Forshura's Arm drop rate in TT2-3 Single Mode

Elenacostel - Heavens Tear
Elenacostel - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,822 Arc User
edited January 2010 in Dungeons & Tactics
Greetings, heroes.

Based on your own experiences, can anyone tell me what you feel is the drop rate of Forshura's Arms in TT2-3 Single Mode? 1 every 2 runs? 1 every 3 runs?

I'm debating whether or not I want to farm it.
Post edited by Elenacostel - Heavens Tear on

Comments

  • Konariraiden - Heavens Tear
    Konariraiden - Heavens Tear Posts: 6,505 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    Not even worth it to do solo.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

    Yeah, it's me. Don't read to much into it, though; I'm only here for myself now, killin' time and chillin' when need-be. So sue me. Tch...
  • Reivi - Sanctuary
    Reivi - Sanctuary Posts: 742 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    long time ago .. you could get 1 every 2 runs ..

    no its more loke 1 every 4 or 5 runs.;

    just find a good suad.; it ll be easier
    I look at all the trollers, and Pvpers.. and know they wouldnt have lasted 30sec on Camelot.

    Rules= Know your enemy (players and NPCs) gives you more chances to survive.
  • Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973
    Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973 Posts: 7,881 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    A friend of mine took 15 runs to collect 5 arms.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    Refining Simulator - aster.ohmydays.net/pw/refiningsimulator.html (don't use IE)
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  • Darksylph - Heavens Tear
    Darksylph - Heavens Tear Posts: 1,816 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    The drop rate is both by PWdatabase, and personal experience on my Veno; 16.667% per drop. Since Each kill is 3 drops, thats 1 every 2 runs over the long span. While its very easy to get none or 2 or even 3 in 1 kill, if you do enough runs, the overall average will come out to about 1 arm every 2 runs.
  • Devoted - Lost City
    Devoted - Lost City Posts: 3,634 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    Darksylph - Heavens Tear wrote: »
    The drop rate is both by PWdatabase, and personal experience on my Veno; 16.667% per drop. Since Each kill is 3 drops, thats 1 every 2 runs over the long span. While its very easy to get none or 2 or even 3 in 1 kill, if you do enough runs, the overall average will come out to about 1 arm every 2 runs.

    If it's 16.667% to drop per individual drop and forshura drops 3 items the chance of getting an arm is roughly 42% per run.

    (1-((1-.1667)^3))*100


    Sorry, I'm an archer I'm forced to do math. b:surrender
  • Mamiko_mao - Sanctuary
    Mamiko_mao - Sanctuary Posts: 115 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    Devoted - Lost City wrote: »
    If it's 16.667% to drop per individual drop and forshura drops 3 items the chance of getting an arm is roughly 42% per run.

    (1-((1-.1667)^3))*100


    Sorry, I'm an archer I'm forced to do math. b:surrender

    My math sucks (and the symbols I use are different). How does this work? {1/ [1/(16.667/100)] <symbol?> 3} *100? b:surrender
  • drjiggle
    drjiggle Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    Devoted - Lost City wrote: »
    If it's 16.667% to drop per individual drop and forshura drops 3 items the chance of getting an arm is roughly 42% per run.

    (1-((1-.1667)^3))*100


    Sorry, I'm an archer I'm forced to do math. b:surrender

    You're both calculating different quantities, and you're both right. Your 42% is the chance of getting at least 1, but it's not the average number of Arms. You're not accounting for the fact that sometimes you get 2 or 3. If the drop rate is 16.67% (which based on my own experience, I doubt -- don't assume that pwdatabase is always right, it isn't.) then the average number of Arms is 3 * .1667 = .5.

    Consider coin flips -- flip 3 coins. Your chances of getting 1 head are 1-((1-.5)^3))= .875%. The average number of heads is 1.5.

    As a venomancer whose primary source of income for a long time was solo HH, I don't think solo mode has been worth it since the patch where 1-1 Chientien started dropping perfect stones instead of mirages (can't remember when that was; new Frost?). The possible exception is during a double drop period.
  • Zek - Dreamweaver
    Zek - Dreamweaver Posts: 10 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    I get on average 5 arms per 7 runs on average over 100 runs say but you have to be able to cope with bieng unlucky for 5 runs say

    Yesterday I did 3 runs with nothing and the next 3 runs gave 2 arms EACH! so that was 6 runs 6 arms

    Bearing in mind that you use 3 US @ say 75k each

    Costing total of 1,350,000

    6 arms sold at 600k each

    Sales of 3,600,000

    do the math eh its worth it *with a herc*

    Now you dont want to forget that you get other drops to help gain profit
    2 other bosses with green mats and mirages

    other mobs along the way more than cover repairs for a veno.

    The thing with solo TT runs is ....

    You need to be a veno with a herc say around level 82 to 87 to do them quickly and you need to do a lot of runs per day say 10 runs a day

    Assuming you tele round your paperclip quest or you may run out of time lol

    I do my paperclip in 40 mins on average teleporting the whole time
    costing about 70-100k a day on top of the 70k ish for my Crazy stones

    I rarely do squad instances and I have thus far funder all of my TT armor right up to TT90 just by Herc tanking TT solo instances.

    PS this does not work on Dreamweaver /grins evily at those competing in AH

    Zek 90 barb / 8x Herc Veno b:laugh
  • Elenacostel - Heavens Tear
    Elenacostel - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,822 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    I solo it with this account; I do not play any alts. I use up a lot of potions doing so as an archer, so I was wondering if it was worth it.

    I don't do the last boss; his drops are not worth much and he hits too hard for my tastes.

    At least on HT, Arms sell for 800k in the AH.
  • Mivi - Lost City
    Mivi - Lost City Posts: 112 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/mob/15631
    from pwdatabase

    the boss has a fixed number of drop: 3 (the mex on pw)
    and the server count drop rate 2 times
    so 6 item at the max

    change of drop of a sigle arm is ~33%
    on 6 drops is ~90% the change to got a green mats
  • Elenacostel - Heavens Tear
    Elenacostel - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,822 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    So far on 5 runs, I've gotten 2 Arms.
  • Lusca - Sanctuary
    Lusca - Sanctuary Posts: 754 Arc User
    edited January 2010
    Devoted - Lost City wrote: »
    Sorry, I'm an archer I'm forced to do math. b:surrender

    lol so glad i never choose to roll an archer as my main b:chuckle

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