GM what the hell did you do with refines?

The Refine Rates ABSOLUTELY changed around the end of the summer of 2012. I used to be able to mirage refine +4 and tienkang +5 fairly easily with a few unlucky streaks, but I used to be able to be back and forth on my luck constantly. Since around the end of the summer of 2012 however, PWI's Refine Rates have absolutely been nerfed to b:fatb Its called GREED. Because the cost of a single piece of gear to +12 didnt already equal the cost of any 3+ year subscriptions to most other mmo's, PWE just had to get greedier. b:angry

Apostasy - Raging Tide wrote: »

The Refine Rates ABSOLUTELY changed around the end of the summer of 2012. I used to be able to mirage refine +4 and tienkang +5 fairly easily with a few unlucky streaks, but I used to be able to be back and forth on my luck constantly. Since around the end of the summer of 2012 however, PWI's Refine Rates have absolutely been nerfed to b:fatb Its called GREED. Because the cost of a single piece of gear to +12 didnt already equal the cost of any 3+ year subscriptions to most other mmo's, PWE just had to get greedier. b:angry

As much as I would complain about PWE's actions in general, you have to examine the facts to be sure what you're criticizing is actually at fault.

Breaking it down simply... there are really only two possibilities here.
1. PWE took the time to network with Wanmei to change refining rates in order to quietly implement a new cash-grab scheme when they had all kinds of other cash-grabbing measures readily available... including one they actually did implement regarding refining, namely making S3 gears cost 10/5 mirages per refine attempt.
2. You just have bad luck.

It's pretty basic logic here. But then, if you don't happen to subscribe to basic logic, I'm sure Sylen can provide you with all the hard data you could possibly require to prove that nothing has changed with the refining rates.

Miugre - Heavens Tear wrote: »

...
It's pretty basic logic here. But then, if you don't happen to subscribe to basic logic, I'm sure Sylen can provide you with all the hard data you could possibly require to prove that nothing has changed with the refining rates.

Even then they have a tendency to ignore what I say completely, even with hard verifiable facts backing me up. Basically if it doesn't fit into their QQVision, they don't see it. b:chuckle

We say this just recently in the TT thread where I posted definitive proof and it got almost completely ignored.

An extremely low % chance is, regardless, still a chance.

The other day I attempted to refine my archer's S3 cape. After 1300 mirages I had not achieved +4 even once. I passed it over to a friend of mine that wanted to try and he got +5 within 20 mirages.

Is it aggravating? Yes. Is it different from how it was in the past? No.

I could also come here and join the bandwagon because my recent attempt at refining my AA pants resulted in +3 with a loss of over 1200 mirages, but I know it was just bad luck. I have easily +6ed my other gear pieces, and have +6ed several S3 weapons now with less than 500 mirages.

It really does seem to be a case of if you are having a bad streak, quit and try another day. I am bad at not wanting to quit and thus end up sometimes losing far more mirages than I probably would have had I just taken a break from it.

These "TT nerf" and "refine nerf" threads are getting really irritating. Just because you have bad luck does not mean it is nerfed; you can't just go on what you experience. Look at how many people reply that it works just fine for them, after all. I'm sure if we did an actual test with a large sample size, the results would show it to be normal.

Tetream - Lost City wrote: »

Referring to pwi wiki, chance to get from 0 to +1 with mirages only is 50%.
Chance to get 38x in a row NOT +1 is:
0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5*0.5=
=0.000000000003638
=0.0000000003638%

= It should not have happened. Chance to manufacture an oht necki with -18 channeling is ~28000 times higher. And this didn't happen yet.
I'm not talking about predictions, I'm talking about probabilities. When someone wins the jackpots of all lotteries of all nations all over the world, 100 times in a row, there is something wrong. This would not have something to do with randomnes anymore. He would be either a scammer or he has a time machine.

on the other hand, we have 3x -6% wrists. and according to pwd that's even rarer than a 3x oht neck. so based on your logic, it didn't happen. and yet it happened. cheers?

PotatoHeadQR - Dreamweaver wrote: »

on the other hand, we have 3x -6% wrists. and according to pwd that's even rarer than a 3x oht neck. so based on your logic, it didn't happen. and yet it happened. cheers?

When you got many of those wrists on you sever then it's as I told you: there is something wrong with the randomness in this game. But chance to get those is even not that bad as my "bad luck":
Chance to get 3x -6% is 1 to 56.895.767. Let's say every character on your server does manufacture 300 aa wrists per year (tbh I believe most go for la or ha wirsts for int). And let's say on your server are 2000 active characters. Then it should take 95 years on average to get those wrists. Cheers.

Boartracker - Raging Tide wrote: »

I use orbs as just mirage refining has gotten progressively worse over the past year. I spend real cash and am a customer. Please, note how PWI has answered, joined in et al to make me feel better about my spending on refining. Let's call it Great Customer Service.

Maybe it's just me; but, as a customer, I don't feel like I have to prove anything to PWI to get some sort of answer. If I buy a car from Pan Gu Motors, I shouldn't have to prove anything to anyone to get a rattle fixed.

b:bye

In the face of actual evidence to the contrary, yes you do.

This discussion has been done to death, just like the one on TT mats. The actual game files have been examined and a definitive answer has been presented. Those presenters, by the way, are unaffiliated with PWE and would actually be more than happy to heap criticism on them for this, were it actually true.

You're entitled to the same customer service as anyone else (and no more; sorry), but you are not entitled to your own facts.

This is really an open-and-shut issue by now. The only reason it still gets screen time in these forums is because we get a new thread on it every time someone among this game's thousands of players has horrible refining luck one night, and jumps to the conclusion of company greed, in blissful ignorance (or in some cases, open defiance) of the facts.

If you want to blame PWE/Wanmei for greedy design, blame the refining system in general (which in some ways does reinforce a pay to win concept)... not a perceived drop in success rates which has already been disproven.

Fissile - Archosaur wrote: »

No one has asserted any credible argument regarding the true refine rates in this thread or any I have seen on the topic. The fact of the matter is the true mechanics of refining are hidden from the user. The refining guides posted here and in the wiki are essentially rough estimates provided with no factual basis.

Given a reasonable amount of data, one could conceivable perform a rigorous statistical analysis of refining and draw real conclusions based on observations.

If all these people intent on spending thousands of celestones refining a single item had the wherewithal to record a video of the attempts, maybe we could support some of the arguments people have been making. However, in the absence of supporting evidence, all arguments are equally invalid. And no, a claim does not constitute evidence without an actual record of what exactly happened.

Since the topic seems to be of great interest to many, I am going to start a thread with the purpose of statistically describing the actual refining process once and for all.

And where do you intend to pull your data from? Do you think you can put together an accurate sample size from just your own personal refining successes/failures? Or even with community input? Here's a hint: Less than 10% of the player base actually visits these forums, and of those, the only ones who'd bother to post in such a thread are gonna be the same ones whining about refine rates in this thread. You're gonna have a hard time shooting for "rigorous statistical analysis" if you can't even get a large, unbiased sample size.

You want evidence? We have the actual game files which show no difference between the rates of today and the rates of 4+ years ago. Sylen even named the individual file. What more do you want?? Should we have him post a screenshot of the comparison between the two? Would you even believe him if he did?