Has gift pack prize rate dropped?

Absoluth - Heavens Tear
Absoluth - Heavens Tear Posts: 764 Arc User
edited September 2009 in General Discussion
Im just wondering, cuz without the duke shouting, pwi kinda lost the 'advertisement' and even though you can still see who purchases stuff like lunar capes, i barely see anything anymore. You dont see anybody selling anything either (or trading for that matter), so it kinda hints out that they nerfed drop rate so you'd have to spend more to try and get something out of it.

I myself opened like 200+ gifts and got just 4 luck tokens and 1 garnet gem. Considering i've talked to alot of ppl in the first week that got 2~3 lunar pieces in 150 gifts or so, either there were too many lucky ppl in the beggining or im getting screwed for 'participating' late on the gift sale.

Any thoughts on the matter?
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Post edited by Absoluth - Heavens Tear on

Comments

  • Alexeno - Sanctuary
    Alexeno - Sanctuary Posts: 1,006 Arc User
    edited September 2009
    it's "random"... meaning your gained items are tracked within your account/character, and the drop % curve skews to only allow you a reasonable chance to get the good stuff for so long (it's designed to force you to be unable to acquire more ingame value than you've spent on the packs themselves)

    don't know if that made sense, but yea
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  • Mad_Doc - Sanctuary
    Mad_Doc - Sanctuary Posts: 136 Arc User
    edited September 2009
    You should have sold those gold for coins and buy the gears in game. Lunar weapons only cost about 30 mil on average, frost about 15mil, etc.. Or you could have used the money to buy lucky tokens and wait for the event to be over to jack up the prices. Heck, you can buy the flawless citrines and resell at 3-4 times the price once events are a month over.

    The problem many people have in this game is being caught by the gambling scheme. If you haven't noticed, the game is based alot on a gambling/chance system. The interesting thing to note is that just like in casinos, most of the stories you hear about the packs are from ppl who WIN stuff. You see people talking about winning lunar glade stuff, frost, mounts, etc.. but often times they neglect to tell you the hundreds and hundreds of failed attempts they had. Gambling only helps a very few.

    Do the smart thing. Instead of letting the game feed off your money, use your money to feed off the lucky people. Use the coins you get from converting gold to coins to buy the gears of your choice instead of a random thing.

    Here is my little food for your thoughts: The more fortunate people will lose when they gamble, the unfortunate ones will win. Why is that?
  • Coraline - Lost City
    Coraline - Lost City Posts: 867 Arc User
    edited September 2009
    I wouldn't know..but I finally bought my first anniversary box for about 420k (with in game gold from auction house) and on my first try I got a Token of Best luck...so idk...but all of the other times Ive bought gold..I have only gotten the regular tokens...so idk. It just depends I guess.
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  • Blancheneige - Heavens Tear
    Blancheneige - Heavens Tear Posts: 1,494 Arc User
    edited September 2009
    They are also probably selling less anniversary pack now than in the first few days of the even start.
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  • DW_Vane - Sanctuary
    DW_Vane - Sanctuary Posts: 42 Arc User
    edited September 2009
    Man, If i had 200 Golds ($200) I would not waste it with those aniverssary packs , I would sell them:: That would make me 80 million b:dirty wich I then would use to buy those gears from someone with better luck and still have some Millions left..
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  • Telarith - Sanctuary
    Telarith - Sanctuary Posts: 1,417 Arc User
    edited September 2009
    First day out of 57 packs I had 3 Best tokens and some heavenrage boots. Next week out of 200 packs: 2 best tokens. I'd say either the first day had boosted chance, or they do track it per person like someone else said.
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  • david12345
    david12345 Posts: 161 Arc User
    edited September 2009
    Its probably because less people are buying/opening packs.
  • Absoluth - Heavens Tear
    Absoluth - Heavens Tear Posts: 764 Arc User
    edited September 2009
    Man, If i had 200 Golds ($200) I would not waste it with those aniverssary packs , I would sell them:: That would make me 80 million wich I then would use to buy those gears from someone with better luck and still have some Millions left..
    Obviously i didnt have that much all at once. I bought a few, sold tokens, bought more, sold tokens, and so on. If i had 80M, i'd be wearing a love tome by now ;)
    it's "random"... meaning your gained items are tracked within your account/character, and the drop % curve skews to only allow you a reasonable chance to get the good stuff for so long (it's designed to force you to be unable to acquire more ingame value than you've spent on the packs themselves)

    don't know if that made sense, but yea
    So basically if you dont get anything in the first 100 or so, stop trying?
    Mad_Doc - Sanctuary wrote: »
    You should have sold those gold for coins and buy the gears in game. Lunar weapons only cost about 30 mil on average, frost about 15mil, etc.. Or you could have used the money to buy lucky tokens and wait for the event to be over to jack up the prices. Heck, you can buy the flawless citrines and resell at 3-4 times the price once events are a month over.

    The problem many people have in this game is being caught by the gambling scheme. If you haven't noticed, the game is based alot on a gambling/chance system. The interesting thing to note is that just like in casinos, most of the stories you hear about the packs are from ppl who WIN stuff. You see people talking about winning lunar glade stuff, frost, mounts, etc.. but often times they neglect to tell you the hundreds and hundreds of failed attempts they had. Gambling only helps a very few.

    Do the smart thing. Instead of letting the game feed off your money, use your money to feed off the lucky people. Use the coins you get from converting gold to coins to buy the gears of your choice instead of a random thing.

    Here is my little food for your thoughts: The more fortunate people will lose when they gamble, the unfortunate ones will win. Why is that?
    Thanks for posting something completely off-topic.
    Im quite aware this game is based on illegal gambling. In fact, im almost taking it up to BBB about it. Thing is, this is not a discussion on wether you should keep money and buy from someone else (in HT, orns go for 60~80M, tomes for 80~100M and capes for 65M..these are the items im interested in), make profit from gift prizes after event is over or about buying money with real cash (which i never did...ever). Its about a possibility of drop ratio being lowered after they shut duke up.
    So before making a smartass post, pay attention.
    PWI:
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  • david12345
    david12345 Posts: 161 Arc User
    edited September 2009
    After duke was silenced, my friend got a lunar insig within his first 6 packs... he has spent a big $0 on PWI.

    On the 14th of sept (long after duke was muted) I got 2 lunar insigs, weap and orn back to back. Yesterday I got 2 best luck tokens back to back, followed by aero delight.

    Has the chance decreased? I doubt it.
  • Poison - Heavens Tear
    Poison - Heavens Tear Posts: 1,444 Arc User
    edited September 2009
    It's not nerfed. the chance is just so low sometimes you are lucky sometimes you aren't. Saturday, I was quite lucky.
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  • Absoluth - Heavens Tear
    Absoluth - Heavens Tear Posts: 764 Arc User
    edited September 2009
    Seems like im just unlucky then. Oh well, was thinking of quitting anyways. After i burn all my coins, i might just do it ^^
    PWI:
    "Free to play. Pay to win"

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  • Poison - Heavens Tear
    Poison - Heavens Tear Posts: 1,444 Arc User
    edited September 2009
    I had some very unlucky runs too, with chances that low, that's what happens. b:chuckle
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  • Solandri - Heavens Tear
    Solandri - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,843 Arc User
    edited September 2009
    Best estimate I have from talking with guildmates, friends, and my own records, and watching the Duke shouts when he was making them is that you have a ~2% chance to get a best luck token, and fractional % chance to get the other prizes.

    If you assume there's a 98% chance to get just luck tokens, running a binomial distribution over 100 trials yields the following probabilities:

    13.26% - 0 prizes / 100 luck token packs (13.26% cumulative)
    27.07% - 1 prize / 99 luck token packs (40.33% cumulative)
    27.34% - 2 prizes / 98 luck token packs (67.67% cumulative)
    18.23% - 3 prizes / 97 luck token packs (85.90% cumulative)
    9.02% - 4 prizes / 96 luck token packs (94.92% cumulative)
    3.53% - 5 prizes / 95 luck token packs (98.45% cumulative)
    1.14% - 6 prizes / 94 luck token packs (99.59% cumulative)
    0.31% - 7 prizes / 93 luck token packs (99.91% cumulative)
    0.07% - 8 prizes / 92 luck token packs (99.98% cumulative)
    0.015% - 9 prizes / 91 luck token packs (99.997% cumulative)
    0.003% - 10 prizes / 90 luck token packs (99.999% cumulative)

    That is, if you were to open 100 packs, then chance of getting nothing but luck tokens is 13.26%, the chance of getting just one non-luck prize (99 luck token packs) is 27.07%, the chance of getting two prizes is 27.34%, 3 is 18.23%, etc.

    So the reports of people getting 4, 5, or 6 prizes out of ~100 packs isn't really that unusual. They're within the expected range for the number of people who read these forums (probably several thousand). So I wouldn't conclude those reports (or lack of them) mean they changed the prize rate on the packs.
  • eatwithspoons
    eatwithspoons Posts: 54 Arc User
    edited September 2009
    This is a rumor that has been going around too often. Rates are difficult to change, and they were not changed for this item
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