Why i dont buy packs...

It's obvious that your problem lies in not constructing enough additional pylons.

Lesthar - Heavens Tear wrote: »

Well, that is the essence of gambling. Low cost for a try, extremely low chance of winning something valuable, but the probability still exists...
And so you try countless times and realize how much you spend in the end.

But again, in PWI, there are procedures that can bypass this. It's either to buy the final product from others (enjoy forking out the full sum, unless you got a great bargain) or you don't gamble at all. Oh and for some items, I guess you could buy them from the boutique when they are on sale... Just like the higher-leveled dragon orbs (but again, enjoy spending).

there seems to be some weird algorithm that determines which NPC will have better (or worse) chances at certain refine levels for certain grade gears at certain times, unfortunately there are too many variables and too much chance involved for anyone to accurately derive the algorithm. you refined at the wrong place at the wrong time.

Just 8 mirages?

I failed 20 times in a row at +0 :P

Gave up on that day. Tried the next day and got my weapon to +7 with like the same amount of mirages.

Refining with mirages is a gamble but ends up cheaper than D.Orbs (If you get tishas using DQ points/Event Gold).

If spent like 11~12 mils in buying mirages for my weapon and used like 6 mils worth of it to get to +7. And am not even a lucky refiner (Ive known people to get to +6 in 12 mirages..now thats lucky). I fail so many times and have reset my +5 weapon, +6 weapon. Most likely I will reset my +7 in the attempt to get +8.

On the note of packs, I agree with you. The best ive got till now from opening 100 packs is 1 best luck :P.

Sangodoc wrote: »

That's merely a rumor propagated by Duke Blacke, all tests of that have shown no correlation between refining location and refining odds.

Basically, any low-odds high-reward situation is going to make people want to see patterns, even when there is no pattern. That's the source of almost all gambling and sports superstitions.

Humans are pattern seeking animals, and it tends to make us a bit delusional such situations. Resist the urge! Assume that there is no pattern until one can be objectively demonstrated.

Yes, you are correct. And so, I like to put that way of thinking when I am questing.
If quest items drop rate is low, bully mobs until one appears. If not, try again later on. At least it is a guaranteed drop rate. The question is when it will and at what cost of time and effort.

That said, refining is different... Once you have spent the mirages, there is no way to get them back (surely no skim saving like emulators/more recent videogames can allow). This is also the basis of gambling: Spend and you are likely to never get it back, unless you really get something worthy or quit out of frustration.

Hence my earlier post.

We are on the same boat considering the packs lol but not mirages !!! My toon can refine most gear up to +3 easily with the cost of 20 mirages maximum and rarely +4 ( happened only twice so far)b:chuckle This is why most of my friends ask me to refine their gear to +3

Elviron - Dreamweaver wrote: »

On the note of packs, I agree with you. The best ive got till now from opening 100 packs is 1 best luck :P.

On that you have me beat. Over 100 packs and my record of tokens only remains unbroken.

Fortunately, I have decided to listen to my brain. Packs are a thing of the past for me now.

Annalyse - Heavens Tear wrote: »

On that you have me beat. Over 100 packs and my record of tokens only remains unbroken.

Fortunately, I have decided to listen to my brain. Packs are a thing of the past for me now.

1450 packs = 5 best, 1 HP, 1 MP

I no longer open packs.


@OP: Just keep trying. It gets frustrating but isnt THAT hard to go to +5. Ive done it on probably 10 full sets of gear now and +7 on a few others. You spend more refining some pieces than others, but overall its way cheaper.

Elviron - Dreamweaver wrote: »

Just 8 mirages?

I failed 20 times in a row at +0 :P

These are the most frustrating, cause you know that you theoretically had a +12 item. :c

Anything I ever made was a PITA to refine. A friend used 164 mirages trying to refine one of my bows to +4.

I used 120 mirages on that same bow, and it never once got to +2, and that was using refine stones.

If you waste 100+ mirages trying to refine something to +2, and it fails 99.2% of the time (I got it to +1 I think 5 times total), then you know it's not just a simple "50/50 chance" at refining.

It's quite obvious... They want money! Buy Dragon Orbs!

I wasted damn near 500 mirages trying to refine various pieces of gear. Most of it wouldn't get to +3...

And this is yet another reason I had in mind when I quit.