Double drops gone already?

ShadowX - Raging Tide
ShadowX - Raging Tide Posts: 32 Arc User
edited April 2010 in General Discussion
^As title says.

I've been grinding spiders and I'm no longer seeing more than 2 compound venoms.
Post edited by ShadowX - Raging Tide on

Comments

  • Airyll - Dreamweaver
    Airyll - Dreamweaver Posts: 2,882 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    1. Search is your friend.

    2. Unless you've killed, you know, over 1000 mobs and seen the same result, tallied it all and everything, you're going to have no idea if it's over or not.

    Seriously, before people start crying that double drops is over they need to learn how the hell double drops actually works. Let's outline it, again, because the search function is so hard to use. [I think I need to write this up in a damn guide somewhere and petition to have it stickied.]

    When a monster dies, the game picks a number at random from 0-3. Let's say the game ends up randomly picking 2, shall we? That's the number of drops you get. Two. This can include coin drops, I believe.
    During double drops, the game picks a random number from 0-6. How do we work this out? We multiply both original numbers by two.

    0 x 2 = 0 ← that's your first number
    3 x 2 = 6 ← there's your second number

    Thus the new spread of numbers is 0-6

    The same works for every drop from every boss or mob. You still have the potential to get absolutely no drops, meaning if you want to see if double drops is still on you need to kill a huge number of monsters so you have a large enough survey number.
    PWI's randomisation is questionable, which is probably why it sometimes always seems like you never get more than an average number of drops. This, however, doesn't mean double drops is over.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Dustins_ALT - Harshlands
    Dustins_ALT - Harshlands Posts: 423 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    No but the drop rate sucks atm on this 2x bull ****
    pwcalc.ru/pwi/?char=d5665672759051ef

    ^ my barbs built, full buff in tiger.b:bye

    I'm not going to troll anymore T_T
  • ShadowX - Raging Tide
    ShadowX - Raging Tide Posts: 32 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    1. I know it should end on the 14th, that is why I posted this thread this.

    2. I've only averaged 180k per hour from 2 hours grinding at spiders.
    And I haven't seen more than 2 item drops, while, with double drops, seeing 4 DQ's drop from one mob was not uncommon.
    I am also seeing a lot more no drops not to mention coin drops are only around 100-300 now.


    Furthermore, your theory on double drops seems wrong.

    Instead, the system most likely used 2 independent rolls:
    Ex:
    from 0-3 1 was picked
    and from 0-3 2 was picked
    Then 1+2=3 and that'd be how many drops I would get.

    The reason for this is that for a (0 to 3)x2 pick, I have a 25% chance of getting nothing (1 in 4 mobs).
    However, during double drops, the chance of nothing was not nearly as noticeable:
    .25^2=.125 (on average, 1 in 8 mobs give nothing).

    3. Please contribute more to the thread than hypotheses and speculations.
    I am wondering if double drops have disappeared after yesterday's update.
  • Airyll - Dreamweaver
    Airyll - Dreamweaver Posts: 2,882 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    ShadowX - Raging Tide wrote: »
    1. I know it should end on the 14th, that is why I posted this thread this.

    2. I've only gotten 180k from 2 hours grinding at spiders.
    And I haven't seen more than 2 item drops, while, with double drops, seeing 4 DQ's drop from one mob was not uncommon.
    I am also seeing a lot more no drops not to mention coin drops are only around 100-300 now.


    Furthermore, your theory on double drops seems wrong.

    Instead, the system most likely used 2 independent rolls:
    Ex:
    from 0-3 1 was picked
    and from 0-3 2 was picked
    Then 1+2=3 and that'd be how many drops I would get.

    The reason for this is that for a (0 to 3)x2 pick, I have a 25% chance of getting nothing (1 in 4 mobs).
    However, during double drops, the chance of nothing was not nearly as noticeable:
    .25^2=.125 (on average, 1 in 8 mobs give nothing).

    1. Search is still your friend because there have been assloads of topics asking the same question, some starting after only even a few days.

    2. I used to explain, actually, that the game would randomise 0-3 and then 0-3 again, but in all honesty I haven't sat down and studied double drops to see if it works on a basis of (0 - 3)x2 or a basic 0 - 6 value. I've not been having this problem with double drops that everybody else complains about, so I haven't sat down to consider which of the two randomisation tactics this game uses.

    Either way, be it (0 - 3)x2 or a simple 0-6, you would still need a large sample to actually sit down and tally up the numbers. Easily 1k mobs or more if you want an accurate depiction of what double drops gives and whether it's still on or not. This also means, for a comparison, you'd then have to kill the same amount of mobs when double drops is not on, and tally that to compare the end numbers.

    There should still be a difference. I'd do it myself but I'm not having this problem people seem to be complaining about, so as of yet, I personally have no reason to go out my way to make such a comparison.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • ShadowX - Raging Tide
    ShadowX - Raging Tide Posts: 32 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    Airyll - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    1. Search is still your friend because there have been assloads of topics asking the same question, some starting after only even a few days.

    2. I used to explain, actually, that the game would randomise 0-3 and then 0-3 again, but in all honesty I haven't sat down and studied double drops to see if it works on a basis of (0 - 3)x2 or a basic 0 - 6 value. I've not been having this problem with double drops that everybody else complains about, so I haven't sat down to consider which of the two randomisation tactics this game uses.

    Either way, be it (0 - 3)x2 or a simple 0-6, you would still need a large sample to actually sit down and tally up the numbers. Easily 1k mobs or more if you want an accurate depiction of what double drops gives and whether it's still on or not. This also means, for a comparison, you'd then have to kill the same amount of mobs when double drops is not on, and tally that to compare the end numbers.

    There should still be a difference. I'd do it myself but I'm not having this problem people seem to be complaining about, so as of yet, I personally have no reason to go out my way to make such a comparison.

    1. Why don't you try searching and find a useful, RECENT thread for me then.
    If double drops changed after today's update, I can reasonably expect to see a thread in the first two pages.

    2. I am not going out of my way to count every mob and the drops either.
    Which is why I'm asking for people's experience (today) with the drops.


    If you're so adamant about finding a mathematical theory, here is something to consider:
    Assume I take 20 seconds per mob I kill, a more than generous estimate.
    That would mean (1 mob/20 seconds)x(60 seconds/minute)x(60 minutes/hour)x(2 hours)=360 mobs.
    Out of 360 mobs I have not seen more than 2 DQ drops.

    With double drops, using your theory of (0-3)x2, the system would have to roll a 0 or 1 (or 2/4 choices).
    Assuming equal and independent chances for each number, the chance of this happening consecutively is (2/4)^360.
    With my guess of 2 rolls independent, it would be 0.5^720 chance.
  • Airyll - Dreamweaver
    Airyll - Dreamweaver Posts: 2,882 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    ShadowX - Raging Tide wrote: »
    1. Why don't you try searching and find a useful, RECENT thread for me then.
    If double drops changed after today's update, I can reasonably expect to see a thread in the first two pages.

    2. I am not going out of my way to count every mob and the drops either.
    Which is why I'm asking for people's experience (today) with the drops.


    If you're so adamant about finding a mathematical theory, here is something to consider:
    Assume I take 20 seconds per mob I kill, a more than generous estimate.
    That would mean (1 mob/20 seconds)x(60 seconds/minute)x(60 minutes/hour)x(2 hours)=360 mobs.
    Out of 360 mobs I have not seen more than 2 DQ drops.

    With double drops, using your theory of (0-3)x2, the chance of this happening consecutively is (2/4)^360.

    1. Why should I when I'm not having a problem? Search function is there for you to use, not for people to use for you. Duh.

    2. If you aren't willing to actually sit down and do some number crunching, you shouldn't come in here claiming double drops are broken. I don't have a problem with you asking for people's experience, but that's not what you did, is it now?

    Nope, you simply asked if double drops was gone and then came up with a vague and very whimsical reason as to why you came to that conclusion. I'm not adamant on a mathematical theory, but I want you to show me actual reasons beyond "QQ, not seen more than 2 drops" for you to even suggest that double drops is broken or has been removed.

    Cause you know, that would also be more likely to grab the attention of GMs if you can prove that it's not working in some way.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • INovaI - Archosaur
    INovaI - Archosaur Posts: 133 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    Players across the board have been reporting lower drop rate, even before the first ever double drops. General consensus is DQ drop rates have been nerfed.
    People take different roads seeking fulfillment and happiness. Just because they're not on your road doesn't mean they've gotten lost.
  • XxLady_XelxX - Dreamweaver
    XxLady_XelxX - Dreamweaver Posts: 455 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    Many players are also impatient and quit if they don't see definitive results within the first few minutes.

    Having been AoE grinding on spiders for the better part of the past couple couple days (averaging about 3-5 hours per session on any given day), I can say fairly confidently that 2x is still up, regardless of whether drop rates have been modified a bit.

    Granted, there are a few mediocre pulls here and there, but those are balanced by the occasional explosion of the nearby pinata factory on other pulls. And plenty of 'acceptable' groups in between.
  • Anri_Rose - Archosaur
    Anri_Rose - Archosaur Posts: 346 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    Yes well its so hard to believe with ppl talking about raking in 300K an hour , just on grinding , but i guess in some part of this it comes down to a bit of luck, and persitance right.
    Where have all the mages gone. Long time casting.
    Who altered my siggy im
    kinda scared b:shocked
  • Tremblewith - Heavens Tear
    Tremblewith - Heavens Tear Posts: 1,558 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    I was grinding on my BM a couple of days ago, and pulled in 600k in 3 hours, so it seems to be working well for me b:pleased
  • Conavar - Heavens Tear
    Conavar - Heavens Tear Posts: 1,193 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    Tremblewith - Heavens Tear wrote: »
    I was grinding on my BM a couple of days ago, and pulled in 600k in 3 hours, so it seems to be working well for me b:pleased

    The drop rates do seem to be better for lower end levels.

    My Archer gets loads of drops grinding mobs 5+ levels lower, while on this char the drops are bad even on mobs the same level.

    But then again my luck with drops has always been sucky in any game Ive played.... Karma b:angry
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Tremblewith - Heavens Tear
    Tremblewith - Heavens Tear Posts: 1,558 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    Conavar - Heavens Tear wrote: »
    The drop rates do seem to be better for lower end levels.

    My Archer gets loads of drops grinding mobs 5+ levels lower, while on this char the drops are bad even on mobs the same level.

    But then again my luck with drops has always been sucky in any game Ive played.... Karma b:angry

    Yeah I totally know what ya mean. Grinding on my barb for 3 hours... I'll honestly be lucky to pull 150k w/ repair and just overall drop rates on higher lvl mobs.
  • Foralya - Heavens Tear
    Foralya - Heavens Tear Posts: 6 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    I'm now really wishing I'd screenshotted my last grind session last night, with about 3 piles of 3-4 DQ drops on screen at the same time, all generated within about a minute of each other. Probability and random luck can be cruel, and god knows I've questioned this game's random number generator on a number of occasions in the past ("Miss! Miss! Miss!" etc), but I'm still fairly confident that double drops are still in effect. There are always gonna be ups and downs, and everyone's mileage will vary. Such are the wonders of statistics.
    pwi-forum.perfectworld.com/showthread.php?t=263481
    ^^ Greatest thread of all time. Demon Archer.
  • ShadowX - Raging Tide
    ShadowX - Raging Tide Posts: 32 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    Foralya - Heavens Tear wrote: »
    I'm now really wishing I'd screenshotted my last grind session last night, with about 3 piles of 3-4 DQ drops on screen at the same time, all generated within about a minute of each other. Probability and random luck can be cruel, and god knows I've questioned this game's random number generator on a number of occasions in the past ("Miss! Miss! Miss!" etc), but I'm still fairly confident that double drops are still in effect. There are always gonna be ups and downs, and everyone's mileage will vary. Such are the wonders of statistics.

    I had 3-4 DQs drop yesterday as well, how are your drops today?
  • Calindil - Heavens Tear
    Calindil - Heavens Tear Posts: 10 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    For what its worth, double drops seem ok to me too. o.o Luck is a fickle thing though.
  • Foralya - Heavens Tear
    Foralya - Heavens Tear Posts: 6 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    ShadowX - Raging Tide wrote: »
    I had 3-4 DQs drop yesterday as well, how are your drops today?

    Er, I'm posting this at work b:avoid But I'll be sure to check things out as soon as possible later on when I get the chance.
    pwi-forum.perfectworld.com/showthread.php?t=263481
    ^^ Greatest thread of all time. Demon Archer.
  • Foralya - Heavens Tear
    Foralya - Heavens Tear Posts: 6 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    Results are in. I spent exactly 1 hour at my favourite grind spot, shooting fishies.

    I was lucky enough to get a few drops here and there:
    lol_drops.jpg

    Here's me at the merchant afterwards:
    cash_in_time.jpg
    Add on the ~40k coins I accumulated, and that's close to 400k in one hour, plus more potions than I could
    carry, thousands of arrows I don't want (why can't they drop bolts!?!), and about a dozen Wild Ginseng.

    Suffice to say, double drops is working just great for me.
    pwi-forum.perfectworld.com/showthread.php?t=263481
    ^^ Greatest thread of all time. Demon Archer.
  • ThanosQRt - Dreamweaver
    ThanosQRt - Dreamweaver Posts: 2,457 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    can you get 10 drums in tt1-1 without 2x drops?:p
  • Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973
    Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973 Posts: 7,881 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/mob/11164

    Drop rate of severals items
    0: 76.7437%
    1: 17.4422%
    2: 4.6513%
    3: 1.1628%

    Doing this twice:
    0: 58.9%
    1: 26.8%
    2: 10.2%
    3: 3.4%
    4: 0.6%
    5: 0.2%
    6: 0.01%
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    Refining Simulator - aster.ohmydays.net/pw/refiningsimulator.html (don't use IE)
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  • Choze - Dreamweaver
    Choze - Dreamweaver Posts: 101 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    Pay no mind to Airyll, she just like to make an **** of herself arguing with people and trying to insult them. (Wannabe mod I guess)

    None the less, 2x drops do appear to be working. They are however picky at times.
  • Baltonus - Heavens Tear
    Baltonus - Heavens Tear Posts: 11 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    Unless i'm verry unlucky, i noticed TT runs don't drop as much gold mats as last 2x event :S
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • AlbireoTwo - Lost City
    AlbireoTwo - Lost City Posts: 2,056 Arc User
    edited April 2010
    Or maybe the drop rate halved, and you are receiving double the half drop rate?
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

    Thank you Forsakenx for the picture. b:thanks

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