How to calculate Genie LP chances

/irux - Dreamweaver18
/irux - Dreamweaver18 Posts: 1 Arc User
edited May 2012 in General Discussion
How do you calculate the chances of getting a 91+ LP genie?

http://pwi-wiki.perfectworld.com/index.php/Genie_Guides#Lucky_Points

This chart shows the % of each LP per 10 levels.

http://pwi-wiki.perfectworld.com/index.php/Genie_Rarity

This chart shows the # of genies on average it would take to obtain different LPs.

The rarity chart shows a 100/100 genie would take 16,310,377 genies on average to obtain this much LP. The % for 10 LP is 19%. To get 100/100, one would have to get 10 LP every 10 levels up until level 100.

This is shown in the calculation .19^10 = 0.00000006131066257801 and 0.00000006131066257801 ^ -1 = 16310376.661280205814992313031562 which rounds to 16,310,377. (I did this using my computer's calculator)

When calculating for 91+ LP, I have no clue what to do because there are many combinations of getting 91+ LP, unlike 100 LP where it is simply 10 LP 10 times.

If anyone can figure this out I'll be grateful. b:thanks

Side Note: I know the chart gives the answer as 6,521 but I want to know how they got the answer so it is just a curiosity of math.
Post edited by /irux - Dreamweaver18 on

Comments

  • Traz - Dreamweaver
    Traz - Dreamweaver Posts: 2,843 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    /irux - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    How do you calculate the chances of getting a 91+ LP genie?

    http://pwi-wiki.perfectworld.com/index.php/Genie_Guides#Lucky_Points

    This chart shows the % of each LP per 10 levels.

    http://pwi-wiki.perfectworld.com/index.php/Genie_Rarity

    This chart shows the # of genies on average it would take to obtain different LPs.

    The rarity chart shows a 100/100 genie would take 16,310,377 genies on average to obtain this much LP. The % for 10 LP is 19%. To get 100/100, one would have to get 10 LP every 10 levels up until level 100.

    This is shown in the calculation .19^10 = 0.00000006131066257801 and 0.00000006131066257801 ^ -1 = 16310376.661280205814992313031562 which rounds to 16,310,377. (I did this using my computer's calculator)

    When calculating for 91+ LP, I have no clue what to do because there are many combinations of getting 91+ LP, unlike 100 LP where it is simply 10 LP 10 times.

    If anyone can figure this out I'll be grateful. b:thanks

    Side Note: I know the chart gives the answer as 6,521 but I want to know how they got the answer so it is just a curiosity of math.

    The odds of every chance added together.

    For Instance:
    10/10 .... 1/10 as last roll odds + 10/10 ... 1/10 second to last and 10/10 as last + rest of them filled in.

    Not doing the math as I'm feeling lazy atm.
    BladedZero - Sanctuary
    "Also I don't think actually playing through the game helps your skill either."

    -And we wonder why this game has gone to hell b:cute
  • Salari - Raging Tide
    Salari - Raging Tide Posts: 2,102 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    Man on RT's has a 90+/100 genie, not sure how many it took to get that
    Marine - Marshall - Raging Tides - Retired
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    DEMHEALSMAN - Dreamweaver
    Yes, because people really need 900+ dex or 1000+ magic just for the lulz
  • MagicEmpress - Lost City
    MagicEmpress - Lost City Posts: 795 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    1 in 30,372 for a 95/100 LP genie?
    Damn my sin is lucky.
    I gave him 2 10/10 Zeals when I made him last Christmas, one blew up at lvl 50, started rolling 1s again and again, the other keep going with mostly 10s to 95/100.
  • ItsAWolf - Archosaur
    ItsAWolf - Archosaur Posts: 464 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    Threw together a quick example in javascript how you could generate such a table:

    http://pastebin.com/78CpTXdp

    If you copy paste that code into a .html file, you'll get a table with the odds to get a certain # of LP at a certain lvl and a table with values like the one in the link you gave. If you're at least a little familiar with programming you should be able to figure out how one arrives at those numbers from the code (it's a really small function really).

    I didn't really make it very neat (see the 'Infinity' values for example), but just to give an idea :p

    It's basically:
    1) Get the odds for the LP at lvl 10
    Then the odds at the next lvl are
    odds[lvl][lp] = sum{i=1:10}(odds[lvl-10][lp-i] * odds)
    i.e. you calculate the odds for all different ways to get at the specified number of lp from a previous lvl.
    and recursively work your way up the lvls
  • Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973
    Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973 Posts: 7,881 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    ItsAWolfs method is right. It is similar to the Fibonacci sequence where the recursive definition is pretty simple but the closed form expression is complex and meaningless. The problem with it though is that it shows that a 10/100 genie is almost as rare as a 100/100 genie even though one is worthless and the other is very good. To give something more representative of the worth, the table actually shows the chance of getting a certain lucky points or better. I originally made for myself to decide if I should buy a 91+ genie or make one myself.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    Refining Simulator - aster.ohmydays.net/pw/refiningsimulator.html (don't use IE)
    Genie Calculator - aster.ohmydays.net/pw/geniecalculator.html - (don't use IE)
    Socket Calculator - aster.ohmydays.net/pw/socketcalculator.html
  • CeVil - Momaganon
    CeVil - Momaganon Posts: 55 Arc User
    edited May 2012
    Knowing how much time I need to farm spirit and get a genie to lvl90, I would rather pay 50m or something for 91/100 and save myself a month of time.

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