TW Predictions: 06/19/09 -- 06/20/09

Konariraiden - Heavens Tear · June 2009

Yo! Get out of your grindin' modes, put your Esotericas away, and listen up! It's time for another round of TW Predictions broadcast all over the Heaven's Tear Server! This week's broadcast is brought to you by Dr. QQ-Brand Soda: "When life gives you lemons, don't make lemonade. Just reach for a refreshing can of Dr. QQ Soda; now with a 50 percent chance of RAGEQUIT!"

Alrighty, then...time for the reason y'all came here; let's get these predictions rollin'!

DISCLAIMER: All predictions made are purely the opinions of Konari Raiden, and should not be attributed to any other player, faction, or group. If these predictions hurt your feelings in any way...go AN HERO, please. b:cute

Friday, June 19th Territory Wars

Knights attacking Evolution

Well, looks like Evolution's a lucky, lucky Faction...gettin' the first TW action of the week, with all of their lands at risk! Methinks Evo's gonna have a lot to prove this weekend, as regulars of the forums snacked on a filling piece of QQ Pie with ryhan's "Evolution" thread, where many ex-Evo members voiced their opinions and shed light on Evo's supposedly "covert" past...wall-of-texts galore, but a great read if you wanna kill some time during World Quest or Crazy Stone; go check it out! ...oh, yeah, the prediction...Evo'll take this one...c'mon, it's Misfortune, y'really think they'll just let it go?

Victor: Evolution

Radiance attacking Evolution

Evo's special TW day continues with Radiance's attack on Ancient Peak. If there's any indication to be taken from last week, it's that Radiance still has what it takes to beat Evo. Evo better really step up and defend quickly here; if they lose this one, Rad'll be poised for a perfect strike on Misfortune...and I think that Rad has what it takes to snatch it from 'em!

Victor: Radiance

Alianza attacking Evolution

Roundin' out Evolution's defense day is Alianza's attack on Walled Stronghold...and yet another TW'ing faction steps onto the stage to strut their stuff and test their mettle! However, that's pretty much all this TW is going to be...a test of Alianza...Evo's kinda dwindling nowadays, but they still have enough fight in 'em to defend against the newcomers to the TW scene...if they lose against either Alianza or Knights...well, I don't know what to say about Evolution's future other than...well...damn.

Victor: Evolution

Enrage attacking Triad

Personally, this is the Territory War that I'm looking forward to the most on Friday. Enrage will be pretty much protecting Archosaur as much as Wellspring in this battle...however, last time Enrage attacked Triad, they were able to successfully defend and repel Enrage's attack. I'm sure that's spurred Enrage to build up forces and go even harder at Triad, but I'm sure Triad has mastered the art of turtling, and will try it again, if going for Enrage's crystal fails, this week. Grab the Cheetos, Mountain Dew, and Ben-****, everyone...this one's gonna be a long one!

Victor: Triad

Saturday, June 20th Territory Wars

RoadKill attacking Radiance

Well, well, well! Radiance gets the first block of TW's on Saturday, and it looks like RoadKill's gonna be vying for another chance at some of that sweet, sweet land...at Radiance's expense, of course. However, even with all the drama and BOMB ARM'ing in Radiance's past, they seemed to have stopped the bleeding of their members, and are now able to keep a decent hold on their land...hey, maybe if Enrage attacks 'em in the future, they'll finally feel like defending again, perhaps...?

Victor: Radiance

Enlighten attacking Radiance

Out of all the "white-name" (non-land owning, if you haven't figured that out already) Factions fighting this weekend, I have to say that Enlighten perks my interest the most. Not because they had land before, or have been around for a while...but simply because of a snarky (yes, snarky) remark saying the "Buddhists" of Enlighten should attack the Taoists. Why? For the lulz, I guess. Honestly, I wouldn't mind partaking in that battle...hm...Enlighten should really give it some thought...religious battles are always funny. b:laugh

Victor: Radiance

Evolution attacking Radiance

Countering Radiance's attack on Ancient Peak, Evolution's hopin' to take Haunted Path from the grasp of the "orange menace". I'm fairly certain this'll be the battle that Radiance will go full-force on, and given Evo's still falling to some drama, while Radiance seems to have managed their problems, I'm givin' it to Rad this time.

Victor: Radiance

Tao attacking Enrage

Next up on the TW chopping block is Enrage, defending against three Factions now, instead of last week's two. The forums have been running wild with back-and-forth banter about last week's Tao/Enrage TW, and everything should be settled with this one. No cata advantage, even playing field...hopefully equal numbers. It's time to put up or shut up for both Factions...with all the chest-beating and "bragging" throughout the week, I'd better get a fight of equal proportions!! b:angry

Victor: Still in Tao, so not touchin' this one.ಥ_ಥ

Triad attacking Enrage

...wow. Honestly, I'm surprised. I mean, Triad had a perfect setup to take Archosaur...and I mean, with an 8 cata advantage, and Enrage takin' a three-pronged attack this weekend, Triad probably would've gotten it fairly easily! I mean, who cares if Enrage might have taken it back the next week? It's still 30 million coin, and you could just attack it back the week after that! What, did Enrage pay you guys off to not take Arch...'cause it kinda looks that way. Just for that, I'm not givin' you the edge...missin' a great opportunity, you really are...

Victor: Enrage

Caesar attacking Enrage

The last of our Enrage triple-teamers is Caesar, the Faction who sadly lost to Enrage in the dual-pronged attack last week. They lasted a good amount of time though, and showed that they do have the strength to give Enrage a run for their money. Since Enrage's forces will more than likely be even more spread out this week, and I'm sure Caesar has buffed up a bit since last time, I'm gonna go ahead and give this one to Caesar. What can I say? They've carved a nice niche for themselves in my heart. b:kiss

Victor: Caesar

Aaaaaand, that's it for this week's TW Predictions! Best of luck to all of the battling Factions; no wimping out, now! Also, if you'd like to "sponsor" the next broadcast of TW Predictions, drop me a line either in-game, on forum PM's, or hell, just say so on here! Now get back to your silly Zhenning!

ಥ_ಥ ...beautiful.

Stickygreen - Heavens Tear · June 2009

lol, much better this week

Beraun - Heavens Tear · June 2009

Konariraiden - Heavens Tear wrote: »

Enlighten attacking Radiance
Out of all the "white-name" (non-land owning, if you haven't figured that out already) Factions fighting this weekend, I have to say that Enlighten perks my interest the most. Not because they had land before, or have been around for a while...but simply because of a snarky (yes, snarky) remark saying the "Buddhists" of Enlighten should attack the Taoists. Why? For the lulz, I guess. Honestly, I wouldn't mind partaking in that battle...hm...Enlighten should really give it some thought...religious battles are always funny. b:laugh

Victor: Radiance

Confucious say... "Enlighten not here for your amusment!!"

Seriously though, giving Rad the nod on defending all three at once, eh? I think we'll pull off the upset. We've been practicing our Kung-Fu! b:victory

Anneliesse - Heavens Tear · June 2009

much better this week. Great job... now to see how close you are b:pleased

Konariraiden - Heavens Tear · June 2009

Beraun - Heavens Tear wrote: »

Confucious say... "Enlighten not here for your amusment!!"

Seriously though, giving Rad the nod on defending all three at once, eh? I think we'll pull off the upset. We've been practicing our Kung-Fu! b:victory

Anneliesse - Heavens Tear wrote: »

much better this week. Great job... now to see how close you are b:pleased

Hehe...honestly, I don't mind at all being wrong in my predictions...the more colors on the map, the better! :P I'm estimating I'll get about...3 wrong this time, though. xP

SgtSIaughter - Heavens Tear · June 2009

Beraun - Heavens Tear wrote: »

Confucious say... "Enlighten not here for your amusment!!"

Seriously though, giving Rad the nod on defending all three at once, eh? I think we'll pull off the upset. We've been practicing our Kung-Fu! b:victory

I'm willing to put my money on Enlighten and/or RK taking a land off Rad's hands this week.

Rad may have stopped the bleeding but lets have a numbers rundown.

Faction members: ~200
Attendance     : 60%+
Members per TW : 80
Concurrent TW's: 3

IF(and this is a big if) Rad has close to the max of 200.
200 members divided by 3 = 66 per TW

(The following is stated without having any knowledge of the Rad member count or roster)

But using the common knowledge that you will have a 100% showing.
200/.6= 120 Members online IF they are at max

Since Evo is most definitely going to send close to 80, anything less than 80(or close to it) from Rad might prove an upset win going to Evo and cause Rad's past wound to open yet again.

70~80 to Evo leaves 40(if they are lucky) to attend the RK/Enlighten gank.

Enlighten attacking Radiance
Victor: Enlighten

RoadKill attacking Radiance
Victor: RoadKill

Evolution attacking Radiance
Victor: Radiance

Wilzxen - Heavens Tear · June 2009

Konariraiden - Heavens Tear wrote: »

Tao attacking Enrage
Next up on the TW chopping block is Enrage, defending against three Factions now, instead of last week's two. The forums have been running wild with back-and-forth banter about last week's Tao/Enrage TW, and everything should be settled with this one. No cata advantage, even playing field...hopefully equal numbers. It's time to put up or shut up for both Factions...with all the chest-beating and "bragging" throughout the week, I'd better get a fight of equal proportions!! b:angry

Victor: Still in Tao, so not touchin' this one.ಥ_ಥ

Sorry, do Triad, Caesar and Tao share the same time slot? (Can't check currently at work)
But if it is a shared time slot, I don't think this is an even playing field, as Enrage will have 3 strong guild vs them. Unless for some weird reason they abandon the other 2 battles (which I don't think they will abandon).

Therefore this is not a good test of strength.

Livedeath - Heavens Tear · June 2009

I miss Hisui. I dont think Konra is experienced enough with high level TWs to be giving judgments but not for lack of trying. IMO Since I disagree with a lot of his predictions for just not making sense and flawed logic in his reasoning for some of his predictions.

Stickygreen - Heavens Tear · June 2009

Livedeath - Heavens Tear wrote: »

I disagree with a lot of his predictions for just not making sense and flawed logic in his reasoning for some of his predictions.

explain.

10char

Livedeath - Heavens Tear · June 2009

As said before Radiance cant win all 3 guilds attacking. Numbers just arent there. Rad will misplay at least 2 of them and lose 2 lands. Roadkill, Enlighten, and Evolution are not pushovers compared to Rad's current strength.
Triad v Enrage 1v1 will be a good battle. Victor will be surprising.

Triad not attacking Arch while 2 other guilds are attacking is smart on their part. Make it harder for us to decide which territories to defend.

But I must be talking to much and dont want to give away Enrage plans.

Astarielle - Heavens Tear · June 2009

Thanks for taking up from Hisui's posts, very helpful when at work!

But as Wilxzen and SgtSlaughter point out, timing is key - when triple attacked defending resources must be allocated judiciously. This applies to Enrage now, as well as Radiance and Evolution every week for the past months. This is a key part of the game as attacks are grouped by the system.

It would be great if you could predict which will be fully/partly/not defended, and why

Krasava - Heavens Tear · June 2009

First off, good job on predictions! I like the format.
Color coding FTW.

However, i will echo some of the disagreements already posted above, as to the predicted outcomes of the battles.

Radiance is poised to lose at least one land.
And depending on how much bleeding of high level players Evo has sustained, Rad may lose 2 lands.

Also, judging by somewhat disappointing performance by Enrage last week, they may lose 2 lands.
Although this time it won't come as a shocker to me.

If all three Enrage attackers share same time slot, then --> b:surrender.

The only hope for Enrage is good attendance.
Hopefully enough Enrage peeps got upset about last week's embarrasment to show up for a fight this week, fired up to kick some ****.

However, if only 120 people log in for the TW's again, good luck. b:bye

Neither of the 3 attackers can be taken lightly. If you're understaffed for any of these, then it's just a matter of how quickly your crystal gets popped.
Perhaps Tao can do it in 8 minutes this time? b:chuckle

Onlyjayy - Heavens Tear · June 2009

Man! Why did knights have to attack first! I mean, that mean s that all rad members online would be defending the land from us right? Radiance WILL lose at least 1 land, and I doubt it would be the one we would be attacking for.

I read livedeath's post and I do agree, knights would have around 40 people ranging from lvl 39 to 80s. And I'm pretty sure the other attacking factions have the same amount of people.

We'll get pummeled.

Im in knights btwb:victoryb:laugh

Konariraiden - Heavens Tear · June 2009

Hehe, now that I look back at my predictions, I guess attendance was the one thing I hadn't thought about...my bad. ~.^ I appreciate all of the posts/criticisms, and I'll be sure to keep honing my skills and getting better and better.

Okay, so besides the obviously flawed logic in my victory predictions, anythin' else I should work on? ^_^

Cy_clone - Heavens Tear · June 2009

getting better Konari

Crazydan - Heavens Tear · June 2009

SgtSIaughter - Heavens Tear wrote: »
I'm willing to put my money on Enlighten and/or RK taking a land off Rad's hands this week.

Rad may have stopped the bleeding but lets have a numbers rundown.
Faction members: ~200
Attendance     : 60%+
Members per TW : 80
Concurrent TW's: 3
IF(and this is a big if) Rad has close to the max of 200.
200 members divided by 3 = 66 per TW

(The following is stated without having any knowledge of the Rad member count or roster)

But using the common knowledge that you will have a 100% showing.
200/.6= 120 Members online IF they are at max

Since Evo is most definitely going to send close to 80, anything less than 80(or close to it) from Rad might prove an upset win going to Evo and cause Rad's past wound to open yet again.

70~80 to Evo leaves 40(if they are lucky) to attend the RK/Enlighten gank.

Enlighten attacking Radiance
Victor: Enlighten

RoadKill attacking Radiance
Victor: RoadKill

Evolution attacking Radiance
Victor: Radiance

U of so little faith Rad doesnt need extreme numbers to defend all 3 lands look at it this way.

120 for 3 TWs u can send 60 to evo to hold them off which should be more then enough then u can 30 to each RK and Enlighten which also should be more then enough. OR we can rush RK since they r the first fight so take them out in 12 mins or so then bring the RK fighters to evo and Enlighten.

Its not about numbers its about teamwork and about using brains and thinking ahead something Enrage should try since their great plan has left them open to get ganked every which way. This weekend will show Rad isnt the pushover u think we r b:angry. Now give me a kiss b:cute

SgtSIaughter - Heavens Tear · June 2009

Crazydan - Heavens Tear wrote: »

U of so little faith Rad doesnt need extreme numbers to defend all 3 lands look at it this way.

120 for 3 TWs u can send 60 to evo to hold them off which should be more then enough then u can 30 to each RK and Enlighten which also should be more then enough. OR we can rush RK since they r the first fight so take them out in 12 mins or so then bring the RK fighters to evo and Enlighten.

Its not about numbers its about teamwork and about using brains and thinking ahead something Enrage should try since their great plan has left them open to get ganked every which way. This weekend will show Rad isnt the pushover u think we r b:angry. Now give me a kiss b:cute

We touch every faction, how would any plan keep us from getting teamed up on?

Also what makes you think Enlighten/RK is such a pushover u can roll with 30ea? Spend 12 minutes @ RK to roll them quickly will mean Rad will be playing Evo without a goalie for 6 minutes, more than enough time to get catas batt ruping ur HQ.

Crazydan - Heavens Tear · June 2009

SgtSIaughter - Heavens Tear wrote: »

We touch every faction, how would any plan keep us from getting teamed up on?

Also what makes you think Enlighten/RK is such a pushover u can roll with 30ea? Spend 12 minutes @ RK to roll them quickly will mean Rad will be playing Evo without a goalie for 6 minutes, more than enough time to get catas batt ruping ur HQ.

Didnt say leave Evo undefended meant send a good number to RK to kill them ASAP and send enough to Evo and ENlighten to hold them off.

Well cant do anything now cause Enrage land is Spread across the whole map so leaves u open to attack by every faction on the map. It shows that 1 no thought came into what lands to take in the long term when Enrage started taking land or 2 Enrage was just too c0cky and now looks forward to getting ganked every week sounds like a blast for u

Lleela - Heavens Tear · June 2009

Certainly defending 3 lands in same time slot will put stress on any factions roster.

During last week Rad v Evo battle, we waited for Evo to finish other 2 fights prior to engaging them, this ensured a good competitive TW for both sides. I don't anticipate anyone will be giving Radiance, nor Enrage that kind of consideration.

Actions speak louder than words, for all the talk about competition and fair playing fields, Heavens Tear weekly TW map for some time now appears to be one gankfest after another. I am not a fan of how the TW system loads up 1 time slot before spreading the fights over multiple days.

Good luck to all factions this week, may your wins be earned, and your losses be hard fought.

***
p.s. so want to call out a couple factions for cross talk TW bid planning... i.e. help us attack x faction in the same week. Grow some and try to win one without relying on others to distract your target so you can go for sucker punch...

Krasava - Heavens Tear · June 2009

Lleela - Heavens Tear wrote: »

***
p.s. so want to call out a couple factions for cross talk TW bid planning... i.e. help us attack x faction in the same week. Grow some and try to win one without relying on others to distract your target so you can go for sucker punch...

b:chuckle

Do you realize that Radiance fits in that suspicion of yours very nicely? O_o

I mean, c'mon! Alianza and Knights? Both with 20+ mil refund?
Why would they undertake this wasteful suicidal task of attacking Evo?
They prolly have to farm for DAYS just to get the bid money! :P

Clearly they can pose no more than a nuisance to Evo.
A distraction that is just long enough for Rad to easily gain an upper hand.

I'm NOT saying that's how it really is.

But your insinuation is a wee bit ridiculous, and i'm pointing out the fact that your own faction can be easily thought of orchestrating the scenario that you are proposing.
b:bye

Nubble - Heavens Tear · June 2009

enrage got what they begged....i remember rage members posts where they beg whole server to attack them and in the end they dont have enough ppl for even 2 TWs

SgtSIaughter - Heavens Tear · June 2009

Nubble - Heavens Tear wrote: »

enrage got what they begged....i remember rage members posts where they beg whole server to attack them and in the end they dont have enough ppl for even 2 TWs

Screenshot or stfu dip**** troll

Nubble - Heavens Tear · June 2009

Defected - Heavens Tear wrote: »

I just wanted to say SHAME ON YOU HT.

Stop being afraid to attack a guild just because they have more than 1 land. You guilds constantly spamming WC with "recruiting for TW/TT/ETC" need to stop spamming that if you're never going to TW.

What you smaller factions need to do is TALK to eachother. COORDINATE.

If you can get a small "alliance," you can agree to all gang up on 1 particular faction. Someone is bound to get on the map if 5 or 6 of you attack.

So defected is going to school you on your options.

1) Everyone attack Enrage.
The scum of HT.

Cat - Heavens Tear wrote: »

BID ON ENRAGE PLEASE! THE ENRAGE GUILD IS BEGGING YOU TO BID ON US!!

do i need quote more ?

Konariraiden - Heavens Tear · June 2009

Nubble - Heavens Tear wrote: »

do i need quote more ?

Have to admit, I remember those threads... ^^;;

SgtSIaughter - Heavens Tear · June 2009

Nubble - Heavens Tear wrote: »

do i need quote more ?

Lol sad sad little man, to think I was able to get you to dig up 2 month old posts.

+1 for me.

Nubble - Heavens Tear · June 2009

SgtSIaughter - Heavens Tear wrote: »

Lol sad sad little man, to think I was able to get you to dig up 2 month old posts.

+1 for me.

it wasnt hard to find just clicked defected's name and boom so -1 for u and +1 for me ^^

SgtSIaughter - Heavens Tear · June 2009

Nubble - Heavens Tear wrote: »

it wasnt hard to find just clicked defected's name and boom so -1 for u and +1 for me ^^

Nothing goes "boom" when I click his name.
Getting you to dig up and quote +1 to me.
Downplaying it -1 to you.
Being an archer -10.

Konariraiden - Heavens Tear · June 2009

Alright, alright...that's enough of that. ~.^ Take it somewhere's else, this place for Faction chest-beating only, not self chest-beating and e-peen flashing.

Kazue - Heavens Tear · June 2009

sigh... this is a sad replacement for the orginal predictions.

Konariraiden - Heavens Tear · June 2009

Kazue - Heavens Tear wrote: »

sigh... this is a sad replacement for the orginal predictions.

Love 'em or hate 'em (even Hisui approved of my posts), I'm here to stay!

...least 'till Hisui comes back...he better...

Rifkind - Heavens Tear · June 2009

Nubble - Heavens Tear wrote: »

enrage got what they begged....i remember rage members posts where they beg whole server to attack them and in the end they dont have enough ppl for even 2 TWs

Yup, we got what we wanted, and we're having fun with it. Thanks all! Finally our members are no longer bored at TW time. Too bad so many of y'all are still unclear on the concept...

TW Predictions: 06/19/09 -- 06/20/09

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