Case Study: Gloom Trigger Percentage

Elenacostel - Heavens Tear
Elenacostel - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,822 Arc User
edited July 2009 in Archer
Purpose: To determine how often Gloom triggers. Specifically, from the TT80 weapon Crimson Horn: Soulsmasher

Setup: Hover in the air above a melee boss, such as Gouf the Aerox Chief. Equip only 100 arrows. Make sure you have no more in your inventory because it will auto-equip when you are low on arrows.

Test Run: Fire away with normal attacks. The boss cannot hit you, and you cannot kill the boss. Just count the number of times Gloom triggers. Note that trigger effects like Gloom and Knockback (not the skill) are independent of you hitting or missing. For example, I have in the past Knockbacked a mob that I "missed" with my Knockback bow.

Results:

I did two test runs:

1) First test run resulted in 5 Gloom triggers. I recall that the first 50 attacks only had 1 Gloom trigger.

2) Second test run resulted in 5 Gloom triggers as well. I recall a streak of at least 40 attacks that had no Gloom triggers.

Notes:

For those unaware, a Gloom effect lasts 10 seconds (measured with a timer).

This does seem to be a surprise. I know I have Gloomed 3 times in a row, before. If 5% is indeed the percentage for Gloom to trigger, then the chance of Glooming 3 times in a row is 1/(20^3) = 1/8000 = 0.0125% chance of occuring. I must grind too much.

I'd like others to post results, if they can. This can be for any trigger, not just Gloom. I would be interested in knowing how often these triggers come into play. Please do not post vague impressions like "I feel it triggers about 30% of the time." This is meant to be a (simple) statistical sample of how often triggers come into play.
Post edited by Elenacostel - Heavens Tear on

Comments

  • Lunnark - Sanctuary
    Lunnark - Sanctuary Posts: 325 Arc User
    edited July 2009
    Elenacostel - Heavens Tear wrote: »
    Note that trigger effects like Gloom and Knockback are independent of you hitting or missing. For example, I have in the past Knockbacked a mob that I "missed" with my Knockback bow.

    Starting from the hypothesis that I am not denying this possibility, nor that I doubt the opinions of Lady Elena which are most of the times accurate, I would like to find out more about this. For instance I have never missed a knockback and still push the mob away.

    If anybody had some similar experience with shots that miss, but the skill effect still takes place, please post some more opinions and experieces (maybe a list of such effects that are activated regardless of the hit/miss of the shot fired). I think is an interesting topic.

    Note: sorry for hijacking the thread; any answers can be posted in a new one!
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  • Elenacostel - Heavens Tear
    Elenacostel - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,822 Arc User
    edited July 2009
    Lunnark - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Starting from the hypothesis that I am not denying this possibility, nor that I doubt the opinions of Lady Elena which are most of the times accurate, I would like to find out more about this. For instance I have never missed a knockback and still push the mob away.

    This is not through the usage of a any skill. I have a bow with the Knockback PROC.
  • Lu$t - Sanctuary
    Lu$t - Sanctuary Posts: 1,005 Arc User
    edited July 2009
    Hmm interesting because im going to start working on my tt80 weapon soon and was debating between flashfire or CH:S. I have a unicorn and thundercrack already (and a wind and clouds....wha? i like havin multiple weapons b:victory) but idk which weapon i will make my primary in my 80s and now im wondering since it appears to be a 5% chance if its worth me investing in. Hope more post their experiences with the gloom effect.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

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  • GodlyTank - Dreamweaver
    GodlyTank - Dreamweaver Posts: 114 Arc User
    edited July 2009
    Lunnark - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Starting from the hypothesis that I am not denying this possibility, nor that I doubt the opinions of Lady Elena which are most of the times accurate, I would like to find out more about this. For instance I have never missed a knockback and still push the mob away.

    If anybody had some similar experience with shots that miss, but the skill effect still takes place, please post some more opinions and experieces (maybe a list of such effects that are activated regardless of the hit/miss of the shot fired). I think is an interesting topic.

    Note: sorry for hijacking the thread; any answers can be posted in a new one!

    One good example is me on my cleric.

    I used WhirlWind, and missed, but the slower movement speed effect still took place.
    b:sweat
  • Lu$t - Sanctuary
    Lu$t - Sanctuary Posts: 1,005 Arc User
    edited July 2009
    GodlyTank - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    One good example is me on my cleric.

    I used WhirlWind, and missed, but the slower movement speed effect still took place.

    Wait how did cyclone wind miss? I thought magic always land although an effect may fail. Not the other way around lol
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    Carpe diem, quam minimum credula postero~
  • Elenacostel - Heavens Tear
    Elenacostel - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,822 Arc User
    edited July 2009
    Lu$t - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Hmm interesting because im going to start working on my tt80 weapon soon and was debating between flashfire or CH:S. I have a unicorn and thundercrack already (and a wind and clouds....wha? i like havin multiple weapons b:victory) but idk which weapon i will make my primary in my 80s and now im wondering since it appears to be a 5% chance if its worth me investing in. Hope more post their experiences with the gloom effect.

    It is important to note that although it triggers only 5% of the time, the duration lasts 10 seconds. Therefore, unless you kill the mob on the attack it triggers, you will actually be firing multiple attacks while under the Gloom buff, per trigger.

    With no other attack speed increase, CS:H will give you 0.69 attacks / sec. In ten seconds, that's 6 whole attacks. Taking into account that you can kill the mob prior to the Gloom effect disappearing, let's say you get on average 2 or 3 attacks off while under the Gloom effect. That would mean 15% of your attacks are under the Gloom effect.

    The math is actually more complicated than that, because you have to take into account the number of attacks you make on average to kill a monster. Additionally, you have to factor in how often a Gloom trigger can occur while you are already under the Gloom effect. Stuff that is simple for a statician, which is not me.

    For bosses, the percentage of attacks under the Gloom effect is close to the optimal, as you will almost always be able to make your 6 whole attacks for the entire Gloom effect.
  • Challotte - Dreamweaver
    Challotte - Dreamweaver Posts: 36 Arc User
    edited July 2009
    Elena - I really appreciate the work you did on that! I hope as I gain levels to be able to do more "statistically valid" comparison work like this as well - it really helps provide data to make decisions!

    If you have time, would you be willing to repeat the process even more just to give more of a sample size? If you can make time to do 7 more sets of 100 and compile the data, that 1000 shots should definitely provide enough evidence to make some good judgements!

    Great work!!
  • Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973
    Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973 Posts: 7,881 Arc User
    edited July 2009
    100 is probably not really statistically significant. I'd do it again for 1000 arrows (though that takes 20 mins).

    I'm pretty sure tho 5% procs on weapon effects is well established though.
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  • Elenacostel - Heavens Tear
    Elenacostel - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,822 Arc User
    edited July 2009
    Well, I was hoping others would contribute to this...

    But yes, I need to do more than 2 cases. Heaven's Tear decided to fritz last night after I did 2 test runs.
  • Legerity - Sanctuary
    Legerity - Sanctuary Posts: 1,072 Arc User
    edited July 2009
    Elenacostel - Heavens Tear wrote: »
    Well, I was hoping others would contribute to this...

    But yes, I need to do more than 2 cases. Heaven's Tear decided to fritz last night after I did 2 test runs.

    Hi Elena, I will be happy to participate in this.

    I am aiming for 5x1000 sets (I'll post my results over the weekend) depending on time.
  • Legerity - Sanctuary
    Legerity - Sanctuary Posts: 1,072 Arc User
    edited July 2009
    I made a new thread for personal tracking of data.

    I did not carry out the promised 5x1000 as stated in the thread, my apologies :(

    http://pwi-forum.perfectworld.com/showthread.php?t=359332

    BTW: I will link this to my thread if I have permission from Elena. Otherwise, I have only listed my post number.

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