AH Gold Bids.

jwillson123
jwillson123 Posts: 0 Arc User
edited July 2014 in General Discussion
Can someone explain me why this happens?
I am just curious and trying to find the reason why :)

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why not bid 3m to outbid the 2.2 m bid but instead bid 3.340 m

I seen this happening a lot during my time watching the market prices closely.

Could this be manipulating prices and may be main reason why gold price so expensive or something else?

I just find it curious to outbid someone for over a million coins.

They usually bid a low quantity like 10 gold or less till someone bite the bait and outbid them and bidding to get more gold.
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Post edited by jwillson123 on

Comments

  • Unknown
    Unknown
    edited July 2014
    This content has been removed.
  • WannaBM - Archosaur
    WannaBM - Archosaur Posts: 1,984 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    As you can see, the "market price" is around 3.3 - 3.5m now. The 2.2m is not really a serious bid. It can be there because someone made a typo, or it can be entered later when someone saw the buy list almost empty and figured to take a chance to get really cheap gold if a big seller comes. There might also have been a 3.3m bid that has been withdrawn.

    I think that is the most likely explanation for this list of prices.

    I sometimes overbid with a significant margin instead of just 100 coins for another reason though. Suppose you place an order for 50gold and then come 3 people who all put in an order for 5-10 gold. You dont worry, some seller will come with a decent amount and poof they are all gone and you still get your gold. Suppose however it is a good bussiness week not only for you but also the other merchants who are desperate to buy lots of gold. You place your order and there come 3 50-70 gold orders on top of you. Now it looks grim for your order. You can withdraw it and place it on top again, but probable the others will do it too and all that happens is everyone bidding over the other, pushing up the gold price and losing 2% every time. In his case it is better to just step up and overbid by 100k for example. This will usually dissuade others from overbidding you again. They now are more likely to just let you have the first bid rather than raise their bid by 100k+

    Sometimes however i do see bids that to mee feel like it may be an attempt to manipulate the gold market. This kind of manipulation will however only have a very temporary effect and is probably not worth the effort. Say for example a gold seller comes along now and places a tiny buy order at 3.45, hoping that someone else will then put in a big one at 3.46 so that he can sell his gold for that price instead of the 3.35. He will still have to wait for someone to put in a buy order for him to take advantage of. Since his bet is only tiny, there is a big chance that before this happens, someone will actually take his 3.45 buy order. Its probably more effective for him to just put his gold in the AH for 3.46 and await a buyer.
    The 2.2 - 3.35m gap cannot be attributed to such kind of manipulation. Those who are active on the gold market know what the gold price was yesterday, last week etc. It can change, and under the presure of sales it can change quite a bit, but noone is going to jump from 2.2 to 3.3m just because there is a bid in the AH but no other good reason.
    Everything i write is from PvE perspective unless mentioned otherwise.
  • seitori
    seitori Posts: 1,328 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    What WannaBM has said above is true^^

    Sadly the AH has little longstanding effect on the actual costs of in-game gold, the only real reason why the costs of gold has Skyrocketed right now, is the (ill-planned) introduction of the official 'Auto-culti' (bott system) "a major coin maker" and not even a single introduction of a real option at an effective 'Coin sink' "to get rid of the massive glutt of new 'in-game coin' that the auto-culti system has flooded the game with" b:surrender

    If they were too (one day) actually introduce effective ways for npcs to sell truly wanted items into the game > for the in-game coin & etc. (such as an NPC who could sell 'basic refining items' & 'Silver HP & MP charms' and stuff like that "for a set price") then you'd begin to watch an eventual drop in both 'gold prices' and other items such as the completely overpriced 'Platinum charms' & 'High level-Dragon Orbs' since people would then have a "set price / affordable way" to buy (short term) alternative charms and also 'low level- 1 star orbs' that one could then combine & refine into the eventual 'higher level orbs' that we all need, to regulate the current all too manipulated market prices, that the greedy, price Gouging merchants are currently still able to manipulate (with little chance of being stopped) as they use the current stiuation to cause whatever level of hyperinflation they feel that they can get away with (in this zero regulation, un-competitive market) that we are still stuck with, since 'Wanmei' has not brought in a fully comprehensive (in-game) NPC sales market of needed items (to regulate the Gold market speculators & their ilk) b:surrenderb:surrender

    b:bye
  • jwillson123
    jwillson123 Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    I was thinking that another reason is merchants.

    For example merchant buy 30 gold at 3.2m to buy ocean orb +10

    If gold go down to 3.2m they lose profit.

    As long as people buy the merchant ocean orbs for 120m.
    He can use that money to buy more orbs at 3.3m not only keeping competition away and keeping people that like to buy from ah instead of his shop.

    Since there is so much coins running in the server merchant will not have much trouble selling them for 120m.
    Also even if he do not make any sell and keeps buying gold till the sells end he will have lots of gold by the end of the sell to buy lots of oceans.
    So that when the sales ends he will have lots of stock of oceans that he will be able to sell the orbs to an even higher price than 120m and make even more profit.
    People say they are forced to buy because they have no choice. So as long as that mentality running in the server the merchant will make a profit for stopping others from buying gold and increasing his stock of goods.
    Do you want PWI to fix the economy before is to late?
    please support Perfect World International Forum > Suggestion Box
    > Limit Auto Cultivation to 1 hour just like Hyper stones
  • WannaBM - Archosaur
    WannaBM - Archosaur Posts: 1,984 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    jwillson123 wrote: »
    I was thinking that another reason is merchants.

    I know it is popular to blame merchants, just like bankers in real life. When you feel the need to make such blame, i think it is important to detect in yourself what is caused by basic emotions (feeling disadvantaged, powerless to change the situation etc) and what is based on logical reasoning. Lets look at the facts.

    For example merchant buy 30 gold at 3.2m to buy ocean orb +10

    If gold go down to 3.2m they lose profit.

    *assumes typo, you probably meant the second 3.2m to be a lower number than the first 3.2m*
    Not really, i cant speak for other merchants, but the way i look at things is this:
    Gold is what buys the things we need. Gold has a value only subject to the 2 - 3 % inflation on our reallife currencies. Coins are actually needed for nothing other than buying gold and they are subject to PWIs 50-100% yearly inflation. The mere fact that people still accept them for gold could be considered slightly surprising. Therefore, i calculate in gold and i hold my merchanting capital in gold. As soon as i sell something and get crappy useless coins, i turn them back into gold asap. So if gold goes down, that is in my advantage because i dont look back at what i have payed for gold in the past. When i sell my ocean orb today, i want to know how much gold i buy back for those coins today. I do not care how much coins the orb was worth on the day i bought it for 30 gold. I payed 30 gold for it, so i want 31 or more gold for it now. I do think other succesfull merchants think at least somewhat similar about gold and coins. A merchant who looks at what he payed in the past instead of looking at todays gold price is not so likely to be succesfull.


    As long as people buy the merchant ocean orbs for 120m.
    He can use that money to buy more orbs at 3.3m not only keeping competition away and keeping people that like to buy from ah instead of his shop.

    He cant sell ocean orbs for 120m and certainly not keep competition away. This is primarily the part of your post where i dont exactly understand what you are trying to say though. You cant "hold the competion away" by selling items expensively. You can only hold the competition away by selling items with minimal margin. Competition is the reason that with a gold price of 3.3 (*30 + fee = 101m) he can probably sell it for 105m max. That is how competition works and that is the reason why people indeed buy from these merchants instead of from the AH. The merchant made it his job to buy gold from the AH for the best price he can, the customer pays a small margin so he doesnt have to spend time getting gold out of the AH for a beneficial price (the buy direct price is often already more expensive than what the merchants ask for their goods)

    Since there is so much coins running in the server merchant will not have much trouble selling them for 120m.

    He will, because other sell them for less. And if there is 1 merchant cheaper than 120m you most likely will not sell a single ocean orb if you keep your price at 120m. Merchants bid down on the price till 1 wins and the others just give up because they think such a small margin is not worth the effort. Only the first day of a new sale good margins can be made.

    Also even if he do not make any sell and keeps buying gold till the sells end he will have lots of gold by the end of the sell to buy lots of oceans.
    So that when the sales ends he will have lots of stock of oceans that he will be able to sell the orbs to an even higher price than 120m and make even more profit.

    True. Because the merchant chose not to spend his money on nice gears and fasion but chooses to invest it now, he makes a profit later. Meanwhile the not so patient customer who buys these ocean orbs while they are not on sale also benefits because without the merchant he wouldnt be able to buy them at all (or much more expensive for other items that actually have a non-sale price) This is a win-win situation where both parties participate happy and willingly. I think it is unfair for one to to have a blaming attitude towards the other.

    People say they are forced to buy because they have no choice. So as long as that mentality running in the server the merchant will make a profit
    Yes as i said above. If people would simply be patient and only buy during sale, merchants would lose much of their profit opportunity. But you all want it NOW. So we provide and everyone gets what they want. win-win.

    for stopping others from buying gold and increasing his stock of goods.
    We cant stop anyone from buying gold. We dont want the gold price to go up (i dont for sure because besides a merchant, i am also a consumer and a bit of a farmer) It goes up because everyone wants ocean orbs and indeed because everyone has a ****load of coins to buy them with. Doesnt matter if it goes trough merchants or not. If there is 10 billion coins in the pockets of players who want to buy ocean orbs and only 3000 gold is being brought to the market by cashshoppers who want to sell their gold for cions during this week, then that is what decides the price of gold. Not any merchant or person makes such decision



    I find it a bit hard to interpret what you really are trying to say, but i try... Sorry if there is some misinterpretation.

    While im defending us merchants as a whole, i will however also admit some guilt. I did repeatedly approach other merchants to stop the price competition where noone really makes any worthy profit (going down to say a 2% margin and sometimes even 0% margin just to **** the competetor) and instead agree to both hold the same price that is more worth it for both of us even though we then share the market (say 6% margin) but most other merchants still wont compete with us cuz they think 10-20% margins are reasonable.
    In real life, they put people in jail for this kind of agreements. So yes i am guilty :p You can rejoice however, the market of supply and demand is stronger also than i am. Not many merchants agree to this and even if they do, it usually takes only hours for another one to undercut us and destroy the whole nefarious plan.
    Everything i write is from PvE perspective unless mentioned otherwise.
  • jwillson123
    jwillson123 Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    WannaBM - Archosaur wrote: »
    I find it a bit hard to interpret what you really are trying to say, but i try... Sorry if there is some misinterpretation.

    While im defending us merchants as a whole, i will however also admit some guilt. I did repeatedly approach other merchants to stop the price competition where noone really makes any worthy profit (going down to say a 2% margin and sometimes even 0% margin just to **** the competetor) and instead agree to both hold the same price that is more worth it for both of us even though we then share the market (say 6% margin) but most other merchants still wont compete with us cuz they think 10-20% margins are reasonable.
    In real life, they put people in jail for this kind of agreements. So yes i am guilty :p You can rejoice however, the market of supply and demand is stronger also than i am. Not many merchants agree to this and even if they do, it usually takes only hours for another one to undercut us and destroy the whole nefarious plan.

    Your post was really helpful. It made me realize something so amazing :). Thank you WannaBM
    Do you want PWI to fix the economy before is to late?
    please support Perfect World International Forum > Suggestion Box
    > Limit Auto Cultivation to 1 hour just like Hyper stones
  • rageklil
    rageklil Posts: 1 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    On some servers the biggest merchants and holders of huge capital shocks the market during sales to create unpredictable prices short-term. This is a more or less effective way to scare the competitors into increasing their margins. Only works against low capital merchants.
  • Fae_Harpy - Archosaur
    Fae_Harpy - Archosaur Posts: 267 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    Just out of curiosity, is it against the ToS to purposely manipulate the gold prices in the AH (either lower or raising the price)? I've always wondered; obviously people who sell a lot of gold it would be to their benefit if they were allowed to b:question
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  • Verenor - Morai
    Verenor - Morai Posts: 699 Arc User
    edited July 2014
    Fae_Harpy - Archosaur wrote: »
    Just out of curiosity, is it against the ToS to purposely manipulate the gold prices in the AH (either lower or raising the price)? I've always wondered; obviously people who sell a lot of gold it would be to their benefit if they were allowed to b:question

    Since the whole merchanting-business is based on that and all those people are sadly still around, yes it seems allowed.

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