Possible Bug in ChronoWorld3?

Elanxu - Dreamweaver
Elanxu - Dreamweaver Posts: 521 Arc User
edited October 2011 in Dungeons & Tactics
Hello,

I wanted to bring up a possible bug scenario, or get some help with a quest in valley of scarred. There is a culti quest that involves obtaining 3 times from 3 different types of mobs. According to PWdatabase, the chances of these items of dropping is 5%, which means if i kill 20, they should drop right?

I tried killing them solo. I killing probably a million, and it did not drop.

Tried the same with a squad, did not work. I know that other players have been having the same problem recently. I am beginning to feel that there is a bug. Or possibly, this quest is just supposed to be tremendously hard and I need to kill a billion monsters.....

Please let me know the truth behind this quest. If you are a GM reading this, please verify that there is nothing wrong with the game (as we know, PWI has a million bugs and this may be one of them :P).

Thank you.
the loser fail nab cleric from dreamweaver who quit pwi, but still wanders the forums.
Post edited by Elanxu - Dreamweaver on

Comments

  • Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973
    Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973 Posts: 7,881 Arc User
    edited October 2011
    Elanxu - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    According to PWdatabase, the chances of these items of dropping is 5%, which means if i kill 20, they should drop right?

    That's not what 5% means. At 5% your chance of getting it in the first 20 is about 65%. Your chance after 50 mobs is 92%. You're just the 8% that is unlucky.
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  • sachelfunlol
    sachelfunlol Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited October 2011
    b:question
    Asterelle - Sanctuary wrote: »
    That's not what 5% means. At 5% your chance of getting it in the first 20 is about 65%. Your chance after 50 mobs is 92%. You're just the 8% that is unlucky.

    I dont quite understant that myself
    Lets troll the forums together b:victory
  • Kathikins - Dreamweaver
    Kathikins - Dreamweaver Posts: 30 Arc User
    edited October 2011
    Probability is really not intuitive at all; try this.

    Think of the (much overused) case of flipping a coin:
    You have a 50% chance of either heads of tails. As such, by your logic, you would expect that flipping two coins must give you one head and one tail. Always. Therefore coins must always alternate between heads and tails in order to satisfy this constraint. Regrettably, the universe doesn't actually work like that.

    As you can trivially verify by flipping a coin, say, ten times, you will probably not actually get five heads and five tails. In, fact, you have only a 24% chance of this actually happening (I just (virtually) tried and got nine heads and a tail, for instance).

    In essence, killing something with a 5% drop rate is akin to flipping a coin that has only a 5% chance of landing on heads, and a 95% chance of landing on tails. You could get it on your first try, or not in your first hundred - though there's only a 0.5% chance of not getting it after a hundred tries.

    That probably was not clear at all. Oh well.

    In response to the original question: All the culti quests work fine.
  • sachelfunlol
    sachelfunlol Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited October 2011
    Yes that does make sense, thanks
    Lets troll the forums together b:victory
  • Elanxu - Dreamweaver
    Elanxu - Dreamweaver Posts: 521 Arc User
    edited October 2011
    Sorry my OP was a bit unclear. I did not mean that after 20 kills I would expect the drop. Instead, I meant that after 20, there is a good chance that it would drop, and I would not expect myself to need to kill like millions, because the probability is just too low. I understand how the probability works (chance=100%-95%^however many I kill), and was just making sure that after killing at least 300 of these mobs and not getting it, it was not a glitch in the game, because lots of other people have not been getting the drop either after a ****-ton of kills. I hope a GM or someone can verify the probability for me, that is all I want.
    the loser fail nab cleric from dreamweaver who quit pwi, but still wanders the forums.

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