+1% Crit Arrow Myth

Llama - Lost City wrote: »

You have a limited understanding of odds and percentages. Even if you have 99% crit rate you can still not crit more than twice out of 2 attacks. Its a 3% chance per attack which means every attack you have a very small chance of critting.

I'm sorry, but who is this directed at?

In the top set, the % of crits rises quickly to ~6%, and then starts dropping to ~5% from about 1300 attacks in rising and falling but staying within a few tenths of a percentage of 5%. The top set was also done with both a Christmas Blessing and the Elite Wolf Fang arrows equipped for what would have been a 6% crit% which, as we can see, it clearly was not.


In the bottom set, the % of crits rises quickly to ~6% as well, and stays there with a initial drop at ~1800 attacks in to 5.4% before rising back to ~6% until 2400 attacks in at which point it starts dropping to 5% where it stayed within a few tenths of a percentage of 5%. The bottom set was done with just the Christmas Blessing for a 5% crit% which, as we can see, it clearly was.

To avoid confusion on the graphs as to why there are two lines (red and black).

Red line: % of successful attacks that were crits.

Black line: % of ALL attacks that were crits.


The red line is only important if the melee attack critical is only determined upon a successful attack which is, at this time, unknown. This is why I actually would have preferred doing this by casting spells, but auto-attacks render more data faster.

This also means that the bottom graph where it looks like it's sitting at 6% excessively long before dropping: it actually isn't if you follow the black line which is at ~5.7% and doesn't actually go back up to 6% after falling below that at ~1000 attacks in.



Mob: Rhinodrake Megalith
Number killed: ~625

Total attacks : 6058
Crits : 281
Misses : 293
Non-crits : 5484

Crit% of all attacks: 4.64%


Expected crit% : 6% (base 4%+Christmas Blessing+Elite Wolf Fang Arrow)

Difference: 1.36%



Mob: Frail Blob
Number killed: ~825
Crits: 387
Misses: 378
Non-Crits: 6774
Total 7539

Act Crit % 5.13

Expected Crit%: 5% (base 4% + Christmas Blessing)

MissEbil - Heavens Tear wrote: »

But the point stands:
1% isn't that much of a chance of a crit anyway.
PLUS: 1% Arrow = 1k, Blessing = around 2mil

Arrow > Blessing

Except the Arrow doesn't do anything without a bow equipped.


Don't you read the charts?


The top one was with BOTH the Elite Wolf Fang arrow equiped AND the Christmas Blessing Equipped.


The bottom one was with JUST the Christmas Blessing Equipped.


It follows logically that the arrow did not actually increase the chance to crit by 1% like the Christmas Bless did.

FYI, the base crit chance for my venomancer is 4%.

Christmas Blessing > Elite Wolf Fang arrow.


I'm sure I have data on that spread sheet detailing just the Elite Wolf Fang arrow equipped. Let me check really quick.


Here's the end numbers I had on the Elite Wolf Fang arrows, to clear this up.

I realize the total set sizes are not large, but it's what i have.

Crits : 118
Non-crit hits: 3352
Misses: 194
Total Attacks: 3664
Crit% 0.0322


So, with just the Elite Wolf Fang arrow equipped, she hit a 3.22% crit rate which is below her base crit rate of 4% and 1.78% below the 5% crit% showing on her character sheet.



So, without the Christmas Blessing on, and just the Elite Wolf Fang arrow, you can clearly see that it's not increasing the crit %.

In fact, I'd say it was driving it down to 3%.

Chart coming soon to a post near you. b:pleased

MissEbil - Heavens Tear wrote: »

The charts made my head hurt.

What I was trying to say, is I'm willing to waste 1-2k on an arrow on the CHANCE it might work. I can't afford a Blessing because people are... people, and greedy.

A chance it might work?


There is no chance it might work unless you have a bow equipped.


It's like carrying around a rabbit's foot because it's "good luck". It doesn't really bring good luck, just warm fuzzy feelings to make you feel better. Nothing more, nothing less.