Chance of upgrading - is it broken?

barq3t · December 2013

I just burned ~20 Green Wards on upgrading one dark enchant from 7 to 8. I know 25% doesn't mean extacly 1 on 4 try gonna be succes, but 20 failures in a row? Am I the only one with such a bad luck or is this thing broken...?

xelliz · December 2013

Honestly, 25% chance is pretty bad, so taking 20 tries sounds likely to me. Consider that I have seen skill nodes at 75% fail 4-6 times in a row many times.

rhoric · December 2013

Probably just bad luck. I had 3 failures at 90% so it is all luck really.

mconosrep · December 2013

barq3t wrote: »

I just burned ~20 Green Wards on upgrading one dark enchant from 7 to 8. I know 25% doesn't mean extacly 1 on 4 try gonna be succes, but 20 failures in a row? Am I the only one with such a bad luck or is this thing broken...?

Probability of that assuming UNRELATED (aka properly randomized) trials is ~0.3% so unlikely but not incredibly so ....

shadow5930 · December 2013

Something I have found to cut down on RNG hatin is to move. I'm not sure exactly what the seed is based on, however if you hop around a few times, then try again, it may help.

I've also done this with skill nodes and I've not gotten another 4 fail pattern since. I move between each fail. Anecotal at best, I know, however it is something that has worked for me.

jenisyde · December 2013

mconosrep wrote: »

Probability of that assuming UNRELATED (aka properly randomized) trials is ~0.3% so unlikely but not incredibly so ....

I had to do the math to see if you are right. High five!

mehguy138 · December 2013

I wish there was a bad streak protection, that would increase your chance of success each time you fail. Or even limit the number of possible fails in a row at a given percent chance. I used to fail 5+ times in a row at 40% chance pretty often.

bendalek · December 2013

From what I understand of computer based RNG's is that the engine has to set parameters at some point and freeze them, normally this would be at the start of the interaction I'm assuming, so the best thing to do is change the parametrizes so it has to reset the RNG, = Stop trying to upgrade - close the window - then re-open it ... Stop trying the skil node - move - try again ... Unless of course you are on a good luck run, the I say spam that muthr!

shadow5930 · December 2013

yay for psuedo-random systems!

... oh wait..

bendalek · December 2013

shadow5930 wrote: »

yay for psuedo-random systems!

... oh wait..

Yeah some reporter for a Game magazine did an in-depth (read: way to much math for me to understand) analysis of the new version of X-Com ... That game also supposedly has an RNG for shot/strike percentages, and it's designed to stop "save spamming". The end result is that it's impossible for a computer to make an actual random number generator, they can make them exceedingly complicated so that they simulate random numbers to a casual observer, but it isn't really random ...

I'm not sure how it was implemented in NWO, but sometimes it just seems like the game has it in for you ... I like the idea of increasing the probability the more times you roll, but it would still need to be tightly controlled to stop 'spamming'

gildren0 · December 2013

Hi folks,

I am wondering if anyone else is feeling the same way when it comes to the buying of marks etc to upgrade common enchantments with AD? To me it seems like a pointless waste of a resource that is difficult to hold on to in the first place.

In just trying to take an enchantment from level 5 to level 6 I've already spent 50,000 AD in two Marks and two failures. With a success rate of 40%, throwing another 25,000 Astral Diamonds at it seems at best foolish. So maybe i should use a Coalescent Ward. right? Well I can buy one with real life cash via Trade Bars (ugh) or I can try to get one once every seven days if my real life schedule lets me log in at the same time (that ends up being about one Coalescent Ward a month if I am lucky) or I can spend 130,000 Astral Diamonds at the Tarmalune Trade House.

Hmm.. 130,000 plus 25,000 = 155,000 Astral Diamonds to upgrade and enchantment from 5 to 6...

To me, that is a total waste of AD.

Before, I would consider spending 100k AD to buy a Coalescent Ward to upgrade weapon or armor enhancement slot and that was a big deal that felt like it made a real difference to my character. But spending 130,000 AD to create a rank 6 enchantment is silly, particularly when I could buy on on the market for as low as 10,000 AD.

Does anyone else feel this way? Are the success rates for upgrading enchantment too low? Should Marks drop more frequently? Should Marks cost gold instead of AD?

To me it just seems like something needs to change...

zebular · December 2013

gildren0 wrote: »

Hi folks,

I am wondering if anyone else is feeling the same way when it comes to the buying of marks etc to upgrade common enchantments with AD? To me it seems like a pointless waste of a resource that is difficult to hold on to in the first place.

In just trying to take an enchantment from level 5 to level 6 I've already spent 50,000 AD in two Marks and two failures. With a success rate of 40%, throwing another 25,000 Astral Diamonds at it seems at best foolish. So maybe i should use a Coalescent Ward. right? Well I can buy one with real life cash via Trade Bars (ugh) or I can try to get one once every seven days if my real life schedule lets me log in at the same time (that ends up being about one Coalescent Ward a month if I am lucky) or I can spend 130,000 Astral Diamonds at the Tarmalune Trade House.

Hmm.. 130,000 plus 25,000 = 155,000 Astral Diamonds to upgrade and enchantment from 5 to 6...

To me, that is a total waste of AD.

Before, I would consider spending 100k AD to buy a Coalescent Ward to upgrade weapon or armor enhancement slot and that was a big deal that felt like it made a real difference to my character. But spending 130,000 AD to create a rank 6 enchantment is silly, particularly when I could buy on on the market for as low as 10,000 AD.

Does anyone else feel this way? Are the success rates for upgrading enchantment too low? Should Marks drop more frequently? Should Marks cost gold instead of AD?

To me it just seems like something needs to change...

. . . . . I've yet to buy any marks to do my upgrades. I get them from running dungeons and collecting them from loot nodes and chests in level 60 areas. I get a lot of Preservation Wards from my Coffers of Wondrous Augmentation and I've gotten four Coalescent Wards from them since Module 2, having 15 characters that pray each day.

. . . . . Using Coalescent Wards is a huge waste as well, on any non-weapon or non-armor enchantment. Use preservation wards instead and save the Coalescent Wards for Weapon and Armor Enchantments. The Wards for sale for AD are there for the impatient or those who don't have the time to gather the Marks from regular game-play.

paranoidgnome · December 2013

The system currently requires one to keep a stack of Preservation Wards on hand for almost all upgrades.

mconosrep · December 2013

Basically you have to use Green Preservation wards as they work out cheaper than Coal wards for anything other than the 1% chance for weapon/armour enchantments.

Also note that rank 5 and even 6s can sometimes be got off the AH for less than that of the necessary upgrades.

gdante7111111 · December 2013

use a coalesant ward it makes it 100% upgraded

melodywhr · December 2013

gdante7111111 wrote: »

use a coalesant ward it makes it 100% upgraded

while this is true, it is a waste of a resource to use a coalescent ward on upgrading enchantments/runestones because they are far more valuable then preservation wards and ~3x more expensive. you should only use coalescent wards on weapon and armor enhancement upgrades (soulforged, vorpal, etc)

for the less than the price of one coal ward based on current low-end auction house prices, you can purchase 30 preservation wards. and if you are buying blue and purple marks, you are going to want to protect your investment. for a pack of 10 preservation wards from the zen shop, that's around 40k AD based on current exchange rates. that's ten chances of failure. and ten times that you won't have to re-purchase marks because you didn't protect your investment. a coal ward is currently priced around 140k on the auction house.

you have to use the system as it was intended to your advantage. if you don't you could be wasting a lot of resources and AD.

sternerr · December 2013

barq3t wrote: »

I just burned ~20 Green Wards on upgrading one dark enchant from 7 to 8. I know 25% doesn't mean extacly 1 on 4 try gonna be succes, but 20 failures in a row? Am I the only one with such a bad luck or is this thing broken...?

This definetely shouldn't happen, chance for failing 20 times in a row is 0.75^(20+1)=0.2%. I'm sure there is a bug somewhere in network code that renders any chance which is not 100% to fail when looting skill nodes, probably the same bug can activate with refinement.

zebular · December 2013

sternerr wrote: »

This definetely shouldn't happen, chance for failing 20 times in a row is 0.75^(20+1)=0.2%. I'm sure there is a bug somewhere in network code that renders any chance which is not 100% to fail when looting skill nodes, probably the same bug can activate with refinement.

. . . . It if were an over-all percentage, which it is not. The percentage takes into account the one time only and not previous or future attempts. It is a percentage chance each time, not an over-all percentage.

Chance of upgrading - is it broken?

Comments