Refining success rate nerfed?

I made my weapon and boots both +5 the other day using only 10 tienkangs. Later I tried to +5 my cape, used 15 tienkangs and it never went past +3.

All luck.

Refining time 4am-10am I think.

I usually have the best luck at Dreaming Cloud, however we own that land... seems to be lucky for me. +3 a whole set of 80 gold with 58 mirages. But, I have gotten really unlucky there as well... using 200 or so mirages to get my cape to +4.

All depends on luck. Some items will go up easy, some with a little difficulty and one or two that would have been cheaper to orb.

It's also best to do them in batches. When going from +4 to +5 or +5 to +6, doing a full set seems to be best.

I'd say it's all luck. I got my lunarglade cape to +6 with about 70 mirages, then promptly dropped it to +0 despite using tishas and tienkangs. My L90 beamhoof slicer got to +4 with 28 mirages. But I've spent over 170 mirages trying to get those stupid L30 handaxes of demonic roar to +3 without success.

Squeakytoy - Dreamweaver wrote: »

A few weeks ago I got a new Warsoul of Heaven (hat) and I tried to refine it to +3. It took 140 mirages.

There's about a 10% of it taking 140 mirages or more, so yeah, you were unlucky, but not incredibly so. My worst run of bad luck to reach +3 was about 250 mirages, but there have also been times when I've gotten it with 10 mirages or less, so it balances out.

Squeakytoy - Dreamweaver wrote: »

Today, I tried to refine that same hat to +5. I bought 10 Tienkang stones and went to town. 190 mirages and 10 Tienkang stones later and my hat is still only +3.

That's not uncommon. I generally budget around 500 mirages and 10 Tienkangs for each +5 I'm going for, but I've exceeded that a few times. The mathematical average is about 190 Mirages and 5 Tienkangs, though, so I rarely use up as much as I budget.

I admit that it's a very frustrating process. However, I've only ever had 1 item cost more to refine to +5 than it would have with Dragon Orbs, while the other 12 items ended up costing far less and more than made up for the 1 loss.

Squeakytoy - Dreamweaver wrote: »

So, has something changed? Are G13 items harder to refine than lower grade items? Am I just insanely unlucky?

I doubt anything has changed, but I haven't refined anything for about a month. High level items are not any harder to refine than low-level items, and based on what you're describing you're unlucky, but not insanely so.

Squeakytoy - Dreamweaver wrote: »

(Note, the hat only reached +3 twice during this whole ordeal. The first time after using 140 mirages, and finally again after using another 190 mirages and 10 Tienkang stones.)

Well, if you were using the Tienkangs before you reached +3, then it sounds like you were getting frustrated and using them too early. You shouldn't be using them until you are trying for +4 or +5.

Basically, the advantages of refining without Dragon Orbs (ie. less than half the average cost) is eliminated if you start using refining aids too early, and thus you'd be paying full price or more anyway.

A Week ago I got two weapons, my sleeves & boots to +5 with one try with mirages... I almost crapped myself.
Then took about 150 mirs for leggings, which is about how much it takes ME on average for +5 with other gear.

Guess you're very unlucky...

Double edit: is 500 mirages really cheaper than a 4 and 5 star dragon orb?

I see a lot of cheap mirs now. Let's say one is 12k
500x12k=6m$

5* orb is 18 GOLD; lets say gold is 400k (duno price at the mo)
18x400=7.2m$

4* orb is 7.5 GOLD
7.5x400=3m$

But for +4 it takes me about 50-100mirages

<.< Correct me if I'm wrong somewhere

Wow... so much misinformation. b:shocked

No, the refining rate hasn't changed.
No, higher level items aren't harder to refine (only higher levels of refining are harder to refine.)
No, there isn't a time of day when it's better to refine.
No, Duke Blacke's advice on refining doesn't affect your odds.
No, different NPCs don't have different refining odds.
No, refining in batches doesn't affect your odds.
Yes, it's all basically luck. b:surrender

Make sure you check out the "Refining for cheap" thread for the best info on how to refine cheaply. Most of the above myths were debunked in that thread as well.

Squeakytoy - Dreamweaver wrote: »

So, is it worth trying for +5 at this point? Having spent over 5 million coins already, I don't know if it would be worth it to try taking it past +3 again.

It really depends how risk averse you are.

Assuming you can find Mirages for 13.5k and Dragon Orbs for 100k, it would currently cost you ~10 million to refine to +5 using Dragon Orbs.

However, if you use Mirages to get to +3, then Tienkans to get +4 and +5 (assuming you pay about 425k for Gold), you have a 95% chance of success if you start with 10 million, but you'll actually only pay an average of ~3.4 million before you succeed.

The question is whether or not you can accept the 5% chance of failure. If you don't want to risk it, then you can just stick with Dragon Orbs and pay full price.

Squeakytoy - Dreamweaver wrote: »

Double edit: is 500 mirages really cheaper than a 4 and 5 star dragon orb?

They would currently cost ~6.75 million on my server, but really 500 is just a rule-of-thumb I have for how many Mirages I should have before I start trying to refine. On average, it only takes 188 Mirages to reach +5, but if you only plan for the average then you're going to fall short a lot of times.

Personally, I set aside roughly enough money to match how much it would cost to use Dragon Orbs, then refine without them. The result is that 9/10 I end up with huge savings left over, which means it's not that big a deal when 1/10 I end up losing some instead.

Rainbowvidel - Sanctuary wrote: »

I always use Dragon Orbs. 100% success every time and no wasted mirages.

To each their own, but personally I look at waste differently.

It's true that I've watched thousands of Mirages go *poof!* as my refining fails and I lose all the Mirages/Tienkangs I've just spent, but at the end of the day I've got 13 items refined to +5 for a total cost of about 50 million.

To do them with on-sale Dragon Orbs would have cost around 120 million, so yeah, I "wasted" all those Mirages/Tienkangs. But I also saved 70 million, so I'm pretty happy about the results.