Did refining chances change and PWI not tell us?
Sakubatou - Sanctuary
Posts: 4,001 Arc User
This may just be a qq about my extraordinary bad luck but its been such a bad streak that I have to ask if pwi nerfed refining and didn't tell us.
First off, I'm not new to refining. Ill usually use mirages and tisha's and tienkangs to refine everything +7 or +8 and then switch to dragon orbs above that (except +6 on weapons). I know my odds, and I've done this with about 20 pieces of equipment. Between dq points and events I often have extra event gold for tisha/tienkang
It normally takes me about 400 mirages to +6 something, sometimes +7. With 600-700 mirages I can usually +8. Sometimes it fails all together but that's why I wait till I have so many mirages, for multiple attempts.
Anyways, about the last 8 timse I've gone to refine I've had ridiculously bad luck. Sometimes it's taken me 200 mirages just to see a +4. One time, after 700 mirages I saw +4 seven times and failed (with aids) to go +5. Trying to refine an axe I got down to my last 180 mirages and decided to settle for +3 but never got past +2 in 180 mirages. In my last 7 attempts to +7 things with 500+ mirages and plenty of refine aids I have only had 1 succeed, which is very rare.
Now, the waste of mirages isn't huge since I think most of us are swimming in them since they added fairy boxes. I have 200+ waiting to be opened. I'm wondering if others are experiencing out of the ordinary bad luck with refining too, or if its just me. Maybe since fairy boxes and caster vana trade ins are flooding the market with mirages they lowered rates (to force us to buy more...)
PWpedia's refining page
____unaided__ tienkang
+1___ 50%___ 65%
+2 ___30%___ 45%
+3 ___30%___ 45%
+4 ___30%___ 45%
+5 ___30%___ 45%
+6 ___30%___ 45%
+7 ___30%___ 45%
Those are the odds and used to seem about right but seem to be way off from what I've experienced lately.
First off, I'm not new to refining. Ill usually use mirages and tisha's and tienkangs to refine everything +7 or +8 and then switch to dragon orbs above that (except +6 on weapons). I know my odds, and I've done this with about 20 pieces of equipment. Between dq points and events I often have extra event gold for tisha/tienkang
It normally takes me about 400 mirages to +6 something, sometimes +7. With 600-700 mirages I can usually +8. Sometimes it fails all together but that's why I wait till I have so many mirages, for multiple attempts.
Anyways, about the last 8 timse I've gone to refine I've had ridiculously bad luck. Sometimes it's taken me 200 mirages just to see a +4. One time, after 700 mirages I saw +4 seven times and failed (with aids) to go +5. Trying to refine an axe I got down to my last 180 mirages and decided to settle for +3 but never got past +2 in 180 mirages. In my last 7 attempts to +7 things with 500+ mirages and plenty of refine aids I have only had 1 succeed, which is very rare.
Now, the waste of mirages isn't huge since I think most of us are swimming in them since they added fairy boxes. I have 200+ waiting to be opened. I'm wondering if others are experiencing out of the ordinary bad luck with refining too, or if its just me. Maybe since fairy boxes and caster vana trade ins are flooding the market with mirages they lowered rates (to force us to buy more...)
PWpedia's refining page
____unaided__ tienkang
+1___ 50%___ 65%
+2 ___30%___ 45%
+3 ___30%___ 45%
+4 ___30%___ 45%
+5 ___30%___ 45%
+6 ___30%___ 45%
+7 ___30%___ 45%
Those are the odds and used to seem about right but seem to be way off from what I've experienced lately.
Seven 100+ characters leveled the hard way. Free to play. Mystic, Psychic, and Wizard left to level. b:victory
Post edited by Sakubatou - Sanctuary on
0
Comments
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Sounds exactly like my luck, i even wasted 600 mirages trying to +3 something b:shocked Still could just be an unlucky day, i know of other people still refining as before. Best you can do is set a limit of mirages/day an just try the next day once you reached that.
Also, those refining rates seem abit too high, dont rely on them too much.[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]0 -
Funnily enough a friend was just telling me he thought his chances were lower than they used to be.
I have very bad luck as well in refining. Ive gone through hundreds to get +3 before, and Ive never managed a +4 with only mirages. I have never had a successful refine using a tisha stone either (im serious, they fail every time. Once I used 50 trying to get to +3 and they all failed.)
other people I know can get +5-+7 with just mir and tisha....lucky ho.es. b:angry0 -
Mekkhala - Lost City wrote: »Funnily enough a friend was just telling me he thought his chances were lower than they used to be.
I have very bad luck as well in refining. Ive gone through hundreds to get +3 before, and Ive never managed a +4 with only mirages. I have never had a successful refine using a tisha stone either (im serious, they fail every time. Once I used 50 trying to get to +3 and they all failed.)
other people I know can get +5-+7 with just mir and tisha....lucky ho.es. b:angry
It is random.
Like packs.
It is possible to waste more than 1000 mirages for +0.[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]0 -
Many have said that when orbs go on sale the, it`s pointless to refine something with mirages or refining aids, last time i tried i wasted 70 tishas or even more and still couldn't get over 6, it even failed from 0 to +1 with tishas which I tried out of frustration lol.[SIGPIC]http://pwi-forum.perfectworld.com/image.php?type=sigpic&userid=14516063001&dateline=1364756666[/SIGPIC] Ty Silvy
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I had the same experience on my veno weapon I tried to make it +6 and after 500+ mirages i had to let it with just +4, it keeps failing over and over.................. the +3 took me like 400 mirages so i give up on keep gambling for that day.[SIGPIC]C:\Users\Fatima\Pictures\neivindicatequickfix.png[/SIGPIC]0
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I concur, recently had terrible results. Used about 700 mirages and could only settle for +4.0
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As far as my luck is c0ncerned I must be cursed l0l.
1.Did daily BH since summer up till this p0int....0nly g0t Mysteri0us Chips and 0ne 0dd time g0t 50 mirages.
2.40 Mirages 0n a +2 Wings 0f Cl0ud Charger....N0rmally I can just use 5 and get a +2 0n anything *facepalm*
3.75 Mirages 0n a +1 Deicide which I later s0ld..
S0 yah my acc0unts are cursed big timed....[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]I know what your thinking.0 -
I really wonder, it makes sense to me. Other night i went through 500 mirages in 4 different location and couldnt get a ring past +2. Never experienced anything like that in the 2 years i been refining0
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I know this is probably just extreme luck and superstition, but 1 hour pasted server reset for dailies, I was able to get 3 items to +5, they were the mold cape from Abbadon, some mold belt from FB99, forgot which, and TT99 Arcane arms.
However a few days ago, I tried to +5 my TT99 arcane boots for my cleric alt, and I had the hardest time getting +4. After 500 mirages in, I just gave up and NPC mirages so I could buy a +5 orb.
Yea....probably a really dumb move on my part. b:cry[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
b:flowerHave a Techno Rave Flower!b:flower
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Its the same...
Some times it takes 3 mirages to refine to +3, some times i takes 200 to get to +3, some times it gets 300 to get to +0... its all luck.WTB> -12% channeling BELT or RING pm me with link or mail me ingame HT server, ty.0 -
My luck with refining has always been pretty bad even while using refining aids, but it's been unusually bad this week. I don't even want to think about the potential money I threw away while trying to refine my gear over the past few days. I don't think anything got past +2 and most stuff ended up +0 because I ran out of stones. WOOHOO!! :P0
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Also the roumors of refining in your faction's territory increasing the chances of refining is not true.
I have the same luck in my territory fully buffed with 3 sparks, than arch's elder with 30 people around riding monocycles eating pie.WTB> -12% channeling BELT or RING pm me with link or mail me ingame HT server, ty.0 -
Yamiino - Heavens Tear wrote: »Also the roumors of refining in your faction's territory increasing the chances of refining is not true.
I have the same luck in my territory fully buffed with 3 sparks, than arch's elder with 30 people around riding monocycles eating pie.
That's your problem. They have to be eating cake for your refining chance to go up.0 -
Sakubatou - Sanctuary wrote: »This may just be a qq about my extraordinary bad luck but its been such a bad streak that I have to ask if pwi nerfed refining and didn't tell us.
First off, I'm not new to refining. Ill usually use mirages and tisha's and tienkangs to refine everything +7 or +8 and then switch to dragon orbs above that (except +6 on weapons). I know my odds, and I've done this with about 20 pieces of equipment. Between dq points and events I often have extra event gold for tisha/tienkang
It normally takes me about 400 mirages to +6 something, sometimes +7. With 600-700 mirages I can usually +8. Sometimes it fails all together but that's why I wait till I have so many mirages, for multiple attempts.
Anyways, about the last 8 timse I've gone to refine I've had ridiculously bad luck. Sometimes it's taken me 200 mirages just to see a +4. One time, after 700 mirages I saw +4 seven times and failed (with aids) to go +5. Trying to refine an axe I got down to my last 180 mirages and decided to settle for +3 but never got past +2 in 180 mirages. In my last 7 attempts to +7 things with 500+ mirages and plenty of refine aids I have only had 1 succeed, which is very rare.
Now, the waste of mirages isn't huge since I think most of us are swimming in them since they added fairy boxes. I have 200+ waiting to be opened. I'm wondering if others are experiencing out of the ordinary bad luck with refining too, or if its just me. Maybe since fairy boxes and caster vana trade ins are flooding the market with mirages they lowered rates (to force us to buy more...)
PWpedia's refining page
____unaided__ tienkang
+1___ 50%___ 65%
+2 ___30%___ 45%
+3 ___30%___ 45%
+4 ___30%___ 45%
+5 ___30%___ 45%
+6 ___30%___ 45%
+7 ___30%___ 45%
Those are the odds and used to seem about right but seem to be way off from what I've experienced lately.
I have same feeling end experience. This is not coincidence. It has to be changed in some MINOR localization changes. Nowadays is huge amount of mirages in game so I suppose they change it.[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]0 -
Just like all easily testable theories with no supporting evidence it's all true! But the catch is they only lowered the chances for non cashshoppers.[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
Refining Simulator - aster.ohmydays.net/pw/refiningsimulator.html (don't use IE)
Genie Calculator - aster.ohmydays.net/pw/geniecalculator.html - (don't use IE)
Socket Calculator - aster.ohmydays.net/pw/socketcalculator.html0 -
Yamiino - Heavens Tear wrote: »Also the roumors of refining in your faction's territory increasing the chances of refining is not true.
I have the same luck in my territory fully buffed with 3 sparks, than arch's elder with 30 people around riding monocycles eating pie.
officers only get a higher chance with specific refine levels. It may also be based on time either how high that chance is, or if the chance is 100% for a certain refine at a certain time.
however the mechanic, however it works is to convoluted for anyone to have figured it out yet. but I can say from experience, that at certain times at certain officers i have gotten 100% success going for +1 to +2, or +2 to +3, always ended up losing it, because a single officer will never have a 100% chance at 2 refining levels, especially consecutive levels.[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]0 -
oh...i just +6 2 gears pieces with 1 tisha each adn 2 tienkang on first try...took me like 30-45ish mirages to +3 then 2 tienkang and 1 tisha +6'd it on first attempt...b:shutup0
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RNG ftw gaiz0
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Asterelle - Sanctuary wrote: »Just like all easily testable theories with no supporting evidence it's all true! But the catch is they only lowered the chances for non cashshoppers.
lol. This.
It's all up to chance, guys. Sometimes you just really are THAT unlucky.
+7 on 2nd recast pants = 150 mirages
+7 on Warsong belt = 450 mirages
+7 on 2nd recast boots = 50 mirages
+7 on 2nd recast top = 800 mirages[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
"subtraction has the butt of an angel" - Paulrogers
I
Subtraction.
/blatant sig copy is blatant
105/105/105 obtained! b:cute0 -
I doubt that the chances have been modified. Sometimes you are lucky and other times you are unlucky. One day I needed 2500 mirages and about 150 refine aids to get to +7, the other day I got it with 200 mirages and 10 refine aids.
The only thing which is really annoying is this *** cooldown between 2 refine attempts. Because of this in my opinion aiming for +8 or higher is sadistic (takes hours).0 -
None of the smart guys above me have mentioned that randomness does not exist in a computer program.Its just some weird math formula that based on a numerous things(Like the exact date+time),to pull out some apparently"Random",result,which isn't.
Im not new to refining either,and I had bad and good luck both in game and in real life,and I think the so-called"Luck",in game its not very realistic(Too much luck sometimes,to less on other times).
Also Its fun how some people mention that they"Once got to +# with # mirages",when OP is talking to a recent change(Which I guess no one here can either confirm or deny since the patch notes are kinda incomplete).The only way to beat a troll is....to troll him back b:angry0 -
BerserkBeast - Sanctuary wrote: »Also Its fun how some people mention that they"Once got to +# with # mirages",when OP is talking to a recent change(Which I guess no one here can either confirm or deny since the patch notes are kinda incomplete).
The refines I stated on the last page?Eoria - Harshlands wrote: »+7 on 2nd recast pants = 150 mirages
+7 on Warsong belt = 450 mirages
+7 on 2nd recast boots = 50 mirages
+7 on 2nd recast top = 800 mirages
All done during this 2x.
Sometimes you're lucky. Sometimes you're not.[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
"subtraction has the butt of an angel" - Paulrogers
I Subtraction.
/blatant sig copy is blatant
105/105/105 obtained! b:cute0 -
BerserkBeast - Sanctuary wrote: »None of the smart guys above me have mentioned that randomness does not exist in a computer program.Its just some weird math formula that based on a numerous things(Like the exact date+time),to pull out some apparently"Random",result,which isn't.
Granted, it's been years since I did anything like computer programming, but generating a random number is a pretty simple function if I remember correctly.
Pen and paper RPGs (which formed the template for the basic rules behind modern MMORPGs) used a very similar system with these ancient things called "dice". A random number would be generated for each action and compared with a chart or against another player's random number (modified by bonuses and penalties from "skills" and "equipment") to determine outcomes. Each time you click a button, the server generates a random number for you, then compares that number to a database file to determine outcome. Making the script behind the process more complicated isn't necessary so it's pretty unlikely that it is.
There have been threads like this several times over the years, whenever anyone has actually tested it, it appears to make no difference about time/location/landownership/etc.
I'd like to see someone with 10k mirages to burn go test again, just to make sure, lol.[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]0 -
It's as random as packs.
There is no confirmed ways to "increase the odds".
I personnaly know someone that got in around 100 packs, 2 Winged Tophy - Lunar Glade and a Cloud Stir (Physical), all at the same "spot" or close. And me going to same place, got 750 tokens out of 50 packs. b:surrenderProud supporter of the new expansion. Sure it has it's share of bugs, like any games. But for a pure farmer/grinder, that's a whole lot of new mobs to go beat up b:chuckle0 -
So can anyone confirm if it changed or not? Not just post your lucky examples. I too have noticed the fail rate seems much higher now.
Some people juggle between items to feel like they cheat the refine system... but even then you are still wasting mirages like crazy. Whatever makes you feel lucky I guessKnownase - Heavens Tear wrote: »I know this is probably just extreme luck and superstition, but 1 hour pasted server reset for dailies, I was able to get 3 items to +5, they were the mold cape from Abbadon, some mold belt from FB99, forgot which, and TT99 Arcane arms.
I've gotten some good luck after reset too. Works best for me then, but trying in the middle of the day is horrible for me0 -
well some numbers would b nice but i no good at math :< (engish too! QQ)
on my main ive refined everything to +7 or 8
my helmet was the only item that took more then 500 mirages (lol like 1,300 <_<). everything else was sub 500, some by a lot.
on my wizard ive burned 2,300 mirages. +6 wep all armors +3/4 <_> uh yea...
anyways numbers would b bestfull r999 91% chan wizzy b:kiss
Current build: pwcalc.com/bf1f46790766e26d
LuLz: pwcalc.com/20f3fa96ab3c4dc00 -
Agreed, I was able to get my R8 magic sword to +8 with under 20 tisha stones.
Tried to get my G14 belt to +6, used over 40 tishas and 10 tienkangs, and only got to +5 once. Also, used 200 mirages trying to get my r8 pants to +3. To this day, they are still +2.0 -
I'm experiencing the exact same things. I'm not as risky as you for +8 on tienkangs (and etc), but I've managed +7 on a couple and +6 on a few...
Recently refining a few items, both weapons and armor and accessories, have all proven failures.
Burning mirages like they are candy, and abusing the AH for gold for more and more and more tienkangs.
Refining is one of my bigger aggravations with this game. Even though I stick to a max of +6 with out investing in orbs these days. But I'm lucky and feel relief when after 500+ mirages to see the single piece +5 (I always tienkang from +3).
Tisha's also for me (I know a couple people have mentioned), have 100% failed every time. Not one single success for me using them.... so I stopped buying them.[SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]0 -
BerserkBeast - Sanctuary wrote: »None of the smart guys above me have mentioned that randomness does not exist in a computer program.Its just some weird math formula that based on a numerous things(Like the exact date+time),to pull out some apparently"Random",result,which isn't.
Incorrect. In actuality computers can generate results that are in effect infinitely more random than a human being shuffling a deck of paper cards would be. I know this as a fact because I have played both paper Trading Card Games as well as Digital Trading Card Games, and I have seen first hand the difference between faulty human hand shuffling, and digitally generated shuffling.
What appears to be extremely bad odds in your opinion are in fact the effects of a truly randomized system which when put into effect generate just as many bad results if not more bad results as it does good results.
I am just happy that the randomizer is working in what appears to be a proper randomization system.
Zarni pretty much got the basic concept correct (granted computer programing of a randomizer is slightly more complicated I would imagine than simply rolling a dice, but the basics are there).Acc 1: TolanSky ~ ● Seeker / Daearena ~ Mystic / ThornLily ~ Veno
Acc 2: Veilana ~ Sin / QueenBlubrry ~ Cleric / Lemondrop ~ Psychic0 -
Skewed viewpoints are skewed.
For the most part, people aren't going to come to the forums to post about how they've experienced better refining than usual. All this thread proves is that some people have rotten luck.0
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