Is cube really random?

dregenfox
dregenfox Posts: 713 Arc User
edited April 2009 in General Discussion
So in the last 3 weeks of doing the cube of fate I've run a tally of all the rooms I've gotten, out of 20 runs in the cube I was only able to reach rooms 40-50 12 times. The other 8 times I either got stuck in pk rooms multiple times, or otherwise died before room 40. For char data I'm a lvl 79 MG w/ ~2.2k hp, and ~3000 phys. def self buffed.

So here's my tally of the rooms I get after hitting 40+

rooms:

40: 0
41: 4
42: 1
43: 3
44: 1
45: 6
46: 2
47: 8
48: 2
49: 2
50: 4

I'll be collecting more data as the days pass, since this isn't nearly a large enough sample to base anything on. But it sure does seem favored to rooms where you have to spend the most amount of money :( Out of 12 trips to rooms 40+ I was only able to complete the cube 4 times, mainly due to room 47. I think the killer is that once you hit room 45, it only goes from 45-50, so now you have a 40% chance to land either room 46 or 47, instead of what you would think, a 1/3 chance. Might be better if a roll of 6 would just result in room 50, right now I think it just becomes a 5-sided die instead of 6.
Post edited by dregenfox on

Comments

  • OMGLAZERZ - Heavens Tear
    OMGLAZERZ - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,327 Arc User
    edited April 2009
    In order to complete the cube, don't you have to do all of the rooms, or just room 50?
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Peritia - Lost City
    Peritia - Lost City Posts: 397 Arc User
    edited April 2009
    OMGLAZERZ - Heavens Tear wrote: »
    In order to complete the cube, don't you have to do all of the rooms, or just room 50?

    Just need to make it to 50.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • mbrunestud
    mbrunestud Posts: 0 Arc User
    edited April 2009
    lol i've gotten open sesame every time that i can remember. so annoying
  • Aneemah - Heavens Tear
    Aneemah - Heavens Tear Posts: 229 Arc User
    edited April 2009
    dregenfox wrote: »
    So in the last 3 weeks of doing the cube of fate I've run a tally of all the rooms I've gotten, out of 20 runs in the cube I was only able to reach rooms 40-50 12 times. The other 8 times I either got stuck in pk rooms multiple times, or otherwise died before room 40. For char data I'm a lvl 79 MG w/ ~2.2k hp, and ~3000 phys. def self buffed.

    So here's my tally of the rooms I get after hitting 40+

    rooms:

    40: 0
    41: 4
    42: 1
    43: 3
    44: 1
    45: 6
    46: 2
    47: 8
    48: 2
    49: 2
    50: 4

    I'll be collecting more data as the days pass, since this isn't nearly a large enough sample to base anything on. But it sure does seem favored to rooms where you have to spend the most amount of money :( Out of 12 trips to rooms 40+ I was only able to complete the cube 4 times, mainly due to room 47. I think the killer is that once you hit room 45, it only goes from 45-50, so now you have a 40% chance to land either room 46 or 47, instead of what you would think, a 1/3 chance. Might be better if a roll of 6 would just result in room 50, right now I think it just becomes a 5-sided die instead of 6.

    like anything else that is created by humans instead of nature, the randomization will always turn to be a complex polynom with a "fixed" period, that results in, more or less, repeatable values, thus "true" randomness is quite achievable now, "and the favoring" element is as true as your mind lets you believe so...
  • Fallenangelx - Heavens Tear
    Fallenangelx - Heavens Tear Posts: 182 Arc User
    edited April 2009
    i'm fine with all the rooms except for the stupid pk rooms, i sit there till timer is up and noone comes in b:sad. o, i also hate the listen ex and count the apples ex room...
  • Snuggles - Heavens Tear
    Snuggles - Heavens Tear Posts: 47 Arc User
    edited April 2009
    The killer is 44-45. Bomb room to Open Sesame just stinks b:surrender

    As far as random goes, over the course of a few months of doing cube every day, I would say it is random, but no numbers to back it up.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Maiya - Lost City
    Maiya - Lost City Posts: 2,686 Arc User
    edited April 2009
    Snuggles - Heavens Tear wrote: »
    The killer is 44-45. Bomb room to Open Sesame just stinks b:surrender.

    Agreed. Thankfully I warped straight to 50 after 45.

    I'm not sure of the percentages, but once you get to the last numbers, I've always noticed that I don't get any higher dice numbers.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973
    Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973 Posts: 7,881 Arc User
    edited April 2009
    You can actually see the probabilities in the database.
    Look at the quests that use a dice ticket or puzzle cube to see them:
    http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/items/18933

    For instance here is the roll for room 46:
    http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/quest/10288

    So yeah, the dice turns into a 4 sided die in 46
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    Refining Simulator - aster.ohmydays.net/pw/refiningsimulator.html (don't use IE)
    Genie Calculator - aster.ohmydays.net/pw/geniecalculator.html - (don't use IE)
    Socket Calculator - aster.ohmydays.net/pw/socketcalculator.html
  • Tryagain - Harshlands
    Tryagain - Harshlands Posts: 716 Arc User
    edited April 2009
    I haven't had too much issue with 40-50, however, I hit room 34 (PvP room) about 95% of the time.
  • Starrr - Harshlands
    Starrr - Harshlands Posts: 229 Arc User
    edited April 2009
    Snuggles - Heavens Tear wrote: »
    The killer is 44-45. Bomb room to Open Sesame just stinks b:surrender

    As far as random goes, over the course of a few months of doing cube every day, I would say it is random, but no numbers to back it up.



    44-45 is no problem i can finish 45 in a little over 4 minutes. the only rooms i hate are 14 34 38 47. dont like them damn bugs running around in the hand room and not enough hp to survive 800 damage hits in 47.
    Staring at the wall is much more rewarding than playing PW.
  • OMGLAZERZ - Heavens Tear
    OMGLAZERZ - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,327 Arc User
    edited April 2009
    Asterelle - Sanctuary wrote: »
    You can actually see the probabilities in the database.
    Look at the quests that use a dice ticket or puzzle cube to see them:
    http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/items/18933

    For instance here is the roll for room 46:
    http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/quest/10288

    So yeah, the dice turns into a 4 sided die in 46

    The Cube of Fate seems like a board game, from the looks of it, where you move forward using die rolls, and the rooms are the squares that make up the path the players move their pieces through. If this is the case, then you cannot actually look at the number of times you've gotten into different rooms, and determine anything from that since the probabilities for the die rolls are not all the same (weighted die), and each die roll for the previous 6 rooms would have had slightly different chances to get the player into that room, technically.


    Most of the rooms have two "sides" that are either 17% or 18% and four sides that are either 16.5% or 16%. Room 46 uses a four sided die with the numbers one and two having a 26% chance each to come up and the remaining two having 24% chance each to come up.


    Has anyone ever gone backwards in the Cube?
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Surfer_Rosa - Sanctuary
    Surfer_Rosa - Sanctuary Posts: 227 Arc User
    edited April 2009
    OMGLAZERZ - Heavens Tear wrote: »


    Has anyone ever gone backwards in the Cube?
    Yup, when you die... b:sad
  • Kiralia - Sanctuary
    Kiralia - Sanctuary Posts: 76 Arc User
    edited April 2009
    Not the whole way backwards, that isn't possible, but there are certain rooms where you either get to move forwards or have to move backwards just for that turn.
  • OMGLAZERZ - Heavens Tear
    OMGLAZERZ - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,327 Arc User
    edited April 2009
    Kiralia - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Not the whole way backwards, that isn't possible, but there are certain rooms where you either get to move forwards or have to move backwards just for that turn.

    http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/search


    With the Judgement Marks?
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Kiralia - Sanctuary
    Kiralia - Sanctuary Posts: 76 Arc User
    edited April 2009
    Yes with the judgement marks.
  • Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973
    Asterelle - Sanctuary_1381265973 Posts: 7,881 Arc User
    edited April 2009
    Those Choices of Fate rooms are like rolling a 2 sided die...
    Life takes you forward and death back.

    There are 3 rooms like that I think
    http://www.pwdatabase.com/pwi/quest/10256

    The worst is 35 where if you go back you're in a jail room and if you go forward you are in squad of 6 (which costs 10 tickets).
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    Refining Simulator - aster.ohmydays.net/pw/refiningsimulator.html (don't use IE)
    Genie Calculator - aster.ohmydays.net/pw/geniecalculator.html - (don't use IE)
    Socket Calculator - aster.ohmydays.net/pw/socketcalculator.html
  • Foxx - Heavens Tear
    Foxx - Heavens Tear Posts: 464 Arc User
    edited April 2009
    I find the "choices" rooms usually send you back to the last jail.
    ie room 12 back to 11.
    room 35 back to 32. (This happens roughly 3/4 of the time)

    Ive completed the cube probably about 50 times so I cant believe this is just random fluctuation.

    I only have 2 killer rooms, thats 14 and 34 which Im pretty much a free kill to any other class. I dont even bother wasting my time waiting for people here.

    38 I can usually get past, and 47 I just make it through with the aid of a few alchemy things and Jiaozi's.

    One time I played the cube through to room 60, but the rewards simply were not worth the cost or time. Only reason I can see to do this is to get to the merchant in room 60. Also the super mega devil you have to kill would be impossible for anything but a veno with herc, or maybe a very well equipped barb with a ton of self healing ability.
  • Zoe - Heavens Tear
    Zoe - Heavens Tear Posts: 3,814 Arc User
    edited April 2009
    I've done that devil room twice and even my herc has a hard time with it.
    Main characters
    Celestial Sage Venomancer Zoe - 100
    Sage Barbarian Malego - 91
  • CeliaZ - Sanctuary
    CeliaZ - Sanctuary Posts: 901 Arc User
    edited April 2009
    Little of-topic, but at what level can a proper geared pure int mage do the cube without alot trouble?
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Suiryujin - Sanctuary
    Suiryujin - Sanctuary Posts: 449 Arc User
    edited April 2009
    none of the room are really lvl dependant, the PK room is well..pk, go figure.
    the kill mobs room they provide mobs around ur lvl range 60-69 get lvl 65 mob, 70-79 get lvl75 mob etc
    as for the last stand room for surviving 100 seconds, u need 3k+ hp and hp charm+event food, probably rejuv pots and maybe 1-2 apoth items as backup.
    as long as u have over 3k hp and are fully prepared there isnt a room where the quest itself can kill u if u do it right, only other players can..

    oh yes, speaking of which, did anyone know that the open sesame rooms are....pk enabled? XD i almost killed another archer by accident in that room because itXD
    My body is made of swords.
    Iron is my blood, and glass is my heart.
    I have overcome countless battlefields undefeated,
    Without once retreating,
    Nor once being understood.
    Always alone, intoxicated with victory on the hill of swords.
    Therefore, there is no meaning to that life.
    Perhaps this body is nothing but a sword itself.
  • OMGLAZERZ - Heavens Tear
    OMGLAZERZ - Heavens Tear Posts: 2,327 Arc User
    edited April 2009
    Foxx - Heavens Tear wrote: »
    Ive completed the cube probably about 50 times so I cant believe this is just random fluctuation.

    The chance to get one or the other is 50-50. In your experience the Mark that sends you back might come up more often than the other one, but for someone else, they might get the Mark that sends them forward instead most of the time. Some might get an equal amount of both.

    What might seem as "fixed" really isn't when you look at the much bigger picture.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Ty - Heavens Tear
    Ty - Heavens Tear Posts: 604 Arc User
    edited April 2009
    CeliaZ - Sanctuary wrote: »
    Little of-topic, but at what level can a proper geared pure int mage do the cube without alot trouble?

    For Wizards you should have a good chance to finish the cube at any level. Problematic rooms are the 100 sec stand rooms because you'll have low HP, and the PK rooms because you can forget about kiting plus you're fodder for virtually any other class.

    Pretty much all the other rooms are luck. All the kill X mobs are level dependant but are tricky during 40-43, 50-53,60-63... and so on as the mobs are 45, 55, 65.... plus all but the room 4 or 5 mobs life steal.

    The take the demon down rooms should be passed directly. Until you're 90+ but even then I'd rather pay mirages than waste time + charms.

    Personally I would save my mirages until you're 90 as that's when you'll have the best chance to finish plus you'll get a page of fate as part of the quest reward (30 of those can be traded for a lvl 99 skill)
    I like pie

Categories