Discussion Thread for Gold trading prices [PerfectFox Index]

Wwing - Heavens Tear
Wwing - Heavens Tear Posts: 116 Arc User
edited December 2008 in Etherblade (West)
This is another experimental project for Perfect World designed to analyze the development of PWI economy through gold exchange rate, a server at a time.

Calculation is done using this formula: http://pwifox.blogspot.com/2008/12/perfect-fox-index-formula-experimental.html


The current data (taken at 9:00 PM server time, daily)so far:
[high]/[low] sorted from the latest date on the top , December 3rd on the bottom.

118444.44 / 117007.54
118032.06 /115948.39
114550.00 / 102617.05
120165.17 / 119786.07
121786.23 /121361.49
129270.30 / 127277.53
120718.31 / 119661.75

As we can see that the price on December 4th was spiked up to 130k, possibly due to the event around that time. and recently, the price starts to be stabling as today around 118k.

TW doesn't seem to give a significant impact to the gold trading.

Also discuss on how to improve the calculation, I need help to develop better way to keep track of the economy development.
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News Project Fox in [][]http://pwifox.blogspot.com[][] Santa Claus is a lie.
12/17 2008 PerfectFox Index (Heavens Tear) : 1 gold = 113558.91~114972.42
Post edited by Wwing - Heavens Tear on

Comments

  • Bookman - Heavens Tear
    Bookman - Heavens Tear Posts: 165 Arc User
    edited December 2008
    looks like you messed up your axes. prices should be y, dates should be x. scale seems messed up on whatever you have for the y axis atm, the graph is difficult to interpret as is.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
  • Hisui - Heavens Tear
    Hisui - Heavens Tear Posts: 1,369 Arc User
    edited December 2008
    A poor bunny dies every time you don't label your axis.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    私の番ですよ。- Sig by Symour

    Check out ForsakenX 's sig thread O_O
    Enrage - We Eat.
  • Wwing - Heavens Tear
    Wwing - Heavens Tear Posts: 116 Arc User
    edited December 2008
    Bookman - Heavens Tear wrote: »
    looks like you messed up your axes. prices should be y, dates should be x. scale seems messed up on whatever you have for the y axis atm, the graph is difficult to interpret as is.

    that graphic shown is not price vs date , but rather taking the gold listings data to visually see the average price in a day.

    goldchartjz2.png
    Y = price of a gold
    X = date , december
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    News Project Fox in [][]http://pwifox.blogspot.com[][] Santa Claus is a lie.
    12/17 2008 PerfectFox Index (Heavens Tear) : 1 gold = 113558.91~114972.42
  • Wwing - Heavens Tear
    Wwing - Heavens Tear Posts: 116 Arc User
    edited December 2008
    For today, the gold index has dropped quite significant from 118k to 115k, a 3k down. It touches the same range as 7th December.

    TW declaration just started, but I don't think that it will affect the market that much.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    News Project Fox in [][]http://pwifox.blogspot.com[][] Santa Claus is a lie.
    12/17 2008 PerfectFox Index (Heavens Tear) : 1 gold = 113558.91~114972.42
  • andyboi
    andyboi Posts: 83 Arc User
    edited December 2008
    I don't know if you intended this thread to be a discussion of why gold prices drop/rise. But my thoughts are they are currently inflated by players who believe that after every tuesday (server reboot) there would be new items in the cash shop. So they take the opportunity to buy plenty of gold a day or two before maintenance, and then raise the prices right after maintenance. And since there wasn't any new addition to the cash shop this week, demand fell and prices went back down.

    Also, are you taking a weighted average? or just an average of the gold prices ignoring quantity? I can't seem to get to the page for your calculations.

    For example, if you have someoen buying 20 gold for 120k and 10 gold for 110k, the average is 115k, but the weighted average is (120*20 + 110*10) / (20+10) = 116.67k
  • Wwing - Heavens Tear
    Wwing - Heavens Tear Posts: 116 Arc User
    edited December 2008
    andyboi wrote: »
    Also, are you taking a weighted average? or just an average of the gold prices ignoring quantity? I can't seem to get to the page for your calculations.

    For example, if you have someoen buying 20 gold for 120k and 10 gold for 110k, the average is 115k, but the weighted average is (120*20 + 110*10) / (20+10) = 116.67k
    I put quantity into consideration. It's written in the formula.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]
    News Project Fox in [][]http://pwifox.blogspot.com[][] Santa Claus is a lie.
    12/17 2008 PerfectFox Index (Heavens Tear) : 1 gold = 113558.91~114972.42
  • jemima
    jemima Posts: 5 Arc User
    edited December 2008
    Wwing - Heavens Tear wrote: »
    that graphic shown is not price vs date , but rather taking the gold listings data to visually see the average price in a day.

    goldchartjz2.png
    Y = price of a gold
    X = date , december

    That graphic is good.

    The graph on the blog has the value of gold as the x axis though.


    Also, as regards using a weighted average, bulk purchases are generally cheaper, so using an average/gold will also emphasise the cheaper bulk prices.

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