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ZAX - Duration Testing

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  • forumaccount#7167 forumaccount Member Posts: 98 Arc User
    My order from February 6th finally came through:

    posted 02.06 6:15 pm gmt+1
    received 09.11. 8:52 pm gmt+1
  • blargskullblargskull Member Posts: 461 Arc User
    rikitaki said:

    ...those are rAD - they make difference for a starting player, but for an active old players are pretty much useless.
    (There are other generous sources of rAD to get more than 100k per day easily, even one rtq per day will get you close if you always play with a char with ad bonus from invoking. And such players often go to check some dungeons too...)

    100K per day cap does not stop it from being 8 million on a big account, that is still 100K per day, per user, and 750K is done in 8 days. That is +1000 zen per week per user, and they didn't have to work for it. Some minor amounts did drop refined AD but Cryptic is still tossing AD into a bloated system. They need to clamp down on the AD rewards and get AD sinks in place. Over on Champions the Questionite cap (AD cap) is per character, the ratio is below the 500:1, and still no backlog.

    They act like they lost the path, however there it is, and you don't need a flashlight to find it. :trollface:

    BTW thanks for the data @forumaccount#7167 :+1:

    Just killing time...
  • rikitakirikitaki Member Posts: 773 Arc User
    @blargskull Well, I thought we were talking about old accounts with multiple chars - those are usually sitting on millions of rAD anyway - with easy access to make more. No matter how much rAD you throw at them, it does not make any change at all. Just those 100k refined every day, absolutely no change there.
  • hotfrostwormhotfrostworm Member Posts: 338 Arc User
    edited September 12

    My order from February 6th finally came through:

    posted 02.06 6:15 pm gmt+1
    received 09.11. 8:52 pm gmt+1

    Thanks, I think the increase is down to +1.25 days per day or in that margin. I made major changes to the sheet in my link below. I altered the old +0.6 increase to reflect a new +1.2 increase (double of the old formula) for the remainder of February postings to see how far that runs out.

    Update and Clarification

    Over coffee this morning Mr. Blargskull asked me, "How the (beep!) did you come up with those numbers?".

    Looking at the hard data points highlighted in green;
    Posting: 12/1/2020 Wait: 134 Received on: 4-14-2021
    Posting: 12/16/2020 Wait: 145 Received on: 5-10-2021
    Increased wait time: 11 days divided by 15 calendar days = factor +0.733
    Posting: 1/9/2021 Wait: 148 Received on: 6-6-2021
    Increased wait time: 3 days divided by 24 calendar days = factor +0.125
    Posting: 1/19/2021 Wait: 156 Received on: 6-24-2021
    Increased wait time: 8 days divided by 10 calendar days = factor +0.8
    Posting: 2/2/2021 Wait: 212 Received on: 9-2-2021
    Increased wait time: 56 days divided by 14 calendar days = factor +4.0
    Posting: 2/6/2021 Wait: 217 Received on: 9-11-2021
    Increased wait time: 5 days divided by 4 calendar days = factor +0.125

    When I factor the entire history from start to current;
    Posting: 12/1/2020 Wait: 134 Received on: 4-14-2021
    Posting: 2/6/2021 Wait: 217 Received on: 9-11-2021
    Increased wait time: 83 days divided by 68 calendar days = factor +1.22

    This is why I plugged in 1.2 as my forecast for the remainder of February. There was a "freeze" in there, I think the normal is around that 0.7 but you will not be seeing that with the fall season on the horizon. Players will not be so kindly tossing their cash into the exchange.


    Post edited by hotfrostworm on
  • blargskullblargskull Member Posts: 461 Arc User
    I was just saying, it looks like I was correct about getting my 10 zen close to Christmas. I never said, beep! to you I used the F word as I recall. :trollface:

    Just killing time...
  • gildriadorgildriador Member Posts: 215 Arc User
    Got 2 orders of 5000 zen posted on 9 Febuary 2021, this morning (17 September).
    The first order started to be filled at 9H32 and at 11H33 A.M. the last order was finished (eastern US-Canada Time zone.)
    “He raised his staff. There was a roll of thunder. The sunlight was blotted out from the eastern windows; the whole hall became suddenly dark as night. The fire faded to sullen embers. Only Gandalf could be seen, standing white and tall before the blackened hearth.”
    ― J.R.R. Tolkien, The Two Towers
  • hotfrostwormhotfrostworm Member Posts: 338 Arc User
    @gildriador it has only been 3 days since I changed the formula from +0.6 to +1.2 but it appears to be on track. It doesn't feel like much of a victory figuring out the increase of a backlog. I hope the data will assist in getting needed AD sinks, allow players to plan ahead, and eventually bring balance to the exchange.
  • theelusiveone#4954 theelusiveone Member Posts: 110 Arc User
    Got an order of 5K Zen posted on 11th Feb, filled on the 20th Sep. A couple of days early compared to the spreadsheet forecast.
    Kevfire
    Guild Leader
    Neverwinter SOLO Alliance
  • hotfrostwormhotfrostworm Member Posts: 338 Arc User
    edited September 23
    @theelusiveone#4954 I made the correction, between yours and gildriador is 4 day increase over 5 days time between posts, this drops the increase for the period to +0.8. Should that keep up, the exchange will be back to the normal increase we saw prior to the freeze.

    I only wish I could tell you the growth is going into decline. Maybe some users pulled AD out for the Astral Lockbox?
  • tchefi#6735 tchefi Member Posts: 309 Arc User
    edited September 24



    I only wish I could tell you the growth is going into decline. Maybe some users pulled AD out for the Astral Lockbox?

    It's not likely to decline before a long time.
    I have tracked the backlog since last year (every 15 days or so i'm writing down the backlog in a xls file), and we are still in the aftermath of the bonding stones sales. 1st phase was the january wall, 2nd phase is the current one, 3rd phase will be a normalization (returning to ~0.6 increasing rate), and then 4th phase we will see a drop in waiting time. But this last phase is still quite far away... it concerns purchase orders made after the end of the jubilee.

    Some graphics
    [[sorry for the french :P
    red line = the backlog (in M of AD, scale is on the left)
    blue line = waiting time of orders that are completed (in days, scale is on the right)
    yellow line = current linear projection of the waiting time (probably a good guess for orders made between 1st february 15th march, but probably quite inacurate for any order after that point)

    Zax
  • blargskullblargskull Member Posts: 461 Arc User
    Don't worry about the linguistics, if anyone has issues, I live in Michigan, we can send it to Canada for decryption. I understand President Trudeau won his election or I would have hired him as a Canadian/English translator. :trollface:

    I would say, a blind man could read your graph, that would not only be politically incorrect to say about the blind, also physically impossible. Instead I will say, it is very clear to me. :+1:

    Just killing time...
  • regenerderegenerde Member Posts: 2,936 Arc User
    edited September 24
    Well, the listing from the 12. February came through today:
    2:08 PM 4391 ZEN
    2:08 PM 609 ZEN
    and it was filled rather quickly...

    Next listings in line, 3. March and 25. June.
    I do believe in killing the messenger...
    Want to know why?
    Because it sends a message!
  • tamtoucantamtoucan Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 37 Arc User
    Same my 12th of Feb came through yesterday. 4x1000 ZEN listings
  • plasticbatplasticbat Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 9,835 Arc User
    tamtoucan said:

    Same my 12th of Feb came through yesterday. 4x1000 ZEN listings

    Just curious, why did you do 4x1000 instead of 1x4000 on the same day?
    The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will.
  • hotfrostwormhotfrostworm Member Posts: 338 Arc User
    tamtoucan said:

    Same my 12th of Feb came through yesterday. 4x1000 ZEN listings

    My sheet has the 12th at the 22nd, so I will call it close enough for now. Let's see what reports we get in the time ahead, I will leave the sheet alone for now and check back on this thread as more reports arrive.


    Just curious, why did you do 4x1000 instead of 1x4000 on the same day?

    Maybe it isn't important, but his posting in that manner proves you don't get your zen any faster for smaller amounts. As I speculated before, it is a FIFO queue, just like waiting in line at the bank.
  • mamalion1234mamalion1234 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 3,360 Arc User
  • handofhensonhandofhenson Member Posts: 4 Arc User
    listed
    15Feb21 08:56:36 GMT+1 800 zen
    bought
    30Sep21 04:14:24 GMT+1 401 zen
    30Sep21 04:27:01 GMT+1 399 zen

    @mamalion1234 at a guess, the first or second week of December for a 19Mar posted.
  • thany#4351 thany Member Posts: 202 Arc User
    2/16/2021

    completed : 1:03 am - 2/10/2021 (today, cest time)
  • mamalion1234mamalion1234 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 3,360 Arc User

    listed
    15Feb21 08:56:36 GMT+1 800 zen
    bought
    30Sep21 04:14:24 GMT+1 401 zen
    30Sep21 04:27:01 GMT+1 399 zen

    @mamalion1234 at a guess, the first or second week of December for a 19Mar posted.

    i think you mean november
  • blargskullblargskull Member Posts: 461 Arc User
    Late November to early December for March 19th. The current ratio is fluctuating between +0.8 to +1.3 days added per day. On the bright side, you will get your zen soon.

    Anyone posting AD for zen today is looking at sometime in October of 2022. :trollface:

    Just killing time...
  • mentinmindmakermentinmindmaker Member Posts: 1,264 Arc User
    edited October 3
    rikitaki said:

    @blargskull Well, I thought we were talking about old accounts with multiple chars - those are usually sitting on millions of rAD anyway - with easy access to make more. No matter how much rAD you throw at them, it does not make any change at all. Just those 100k refined every day, absolutely no change there.

    But over time there will be less and less really old accounts around, attrition is always there.

    So the situation for new players is what will more and more be the regular situation going forward as todays new players become the old veterans.
  • hotfrostwormhotfrostworm Member Posts: 338 Arc User

    rikitaki said:

    @blargskull Well, I thought we were talking about old accounts with multiple chars - those are usually sitting on millions of rAD anyway - with easy access to make more. No matter how much rAD you throw at them, it does not make any change at all. Just those 100k refined every day, absolutely no change there.

    But over time there will be less and less really old accounts around, attrition is always there.

    So the situation for new players is what will more and more be the regular situation going forward as todays new players become the old veterans.
    I agree, there simply cannot be anyone waiting for zen beyond what we see here (Feb. 15th) posted above. The only possible way to have AD sitting in the exchange from a year ago, would be to have posted it below the 750:1 ratio. There might be someone out there sitting on millions posted at 749:1 or less, thinking they would get that price. But this doesn't affect the people out there who know better. The backlog makes this less of a bidding competition and more of a fixed rate.

    I have read comments about raising the cap and all that does is shut down the 750:1 line up and move it to the higher queue. Mr. Blargskull and I were discussing this over coffee last week and we both agree there is just not enough wanted items to purchase for AD. AD sink items we discussed were; skins, nostalgia mounts & companions and other things they no longer sell in both the zen store and AH. At one point, I recall somebody told me the developers don't want to offer items at millions of AD. If the item is cosmetic or some old unique item, people will buy it if they are sitting on billions of AD.
  • mentinmindmakermentinmindmaker Member Posts: 1,264 Arc User
    edited October 3


    AD sink items we discussed were; skins, nostalgia mounts & companions and other things they no longer sell in both the zen store and AH. At one point, I recall somebody told me the developers don't want to offer items at millions of AD. If the item is cosmetic or some old unique item, people will buy it if they are sitting on billions of AD.

    They have put a few items into AD shop recently. For instance the 2nd chest keys could have a big impact even if they cost little.
    For people with no saved up RAD the 2nd chest keys definitely are worth buying.

    There seems to be a slight trend that the ZAX queue is declining. It is at 65.6M now, it was at 66.5 a few weeks ago. The decline is too small yet to be statistically significant, but still.. crossing fingers.
  • tchefi#6735 tchefi Member Posts: 309 Arc User
    edited October 4

    There seems to be a slight trend that the ZAX queue is declining. It is at 65.6M now, it was at 66.5 a few weeks ago. The decline is too small yet to be statistically significant, but still.. crossing fingers.

    The backlog peaked between 15th june and 15th july, I had noted it to be 70,3M and 69.8M between these dates.
    Since 15th july, the backlog is going down, but now slower than in july/august.

    15th june-15th july period correspond more or less to the completion of Zen orders made 20th-22nd january (bonding stone exchange = massive rain of AD = massive amount of zen orders).
    The decline we experience now in the Zax is very probably and mainly due to players who are not able to (or not willing to) refill all their Zen orders.

    Exemple : player X plays the game since 2 years. Before the bonding stone exchange, X was running 2 x2k zen orders (4k zen total).
    21st of january, he got let's say 18M AD from his bonding stones across is account => he immediatlely put 3x5k zen orders in the Zax, and then later, once the previous 2x2k ongoing orders arrived (let's say in march), he added another 2x5k Zen. (total +21k in the backlog)
    On 1st of July, he got his first 3x5k Zen, but... couldn't refill more than 2x2k, and so he returned to his "normal" behaviour with the Zax (-11k in the backlog).
    Later (october-november) he will get the remaining 2x5k zen and will also not be able to fully refill those but maybe instead 2x1k Zen . (-8 k in the backlog)


    This, multiplied by all the players who weren't already able to constantly run 5x5k Zen before the bonding stones exchange, we got =>
    the "backlog wall" of 21st-24th january,
    the "backlog big climb" of february-march,
    the "backlog quick drop" between 1st july and 15th august
    the now "backlog slow decline" since september
    there will also probably be a "back on track" period (return to 0.5/0.6 increasing rate of the backlog) starting around the completion of april-may orders.
  • hotfrostwormhotfrostworm Member Posts: 338 Arc User
    It is almost as if, someone high up at Cryptic believes AD sinks would be "bad for business". They need them in there, to remove the backlog, but also this makes paid players buy up Zen to get AD faster for the items they put in as AD sinks. The premium AD items need to be made account bound so they cannot be sold back to the public for more AD. They did this with the blue wards, one type you purchase from the Zen store can be sold on the public market. The other drops from some chest, I forget which one, but it is bound to account and must be used. Placing the blue ward (bound to account) in their AD store for one month would have radical changes in the backlog.

    I think Cryptic could sell them for a high price. I am not up to date on prices, last I knew they were 1000 Zen / 750,000 AD. Does anyone here think players would pay 1 million AD for immediate sale? Players with 18 million in the exchange would be digging it out to buy them. I don't know, maybe I am missing something?
  • fritz#8093 fritz Member Posts: 68 Arc User
    10k ZEN from 02/18/2021 3-5PM completed half an hour ago.
  • plasticbatplasticbat Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 9,835 Arc User
    edited October 7
    Posted on Feb 18, 2021 at 1pm.
    Completed on Oct 6, 2021 at 2:51am.
    Eastern time.
    Post edited by plasticbat on
    The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will.
  • fritz#8093 fritz Member Posts: 68 Arc User
    edited October 7

    10k ZEN from 02/18/2021 3-5PM completed half an hour ago.

    Minor correction: I think ingame shows me CET. So the correct posting time is probably around 7-9 AM Pacific. I figured because it makes no sense that plastic's completed after mine given the times.
  • plasticbatplasticbat Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 9,835 Arc User
    edited October 7
    --
    The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will.
  • john#8455 john Member Posts: 14 Arc User
    edited October 7

    It is almost as if, someone high up at Cryptic believes AD sinks would be "bad for business". They need them in there, to remove the backlog, but also this makes paid players buy up Zen to get AD faster for the items they put in as AD sinks. The premium AD items need to be made account bound so they cannot be sold back to the public for more AD. They did this with the blue wards, one type you purchase from the Zen store can be sold on the public market. The other drops from some chest, I forget which one, but it is bound to account and must be used. Placing the blue ward (bound to account) in their AD store for one month would have radical changes in the backlog.

    I think Cryptic could sell them for a high price. I am not up to date on prices, last I knew they were 1000 Zen / 750,000 AD. Does anyone here think players would pay 1 million AD for immediate sale? Players with 18 million in the exchange would be digging it out to buy them. I don't know, maybe I am missing something?

    Honestly though there is no motivation for them to fix the ZAX. If you're Cyrptic it would be better if it stays backed up and folks have to buy Zen for VIP and new comps and mounts. One of the biggest AD drains has always been the AH tax, so making more items available to be posted to AH would be a great drain if that was the goal.
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