TT drops Rates
Darkkrow - Archosaur
Posts: 22 Arc User
It me or have many noticed the gold drop rate in TT 3-1 and up are insanely low, was this intentional or a bug'?
Cause u use to do TT a lot maybe 30 per day and recently even in 30 runs no gold drop , which i normally get like at least 7-12 gold drops even not when its double drops.
So can any Gm's or Dev's check in to this matter pls ,
Thank you very fun
Cause u use to do TT a lot maybe 30 per day and recently even in 30 runs no gold drop , which i normally get like at least 7-12 gold drops even not when its double drops.
So can any Gm's or Dev's check in to this matter pls ,
Thank you very fun
Post edited by Darkkrow - Archosaur on
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im sure i see this thread every single week b:byeb:byeb:bye[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
noob, can only run, spawnkiller, only white vodoo, only plays for kd,
never kills anyone, only gear, no skill, no life, cash only, eats dogfood to cash more, lives at moms,
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RankNine - Momaganon wrote: »im sure i see this thread every single week b:byeb:byeb:bye
you might drop rates going down like that isn't normal so either they have reduced the drop rate or it its a bug , which i am sure many are waiting it to be fixed please vote on poll , it really might make a difference that many taking this issue like this0 -
- They have reduced drop rate
- It is a bug
- It is variance
I vote option 3Everything i write is from PvE perspective unless mentioned otherwise.0 -
The drop rates are not changed. We have superstitious people claiming it is every other week and not a single time has their claims of what they "should" be getting had any substance. This time is no different.(Insert fancy image here)
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Ah, this thread again. Hello old friend, how have you been? Are the kids okay? Oh wow, they're 17 now huh? That's great man! Well listen, I've gotta get going but next time you come around let's do lunch![SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
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I ran a 3-3 run yesterday and FOUR gold mats dropped. I don't think droprates are a problem b:cute[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
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*sees ******** about droprates*
*sees it's 3-1 being ******* about*
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105/105/105 obtained! b:cute0 -
Vedovis - Lost City wrote: »I ran a 3-3 run yesterday and FOUR gold mats dropped. I don't think droprates are a problem b:cute
4 gold mats in a run? b:shutup you must be very lucky.0 -
Just go back a few months and I've posted supporting data verifying that the drop rates for TT mats have not changed one iota since 2008.[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]0
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SylenThunder - Sanctuary wrote: »Just go back a few months and I've posted supporting data verifying that the drop rates for TT mats have not changed one iota since 2008.
Go back four months b:shocked. The horror. Use search option b:shutup. *Rage quits pwi*
BTW OP, the more tt you run, lower the drop rates become. Gold mat drop rate is lets say 10%. You do 3 runs, 10%x10%x10% = that is 0.1%.
You do 30 runs a day b:cool, that is 0.0000000000000000000000000001% to get a gold drop on your 30th run.
Math never lies b:shutup.
To all those who want to .........., let's not, let's see where this goes b:mischievous0 -
b:chuckle
That's not the way probability works.[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
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skullterror wrote: »4 gold mats in a run? b:shutup you must be very lucky.
I think the other veno was secretly a genie in disguise. I vowed to bring her to all further HH runs b:chuckle[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
| Signature made by Fishy!~ | Semiretired |0 -
people stil lrun tt?..dannnnggggggggg,last run I did we had a +12 r9s3 and he didn't know jack about tt..see this is why the game fails now when you can just buy your **** out the shop..ggb:bye0
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Darkkrow - Archosaur wrote: »It me or have many noticed the gold drop rate in TT 3-1 and up are insanely low, was this intentional or a bug'?
Cause u use to do TT a lot maybe 30 per day and recently even in 30 runs no gold drop , which i normally get like at least 7-12 gold drops even not when its double drops.
So can any Gm's or Dev's check in to this matter pls ,
Thank you very fun
In my long TT experience. TT 3-1, aside from Iron plates of darkness & Evil Minion Horn/Shell, has the worst drop rates of any TT anyhow. Even worse than 3-2 and 3-3. Simply because less items drop from those bosses, and the chance is pretty low.
Without 2x, its very likely to see no green drops from any of the bosses except the first 2 whom I've had times where one didn't drop a single green.Jaabg - Sanctuary wrote: »Go back four months b:shocked. The horror. Use search option b:shutup. *Rage quits pwi*
BTW OP, the more tt you run, lower the drop rates become. Gold mat drop rate is lets say 10%. You do 3 runs, 10%x10%x10% = that is 0.1%.
You do 30 runs a day b:cool, that is 0.0000000000000000000000000001% to get a gold drop on your 30th run.
Math never lies b
To all those who want to .........., let's not, let's see where this goes b:mischievous
Lol your math is horribly wrong. b:chuckle
They are independent events of each other so you don't multiply the chance of getting a gold mat together. Its additive.
Learn some math....
Please disregard this idiot's math calculations.YOUTUBE:
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It's not additive either. If you have a 10% chance of getting a drop, and do it 10 times, you do not have a 100% chance of getting the drop; you have a (1-(.9^10))*100% (or 65.13%) chance of getting at least one drop.[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
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Mayfly - Dreamweaver wrote: »It's not additive either. If you have a 10% chance of getting a drop, and do it 10 times, you do not have a 100% chance of getting the drop; you have a (1-(.9^10))*100% (or 65.13%) chance of getting at least one drop.
Actually. you are correct. b:chuckle
Didn't mean to say additive.
Ya it is 1- probability of it not occurring in any of the 10 tries.
Its funny because I always go to my college friend asking her math questions cuz she was a math major, for her to figure out the probability of something. And I've heard this so many times, yet I always forget. LOL b:laughYOUTUBE:
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LostPoet - Dreamweaver wrote: »Learn some math....
Please disregard this idiot's math calculations.
Please learn to infer thingsJaabg - Sanctuary wrote: »Math never lies b:shutup.
To all those who want to .........., let's not, let's see where this goes b:mischievous
On a side note, do you think giving OP the correct percentage/probaility will make him/her change their mind? I would say no, because this topic wouldn't exist if they could change their mind on the issue. Hence read the above again and have some fun b:chuckle.0 -
>Talking about percentages and chance
>Implying math will give a 100% clear answer about when something will drop in TT
>Something can drop in 1 run, something can drop in 100 runs
>It's random
>I just used a percentage
>Therefor i'm a hypocrit
>This thread, again
>TT Drop rates haven't changed in ever
Potato.Soon™
Well, maybe later, semi-retired.0 -
The drop rates are not changed. We have superstitious people claiming it is every other week and not a single time has their claims of what they "should" be getting had any substance. This time is no different.
its changed i woud know i practically live in TT my whole day so, i'd say it has dropped0 -
Darkkrow - Archosaur wrote: »its changed i woud know i practically live in TT my whole day so, i'd say it has dropped
No, it hasn't.
Just because you have a string of **** drops doesn't mean the droprate was lowered.Soon™
Well, maybe later, semi-retired.0 -
Darkkrow - Archosaur wrote: »it's changed ... I would know I practically live in TT my whole day so, I'd say it has dropped
In order to KNOW that the rates have changed, you need to create a record/log of all the runs and their results. "Living in TT" and seeing no Gold Drops for a period of time does not actually say much.
For Example (these are not actual run results ... I have just created data to demonstrate the point):
TT 3-1
Boss: Illusion Nemen:Null
Drop: Sacred Mother's Aura
Hypothesis: Drop Rate is lower than presented in PWDB.
PWDB Data for Sacred Mother's Aura:
Drop Rate: 0.5705% (per roll)
Drops: 3 x 4 @ 100% (12 drops/rolls per boss kill)
Test #1
Boss Kills: 43
Results: 0 drops of Sacred Mother's Auras
Likelihood of Result (p-value): 5.22%
Accept/Reject Hypothesis: Reject at 95%; Reject at 99%
(The Hypothesis could have been true, but this is not enough data to support it.)
==========
Test #2
Boss Kills: 68
Results: 0 drops of Sacred Mother's Auras
Likelihood of Result (p-value): 0.9385%
Accept/Reject Hypothesis: Accept at 95%; Accept at 99%
(The data supports the Hypothesis.)
From Test #1, killing Nemen:Null even 43 times in a row without a single Sacred Mother's Aura drop is STILL not enough to accept the idea that the drop rates have changed at a statistically significant level.
From Test #2, once a period of 68 kills in a row results in no Aura drops, then the result has a strong statistical significance and supports the idea that the hypothesis is true.
[44 to 67 Nemen:Null Kills with 0 Auras has a weak statistical significance and would suggest more data be collected before accepting or rejecting the Hypothesis.]
NOTES:
Even one drop will completely change the results: P(<=1 drop in 43 kills) = 20.68%
The hypothesis can only be accepted if the P-value is under 5% (weak acceptance) or 1% (strong acceptance). [I am using the one-tail probability values because I don't think anyone would care if Test #1 had more than 6 Aura's drop, even though this would be statistically significant as well.]
Calculations like this would have to be done on each boss considering each potential gold drop, therefore the log would have to indicate which boss was killed and how many times.
It is not enough to say "I killed Nemen:Null 43 times and got no drops" as the 43 times have to be consecutive WITHOUT a Gold Aura drop on all 43 kills. It is meaningless to kill Nemen:Null 44+ times, and say "43 times I did not get a Gold drop" as that completely invalidates the statistic.
Getting 1 Aura in 69 Nemen:Null kills is not a significant deviation from the expected results.
Good Luck!Dante: "Cute is a relative term."0 -
30 runs a day would be 4-5 hours a day i think, I bet these kind of players has switched to botting or quit already, because its realy not worth the time spended looking at goldprices.
But u got my respect, a real free to play player b:surprised0 -
Actually, in order to ACTUALLY KNOW, you need access to the server code from various versions, (which I happen to have), and I have previously confirmed here in the forums that there has been absolutely no changes in the TT Mat drop rates on the bosses since closed beta in 2008.Bosk - Sanctuary wrote: »In order to KNOW that the rates have changed, you need to create a record/log of all the runs and their results. "Living in TT" and seeing no Gold Drops for a period of time does not actually say much.
...[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]0 -
There is always a percentage to get no gold drops. Even if roughly 60% chance in 30 runs to get one, there is still 40% chance of getting none each time.
It's what one would say as a long string of bad luck.Malice Leader - Raging Tides
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SylenThunder - Sanctuary wrote: »Actually, in order to ACTUALLY KNOW, you need access to the server code from various versions, (which I happen to have), and I have previously confirmed here in the forums that there has been absolutely no changes in the TT Mat drop rates on the bosses since closed beta in 2008.
That's not exactly something that's available to us mere mortals (or is it?) but even so, that does not prove that the rates have not changed, only that the tables have not. (Although, I am pretty sure they did change because PWI removed the Fairy Boxes at some point, and everything changed after that ... of course, that change was for the better when considering Gold drop rates.)
The problem involves not only the tables but also the integrity of the random number generator, which is another part of the scenario that is constantly coming into question. Even if the code for the RNGs has not changed, the method of seeding them may have ... or if they are hardware based (I doubt anyone would bother for a game) there could be a potential issue in the source of the entropy.
And it is still possible that PWI has written additional code to interfere with the results, such as a filter that switches out a gold matt for a standard matt 50% of the time. The table would still appear the same, but the actual drops that happen in the game would not appear at the rate given in the tables.
Thus, I still think that a statistical test is going to offer the best overall confidence for determining whether or not the drop rate is as advertised or not.
Another thing of some interest to me is that many drop tables in the PWDB do not add up to 100%. The probabilities for all the cards in the War Avatar A pack for example adds up to 100.24%. Likely this is just due to rounding, but it would be nice to look at the actual table to see where the rounding occurs. If it is not rounding, then something is going to be off, as the RNG likely returns a value from 0.000000 to 0.999999 and the table needs the value to be from 0.000000 to 1.002399 in order for every card to have the stated chance of occurring (which is still not going to be accurate, but whatever.)
Still, having the server source code sounds pretty kool ... what exactly do I have to do to get a peek?
Good Luck!Dante: "Cute is a relative term."0 -
The randomizer is the hardest part to figure out, but in runs we're done, the resulting drop rates were almost exact with what it shows in the tables.Bosk - Sanctuary wrote: »That's not exactly something that's available to us mere mortals (or is it?) but even so, that does not prove that the rates have not changed, only that the tables have not. (Although, I am pretty sure they did change because PWI removed the Fairy Boxes at some point, and everything changed after that ... of course, that change was for the better when considering Gold drop rates.)
The problem involves not only the tables but also the integrity of the random number generator, which is another part of the scenario that is constantly coming into question. Even if the code for the RNGs has not changed, the method of seeding them may have ... or if they are hardware based (I doubt anyone would bother for a game) there could be a potential issue in the source of the entropy.
And it is still possible that PWI has written additional code to interfere with the results, such as a filter that switches out a gold matt for a standard matt 50% of the time. The table would still appear the same, but the actual drops that happen in the game would not appear at the rate given in the tables.
Thus, I still think that a statistical test is going to offer the best overall confidence for determining whether or not the drop rate is as advertised or not.
Another thing of some interest to me is that many drop tables in the PWDB do not add up to 100%. The probabilities for all the cards in the War Avatar A pack for example adds up to 100.24%. Likely this is just due to rounding, but it would be nice to look at the actual table to see where the rounding occurs. If it is not rounding, then something is going to be off, as the RNG likely returns a value from 0.000000 to 0.999999 and the table needs the value to be from 0.000000 to 1.002399 in order for every card to have the stated chance of occurring (which is still not going to be accurate, but whatever.)
Still, having the server source code sounds pretty kool ... what exactly do I have to do to get a peek?
Good Luck!
The fairy boxes and such only changed the number of items that were select-able to be dropped, and they adjusted the number of items that dropped; not the actual rates of the drops themselves. It's never had an effect on the mat drops.
As for the %'s, they are rounded. IIRC the server goes 6-8 digits past the decimal, but it's been a bit since I bothered to look.
For the server code, know where to look, and know people. b:pleased I'm currently working on server version 1.5.0. Edit: I PM'ed you.[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]0 -
By this logic they must have INCREASED the drop rates, 8 gold mats off from 5 runs. b:pleasedLeader of Cyanure on Valonsurma and a proud member of Vertu
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SylenThunder - Sanctuary wrote: »Actually, in order to ACTUALLY KNOW, you need access to the server code from various versions, (which I happen to have), and I have previously confirmed here in the forums that there has been absolutely no changes in the TT Mat drop rates on the bosses since closed beta in 2008.
The data in here http://www.pwdatabase.com/mob/14782 is correct i assume ?Everything i write is from PvE perspective unless mentioned otherwise.0 -
As far as I've been able to tell, yes.WannaBM - Archosaur wrote: »The data in here http://www.pwdatabase.com/mob/14782 is correct i assume ?
I took averages on drops for 20 runs, and it all came out at almost exactly the percentages listed in pwdatabase.
It also matches the drop rates I have listed from all the way back to server version 1.3.6[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]0
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