. Would like to hear from those people on it.

zombienationz wrote: »

This in red is probably under the realistic margins, i made like 15 million per char overnight, at least 10 other people have proved as much to me. so a few billions every day per server is entirely realistic imo. Thats 15 million in profit btw, you know after repairing lol

Of course the pvp servers are most likely an exception.

dafuc, more than 1m per hour, near 2 if you are talking about earning time nights ? my barb made only 500k per hour, killing those steelations near abadon in 1 crit (40%)or 2 non-crits.
My half billion estimate comes from actually counting the bots on archo server one time, finding a good 50 of them. x 24hours x 500k per hour. (though some obviously are much weaker and make much less) If other classes really make that much more per hour than a barb, then well i guess it could be well over that half billion per day.

WannaBM - Archosaur wrote: »

15 mil netto or bruto ? I think botting makes some 500k per hour netto if you have a strong toon ? means 4m on 8h earning time. 8m on 2 toons.
Anyway yes, i guess my dozens was a bit of a counter exaggeration. I guess around half a bil per day it could be. Which is indeed very significant and will overtime make such a big shift in the coin balance that PWI will probably have to add new unbottable coin generation for the starting players. Theyll just have to make it that farming these coins has to be done manually, takes full concentration so it cant be multiaccounted (or at least not too many at once) and produces no more than something between 500k and 1m per hour.

15mil profit, per day.
Earning time did not affect me, nor did it many others who were prepared for it. After 8 hours, stash gear to new bot and continue, on more than one account. The only time lost was the time to stash and fly back. Managing a switch every 8 hours wasn't hard to do.

Using your numbers, I come out low for what people could have been and were making with stronger bots and those who were running 3+ accounts.
2 bot accounts running 24/7, by your numbers, would have been 24mil a day for one person. 500k an hour, x2 accounts, x24hours.

Even if there was only 10 people doing this per server, thats 240mil generated in 1 day on a server. That's not even taking into account all the other bots who only ran 8 hours a day, but bot spots used 24/7. Once one bot left, another would quickly take its place.
One bot-spot, if it generated 500k an hour from 3 different bots, from 3 different people who used the spot sequentially generate 24mil per day between the 3 accounts (thats probably high as it would be empty for an undetermined amount of time until someone else took over). Just because your bot left a spot, doesn't mean that spot wasn't still generating coin almost 24 hours a day.

viviane19 wrote: »

Our server had perma 3.999.900 selling price and people were buying after update it went down to 2.1 m selling/buying
And now it going up again

I dont love McDonalds nooo I love Morai

2.1 o.O
More crazy than oil price. Did you short it at the right time ? b:chuckle

@WannaBM
What were you doing using a melee char to kill. Only good for picker.

@OP
As for gold price, well what do you want? It's not at max anymore.

I know people that ran over 15 clients for botting. Gold prices aren't going down anytime soon. On a side note i think PWE should open new servers with fresh economy cuz with the old servers new players are just left behind in so many ways.