Higher Refine Chance

//////////// - Lost City
//////////// - Lost City Posts: 22 Arc User
edited October 2009 in General Discussion
Hi.
I know that u can influence the chance of refining and that u can +3 without orbs easily. I heard it depends on the territory and on the time. Can any1 tell me in which territories i have the best chance to +1, +2, ..etc. and at what time i should refine. And if there are other things which influence refine chance, plz tell me them. So i can refine at least +3 without orbs, because they r expensive these days. thanks b:victory
Post edited by //////////// - Lost City on

Comments

  • Mantas - Sanctuary
    Mantas - Sanctuary Posts: 128 Arc User
    edited October 2009
    As far as i know, Duke Blatche in Archo can give u some tips where refining have more chance of success. I think u need to pick "Rumors" option .

    I can be wrong b:chuckle
    b:laughb:chuckleb:pleasedb:cuteb:victoryb:thanks
    No, i just LOVE these smiles
    and...
    yes, my english sucks but if u able to answer to my post than u understood what i wanted to say b:victory
  • //////////// - Lost City
    //////////// - Lost City Posts: 22 Arc User
    edited October 2009
    yea, i know, but it takes ages to get the information from duke. He also talks about other useless things and i dont wanna wastee hours on talking with him.
  • tweakz
    tweakz Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited October 2009
    What is the quantitative gain in chance by following the advice? (I bet no one knows). By the time you fly back and forth between territories every time you still fail, the amount you save will pail in comparison to the potential you wasted by commuting. BUT it's not provable because it's based on chance and those chances are undisclosed.

    Gamblers: You can't lose if you don't play.
    Be kind: Help the GMs to depopulate the servers.
  • Peritia - Lost City
    Peritia - Lost City Posts: 397 Arc User
    edited October 2009
    tweakz wrote: »
    BUT it's not provable because it's based on chance and those chances are undisclosed.

    Given a large enough sample, and including all variables, it would be possible to build a model which accurately approximates the chance of successful refining.

    Admittedly, the chance of collecting such a wealth of valid data is unlikely.

    Also, by my understanding, the (hypothesized) increased refining chances are at the Officers for the territories, thus unless you're in a top-factor guild (ie. on LC, Conqueror) you won't have a chance to try it out anyways.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973
    Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973 Posts: 7,881 Arc User
    edited October 2009
    I was able to refine my boots to +4 at the plume city elder. He's always been lucky for me. It took 20 mirage. My rule of thumb is to switch elders if you fail 3 times in a row (because he is unlucky).
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
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  • Calliope - Heavens Tear
    Calliope - Heavens Tear Posts: 328 Arc User
    edited October 2009
    I've had some pretty good success getting to +2 at the appropriate officer. Last time it only took me 3 mirages!

    The officers I know of are the ones in the top left of the map (the snow area). The furthest one over is the officer for +1, the middle is for +2, the one closest to Etherblade is +3. I don't bother with the +1 guy though (well, we don't have that territory, but I wouldn't bother if we did). Refining to +1 has good enough odds that you can just do it at the +2 officer, then try for the +2.

    Today or tomorrow I'm going to try to take a bunch of the +2 items to +3. Like someone already said, it's not worth it to fly over the whole map just to + one item. I have a few that I'm working on, though, so I don't mind a few trips. Then I can just use my orbs to +4.

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