Dragon Orb Money Making?

bluesmist
bluesmist Posts: 0 Arc User
edited October 2013 in General Discussion
So I have been curious for a long time, I see all these people selling dragon orbs, so I did a little math to see how much do these ppl make. the gold price in archo is at 1.93mil per gold, and the result I got either by opening Dragon Fire Pack or buying the orbs on sale are around 150k - 200k, and people are selling at 115K. I mean they got to be making money or else why would they be selling it, my question is is there a cheaper way to get orbs or I'm doing something wrong?b:lipcurl
Post edited by bluesmist on

Comments

  • DemansPsy - Lost City
    DemansPsy - Lost City Posts: 359 Arc User
    edited October 2013
    gold is at 1.93mil and your getting 150-200k for your result? That shouldn't be right, should barely break 120k per orb buying DF packs at that gold price, and that's IF you exclude chance of getting a 12* orb. I get an average of 2.55 orbs per DF pack excluding 12* (mostly because i cant divide it into number of 1*s used to make it since it's real price doesn't reflect that) so I'm underestimating profit from the DF pack at that amount, and that would put orbs at 119.2k @ 1.93mil gold and that's OVERPRICING them.
    full 3r9 +11/12 (still using immac shards though) w/o CSing, leveled to 105 spaming pv, yes i have no life =D
  • WannaBM - Archosaur
    WannaBM - Archosaur Posts: 1,984 Arc User
    edited October 2013
    Dragon fire pack 15.75 silver is about 300k coins. (Slightly more with the gold price you posted i guess, but the gold price varies a bit from time to time and buying gold at the best moment is part of these merchant's job description)

    Dragon Orb (1 Star) - 2 (92%)
    Dragon Orb (2 Star) (5.75%)
    Dragon Orb (3 Star) (1.24%)
    Dragon Orb (4 Star) (0.7%)
    Dragon Orb (5 Star) (0.3%)
    Dragon Orb Flame (0.01%)

    converting that to 1* and multiplying by chance:

    Dragon Orb (1 Star) - 2 (92%)
    > 1.84
    Dragon Orb (1 Star) - 4(5.75%)
    >0.23
    Dragon Orb (1 Star) - 10(1.24%)---->0.124
    Dragon Orb (1 Star) - 25 (0.7%)
    >0.175
    Dragon Orb (1 Star) - 60 (0.3%)
    >0.18

    Totals for 2.55 1* orbs average.

    Dragon Orb Flame (0.01%)

    The value of Dorb flame is about 250m, at a 1 in 10k chance, that is worth 25k coins.

    So the cost of a 1* from packs would be 300k - 25k = 275k / 2.55 = 108k

    So margins for the sellers are very small indeed.
    While the is a positive margin for opening the packs and selling the orbs, there is an important luckfactor involved for those opening the packs.

    For some like me that is a reason to stay away from it. I have a gambling/poker background and i like making money on chances. However i want a better variance/profit ratio. Most people on the other hand like a bit of gambling so this way they can gamble cheaply and if you do like gambling, it is surely a smart way to gamble since it does give a positive expectation.
    Everything i write is from PvE perspective unless mentioned otherwise.
  • ToyMaker_NOT - Raging Tide
    ToyMaker_NOT - Raging Tide Posts: 397 Arc User
    edited October 2013
    I've been dealing in D. Orbs on Raging Tide for 2 years now; and, I will tell you exactly how people are making a profit. First you need to be a "smart" merchant.

    The smart merchant NEVER BUYS PACKS OR ORBS FROM THE BOUTIQUE WHEN THEY GO ON SALE.

    The smart merchant knows there is a **** load of +1 D. Orbs on the server.

    The smart merchant knows there are plenty of impatient players out there that need instant gratification when refining their gears.

    The smart merchant knows there are plenty of fail merchants who only remember warrenwolfy's comment that a product unsold at the end of a boutique sale makes no profit.

    The smart merchant takes all this information into consideration and, in the case of dragon orbs, concludes the following:

    1) The instant gratification refiner who is hoping to win the lottery by getting a +12 orb will unload their +1 orbs to buy more packs at a change for a +12 orb.
    Smart merchant's response - lowball the buy price for +1 orbs.

    2) The fail merchants fall into two categories: (A) The merchants that really don't have a clue. (B) The merchants who are impatient for their projected profits.

    (A) The merchants that really don't have a clue few and far between or they fake it well. In any case, these are the ones that just give up and are looking to recover something back.
    Smart merchant's response - lowball the buy price for +1 orbs.

    (B) The merchants that are impatient for their projected profits are pretty abundant. They are the one that at the end of a sale will dump their inventory so they have coin/gold for the next big sale.
    Smart merchant's response - lowball the buy price for +1 orbs.

    3) The player that hordes D. Orbs from previous sales and now looking to free up inventory because orbs are so cheap. Almost non-existent these days because of all Orb sales PWI has been doing. However, if they are still out there...
    Smart merchant's response - lowball the buy price for +1 orbs.

    See the reoccurring theme.

    Before all the cats shops jumped on this bandwagon I was trading over 100 million in dragon orbs every week. I would buy +1 D. Orbs between 85k to 100k, combine, then resell higher grade orbs at 125k - 155k (times the number of +1 orbs to make), over 50% profit and my prices were still under cutting the other cat shops by 10k+.

    However, with the abundance of free coin causing the inflation in gold prices the profits are very thin. But if you make and stick to a plan there is a profit to be made. I just think it's not going to be a 50% profit.
  • RankNine - Momaganon
    RankNine - Momaganon Posts: 1,241 Arc User
    edited October 2013
    ToyMaker_NOT - Raging Tide wrote: »
    I've been dealing in D. Orbs on Raging Tide for 2 years now; and, I will tell you exactly how people are making a profit. First you need to be a "smart" merchant.

    The smart merchant NEVER BUYS PACKS OR ORBS FROM THE BOUTIQUE WHEN THEY GO ON SALE.

    The smart merchant knows there is a **** load of +1 D. Orbs on the server.

    The smart merchant knows there are plenty of impatient players out there that need instant gratification when refining their gears.

    The smart merchant knows there are plenty of fail merchants who only remember warrenwolfy's comment that a product unsold at the end of a boutique sale makes no profit.

    The smart merchant takes all this information into consideration and, in the case of dragon orbs, concludes the following:

    1) The instant gratification refiner who is hoping to win the lottery by getting a +12 orb will unload their +1 orbs to buy more packs at a change for a +12 orb.
    Smart merchant's response - lowball the buy price for +1 orbs.

    2) The fail merchants fall into two categories: (A) The merchants that really don't have a clue. (B) The merchants who are impatient for their projected profits.

    (A) The merchants that really don't have a clue few and far between or they fake it well. In any case, these are the ones that just give up and are looking to recover something back.
    Smart merchant's response - lowball the buy price for +1 orbs.

    (B) The merchants that are impatient for their projected profits are pretty abundant. They are the one that at the end of a sale will dump their inventory so they have coin/gold for the next big sale.
    Smart merchant's response - lowball the buy price for +1 orbs.

    3) The player that hordes D. Orbs from previous sales and now looking to free up inventory because orbs are so cheap. Almost non-existent these days because of all Orb sales PWI has been doing. However, if they are still out there...
    Smart merchant's response - lowball the buy price for +1 orbs.

    See the reoccurring theme.

    Before all the cats shops jumped on this bandwagon I was trading over 100 million in dragon orbs every week. I would buy +1 D. Orbs between 85k to 100k, combine, then resell higher grade orbs at 125k - 155k (times the number of +1 orbs to make), over 50% profit and my prices were still under cutting the other cat shops by 10k+.

    However, with the abundance of free coin causing the inflation in gold prices the profits are very thin. But if you make and stick to a plan there is a profit to be made. I just think it's going to be a 50% profit.

    you buy somthing low and sell it high? you are so much smarter than everyone else b:victory
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    noob, can only run, spawnkiller, only white vodoo, only plays for kd,
    never kills anyone, only gear, no skill, no life, cash only, eats dogfood to cash more, lives at moms,
    only survives cause of cleric heals, if we had your gear you would lose. b:cryb:cryb:cry
  • Jake_english - Lost City
    Jake_english - Lost City Posts: 36 Arc User
    edited October 2013
    RankNine - Momaganon wrote: »
    you buy somthing low and sell it high? you are so much smarter than everyone else b:victory

    Holy shiet the dude is a genius.

    Clearly, an award from the president is in its way now :O

    b:chuckle

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