Why do people buy packs?

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Comments

  • RoidAbuse - Sanctuary
    RoidAbuse - Sanctuary Posts: 1,066 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    KrittyCat - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    Heck, I bought 20 Lucky Corals last night just to get some tokens before servers went down, and I got a Rapture Chest...can't beat that, eh?

    OMG he said that TWICE!? Burn him!



    Making something out of nothing.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    Making "non-trash-talkers" show their true color. RAGE ON! b:laugh
  • Axelire - Heavens Tear
    Axelire - Heavens Tear Posts: 286 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    RoidAbuse - Sanctuary wrote: »
    OMG he said that TWICE!? Burn him!



    Making something out of nothing.

    OMG You still can't read. At least quote the other one too.

    b:chuckle Seems RoidAbuse is getting more worked up than KrittyCat.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • RoidAbuse - Sanctuary
    RoidAbuse - Sanctuary Posts: 1,066 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    Axelire - Heavens Tear wrote: »
    OMG You still can't read. At least quote the other one too.

    b:chuckle Seems RoidAbuse is getting more worked up than KrittyCat.

    Yea dude, I'm super infuriated!
    Burn KrittyCat! He's been bought by PWE!
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    Making "non-trash-talkers" show their true color. RAGE ON! b:laugh
  • Axelire - Heavens Tear
    Axelire - Heavens Tear Posts: 286 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    RoidAbuse - Sanctuary wrote: »
    OMG he said that TWICE!? Burn him!



    Making something out of nothing.
    RoidAbuse - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Yea dude, I'm super infuriated!
    Burn KrittyCat! He's been bought by PWE!

    Seems like you're the only person in this thread who is intent on burning KrittyCat. b:laugh
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Rawrgh - Raging Tide
    Rawrgh - Raging Tide Posts: 6,790 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    People buy packs because they like to gamble.


    Statistically yes they are a bad buy, but people hear about the guy that got something really good out of 10 packs and decided to try and gamble.


    Especially because of they "hey even if you lose you still win" idea that tokens gives.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    "My understanding of women only goes as far as the pleasure. When it comes to the pain, I'm like any other bloke - I don't want to know."
  • RoidAbuse - Sanctuary
    RoidAbuse - Sanctuary Posts: 1,066 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    Axelire - Heavens Tear wrote: »
    Seems like you're the only person in this thread who is intent on burning KrittyCat. b:laugh

    Yep! I like to over-react and see things that aren't there. :)

    BTW, buy more packs people! Scroll of tomes will be in the next pack you open. I promise!
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    Making "non-trash-talkers" show their true color. RAGE ON! b:laugh
  • Graey_Rain - Harshlands
    Graey_Rain - Harshlands Posts: 250 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    When they had pack sales a while ago I bought 500 tiger packs cus I needed tokens for rep and it worked out only slightly cheaper to buy tokens from catshops than to just buy packs when factoring in the percentage to get tokens of best luck. From 500 packs I got only best lucks and normal tokens. So that kinda sucked lol. I got a lot of best lucks and I ended spending perhaps 10 mil more coins doing it this way than I would have just buying tokens from players. Which really isn't all that much considering how much I spent in total.
    I have to admit though that I was expecting to get a few nice items out of so many packs and was somewhat shocked by my abysmal luck. Tiger packs have a 1.28% chance to drop something other than tokens or best lucks according to pwi database so that's a 640% chance to get at least one item out of 500 packs lol. So I was expecting about 6-7 items other than tokens from 500 packs. Getting nothing but tokens is similar to rolling a dice 36 times and never getting a 6. Possible but highly improbable. That makes me think the percentages on pwi database are probably bull. But then I know people who have exceptional luck with packs. Just today two people in my faction bought 20 packs each. One got like 5 best lucks in a row, the other 2 lg wing trophy's a vit stone a best luck and I think some other stuff but I can't remember. That second guy got 105 mil worth of items from just 20 packs... QQ I hate him rofl.
    But anyways I'm glad people buy packs. Otherwise I couldn't get event gear and tokens for rank gear and all my chars would suck QQ How's my sin ever gonna hit 5 aps if people don't buy enough packs to get love up and down and sell it to me b:cute Not getting pan gu creator... all the ppls with love would laugh at me QQ and heck how would I even get that without packs? You know how much that costs to make without using scripts of fate b:shocked Also where would I get my wing trophy's my vit stones my sign of frost chaos's and my lunar weapons. I love packs, please don't ever take my packs away QQQQQQQ

    P.S. The above statement soooo does not mean I'm a mod/gm/bought by pwi etc lolz b:bye
  • Axelire - Heavens Tear
    Axelire - Heavens Tear Posts: 286 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    RoidAbuse - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Yep! I like to over-react and see things that aren't there. :)

    BTW, buy more packs people! Scroll of tomes will be in the next pack you open. I promise!

    If RoidAbuse doesn't see it, its not there. RoidAbuse sees all.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Jellytoast - Sanctuary
    Jellytoast - Sanctuary Posts: 1,295 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    How come everyone gets so upset that people don't "work" and "farm" for their gear and whatnot?

    You call sitting and clicking work? At least people who spend RL money on this game actually work for it. (Usually)
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    jellytoast - Demon Cleric
    Wizzypop - Demon Wizard

    "We cannot solve our problems with the same
    thinking we used when we created them." -Albert Einstein
  • Graey_Rain - Harshlands
    Graey_Rain - Harshlands Posts: 250 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    Work for money??? I dunno I really wouldn't consider my job as any harder than sitting on a computer clicking buttons tbh haha. But I do earn way more money doing it than you could make ingame b:cute
  • DaKillanator - Raging Tide
    DaKillanator - Raging Tide Posts: 2,965 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    I've never bought a pack because I'm scared that if I do and get anything besids tokens I'll be addicted b:shocked


    And why do people insist that you should grind for every little thing? Grinding= sitting at your computer, clicking a mob, pressing your hotkey, and clicking again to pick up loot.

    Compared to a RL job, which in my case= shoveling dirt, mowing lawns, moving rocks, using dangerous machinery, etc.

    I work waaay harder for my RL money, and if I see it fit to spend $20 on PWI as opposed to a pay per view fight, or the movies, so be it, it's my money to spend on my entertainment of choice.
  • WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary
    WarrenWolfy - Sanctuary Posts: 1,686 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    Graey_Rain - Harshlands wrote: »
    I have to admit though that I was expecting to get a few nice items out of so many packs and was somewhat shocked by my abysmal luck. Tiger packs have a 1.28% chance to drop something other than tokens or best lucks according to pwi database so that's a 640% chance to get at least one item out of 500 packs lol.
    Multiplying 1.28% X 500 gives you get the average of 6.4 items, yes, but to calculate the chance of getting something after 500 tries you need to use exponents.

    So the formula would be: 1 - ((1 - .0128) ^ 500) = 99.84%

    That's 1 in 627, which is bad luck indeed, but not unheard of.
    Graey_Rain - Harshlands wrote: »
    So I was expecting about 6-7 items other than tokens from 500 packs. Getting nothing but tokens is similar to rolling a dice 36 times and never getting a 6. Possible but highly improbable. That makes me think the percentages on pwi database are probably bull.
    The percentages are extracted from the game files themselves, so it's unlikely they are in error.

    However, it should be pointed out that sometimes the numbers don't always add to 100%. Some charts on pwidatabase show values that add up to 101% or more. In cases like those the game goes through the list in order until it reaches the number it has picked. Thus items at the end of the list that would take it past 100% don't actually have the odds they say, since the game never picks a number beyond 100%.
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  • DaKillanator - Raging Tide
    DaKillanator - Raging Tide Posts: 2,965 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    Graey_Rain - Harshlands wrote: »
    So I was expecting about 6-7 items other than tokens from 500 packs. Getting nothing but tokens is similar to rolling a dice 36 times and never getting a 6. Possible but highly improbable. That makes me think the percentages on pwi database are probably bull.

    Well another way to look at it is like this...

    There is a 2% chance that a pack will give something good when opened, not necassarily by you, but anyone that opens a pack.

    So it's more like you rolling the dice, getting a 5, someone else rolling the die and getting a 3, then someone else rolling the die and getting a 6.

    In other words, somebody else is stealing your luck b:angry

    Your that guy that opens 20 packs, and then right before he opens the pack with the big loot, somebody else opens their first pack and get's the jackpot, leaving you to go through more packs.
  • Michael_Dark - Lost City
    Michael_Dark - Lost City Posts: 9,091 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    DaKillanator - Raging Tide wrote: »
    In other words, somebody else is stealing your luck b:angry

    I know two different people who just bought 5 packs each and got Scroll of Tome.

    I've sat there and opend 100 packs and got nothing but tokens either.

    So, to the OP's question... Why do people buy packs? Gambling. And, addiction. It's really just that simple.
    I post in forums. This one and others. That's why I post.
  • Graey_Rain - Harshlands
    Graey_Rain - Harshlands Posts: 250 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    Yeah I know how to calculate the percent of getting something but I couldnt be botherd lol. I was just estimating and throwing in some estimated figures. The percentage I said wasn't meant as a literal percentage, meant it more as a ratio of the chance to obtain at least one item. Was just using it to show how high the chance is to get something. Obviously you cant have a 640% chance to get something lol that's impossible. But since probability wise you'd expect about 6 items you can see what I was getting at. So I wasn't trying to calculate a percentage. If you bought 100 packs statistically youd be likely to get 1.something items. 500 packs your likely to get 6.4 items. Thats what I meant with that percentage. Statistically youd get 6.4 items, which is what I was insiuating by saying 640% It's like saying if you buy 100 packs you have a little over 100% chance to get an item or 200 you have a 200% chacne to get an item. Obviously its not true and you don't have those chances as its impossible, but it means your likley to get 2 items if you say 200% If ya get me lolz.
    Sorry for the confusion, I shouldnt have said that and used a different method to make my point, but yeah none of the math or anything in my post was actually calculated or worked out. Just rough estimates or things I wrote to demonstrate a point, not real math lol. b:bye
  • Graey_Rain - Harshlands
    Graey_Rain - Harshlands Posts: 250 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    DaKillanator - Raging Tide wrote: »
    Well another way to look at it is like this...

    There is a 2% chance that a pack will give something good when opened, not necassarily by you, but anyone that opens a pack.

    So it's more like you rolling the dice, getting a 5, someone else rolling the die and getting a 3, then someone else rolling the die and getting a 6.

    In other words, somebody else is stealing your luck b:angry

    Your that guy that opens 20 packs, and then right before he opens the pack with the big loot, somebody else opens their first pack and get's the jackpot, leaving you to go through more packs.

    lol, yeah those luck thieves QQ
    But statistics don't work like that. With a large sample size of 500 you should see a dispersal that somewhat reflects the statistics involved. It doesn't matter what other people get at all. The chance to get something in 1 individual pack is small. But if you take a 100 packs and open them all the chance to get something is likely. Of course each individual pack has the same odds to drop an item, so it's possible to get nothing good from hundreds of packs. But it's also possible to roll a 6 on a dice 100 times in a row. That is however a statistical impossibility and shouldn't ever happen in practice. Unless thousands of people sit there rolling dice all day lol. With 500 packs it's not a statistical impossibility to get no items but it's very very unlucky if the percentages are correct.
  • Anchali - Heavens Tear
    Anchali - Heavens Tear Posts: 84 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    Axelire - Heavens Tear wrote: »
    If RoidAbuse doesn't see it, its not there. RoidAbuse sees all.

    oh Axelire lol
    archer is awesome.
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  • Solandri - Heavens Tear
    Solandri - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,843 Arc User
    edited November 2010
    Graey_Rain - Harshlands wrote: »
    But statistics don't work like that. With a large sample size of 500 you should see a dispersal that somewhat reflects the statistics involved.
    If you have access to Excel or OpenOffice, the magic formula to calculate this is BINOMDIST.

    BINOMDIST(c, n, p, i) will tell you what the odds are for getting c prizes out of n packs

    c = how many prizes
    n = how many packs you open
    p = probability to get a prize
    i = individual or cumulative probability (0 or 1 respectively)

    =BINOMDIST(3, 100, 0.03, 0) will tell you that you have a 22.7% chance to get exactly 3 prizes from opening 100 packs if there's a 3% chance to get a prize.

    = BINOMDIST(3, 100, 0.03, 1) will tell you that you have a 64.7% chance to get 0, 1, 2, or 3 prizes from opening 100 packs if there's a 3% chance to get a prize.
    It doesn't matter what other people get at all.
    Correct. The best way to think of it is that yeah someone could steal your luck on a pack by opening theirs just before yours. But it's equally probable that the big prize will be the second pack and not the first. So by opening their pack before yours, they're actually giving you the prize. On average the two possibilities balance out so the order you open them doesn't matter.

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