How lucky u open cards pack? compared with average chance and cost

attackerv
attackerv Posts: 295 Arc User
edited January 2014 in General Discussion
In pwcn forum, many ppl share how lucky or unluckys from cards pack

so I try to initial a post fot that and share ur lucky or unlucky

also, i will give estimation for how expansive for card (if something wrong, plz let me know) so that ppl can know what stage their card is in and need how many coins or gold for finished their card.

But this is average cost. u may spend more or less than average cost , that up to ur lucky.

b:chuckle

========================================
here is an appoximation, that each position is the same chance. There are some slight difference in fact. so we can estimate average card(same class) need for the position

1 position 1
2 position 1+6/5=2.2
3 position 1+6/5+6/4=3.7
4 position 1+6/5+6/4+6/3=5.7
5 position 1+6/5+6/4+6/3+6/2=8.7
6 position 1+6/5+6/4+6/3+6/2+6=14.7

set 1 FS untradable coins=0.25m (RT server market buying price by C pack)

===================================

C-A chance 13.3%, 20coins=5m

1A=1/13.3%=7.5 packs(days)=37.5m

full A=5A+1free(from quest)=37.5packs(days)=187.5m

full A+full position=13.7A+1free=102.8 packs(days)=513.8m

A full exp=450exp=45days(FS)=225m (each A , averagely get 8.05 exp from B and C, too little so ignore those exp)

full A+full position+full exp=102.8 days+45X6days=372.8 days=1452.8m




conclusion:
basically and averagely, doing daily FS one year can get full A+full position+full exp

====================================================

B-S chance 2.08%, 10coins=2.5m set buying 1 gold =2.3m (RT server price)

1S=1/2.08%=48 packs=24days=5m*24+8g*24*2.3m=561.6m

full S=5S+1free=120days=2808m

full S+full position=13.7S+1free=328.8days=7693.9m

S full exp=1456exp=145.6days(FS)=728m ( each S, averagly get 103.8 exp from B and A, too little so ignore those exp)

full S+full position+full exp=328.8days+145.6*6days=1202.4days=12062m


conclusion:

basically and averagely, for full S+full position+full exp, u need

daily FS 11months+2630.4golds+4368m(for exp)

=====================================================
C-S chance 1.04% 4gold

1S=1/1.04%=96.2 packs=385golds

full S=5S+1free=1925golds

full S+full position=13.7S+1free=5274.5golds

full S+full position+full exp=5274.5golds+4368m



conclusion

avragely, if charge money for full S+full postion+full exp, need about 7173.6golds=5904.2$ (consider 15% charge bonus)

=====================================================
Nuema portal set

not consider awakend, only open C-S pack by CS

1st=52/6=8.7S
2nd=52/6+52/5=19S
3rd=52/6+52/5+52/4=32S
4th=52/6+52/5+52/4+52/3=49.4S
5th=52/6+52/5+52/4+52/3+52/2=75.4S
6th=52/6+52/5+52/4+52/3+52/2+52=127.4S

full set=126.4S+1free=48664 golds

Conclusion

If only CS, Nuema portal set averagely need 40053$ (exp feeding cost can be ignored cuz too little in total cost)


=====================================

now, just show how many packs u open and get how many A or S. Compare with average chance, u will know how lucky or unlucky ur.

here is my case

open 900 golds C-S packs(225packs) get (5S+6A) ( very lucky )
about 1 months B-S packs get (1S+3A) ( normal )
free from quest(1S+1A)

position: 4 positions by 7S ( normal )
Post edited by attackerv on
Main Chars in tidewell:
Attacker_V: archer
Seraphim_V: Veno
xNightshadowx: db

Comments

  • Angel_Spawn - Sanctuary
    Angel_Spawn - Sanctuary Posts: 3,034 Arc User
    edited January 2014
  • Desdi - Sanctuary
    Desdi - Sanctuary Posts: 8,680 Arc User
    edited January 2014
    Conclusion - play lottery in stead. b:surrender

    b:laugh
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  • Fissile - Archosaur
    Fissile - Archosaur Posts: 607 Arc User
    edited January 2014
    I opened 25 C-S packs and got all C and B cards. I opened about a dozen B-S packs and got all B cards except for one A card. I've given up on the cards for now. I'm just feeding XP into the ones I have currently until the price comes down to something reasonable. I'm sure by the end of the year there will be like a 50% sale or something on the catalysts.
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  • Angel_Spawn - Sanctuary
    Angel_Spawn - Sanctuary Posts: 3,034 Arc User
    edited January 2014
    I opened 25 C-S packs and got all C and B cards. I opened about a dozen B-S packs and got all B cards except for one A card. I've given up on the cards for now. I'm just feeding XP into the ones I have currently until the price comes down to something reasonable. I'm sure by the end of the year there will be like a 50% sale or something on the catalysts.

    Pretty much the same, now only getting the "free" chests from fsp this is a ridiculous coin sink and for a reason, it`s way too OP, so only the elite will have epic cards/sets.
  • Azura - Lost City
    Azura - Lost City Posts: 2,281 Arc User
    edited January 2014
    Thanks a lot for this post, this is exactly what I wanted to know...

    Just yesterday I quit trying with S chests, because expending 16m everyday was gonna left me broke in probably 2 more months, and I'm still not +12.

    But, I was wondering how much it would take to get a full deck of S cards. So it's really a lot of money. How much would it be for just full deck of S, but level 1 cards though?

    I guess I got lucky because I got 3 S cards, with about 200 gold (or not lucky really?).
  • Fissile - Archosaur
    Fissile - Archosaur Posts: 607 Arc User
    edited January 2014
    3 S cards in 50 packs (200 gold) is a bit lucky but not extremely so. A bigger issue is getting cards for slots you haven't filled. The biggest is getting cards to complete a set.

    3 S cards... lucky
    3 S cards all occupying different slots... quite a bit luckier
    3 different S cards of the same set... extremely lucky
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  • FistToDeath - Dreamweaver
    FistToDeath - Dreamweaver Posts: 482 Arc User
    edited January 2014
    I opened ~65 boutique packs, then ~12 boss packs = ~77 C-S packs. 3 S cards from those, 10 A cards. I think only 5 Cs or so.

    Also, something like 6 B-S packs. 1 S card from this. Rest were Bs.

    Best thing is among my A cards I got the full three venerators set and 3/4 of SoT.

    Pretty lucky I guess.
  • Socqar - Lost City
    Socqar - Lost City Posts: 511 Arc User
    edited January 2014
    Thanks a lot for this post, this is exactly what I wanted to know...

    Just yesterday I quit trying with S chests, because expending 16m everyday was gonna left me broke in probably 2 more months, and I'm still not +12.

    But, I was wondering how much it would take to get a full deck of S cards. So it's really a lot of money. How much would it be for just full deck of S, but level 1 cards though?

    full S+full position=13.7S+1free=328.8days=7693.9m Imho 7.6B is way, WAY out of my budget... and that's the cheapest full set S card + correct position

    I guess I got lucky because I got 3 S cards, with about 200 gold (or not lucky really?).

    Just keep in mind that getting 3 S cards is not that hard, the problems comes on getting 6 different card (the more you have, the hardest to get a worth S card for your needs.
    After using aster simulator a bit I just decided to open all the C-A chests I can (too bad those are untradable afaik) and pray to get some Set bonus on those... with some luck I may get a couple S cards + 4 A cards set or not... without ending completly broke xD

    It's all about doing daily Flowsilver and getting those C-A packs, can take a while... but seems reasonable to get at least less nerf against hardcore cash-shoppers
  • Deceptistar - Sanctuary
    Deceptistar - Sanctuary Posts: 10,454 Arc User
    edited January 2014

    I guess I got lucky because I got 3 S cards, with about 200 gold (or not lucky really?).
    i got like 3 A cards and the rest B-C with the same amount f:bike
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  • attackerv
    attackerv Posts: 295 Arc User
    edited January 2014
    As I shown,

    the "last one" is hardest.

    the "last position" is 1/6. mean u need 6 more A or S to finalize them averagely.

    the "last card" for any S-set is 1/52, mean u need 52 more S to finalize them averagely


    But if u have several sets need "last one", u could be better. b:pleased

    e.g. i have 3 set (two 2-piece sets and 3-piece set) need "last one".

    so my chance is 3/52, mean i need 17.3 more S to get one set

    the thing could be better in fact, cuz when i get more S, i may get more possible sets. averagly, should be less 17.3 cards.
    Main Chars in tidewell:
    Attacker_V: archer
    Seraphim_V: Veno
    xNightshadowx: db
  • attackerv
    attackerv Posts: 295 Arc User
    edited January 2014
    BTW, one important thing must be kept in mind.

    the S can't be devoured in pwcn. I don't test in pwi, but i guess the same.

    They said the S devoured will be unlocked but somehow they delay the unlock.

    We don't know when or if the S card decoured can be unlocked.


    that is mean when u feed ur S card, ur risking


    because u may get a set in future but the same position with ur feeding S card.

    that some kind like u give ur orb to refine a untradable and unstash T3 gear. When u go R9, all ur refine on ur T3 gear is wasted b:shocked
    Main Chars in tidewell:
    Attacker_V: archer
    Seraphim_V: Veno
    xNightshadowx: db
  • HuYoDD - Harshlands
    HuYoDD - Harshlands Posts: 6 Arc User
    edited January 2014
    Hello,

    I'd like to ask:

    1. How high the chance is to get full Nuema set in the 1st week the avatar cards came out in %.
    2. Would it be even possible, timewise, to get the full Nuema set in one or maybe two week(s).

    Thx y'all.
  • Desdi - Sanctuary
    Desdi - Sanctuary Posts: 8,680 Arc User
    edited January 2014
    I'll add my comment too since other people did.

    On the second day (or so) of the expansion I bought one C-S pack from the boutique and I got an S card, a pretty good one too but it belongs to a small set (I got Tsu from the Tsu-Tsuan set).

    I've opened several B-S packs with Flowsilver coins, sadly I don't remember the amount, and I got all B cards. Due to how expensive it is, I stopped getting those, especially since the way you need to level up your leadership gets more and more expensive.

    The rest of the coins I've used on the C-A packs and I have 6 A cards in total. Two of them are duplicates (I have Puppeteer x2) and two of them are part of the Warsong set, however seeing as I need a particular S card for that I don't keep my hopes up. I'll probably try to aim for the EU set and take advantage of smaller sets in-between if I get any.

    I still have about 120 coins I haven't used yet.
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  • attackerv
    attackerv Posts: 295 Arc User
    edited January 2014
    Hello,

    I'd like to ask:

    1. How high the chance is to get full Nuema set in the 1st week the avatar cards came out in %.
    2. Would it be even possible, timewise, to get the full Nuema set in one or maybe two week(s).

    Thx y'all.


    in pwcn, just 2nd day of expansion release, the full Nuema set showed up.

    all u need is buying enough packs and put the packs on hot key, and press it.

    So if CS, just one night enough. b:bye
    Main Chars in tidewell:
    Attacker_V: archer
    Seraphim_V: Veno
    xNightshadowx: db
  • Deceptistar - Sanctuary
    Deceptistar - Sanctuary Posts: 10,454 Arc User
    edited January 2014
    http://i.imgur.com/t1Te8kr.jpg

    i would be so happy...
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]lagunal8.deviantart.com
    ★"New weekly quests! "Discover the bug in the patch""-Nihillae★"My father would beat me if he found out I was QQing over a virtual pony."-Neurosis★"You're amongst the biggest blobs of fail I've ever seen in my life."-Ninnuam★"A statistic said 3% people of the world get enjoyment primarily from making people upset, and you are trying to discriminate them"-ilystah★["How To Tank Rebirth Order Delta (86+)"-Stickygreen Barb (1)restat. you want full magic, Arcane armour build (2)when mobs come /faceroll on your keyboard and you will one shot all the mobs (3)rinse and repeat]★"I've been spammed with 3 poops for 2 hours."-ColdSteele★"If someone fights learning, I don't bother with them outside of amusement factor."-Telarith★"This thread is a joke right? Please say yes."-eatwithspoons★ "This is why you don't post your opinions on the internet, most of the replies you get will be from people who missed a hug or two sometime in their youth."-Alacol★"Sexy! A post with a Binomial Distribution."-Asterelle★"It's about time PW starts to separate out the noob Sins from the rest."-salvati0n★"Shoo troll >:O"-TheDan
  • Desdi - Sanctuary
    Desdi - Sanctuary Posts: 8,680 Arc User
    edited January 2014
    http://i.imgur.com/t1Te8kr.jpg

    i would be so happy...

    I have 4 Soulprimes, one S three As...like..wouldn't mind if it was just Bs... QQ
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  • Eternalagony - Harshlands
    Eternalagony - Harshlands Posts: 13 Arc User
    edited January 2014
  • HuYoDD - Harshlands
    HuYoDD - Harshlands Posts: 6 Arc User
    edited January 2014
    Hello attackerv,

    I am a bit surprised to read what you wrote, simply because you have only 120 slots available for cards. Now i don't have 120 cards yet so I'm wondering, considering what you wrote about opening over night, if the opening wouldn't stop at the 121st pack or card or at least after inventory is full?!

    Thx


    attackerv wrote: »
    in pwcn, just 2nd day of expansion release, the full Nuema set showed up.

    all u need is buying enough packs and put the packs on hot key, and press it.

    So if CS, just one night enough. b:bye
  • attackerv
    attackerv Posts: 295 Arc User
    edited January 2014
    Hello attackerv,

    I am a bit surprised to read what you wrote, simply because you have only 120 slots available for cards. Now i don't have 120 cards yet so I'm wondering, considering what you wrote about opening over night, if the opening wouldn't stop at the 121st pack or card or at least after inventory is full?!

    Thx

    u can transfer S card to something, that can be stacked (sry, Idk how to translate, but i know it works in pwcn, pwi should be the same).

    so u don't need to worry the inventory isssue at that point.

    pwcn/pwi won't make any issue to stop ppl donate money to them. b:chuckle
    Main Chars in tidewell:
    Attacker_V: archer
    Seraphim_V: Veno
    xNightshadowx: db
  • bitewarrior
    bitewarrior Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited January 2014
    I am confused with the S card not been able to be devoured, because i saw on database it can be made into war avatar artifact that is somehow used to make S+ cards. I just don't quite know how this is done thought, there is not too much info but what i just said.

    P.S Eternelagony the OP asked about your luck in getting them from opening pack and not from opening mail box from GM.
  • MissCherie - Harshlands
    MissCherie - Harshlands Posts: 468 Arc User
    edited January 2014
    From 40 golds (so 10 box) and 10 FPS I got 7 different A cards and 6 are for different spots, so I get a card in each spot +1 over A card.

    I got really lucky.
  • attackerv
    attackerv Posts: 295 Arc User
    edited January 2014
    I am confused with the S card not been able to be devoured, because i saw on database it can be made into war avatar artifact that is somehow used to make S+ cards. I just don't quite know how this is done thought, there is not too much info but what i just said.

    P.S Eternelagony the OP asked about your luck in getting them from opening pack and not from opening mail box from GM.

    Yes, thx translate " war avatar artifact " for me. If ur inv full of S, u can transfer S to war avatar artifact.

    But we don't know what use of this thing, even in pwcn. S+ is still a secret.

    I think pwcn needs fix the broken Nuema portal set (2nd awaken) firstly. The new endgame has one-shot old endgame, that is totally broken. Their endgame cards cost is similar the old-endgame cost. Many old endgame players can reach new endgame.

    PWI just let that set become very expansive and few ppl reach there. Therefore, here No QQ for that set, unlike pwcn. If the end-game cards price just simiar to R9RR+12+josd cost, like pwcn, current pwi will be a total difference. b:surrender
    Main Chars in tidewell:
    Attacker_V: archer
    Seraphim_V: Veno
    xNightshadowx: db
  • Azura - Lost City
    Azura - Lost City Posts: 2,281 Arc User
    edited January 2014
    Just keep in mind that getting 3 S cards is not that hard, the problems comes on getting 6 different card (the more you have, the hardest to get a worth S card for your needs.
    After using aster simulator a bit I just decided to open all the C-A chests I can (too bad those are untradable afaik) and pray to get some Set bonus on those... with some luck I may get a couple S cards + 4 A cards set or not... without ending completly broke xD

    It's all about doing daily Flowsilver and getting those C-A packs, can take a while... but seems reasonable to get at least less nerf against hardcore cash-shoppers
    That's way out of my wallet. I will probably never have a full deck of S cards, so I'll just stick to A pack from now on, which only costs 20 fs coins.


    Gratz on the set given away by the GM's. You should be more humble about it though.
  • Salari - Raging Tide
    Salari - Raging Tide Posts: 2,102 Arc User
    edited January 2014
    Some people dont like these cards but I do, very easy way to increase stats / resistances and hp with almost no cost at all(once reborn). I think another thing people don't pay attention to is neuma. Its a great way for people to gain some more stats. Every bit helps, but I do think the S cards are just to much, they should have stopped at A
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