ZAX - Duration Testing

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  • sharleenaa
    sharleenaa Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 16 Arc User
    edited November 2021
    Listing from 03/09 came through on 11/18

    5x5K Zen between 1:06 pm and 5:05 pm GMT
  • blargskull
    blargskull Member Posts: 513 Arc User

    Order from 9 Mar 2021 — got today 17 Nov 2021. It looks like zax got a good speed up last days, probably because of unbind tokens introduction and (as result) lots of new gear on AH.

    Maybe, and we are also at the end of the "bonding stones" aftershock for the Zax, entering a more usual "yellow" period.

    ZaxGraph
    I just noticed the title on your chart is "Evolution of ZAX" how long before it develops lungs? :trollface:

    That is a lot of work you and @hotfrostworm have poured into this project. You are both real good at this sort of thing. My next project is sending a dolphin to Mars, I have the DIY spacecraft on eBay and I am still looking for the dolphin... do you think the both of you can project the needed tuna and project the flight path for 2022 launch window?

    Thanks!

    Just killing time...
  • tchefi#6735
    tchefi#6735 Member Posts: 359 Arc User
    edited November 2021

    My next project is sending a dolphin to Mars, I have the DIY spacecraft on eBay and I am still looking for the dolphin... do you think the both of you can project the needed tuna and project the flight path for 2022 launch window?

    I'm pretty good at planning gravity-assisted trajectories to save some dV on Kerbal Space Program. I guess I can help with your project, if you don't mind having a lost in space vs success ratio at around 50% for your dolphin. :P
  • handofhenson
    handofhenson Member Posts: 7 Arc User
    One more data point

    listed
    09Mar21 21:40:18 GMT 3028 zen
    bought
    19Nov21 03:20:00 GMT 2720 zen
    19Nov21 03:02:55 GMT 93 zen
    19Nov21 02:58:15 GMT 215 zen
  • hotfrostworm
    hotfrostworm Member Posts: 446 Arc User

    My next project is sending a dolphin to Mars, I have the DIY spacecraft on eBay and I am still looking for the dolphin... do you think the both of you can project the needed tuna and project the flight path for 2022 launch window?

    I'm pretty good at planning gravity-assisted trajectories to save some dV on Kerbal Space Program. I guess I can help with your project, if you don't mind having a lost in space vs success ratio at around 50% for your dolphin. :P
    I am not 100% sure what the Kerbal Space Program is exactly, assuming some kind of simulator. Back in early 90's, I had to make a compiled program in Pascal for an exam in college. I created a gravity simulator in CGA graphics. The user could enter number of bodies, then detail mass, position, and speed. The simulation was fun to watch the little dots slowly charge at each other, sling shot off the screen into space. Makes you think how awesome those guys at NASA were, they did it all with pocket calculators and slide-rulers back in the early 70's.
  • irene#2829
    irene#2829 Member Posts: 99 Arc User
    edited November 2021
    err..

    You guys know that if someone ever buy your AD with zen, they are making a huge loss?

    There are other items which is worth more in AH. So they would rather just buy from store -> sell in AH for more AD.

    Hence, Ad to Zen can work but you need to wait a long time for a beginner to actually buy it. Maybe for a very rich person who will just buy things randomly because there are millions of AD in the queue.

    If it happened once in many months, it means cryptic is getting a rich player once in many months. It's not about the system issue. You've been waiting for a rich player with cryptic all along. :p

    Suggestion is to increase max 750AD to 2000 more. It should be a competition where people are willing to sell more AD if they really wish to get something in the store. In this way things can be cheaper and accessible by all players. However it means lesser profit for Cryptic.
  • jules#6770
    jules#6770 Member Posts: 708 Arc User
    edited November 2021

    err..

    You guys know that if someone ever buy your AD with zen, they are making a huge loss?

    There are other items which is worth more in AH. So they would rather just buy from store -> sell in AH for more AD.

    Yes, yes we know
    This system always counted on people not caring for or understanding how the economy works. That's nothing new.
    - bye bye -
  • hotfrostworm
    hotfrostworm Member Posts: 446 Arc User
    edited November 2021
    @irene#2829 Yes, they are very aware of the major flaw or exploit of the exchange. If you read the beginning of the thread, my neighbor Mr. Blargskull started this thread as a joke being a nasty individual. But he actually did post and receive his 10 zen - February 26th to October 26th. He was never in question about the exploit, but the wait exponential increase. This increase is still rising but seems to be constant as long as Cryptic doesn't throw buckets of AD at the users.

    According to my forecasting spreadsheet in my link below, if one invested any amount of Zen today, they will not receive the order until 2023. This renders the exchange a pointless exploit, unless you are willing to wait for a year or two. He is most active in Champions where there is no exploited exchange. The exchange works there because the paid currency Questionite is not linked to the auction. The auction in both of Cryptic's prior games; Champions Online and Star Trek Online utilize the gold currency equivalent to bid on items. To make matters worse, the vendors in Neverwinter now sell gold in their stores and that gold can be sold in the auction, making the exploit deep into the economy.

    My wife was playing since the alpha testing, she suggested back then, they should make the auction like STO and CO, but that didn't happen. Theory is Cryptic keeps the new players in the dark and knows most refuse to read the forums, or even ask in chat about Zen, AD, or gold. They are the ones you can see buying 1000 zen and spending it direct on the exchange. Otherwise tiny amounts often less than 100 are tossed into the exchange, probably by players who just don't care. The backlog benefits the direct sale of Zen and keeps the game "Free to Play" with a little grinding and a lot of waiting.

    As for increasing the amount from 750:1 to 2000:1, this has been done in the past. Both STO and CO are still at the 500:1 ratio and no backlog. When they increased it here the backlog dropped for 6 months but never left, only to resurge worse than ever before. I believe at least one Cryptic developer has openly admitted it was a huge mistake, currently they are attempting more AD sinks. I can only empathize with the current developers, as they are a "new group", the ones responsible for the mess left ages ago.

    I am here to test Linux, this thread is just a hobby for me, I seldom play any of the games I test to any degree. Online gaming is a massive waste of time. I get into plotting the fruitless endeavors of mankind. I hope that clears things up for you.
  • regenerde
    regenerde Member Posts: 2,993 Arc User
    edited November 2021
    Well, last time i checked STO had a 2m backlog, and CO is around 430 Questionite for 1 ZEN and seems to be crawling towards the limit these days. The Knox Box could have been the AD sink we actually need here, but they messed that up in more then one way...

    Btw. they increased the ZAX cap to 1000 on the russian server a while back, and i bet they're at a similar high backlog over there now too.

    And don't forget how they buffed the rAD box from the Neverwinter Siege, that one gives you 50k (up to 75k with bolster) AD now, and you'll get some nice rAD from the heroic encounters too.
    I do believe in killing the messenger...
    Want to know why?
    Because it sends a message!
  • mentinmindmaker
    mentinmindmaker Member Posts: 1,375 Arc User
    regenerde said:


    And don't forget how they buffed the rAD box from the Neverwinter Siege, that one gives you 50k (up to 75k with bolster) AD now, and you'll get some nice rAD from the heroic encounters too.

    Handing out RAD does not matter much, the 100k/day conversion to refined AD limit controls that.

    What really is hurting is that they are handling out refined AD in a few places now.

    The ZAX is being very efficiently shot down by people reselling Zen items for way more than what they get in the ZAX.
    As was mentioned above, only the ill-informed newbies will sell Zen on the ZAX today.

    The 8 months plus wait time for AD on the ZAX makes it sort of useless, patience is one thing but 8 months is way beyond patience :)

    I see only one way to save the ZAX, and that is removing the cap on it and let the market decide the exchange ratio by itself. That way at least Zen would be available to the F2P crowd without excessive wait. Alternatively, make the few essential items like character slots, bank space and VIP tradeable on AH. Then the F2P crowd will not need the ZAX but can exist in AD space only.

    It has been argued that the 1:750 exchange ratio keeps AH prices under control - but really: It only sets the lowest possible price. The market is selling most items way way higher - and those prices are set by the usual supply/demand. If Cryptic wanted to push the AH prices down they need to increase supply - for instance by reducing the Zen cost of the resold items.
  • blargskull
    blargskull Member Posts: 513 Arc User
    edited November 2021
    The big change over from the old game - mods 1 to 20 - to this new version mod 21 Jewel of the North has been a real gut buster. Also back a year ago, the wait period even for a 40 million backlog wasn't more than a month or maybe six weeks? Star Trek having a backlog of 2 million is really nothing, I will check with some people there to find out if they need to even wait more than a week for zen.

    The old exploit is:
    1. Get zen
    2. Buy something in the zen store to resell for AD
    3. Reinvest AD in Exchange and repeat

    Users learned this day one and keep snowballing it. This can't be done in the other two games to this degree, you really need the gold currency and that can only be obtained from clearing out mobs and doing real quests. Another thing I will mention, the AD store in this game is a poor joke by comparison to the Questionite store I use in Champions.

    BTW I am not a nasty person, I am just slightly more evil than most. :trollface:

    New info: I can confirm the following, dilithium exchange is backlogged almost a full 3 million. I did not get any firm answer on how long the wait is on Star Trek, but they told me it has only been backlogged since they started dumping refined dilthium on the players last summer.

    Meanwhile on Champions there is no backlog, people are waiting to sell their zen for questionite at 1:470 and questionite is only being offered at 430:1 to the zen sellers. As long as users stand their ground the balance will remain in check.
    Post edited by blargskull on

    Just killing time...
  • kozi001
    kozi001 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 876 Arc User
    Over 7 months.
  • blargskull
    blargskull Member Posts: 513 Arc User
    kozi001 said:

    Over 7 months.

    If you look at the spreadsheet, you can get some idea when your zen will arrive. For instance, if you posted 7 months ago on the first of May, the current estimated date of your transaction is March 18th of next year. Only 4 more months to go.

    Just killing time...
  • regenerde
    regenerde Member Posts: 2,993 Arc User
    edited December 2021
    Well, when everyone can hit the AD refining cap pretty easy, it will pump more AD into the game, so i'd say it actually does matter... especially when you can run several accounts at the same time through the daily Siege quests until you have enough tokens for that rAD box.

    And how exactly is removing the cap from the ZAX going to do any good for the game, when there's so much AD from exploits still floating around in game, or what about the AD that can be produced through other means then just refining rAD?
    Aside from bringing a whole swarm of "Gold Sellers" back into the game, a new players would probably never see any meaningful amounts of ZEN from the ZAX, because by the time he might have gathered enough for buying a handful of it, the price would probably have gone up again and it would be out of reach again.

    And sure, the whole cycle of reselling ZEN shop items for AD and reinvesting that AD into the ZAX has done it's part, but let's not forget that Cryptic did their fair share of HAMSTER that lead to this situation too:
    + there's no customer support beside the "We can't help you, but please keep spending money here, thank you." replies,
    + ZEN charge promotions have lost their extra goodies over time, and were never running smoothly from start to finish,
    + the massive disrespect from Cryptic towards players investment of time and money,
    any surprise that more then enough players said "Ok, i'lll stick around for a while, but i'm done spending money here."?

    Anyway, one more thing to keep in mind, CO and STO have Lifetime Subscriptions (got one in each game) that give you ZEN every month, that might explain why there's still more ZEN to go around for their Exchanges. The backlog in STO is currently above 3m, placed a listing today, have to wait and see when it goes through.
    I do believe in killing the messenger...
    Want to know why?
    Because it sends a message!
  • blargskull
    blargskull Member Posts: 513 Arc User
    regenerde said:


    Anyway, one more thing to keep in mind, CO and STO have Lifetime Subscriptions (got one in each game) that give you ZEN every month, that might explain why there's still more ZEN to go around for their Exchanges. The backlog in STO is currently above 3m, placed a listing today, have to wait and see when it goes through.

    I was thinking about doing the 10 zen thing over there in STO, be sure to let us know, I am betting it is probably only a week or two.

    Meanwhile it suspiciously sounds like there was some blackroom hustle going on over there. Flood the STO market with refined dilithium to make the players buy more, it is cheaper than making new stuff to sell them. :trollface:

    Just killing time...
  • mentinmindmaker
    mentinmindmaker Member Posts: 1,375 Arc User
    edited December 2021
    regenerde said:

    Well, when everyone can hit the AD refining cap pretty easy, it will pump more AD into the game, so i'd say it actually does matter... especially when you can run several accounts at the same time through the daily Siege quests until you have enough tokens for that rAD box.

    Giving out RAD will matter less, since a lot of the players will hit the daily cap anyways. The increase in available AD will be considerably smaller if you give out RAD rather than refined AD.
    regenerde said:


    And how exactly is removing the cap from the ZAX going to do any good for the game, when there's so much AD from exploits still floating around in game, or what about the AD that can be produced through other means then just refining rAD?

    One thing is that I am not sure old exploits affects the current AD level that much. It has been a while since there were major AD exploits, and it tends to drain over time, for instance by people leaving game and by taxes from increased AH sales. Blaming 'old exploits' is popular but might not really be true. If there is a problem on the AD side it is because too much AD is produced daily and too little spent.

    My understanding of the ZAX situation is that the main problem is people not selling Zen for AD, but rather buying items in Zen store and selling those, which gives a lot more AD back but with maybe 2-3 days delay. Selling AD on the ZAX today is for those that do not know better or the very impatient. In my understanding, the problem is not too much AD available to push the ZAX queue up, but too little Zen available to process that queue.

    Currently the ZAX basically is non-functional for its intended purpose, which is to give even F2P people some access to Zen.

    Removing the cap would balance the Zen price so your gains from selling Zen directly would more or less match your gains from buying Zen items and selling those. That would likely push ZAX wait time down to 0, so the F2P people would have access to Zen again in a reasonable time, although it would be a lot more expensive. It would also remove an 'unfair' earning mechanism from the game, where the rich and very patient can get richer by keeping their ZAX queue full at all time.


  • sagakaiyume#0847
    sagakaiyume#0847 Member Posts: 397 Arc User
    With the addition of knox boxes, the value of many items, including things like wards and collars, have shot down drastically; it may be a good time to take the risk of removing cap (though, I think any current orders that are set at cap should be automatically filled if it happens). Zen items atm have lower value than they use to and knowing knox boxes will be back, with perhaps different items, zen value may hit that breaking point.

    I'm aware of the other server being at 1k and hitting cap, but now that there is more access to wards, collars, account wide mounts, companion tokens, mount tokens, trade bars.. this may be the best time for the changes. (PS: I do make AD from zax, so the changes wouldn't benefit me). This would also stop those who trade their zen to AD directly from learning later they messed up and maybe not putting more in, along with less players telling everyone "don't buy zen to sell, buy stuff to sell" "Don't buy zen with $, use AD".

    Something else that should be changed; Rough AD/Refined no longer coming from dungeons. Many low-end/new players struggle to do them, instead increase the amount from doing heroics, MEs, Juma bags ect. This would help with bringing zones more to life with newer players trying to run heroics for their daily 100k, instead of everyone stuck waiting for ques/or stuck in a que they can't complete. Long time players shouldn't need to rely on rough AD from dungeons to buy stuff, yet they're the ones getting the most rough AD. (I fall into long time player, this again doesn't benefit me)

    Add in more stuff to be sold or add in a currency like reaper's marks for doing 1 of each random a day, including skirmish and RDQ. Newer players would be able to get at least 2 of those currency a day, along with older players getting 4 and willing to run random skirm/RDQ. Players who struggle with things like Demo can freely skip trials this way without feeling they skipped an easy way to cap rough AD for the day.

    Seals are pointless, as they get you some gear that's easily faded out, let this new currency buy epic account-wide comps/mount, tokens, even reroll tokens (Let players who haven't spent on the game see how valuable the rerolls are.)

    Ready for my LOLs o/
  • blargskull
    blargskull Member Posts: 513 Arc User
    I don't know how many people here play all three games. I play Champions the most, Star Trek is second place, and I play here the least. I never used the exchange all that much until I started playing here. That is when I just tossed a bunch of AD into the zen exchange, returned a few months later, and set up my slots. I recall the time was just prior to module 6 because I was doing the dragons with Simon, Wendy, and other players who are no longer here. Back then there was a backlog and I was informed there was a wait period. The rate was 500:1 and I didn't see any point investing cash into a game I might never play all that much.

    I don't remember when they raised the cap to 750, but I know it didn't magically solve the smaller backlog. People with AD waiting for zen were please for the moment, but people who paid cash for zen to invest at 500:1 were very upset. They felt ripped off. At this point in the timeline of Neverwinter, I seriously doubt they want to shout surprise! again at the remaining players spending money to buy the zen. To illustrate my point, John Smith buys $10 on 1000 zen and puts it in the exchange at 750:1 he immediately gets 750,000 AD. The next day or even next week, surprise! they lifted the cap, and now zen is trading at 2900:1. John feels ripped off by the fact that he could of made 2,900,000 AD for his zen and Cryptic loses a paid customer. Meanwhile this further upsets the community of free players because they need to grind out more AD than ever before. This also has the added affect of reducing the value of AD and making items cost more in the auction.

    The best thing they can do at this point is AD sinks. They are not doing them correctly, the ones they do have are temporary sinks, and the AD store is woefully lacking items anyone wants to buy at any price. Take a look at this tiny portion of the Q-store in Champions.



    The listing on the left is armors, weapons, vehicles, travel powers, and whatnot scrolling off the bottom. Each of the +20 categories opens a larger listing on the right.
    Anyone here recall how many lockboxes you needed to open to get the Swarm mount here back in mod 14? We had it as a travel power that could be bought for questionite. No loot box needed.



    If I want something like this on Champions, I have to grind A LOT to get 250K questionite or I buy zen and trade for it. The players are offering Q at 430 or higher, assuming I can get all the Q at 430, this item is going to cost me about $6 on Champions. I would much rather spend money there because it has a set price, I don't need to spin to win. Dumping refined Q on the Champions isn't going to make Cryptic money because we would just be spending it in the Q-store and have no need to use our zen. I estimate it would take me a solid month to make 250K Q. This is why, when I see something I want in Champions, I just pay for it.

    Just killing time...
  • wintersmoke
    wintersmoke Member Posts: 1,632 Arc User

    Hey, time zones don't end here at EST they go out into the Pacific Ocean. Maybe your now, is not aligned with their now? You ask them, if they are in the EST? You have to factor in these things you know.

    Actually it is a lot of guess work. Maybe tomorrow? As I see it, I have 2 days, you were over by 2, I can be under by 2, and still break even.

    Don't bet on any horse races, they have to come in on the nose! :lol:

    Ram Dass called... he wants his now back. He'll be there later to pick it up.
  • rubytrue
    rubytrue Member Posts: 565 Arc User
    I would really like the idea of a lifetime subscription to Neverwinter similar to what they have instituted in STO and Champions Online. I would gladly pay $250 (or 25,000 Zen) for that to happen. People with a lifetime subscription would be able to purchase items in the Neverwinter Zen store with AD at a 500:1 exchange rate through the Wondrous Bazaar; those items would be account bound similar to the Eclipse Lion. Items purchased with Zen would unbound and sellable/tradable. By being able to purchase items in the Zen store with AD via the Lifetime subscription in the Wondrous Bazaar, you would also set up an incentive for "Lifetime members" to actually purchase Zen to buy AD at the current 750:1 exchange rate. Since those items would be account bound, you wouldn't be flooding the markets with items designed to be "flipped" on the AH.

    It would be a win for Cryptic because I think a lot of folks would be willing to pay for the lifetime subscription (if you are getting $250/dedicated player, you're doing alright); it would be a win for people who bought the subscription because they would be able to purchase whatever they need for their account with AD after the initial real world money investment for the subscription; it would be a win for the f2p players because there would be an incentive to actually exchange Zen for AD by the Lifetime members.

  • hotfrostworm
    hotfrostworm Member Posts: 446 Arc User
    @wintersmoke wow, Ram Dass is someone I haven't heard of in a loooong time. All those LSD gurus are pretty much dead, assuming I have his now to return, I don't know his current location on the astral plane. As a programmer I studied Terence McKenna's "Timewave Zero", just for laughs I wrote my own version as part of project in Fortran.

    All the program really did was ask the user for name, date of birth, and their favorite color. It used a mess of complex formula to ascertain their life, down to the day and time they would kick the bucket. I used nothing random in the formulas and my instructor loved it. Today one might do the same thing using a spreadsheet. The whole idea was poking some fun at people who get into biorhythms, reading tea leaves, or using a PC to predict the end of the world.

    Let me know if you bump into Timothy Leary any time soon. I did borrow his claymore back in Scotland, in a previous existence, and I never did return it to him. He is probably still upset with me, he needed that for the Battle of Clitheroe, and I never did hear from him after that day.
  • mystylepwnsu#9187
    mystylepwnsu#9187 Member Posts: 1 Arc User
    New data

    purchase on 21th march 2021

    https://ibb.co/5KmDxwk

    Recieved 10th december 2021
  • hotfrostworm
    hotfrostworm Member Posts: 446 Arc User
    Thanks, just updated the old spreadsheet. :+1:

    I actually do like to see the roll backs on my predictions.
  • rainer#8575
    rainer#8575 Member Posts: 277 Arc User
    23th march -> 11th december
  • jules#6770
    jules#6770 Member Posts: 708 Arc User
    edited December 2021
    21st march to 9th dec
    on track I guess
    Post edited by jules#6770 on
    - bye bye -
  • stark760
    stark760 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 575 Arc User
    One solution that might help, make it so only 1 listing at a time, instead of 5. I'd rather get 5000 zen every 7 weeks instead of 25000 every 8-9 months.
  • blargskull
    blargskull Member Posts: 513 Arc User

    21st march to 9th dec
    on track I guess

    Actually, it looks like there have been a lot of people dumping zen into the exchange lately. I just looked at Mr. Black's spreadsheet and he had to correct it twice for adjustments. @hotfrostworm does this mean you will be lowering the +1.3 down to +1.25 where I told you it should be? :trollface:

    @stark760 that might help a little. Capping the listings would work on the "real players".
    However this game has RMT (real money traders) make up dozens of accounts to sell AD and gold to players for 100% profit. They will even steal accounts to accomplish their goals. A real player can only use the AD, zen, and gold on the one account.

    Don't sell your soul to the RMT, they are low life scammers.

    Just killing time...
  • tchefi#6735
    tchefi#6735 Member Posts: 359 Arc User
    edited December 2021


    Actually, it looks like there have been a lot of people dumping zen into the exchange lately. I just looked at Mr. Black's spreadsheet and he had to correct it twice for adjustments. @hotfrostworm does this mean you will be lowering the +1.3 down to +1.25 where I told you it should be? :trollface:

    With 1 or 2 more weeks (and some entries in this period), he will probably get closer to the real number, and it would probably work well until 15th of July zen orders.

    The waiting time tends to follow the backlog trend (with a bit of inertia).
    The backlog was building up slower after zen orders made on 15th of March. result => today we note that the waiting time didn't grow as fast as during the previous period.

    You can expect to see the waiting time peaked around zen orders made on 1st july (probably around 300d), then the waiting time will have a decreasing period during something like 2 months. Then probably a long stable period (as the zax backlog line is kind of flat since the end of summer).
  • plasticbat
    plasticbat Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 10,462 Arc User
    edited December 2021
    --
    *** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
  • regenerde
    regenerde Member Posts: 2,993 Arc User
    edited December 2021
    Well, the listing in STO came through yesterday.

    Next one on my list in NWO would be the one from 6/25/2021, i guess i'll see that one go through a few month after Mod. 22 goes live...
    Post edited by regenerde on
    I do believe in killing the messenger...
    Want to know why?
    Because it sends a message!