Snake Fortune Packs

Thrieya - Lost City
Thrieya - Lost City Posts: 732 Arc User
edited August 2013 in General Discussion
So after about a month of Snake Fortune Packs, as far as I know, we still don't have even a single Crown of Madness in-game. According to our database here, the hat has a 0.0002% chance of showing up from packs, which means 1 in every 5000 packs should give a Crown of Madness. Key word, of course, being should.

Yeah, 1 in 5000 sounds like a horribly long shot, but it's not like we've never beaten those odds before. In fact, according to the Genie Rarity Index, anyone who's made a 91+ LP genie has beaten those odds.

So with this in mind, let's all report in the amount of packs we've opened so far, so that we may calculate just how many packs we should've gotten by now, and rage over how we haven't, and doubt the existence of this hat.
Post edited by Thrieya - Lost City on

Comments

  • Jarkhen - Archosaur
    Jarkhen - Archosaur Posts: 990 Arc User
    edited August 2013
    Thrieya - Lost City wrote: »
    So after about a month of Snake Fortune Packs, as far as I know, we still don't have even a single Crown of Madness in-game. According to our database here, the hat has a 0.0002% chance of showing up from packs, which means 1 in every 5000 packs should give a Crown of Madness. Key word, of course, being should.

    Yeah, 1 in 5000 sounds like a horribly long shot, but it's not like we've never beaten those odds before. In fact, according to the Genie Rarity Index, anyone who's made a 91+ LP genie has beaten those odds.

    So with this in mind, let's all report in the amount of packs we've opened so far, so that we may calculate just how many packs we should've gotten by now, and rage over how we haven't, and doubt the existence of this hat.

    Actually, a 0.0002% chance is 1 in 500,000.

    Also, there are at least two of these hats on Archosaur.
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  • peckked
    peckked Posts: 224 Arc User
    edited August 2013
    Afraid you're off a decimal place. Odds of 0.0002% works out to be 1 in 500000.
  • Thrieya - Lost City
    Thrieya - Lost City Posts: 732 Arc User
    edited August 2013
    Jarkhen - Archosaur wrote: »
    Actually, a 0.0002% chance is 1 in 500,000.

    Also, there are at least two of these hats on Archosaur.

    Well, derp, knew I should've accounted for the percentage part of that. Anyway, original point stands. We've had a 100/100 LP genie before, and that's a 1 in 16 million chance. Existence of hats not proven unless links/pics are provided. Also I haven't seen anyone screaming in joy about it over the forums(yet).
  • tundrahag
    tundrahag Posts: 3 Arc User
    edited August 2013
    well ive opened about 1k on a low end and nothing 400 packs x2 every 2 weeks about average. my hubby the same amount i checked all the other servers and so far no one has it but 1 person but he was not on to link a confirmation on if the rumor was true or not. i just opened another batch of packs yesterday. and im tempted to say ** it and pass on packs again due to nothing seems to be coming from these packs but bite of arch. lol as if.i wouldnt mind if items actualy came in kinda good with these packs but in all honesty nothing seems to come but bites of arch/or taste of arch,emblems and best of luck tokens. and needless to say im really kinda disapointed on the amount of items from these packs it seems to be the lowest rate of all packs. i mean i know pwi is in trouble but fkn over your players and the ones who cash shop isnt gonna add up in the long run. but hey its my opin. right... as for me and my hubby and packs were not buying any more from here on out.b:bye
    Good luck to those who want to still try but i think its rigged to not drop in all honest. i dont think its ment to give you any thing at all but wepon fashions lol but like i said its my opin. lol
  • condo2009
    condo2009 Posts: 406 Arc User
    edited August 2013
    Jarkhen - Archosaur wrote: »
    Actually, a 0.0002% chance is 1 in 500,000.

    Also, there are at least two of these hats on Archosaur.

    nope, math is a lost skill I see. .0002=2 TEN THOUSANDS so odds are 1:10,000
  • Mayfly - Dreamweaver
    Mayfly - Dreamweaver Posts: 6,094 Arc User
    edited August 2013
    .0002% = .000002 = 1/500,000

    If you're going to disagree with someone on facts, get it right.
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  • PotatoHeadQR - Dreamweaver
    PotatoHeadQR - Dreamweaver Posts: 2,507 Arc User
    edited August 2013
    condo2009 wrote: »
    nope, math is a lost skill I see. .0002=2 TEN THOUSANDS so odds are 1:10,000

    pro sanity check: if you have a two and the only thing you do is divide 1/X then the result should have a five. it's 1:500,000 (and you can also google it XD)

    Thrieya - Lost City wrote: »
    Well, derp, knew I should've accounted for the percentage part of that. Anyway, original point stands. We've had a 100/100 LP genie before, and that's a 1 in 16 million chance. Existence of hats not proven unless links/pics are provided. Also I haven't seen anyone screaming in joy about it over the forums(yet).

    I don't see a link/pic of the 100/100 genie. the problem is that people have been making genies for 4 (?) years. probably way more genies are made in the last years (did someone say goons glitch?) while people have been opening packs for a month. there is a cool estimation somewhere of how many packs are opened based on the BLT duke shouts; i think the result is something like 75% to have a helm at the end of the month. in the end. having a 1:X chance to happen doesnt mean that it will happen after X.
    you only purge once #yopo
  • condo2009
    condo2009 Posts: 406 Arc User
    edited August 2013
    Mayfly - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    .0002% = .000002 = 1/500,000

    If you're going to disagree with someone on facts, get it right.

    was going by the .0002 which was originally stated.
  • PotatoHeadQR - Dreamweaver
    PotatoHeadQR - Dreamweaver Posts: 2,507 Arc User
    edited August 2013
    condo2009 wrote: »
    was going by the .0002 which was originally stated.

    even in that case, you were wrong.
    you only purge once #yopo
  • DeffyNature - Archosaur
    DeffyNature - Archosaur Posts: 1,400 Arc User
    edited August 2013
    But there were actually SSs in a different thread.
    Here's one http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/6729/ckm7.png
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  • MyMate - Dreamweaver
    MyMate - Dreamweaver Posts: 558 Arc User
    edited August 2013
    What I wanna know is if we got a Helm and a Cape from Frost Empress Kestra do that mean we will get 2x items from the rest of the 3 Empresses? b:sweat
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  • Wickedbrew - Raging Tide
    Wickedbrew - Raging Tide Posts: 856 Arc User
    edited August 2013
    MyMate - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    What I wanna know is if we got a Helm and a Cape from Frost Empress Kestra do that mean we will get 2x items from the rest of the 3 Empresses? b:sweat

    It means you bought some PWE manager a new beach house.
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  • nixop
    nixop Posts: 158 Arc User
    edited August 2013
    there is also one on DW
  • Valirah - Sanctuary
    Valirah - Sanctuary Posts: 522 Arc User
    edited August 2013
    condo2009 wrote: »
    nope, math is a lost skill I see. .0002=2 TEN THOUSANDS so odds are 1:10,000

    A lost art indeed....


    For the mathematically challenged such as yourself:

    0.0002% = 0.000002 (Percent is out of 100, so divide by 100 to get the actual chance)

    To find the odds of getting 1, divide by the chance, so 1/0.000002 which = 500000.

    So the odds are 1:500000, class dismissed.
  • TheUnderLord - Lost City
    TheUnderLord - Lost City Posts: 139 Arc User
    edited August 2013
    It exists... how do I become a PWE employee?!
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  • Thrieya - Lost City
    Thrieya - Lost City Posts: 732 Arc User
    edited August 2013
    Wickedbrew - Raging Tide wrote: »
    It means you bought some PWE manager a new beach house.

    Complete with outdoor and indoor hot tubs? On the East or West coast?
  • MyMate - Dreamweaver
    MyMate - Dreamweaver Posts: 558 Arc User
    edited August 2013
    Wickedbrew - Raging Tide wrote: »
    It means you bought some PWE manager a new beach house.

    I better get some % of the profit b:laugh
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  • Azura - Lost City
    Azura - Lost City Posts: 2,281 Arc User
    edited August 2013
    0 Packs opened
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  • Decus - Dreamweaver
    Decus - Dreamweaver Posts: 5,033 Arc User
    edited August 2013
    For the cost of acquiring the parts, that set bonus is such BS. :p
    Proving that not only archers do math since 2009. b:victory
    Current math challenge: pwi-forum.perfectworld.com/showthread.php?t=1029711&page=45
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  • Aeliah - Dreamweaver
    Aeliah - Dreamweaver Posts: 784 Arc User
    edited August 2013
    A mystic who appeared out of nowhere on west arch outskirts on Dreamweaver server a month ago and now has some really nice r9rr gear, has crown of madness helm. Name of mystic is Thicket, quite appropriately for a mystic, lucky name grab.
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  • Desdi - Sanctuary
    Desdi - Sanctuary Posts: 8,680 Arc User
    edited August 2013
    Decus - Dreamweaver wrote: »
    For the cost of acquiring the parts, that set bonus is such BS. :p

    Agreed. I don't really see the point in buying or keeping this helm.

    If your gear is maxed out it's probably the only thing left to get but otherwise you can just sell it to get yourself better gear or improve what you have.
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  • darknessofmy
    darknessofmy Posts: 164 Arc User
    edited August 2013
    dam cash player

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