Aurora NPC has no use?

Asukari - Raging Tide · May 2012

Time to get serious and mathematical on you. Don't mind my spelling/misscalculations or different facts/stories whatever..

This is what I have been discussing with a friend of mine.

Basically, the new NPC has a 10 attempt limit per DAY and per ACCOUNT. You use 20 Tokens of Luck to get a win chance of ... % of various items.

I'm just taking the Uncanny Crystals for this example.

Uncanny Crystals were basically 400k on Raging Tide.(I don't know if it was higher or lower before the update but let's be gentle and take this price okai?)

We create a player who has 5 legit accounts and enough Tokens to spill.
Let's calculate.

10 Attempts per day on each account for a week long = 350 attempts

While Uncanny Crystals have a rate of about 72% this would mean:
350 / 100 * 72% = 252 Uncannies from 350 attempts

Let's make it 250 so we all got round numbers.

250 Uncannies would mean that you would have 100m worth of Crystals (250x400k)

Now.. the tokens spend for these Uncannies are:
250 x 20 = 5000 Tokens of Luck

With the new prices people put up for tokens and I have taken the average of some servers combined and divided, this would come out around the 35k each.(live with it)

That means:

5000 x 35k = 175m Worth of Tokens of Luck you can sell. AND that's even without the:

100 x 20 = 2000 Tokens you spend getting something else than Uncannies.

Now, who would buy Tokens of Luck to make Uncannies/Raps or whatever?
YES, I checked the prices on Raging Tide for Uncannies, the cheapest were 305k each
So basically, the NPC is saying:
"Yo, trade 20 tokens in for an Uncanny Crystal, itz good yo!"
While those 20 tokens are basically worth more then the Crystal itself..

So, in this case, PWE actually "force" the player to get Packs and get those tokens from them. Meaning, they want $$$ from you(NO THIS IS NOT A BASH PWE THREAD, JUST STATING SOMETHING)
This so called Aurora NPC has absolutely no reason, other being then **** up the whole economy. The only way the NPC has a use, if getting lucky on the new items you can win with the low win rate OR if the Uncannies suddenly start going up in price. Cause why spend 175m on tokens when you can basically make 100m minimal from it. People who actually buy tokens for these absurd prices are really stupid. Thank god I quit PWI a long time ago.

Asukari - Raging Tide · May 2012

Sorry for a wall of text, the patient people take time to read and understand it.

Leave feedback or changes, I might not be right on certain prices etc.. Don't hate <33b:victory

ICasTBiDS - Raging Tide · May 2012

The main point of Aurora agent is for Damascene ores.
They are outrageously hard to get a hold of on RT and people pay bundles of money for it.
Now that it has been dropped to a 20% rate. People will be able to recast their gear more easily. isntead of paying 10m+ per ore.

Nowitsawn - Heavens Tear · May 2012

ICasTBiDS - Raging Tide wrote: »

isntead of paying 10m+ per ore.

Which you will still have to pay for quite a while, since you also need 298 tokens along with the Eye of Darkness for 1 Damascene Ore.

XxZavxX - Raging Tide · May 2012

I think you and others overreact. The token market and gold prices might be off for now. But you have to wait and see what happens the initial rush to judge. I cannot imagine supply/demand sustaining the initial buying frenzy for too long.

ICasTBiDS - Raging Tide · May 2012

Nowitsawn - Heavens Tear wrote: »

Which you will still have to pay for quite a while, since you also need 298 tokens along with the Eye of Darkness for 1 Damascene Ore.

well the rarity of the item is also an issue to on this server.
I think this was a good addition in my opinion.

Especially excited about the content update.

XxZavxX - Raging Tide · May 2012

ICasTBiDS - Raging Tide wrote: »

The main point of Aurora agent is for Damascene ores.
They are outrageously hard to get a hold of on RT and people pay bundles of money for it.
Now that it has been dropped to a 20% rate. People will be able to recast their gear more easily. isntead of paying 10m+ per ore.

Lol no. Eye of darkness + 396 tokens. Tokens at 20k and your basically going to pay 8m per damascene if you have the Eyes of Darkness. It will drop lower later.

RunningTiger - Dreamweaver · May 2012

funny thing this, with the new stuff released is anyone still gonna be able to talk thier faction into running the nine trials or has this recast rank 9 an nirvy 3 pretty much made it so far from the top to not bother with.

Nahktuul - Archosaur · May 2012

XxZavxX - Raging Tide wrote: »

I think you and others overreact. The token market and gold prices might be off for now. But you have to wait and see what happens the initial rush to judge. I cannot imagine supply/demand sustaining the initial buying frenzy for too long.

This guy has a sensible mind.

Its new, people will test the waters, merchants will see what they can get away with. People will judge if it is worth the effort or not, if it is cheaper to farm/buy outright or trade tokens.

Personally, I commend PWI on a job well done. Coin sink coupled with rather intelligent (by PWE standards) marketing scheme.

Let the greedy, richies sink their coin stupidly. I'll keep doing my own thang b:pleased

Nowitsawn - Heavens Tear · May 2012

Nahktuul - Archosaur wrote: »

Coin sink coupled with rather intelligent (by PWE standards) marketing scheme.

Let the greedy, richies sink their coin stupidly.

It's a token sink, not a coin sink.

Danoria_ - Lost City · May 2012

My theory is that the purpose of this whole thing is to get token prices down. They've been ridiculously high and rising in the past few months on lost. They used to be at roughly 10k, which most people were ok with. Now prices have skyrocketed 14k and still rising. Of course token prices control a lot of other prices, since many things are made with tokens or rely on tokens. So token prices going up, causes the whole market to go up..... and gold is down last I checked.

Olbaze - Sanctuary · May 2012

Danoria_ - Lost City wrote: »

My theory is that the purpose of this whole thing is to get token prices down. They've been ridiculously high and rising in the past few months on lost. They used to be at roughly 10k, which most people were ok with. Now prices have skyrocketed 14k and still rising. Of course token prices control a lot of other prices, since many things are made with tokens or rely on tokens. So token prices going up, causes the whole market to go up..... and gold is down last I checked.

Oh it's not going to make tokens go down at all.

Mostly because it's a pretty decent source for Damascene Ores for recast R8.

John_Johns - Dreamweaver · May 2012

Danoria_ - Lost City wrote: »

My theory is that the purpose of this whole thing is to get token prices down. They've been ridiculously high and rising in the past few months on lost. They used to be at roughly 10k, which most people were ok with. Now prices have skyrocketed 14k and still rising. Of course token prices control a lot of other prices, since many things are made with tokens or rely on tokens. So token prices going up, causes the whole market to go up..... and gold is down last I checked.

How could giving something a new utility (while keeping the old ones) make their price drop? Tokens prices will rise, but not for long, and in the long term it'll come back to around 12-13k, since the aurora NPC is eventual.

It'll start a cycle, possibly. Much like people buy gold during crappy sales so they can get, say, +10 orbs for cheap when the sales come, some people will start buying tokens when the NPC is not around to use them when she comes back. There will soon be QQ thread called "Where's the Aurora NPC? it's been three months already and I have so many tokens waiting".

Olbaze - Sanctuary · May 2012

John_Johns - Dreamweaver wrote: »

How could giving something a new utility (while keeping the old ones) make their price drop? Tokens prices will rise, but not for long, and in the long term it'll come back to around 12-13k, since the aurora NPC is eventual.

That will only work if the periods during which Aurora Agent is present are short and uncommon.

After all, if the period is long, the token merchants will have to start buying tokens at higher prices, which then leads to them not selling them at a lower price once the Aurora Agent is gone.

Similarly, if Aurora Agent is too common, the Token merchants can just shrug off the losses made from not selling tokens at lower prices when the NPC is not present.

And knowing PWI, they'll combo the Aurora Agent with some pack sales.

It'll start a cycle, possibly. Much like people buy gold during crappy sales so they can get, say, +10 orbs for cheap when the sales come, some people will start buying tokens when the NPC is not around to use them when she comes back. There will soon be QQ thread called "Where's the Aurora NPC? it's been three months already and I have so many tokens waiting".

Not necessarily. The usage of Aurora Agent is limited to 10 times per day, so if you can guess how long the NPC will stay around and how often it'll appear, then you can just prepare the appropriate size stack of tokens in advance.

NRJ - Lost City · May 2012

Can't wait.... got few stacks of 9999 tokens, woot!

71% chance to get cannie....
http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/quest/26351

Nowitsawn - Heavens Tear · May 2012

NRJ - Lost City wrote: »

got few stacks of 9999 tokens, woot!

I hope you have a lot of accounts with 80+ characters on it, then. b:lipcurl

Sarrafeline - Sanctuary · May 2012

Damascene Ore is around 18m on Sanct.

spoonweg · May 2012

you people make me laugh b:laugh

the one talks about: it will lower token price, price raises sooooooooo high...14 ea b:cry

the other say: ha, lets see wen the new npc is gone and all the merchants lose profit cuz they sell not much with the high price b:sad

the truth is: token price goes up to 50k on RG
i sell now over 4.000 tokken for 25k ea.

show me were i loose profit or wen its lowers the price...

the plan for pwi goes up, more and more ppl buying packs.
gold price goes up to 1.6m on RG.

for me its not from interrest since i make my profit, this week a great one on selling tokens.
i smell it and buyed yesterday over 10k token for cheap.

so please make more b:cry and entertain the merchants.

KawaiiJen - Heavens Tear · May 2012

Actually speculation wise...

at 30k tokens each... you're guaranteed 450k per pack you open.... at gold prices the way they are... even if you get nothing but tokens... you break even.... so then..... you cold buy out all the gold until you got what you wanted?..... Osh---

Deceptistar - Sanctuary · May 2012

Asukari - Raging Tide wrote: »

So basically, the NPC is saying:
"Yo, trade 20 tokens in for an Uncanny Crystal, itz good yo!"
While those 20 tokens are basically worth more then the Crystal itself..

So, in this case, PWE actually "force" the player to get Packs and get those tokens from them. Meaning, they want $$$ from you(NO THIS IS NOT A BASH PWE THREAD, JUST STATING SOMETHING)
This so called Aurora NPC has absolutely no reason, other being then **** up the whole economy. The only way the NPC has a use, if getting lucky on the new items you can win with the low win rate OR if the Uncannies suddenly start going up in price. Cause why spend 175m on tokens when you can basically make 100m minimal from it. People who actually buy tokens for these absurd prices are really stupid. Thank god I quit PWI a long time ago.

wake up and smell the coffee >.> thats how packs have originally been selling. Not because the failure of 15 tokens adds up to the initial cost of the pack. Most pple buy cause they want to gamble, if not, nirvana dungeon is still there.

Aurora NPC has no use?

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