Next X2 please let it be the REAL x2

AdiLynnRose - Raging Tide · October 2013

People have bad days farming it's that simple and if you say you've never had any, well that's good. Point is some people just have **** luck and want to complain about it, being TT, refining or what ever the item is.

For the most part the OP either only remember the bad or is exaggerating how many runs they do or PWI just doesn't like them.

WannaBM - Archosaur wrote: »

If people are posting all kind of non-sense about 2x not being 2x, drop tables not being correct, i will tell them to get a clue.

Which is what this thread is, and I agree with you

HideYoHubby - Archosaur · October 2013

Is it just me or does anybody else find it amusing how the guy who thinks he knows everything is actually kinda off on a lot of things he says?

Lets clarify, adding more stuff on drop table decreases the odds of other drops. No, nobody farms enough alone to be statistically significant during 1 month of 2x. Even assuming 20 runs a day we get to 600 runs, which is decent but still not enough to consider it "averages itself out". I really am no expert on statistics but I have talked to people who have made their own simulators based on data samples and they prefered ~10k data samples before making averages out of them and were still kinda meh bout it.

Ps. One thing I am interested though is whoever brought up most golds are on additional drop table thats not affected by 2x, where is the source on that? Database only shows default drops on everything in 3-3 and 3-1 beast, no additional drop table.

WannaBM - Archosaur · October 2013

Depends on what you call even out. If you do 600 runs where you would expect to get 120 gold mats out of a boss, for this matter i think it is ok enough if your 95% interval will be between 100 and 140. So yes, imo, 1 month of farming is easilly enough. If however you the result to be between 118 and 122, then your sample size is too small yes. It all depends on what amount of certainty you want. a 10k boss kill sample will give you a pretty precise number, not "kinda meh". And 600 runs (wich is 1000s of boss kills, which is 10.000s of drops) will give a sufficiently evened out number that anyone should be able to look back on his month of farming and be reasonably satisfied.

Adding stuff to a droptable is at the cost of the stuff you decide to take out or reduce from the table. The total is 100%. So if that is for example 1% gold mat* and 99% non gold mat it does not matter how much you add to that list and how you split up that 99% over the other items. As long as the gold mat is still 1%, nothing is changed. And it was said that this droprate hasnt changed.

*and then 10 drops out of a boss to make almost 10% chance to drop the gold mat.

As you see, with this aditional drop table comment, people keep claiming things that are totally untrue and based on nothing. You can point them to it, you can provide proper argumentation, but it doesnt help. All you get is different **** and a counter attack just like you are doing right now. So ye, i get too impatient with them and i will come off like mr know it all. However, always feel free to point me out where i am off on "a lot of things'".

Fact is, it is very hard to have any reasonable discussion on this forum. As i said before, i have been making a living of poker for years. Believe me, on the more serious poker forums i never ran into these problems, discussions there are on a totally different level. Also in games that draw a more mature audience like civ3 did i encounter a totally different situation on the forums. And that is also part of where my arrogance comes from: achievements in life. Making a living in poker is something only few will ever be able to do. So sorry, i know im intelligent and im not going to hide it because the baby forum cant handle it when i know better.
Maybe i should try to practice and get my points across in a more pretty and modest manner. If i can learn to do that here, i guess im ready to beat politics......

SylenThunder - Twilight Temple · October 2013

WannaBM - Archosaur wrote: »

SylenThunder - Sanctuary wrote: »

And on top of that, most of the gold mats are in the Additional Drop table, which is not affected by the 2X multiplier.

For which bosses is that true ? Not for any of those we kill.

Maybe not the ones you, specifically, are farming; but a lot of the rarer gold mats and other things that people farm on 2x are.

For you, it's just bad luck. Sometimes you roll 12 die and get all 2's instead of 6's.

JanusZeal - Heavens Tear · October 2013

WannaBM - Archosaur wrote: »

What i am trying to explain is that people should see reality for what it is and stop creating all kind of theories. Drop rates are what they are, there is nothing nerfed about them. Not by adding other items or whatever.

Sorry, your last sentence again shows that you do not understand. Other items being added does not matter unless they come at the cost of the gold mats dropping chance. You say yourself that these rates have not been changed.

Now it becomes a little unclear what you actually are trying to say. Each time i prove some statement wrong, i get a counter attack on a different field and another thing to prove wrong while the first statement is being ignored. Is it that hard to actually reply to what i say ? Let me repeat what i have been trying to say in this thread and then please tell me where you disagree and where i would be ignoring any facts. Just go back to post 25 and see where this is coming from. I claim a statement of yours to be untrue and bring arguments/proof. You ignore that and say that people have different views of it even though it is factual reality. I explain about this factual reality and again you ignore that and instead start babbling well about nothing really. The post looks more like you just wanted to state that you know because you farm 4 years but nothing substantial besides that.

My points:

-Drop tables can be found on internet. My experiences show that they are correct and my sample size is large enough to be statistically relevant. The few players that i have seen post seriously and knowlegably on this topic report the same. I make this point to combat claims about drop rates not being what it should be as the thread title indicates.

-Given enough farming runs, luck is an insignificant factor. I explain this in the first place to show those that complain about luck in their x runs today that they need to do more runs and in the second place to explain that those who claim they have been exceptionally unlucky over a month of full time farming or incorrect in this claim. Statistics can tell you exactly what chances are. If someone would be making a thread saying "I have farmed this boss X times and got only Y drops. Statistics say chances of this happening are 0.482% I am so unlucky !!!!" I will tell them i feel sorry for them. If people are posting all kind of non-sense about 2x not being 2x, drop tables not being correct, i will tell them to get a clue.

-There is no place for different perspectives in this matter. It is a matter of math. Math that has been proven centuries ago.

-People have all kind of psychological traits that make them perceive luck different than it is. You may have farmed TT 4 years, i have made a living playing poker for more than 4 years. I know what chances do in peoples minds. I am trying to help people be more objective.

I agree completely, but discussion is moot because people stubbornly have an expected drop rate which transcends the notion of math and veers off into irrationality about expected static things from random events.

Hence why I have no interest in opening packs or going to Vegas to gamble.

ToyMaker_NOT - Raging Tide · October 2013

After reading this wall of text, seems like the same the argument form the OP, Wanna, Adi is being made from different perspectives.

Yes, the drop rate percentage does not change during x2; and, as has been posted, x2 means the drop-rate routine is ran twice. However, and I think this is the point Adi and the OP were making, is that because the drop-rate routine is ran twice your percentage does improve that one gold mat should at least drop.

Let's take the Ops original gold mat drop. The PWI database indicates there is a 8.33% chance of drake dropping one gold mat; therefore, on x2, the drop-rate is ran twice increasing the chance of getting one gold mat to 16.66%.

The question becomes did the OP, seeing 1 gold mat drop expect 2? Well the percentage of getting 2 gold mats to drop becomes much worse. Where before you would multiply the drop-rate percentage by the number of attempts (in this case x2), looking to get 2 gold mats to drop you would have to multiply each individual drop-rate percentage together (8.33%)^2 = 0.69% of two gold mats dropping from the boss.

Maybe this make it a bit clear maybe not. But if these complaints are based on a small sample, say under 50 boss runs, then luck does play a small roll. But as Wanna posted, on a larger sample (100, 500, 1000 boss runs) the math/percentages will prevail.

NottLie - Dreamweaver · October 2013

Thats why i dont lose my time farming tt...i only sell subs for the ppl who do that haha

Vinat - Sanctuary · October 2013

I've seen a screenshot of Illusion lord having dropped 5 Illusion Stones at one time.

If I can find it I'll post it.

WannaBM - Archosaur · October 2013

Vinat - Sanctuary wrote: »

I've seen a screenshot of Illusion lord having dropped 5 Illusion Stones at one time.

If I can find it I'll post it.

O.o that is one of those situations where you wish all that luck had manifested itself somewhere more usefull

Chances are probably on the same order as for winning a lotery

Myriette - Sanctuary · October 2013

My friends and I take turns subbing, once one of us does a single run with no gold drops we switch to the next person. Anyways, over the last couple days I subbed like 10 runs "in a row" (yeah I got stuck with subbing across multiple TT sessions ._.) with gold mat or red mat drops. One run was a perfect run. Multiple runs had at least one boss drop multiple gold - best was Arma dropping 3 gold, even though 2 were Illusion Lord Stones =<

So.. definitely isn't the 2x being "fake." Just bad luck =\ If you go so many runs with no drop, take a break and come back later? Our perfect run happened right after a 1 hour break xD

Ursa - Dreamweaver · October 2013

Lolitta - Raging Tide wrote: »

I always do Squad mode and I dont wanna buy stuff, I want to farm it. Not ring 95 lvl, i meant the ring you do from Drake Fling mats. In TT i try for weeks to get gold to make Heavy T3 helm but I dont wanna buy it because I can solo all TT's and that is why I have R9 sin, to farm. You dont expect me to stay in the city and buy all mats and golds when i can farm myself ! I can farm all day long but I need to see I get something in return and even if I want to buy I dont have how to make coins cuz there are not much things to farm left anyways.
How can you make money when the drop is so so low? And I farm like a crazy woman to buy my R9 daggers and make them +12 without 1 gold put in game but back then the mats were selling and now people buy at half price or not at all.
I just wanted to find out why there is such a bad drop in this game, dont matter if i farm 100h or 1 h , that is not the topic subject, is why is such a low drop that you have to run 12 TT's to get 1 gold?
I expected from people to say "Wow you are right, you work so hard and no drop how lame" but I see people think i am an idiot to be a farmer not a CS because they dont complain about anything cuz they have all they need in Boutique.

Farming just what you need is not smart.
I can also farm TT3-2 on my sin and I can duo 3-3 but I rarely did it this 2x. Why? because I consider my time very important so I don't like to waste it. That logic I applied to whatever I farm, starting with TT. 3-2 is a common TT people farm, and in average you can get about 5-7m/hour out of it, right? Well, I can tell you right now there are at least 2 other TTs that yield the same amount if not better, which are a lot simpler and faster to run.
I've made a lot of G16 gear to sell this 2x, and none of the gold mats I used to make it was from my farm. I sold a lot of gold/green/gear from my farm and I have a stock of mats that will last me at least until the 2x in December.
I play at most 2h/day, a bit more in week-ends but never more than 4 and I made at least 150 mil/week during this 2x. And I do BH and warsong runs and a lot of other stuff, not 100% TT farm when I'm in game.
You're saying you cannot make money any more in game, well, if I can make those amounts with a few hours a day of play you with unlimited time should make at least 10x that. I'm just a +10 G16 5 aps sin with 10k HP so really very far from the top of the food chain when it comes to farm.

Farm smarter not harder.

Next X2 please let it be the REAL x2

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