Arcanic Muse Boots reroll

BrightPurple - Dreamweaver
BrightPurple - Dreamweaver Posts: 15 Arc User
edited July 2012 in Support Desk
Is this thing bugged? I've rerolled it almost 20 times and it never comes up 4 sockets.
Post edited by BrightPurple - Dreamweaver on

Comments

  • BrightPurple - Dreamweaver
    BrightPurple - Dreamweaver Posts: 15 Arc User
    edited July 2012
    Just did 4 reforms in a row, bringing the total to 30 reforms. Still no 4 sockets. There's something seriously wrong with this thing.
  • SylenThunder - Twilight Temple
    SylenThunder - Twilight Temple Posts: 7,908
    edited July 2012
    Craft Rate with 3 socket(s): 90%
    Craft Rate with 4 socket(s): 10%

    Every time you try, it's like rolling a 10-sided die. You will only get 4 sockets if you roll a 10.
    You're just not having good luck rolling a 10.
    It's random.
    Just like gambling in Vegas.
    Sometimes you win.
    Sometimes you lose.
    a lot
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • shopitup
    shopitup Posts: 178 Arc User
    edited July 2012
    BrightPurple - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    Just did 4 reforms in a row, bringing the total to 30 reforms. Still no 4 sockets. There's something seriously wrong with this thing.

    Now, I might have my probability wrong --- it's even, heh, probable I do --- but:

    1-(0.9^30) ~= 0.958

    Or, you seem to stand a roughly 4.2% chance of rerolling 30 times and never getting four sockets. That's really not a very low probability; not low enough to call anything seriously wrong. Unless there's something seriously wrong with my math, which there may be.
  • NecroTwist - Sanctuary
    NecroTwist - Sanctuary Posts: 54 Arc User
    edited July 2012
    unfortunately you cant take all thirty rolls into account in figuring the games probability. sure it may seem like that, but its not. each roll is seperate and only has 10% chance of getting 4 socket.

    you could then, theoretically, roll for the rest of your life and never get four sockets. the probability that the game uses is based on a once per equation chance. now if it worked that you could roll 30 at once with fluctuating probabilities based on finished rolls than yeah that would work.

    but i have a feeling the world would just stop spinning if they added that.
    I tried to add a signature here thats not even as big as some. but it kept resizing to make it illegible, so **** it
  • BrightPurple - Dreamweaver
    BrightPurple - Dreamweaver Posts: 15 Arc User
    edited July 2012
    Just did 6 in one go. Nothing. Upto to 36 reforms now.
  • SylenThunder - Twilight Temple
    SylenThunder - Twilight Temple Posts: 7,908
    edited July 2012
    BrightPurple - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    Just did 6 in one go. Nothing. Upto to 36 reforms now.
    You're apparently not getting it.
    SylenThunder - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Craft Rate with 3 socket(s): 90%
    Craft Rate with 4 socket(s): 10%

    Every time you try, it's like rolling a 10-sided die. You will only get 4 sockets if you roll a 10.
    You're just not having good luck rolling a 10.
    It's random.
    Just like gambling in Vegas.
    Sometimes you win.
    Sometimes you lose.
    a lot
    NecroTwist - Sanctuary wrote: »
    ... each roll is seperate and only has 10% chance of getting 4 socket.....
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

Categories