As so many people cry horror about botting and the inflation it causes, i thought maybe its nice to try and have a look at what the coin balance actually looks like:Coins Generated
- BH rewards +24bil
- botting + 3 bil
- repair costs - 5 bil
- AH fee < -1bil
- NW fees -7.5 bil
Feel free to reply if there is something to add to the list or when you think my estimate for something is waaaay of. Please dont tell when you think its a little bit off or even quite a bit. We can never expect perfect answers, its all just guestimations. Also dont reply if you think its wrong but you have nothing to support the claim. If you come tell me for example how you checked WC and know exactly how many BH squads there were exactly, now that would make me very happy. Try to improve on my estimations and methods, not just cry that im an idiot and leave it at that. And please note, all is based on archosaur numbers. If you post your suggestions and i will fit them in the complete picture, i will probably translate your numbers to archosaur numbers.
Im gonna start with the easiest to estimate:NW fees
. there are about 600 participants each NW. All together they get about 100.000 tokens. (166 each on average). To convert tokens into SOWs, you pay 26k fee per token, converting them into raps/canies costs 10k per token. Other stuff is more expensive but probably relatively insignificant to these 2. Since more SOWs are made then raps/cannies, lets say the average fee is 20.000 per token.
On top of that comes the cost of turning about 1200 SOWs into gear at an average cost of about 1.5m per SOW.
So we get here 100k * 20k* + 1200 *1.5m. = 3.8b.
There are 2 NWs each weekend so we got a coinsink here for 7.5b per week.BH rewards
The other factors are unfortanately much harder to estimate. So im gonna have to start with a wild guess: I guess that 5000 toons do their daily BHs. This would mean 500 squads per day. Some of them are made in faction, most in WC. Since a day has 1440 minutes, that would make 1 squad every 4 minutes on average (more during prime time, less during off-time.)
There is 20% chance for 2mil and 5% chance for 5mil for an expected value of 650k per toon.
Total coin creation 5k * 650k = 3.25bil per day. or about 22bil per week. 2bil more is added on BH lunar days. so 24 total.Botting
This one will spawn controversy of course... And its hard for me to estimate what a bot makes per hour. I have botted a long time ago and seem to remember i made like 500k net per hour or so. But that included the market value of DQ items i think. So im gonna asume 300k for now in coin generation. I might set myself to botting for testing it sometime soon. Now to estimate the total weekly amount of botting hours. For that i just made a trip around the maps. I found 7 bots in Momagnon and 15.5 in Lothranis (the 0.5 was a stupid bot swimming in the lake b:chuckle). Morai was very hard to judge since it is full of players. Some of them pick up their drops, others dont, sometimes theres a bot picking them. All chaos. I think im gonna value morai at another 15 bots worth of coin generation. This bring us to 38 total, a few more on the high levels areas of the world map and primal maybe so lets say 60.
60 * 300k * 168h = 3 bil.AH fees
The gold part i can estimate somewhat. Im gonna guess about 2000 gold goes trough the AH per week. both the buyer and seller pay 2% so thats 4% on 6billion coins. This is just 240 mils and thus insignificant. The 5% fees on the item AH i doubt are going to be much more significant. Note that my 2000 gold estimate does not mean PWI only makes a puny 2000USD per server per week. The vast majority of CSing probable never goes trough the AH. I base my estimate on extensive personal experience with the AH gold market as a merchant.Repair cost
Those 5000 toons that are doing their BH and other stuff need to repair their toons. I myself pay about 0.5 - 1.0 m per day. Lets say 4m per week. But i am the top end extreme with my barb of course. So im gonna guestimate this to 1m per week per toon for 5 bil total.Conclusion:
Im not going to draw any conclusions. It was just to have a rough idea of what the total picture looks like.
Everything i write is from PvE perspective unless mentioned otherwise.