ZAX - Duration Testing

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Comments

  • hotfrostworm
    hotfrostworm Member Posts: 446 Arc User
    Hey, time zones don't end here at EST they go out into the Pacific Ocean. Maybe your now, is not aligned with their now? You ask them, if they are in the EST? You have to factor in these things you know.

    Actually it is a lot of guess work. Maybe tomorrow? As I see it, I have 2 days, you were over by 2, I can be under by 2, and still break even.

    Don't bet on any horse races, they have to come in on the nose! :lol:
  • mamalion1234
    mamalion1234 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 3,379 Arc User

    Another data point if you can use it.
    Posted listing for 1000 Zen Nov. 10th 2020, received Zen Mar. 9th 2021 = 119 days.

    why guys you say 119 days and not 117 february has 28 days..
  • plasticbat
    plasticbat Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 10,471 Arc User
    edited March 2021

    Another data point if you can use it.
    Posted listing for 1000 Zen Nov. 10th 2020, received Zen Mar. 9th 2021 = 119 days.

    why guys you say 119 days and not 117 february has 28 days..
    Because it is indeed 119 days.

    Nov 10 to Dec 10 : 30 days
    Dec 10 to Jan 10: 31 days
    Jan 10 to Feb 10: 31 days
    Feb 10 to Mar 9: 27 days.
    *** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
  • blargskull
    blargskull Member Posts: 513 Arc User
    @hotfrostworm time is irrelevant just like Einstein told us. :trollface:

    They said, at 4 PM still not in, I see you updated your forecast on the spread sheet. I appreciate those side notes. I was pondering what the "ratio" was all about. Since the 10th has arrived we seem to be stuck on the 11th and 12th. I noticed something today, back on page one, I said 11/12/20 on 3/16/21 = 124 days. Then you said, no more like 3/13/21, after that you shortened it to 3/11/21. I think you were closer to the mark, just shooting from the hip cowboy.

    @mamalion1234 there is a spreadsheet program in Google docs you can enter a date like 3/15/20 and another 3/20/20 in the cells. Then you can simply subtract one date from another and the program does all the messy math. Also there are date programs online such as; This one.

    But I think you was just joking with us, and the Bat is too stiff to get it. :trollface:

    Just killing time...
  • blargskull
    blargskull Member Posts: 513 Arc User


    Text for those who need it due to not being able to read graphic images. :trollface:

    Hey BS, got my Zen early this morn. Odd thing here is the way it came in. This is from the log as I was not awake until now.

    37 @ 4:33 AM
    90 @ 4:38 AM
    900 @ 4:51 AM
    150 @ 4:52 AM
    100 @ 5:02 AM
    700 @ 5:05 AM
    1000 @ 5:08 AM
    250 @ 5:09 AM
    1773 @ 5:17 AM


    Total 5000 Zen took almost 1 hour to process.

    Tell everyone in your forums thanks for buying my AD today.

    Just killing time...
  • micky1p00
    micky1p00 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 3,540 Arc User
    It's not weird, it's just the amounts other people sell ZEN at. Separate sell actions (some could be by the same person if they suddenly thought to sell more, but usually different people).
  • hotfrostworm
    hotfrostworm Member Posts: 446 Arc User
    edited March 2021
    Updated that on the spreadsheet from forecast to received.

    From the looks of it the amount was 5000 zen in 44 minutes. But it has to fluctuate through out the day. If they are going through at a constant rate of 6800 per hour, that would mean 70,000,000 divided by 163,200 per day will move out 429 Days. There is the wall you hit on that exponential curve.

    But let's assume 4:30 in the morning is low feed time and estimate it is much higher for the rest of the day. You would need an average of 16,200 per hour to clear in 180 days. Which also means if players toss out 16,200 per hour then what is being sold?

    Wendy is calling me. Talk more later.

    ---I am back---

    Wendy is off to throw her money at the local casino.

    To better explain my concept behind the ratio, we must look at the known constant variable.
    "Player Post Date" is a known variable set by offering AD to other players for Zen. I don't think we need to discuss the bid, everyone seems to be aware you will never get Zen for anything less that 750 to 1. If there was no backlog then this would be another variable.Tchefi gave us amounts posted. This is a factor but apparently only a small one. Unless I am informed wrong the account can post a maximum of 5 x 5000 or 25,000 in total. At a rate of 6,800 per hour, such a posting would or should be filled in 3.5 hours and the next in line would then start filling. Most players appear to be requesting 5 x 1,000 or just 5,000 on the average.

    The unknown variables include the players who buy Zen and deposit it for AD.
    How much Zen are they buying in total? Why are they buying it? Do they fully understand the market?
    For example; the post above at 4:51 AM the amount of 900 arrives. Did this player buy $10 just to get something for 100 Zen and 675,000 AD? The ones that make more sense are those transactions below 500. This is what really makes predicting the outcome so difficult.

    Formula: Total Days Spent Tracking = Last Post Received - The First Post = 117 Days
    From and including: July 18, 2020 to, but not including November 12, 2020
    Number of Wait Time increase = 121 - 50 = +71 days since July 18th.
    Factor = 71 divided by 117 = 0.606 extra days per day.

    Let's do a forecast for 11/19/2020 posting. This is +7 days from the known posting. 7 x 1.606 = +11.2 days from the last known date received 3/13/2021 + 11 days = 3/24/2021.

    I have to get back to work... :lol:
    Post edited by hotfrostworm on
  • mamalion1234
    mamalion1234 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 3,379 Arc User
    edited March 2021
  • blargskull
    blargskull Member Posts: 513 Arc User
    edited April 2021
    Yes, Hotfrostworm has a spreadsheet that he "guesses, predicts" but he likes to use the word forecast. :trollface:

    @mamalion1234 according to his update, yours should be in this Thursday. I am not using any math or formulas and say I will guess Saturday. Here is his current forecast...
    AD INZEN OUTHIT or MISS
    11/7/203/5/21119 days
    11/15/203/18/21HIT!
    11/16/203/21/21125 days
    11/17/203/21/21MISstake! oops...
    11/24/204/1/21129 days
    11/24/204/2/21130 days
    11/25/204/3/21130 days
    11/27/204/6/21?
    11/29/204/9/21?
    11/29/204/9/21?
    12/2/204/14/21?
    12/14/205/3/21?
    12/14/205/3/21?
    12/14/205/3/21?
    12/25/205/21/21?
    12/30/205/29/21?
    1/19/216/30/21?
    1/26/217/11/21?
    2/2/217/22/21?
    3/3/219/7/21?
    3/6/219/12/21?
    The spreadsheet link is somewhere on page 2 of this thread. Mine is only asking for 10 zen posted 2/2/21. I will be waiting on it until Labor Day or Christmas! All joking aside, I hope this thread gives people closure.
    Post edited by blargskull on

    Just killing time...
  • mamalion1234
    mamalion1234 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 3,379 Arc User

    Yes, Hotfrostworm has a spreadsheet that he "guesses, predicts" but he likes to use the word forecast. :trollface:

    @mamalion1234 according to his update, yours should be in this Thursday. I am not using any math or formulas and say I will guess Saturday. Here is his current forecast...

    AD INZEN OUT
    11/15/203/18/21
    11/17/203/21/21
    11/27/204/6/21
    11/29/204/9/21
    11/29/204/9/21
    12/2/204/14/21
    12/14/205/3/21
    12/14/205/3/21
    12/14/205/3/21
    12/25/205/21/21
    12/30/205/29/21
    1/19/216/30/21
    1/26/217/11/21
    2/2/217/22/21
    3/3/219/7/21
    3/6/219/12/21
    The spreadsheet link is somewhere on page 2 of this thread. Mine is only asking for 10 zen posted 2/2/21. I will be waiting on it until Labor Day or Christmas! All joking aside, I hope this thread gives people closure.
    15/11 and today is 18/3 and still i didnt receive my zen:)
  • hotfrostworm
    hotfrostworm Member Posts: 446 Arc User
    @mamalion1234 thanks, I was just poking my nose in here to check on this, Blargskull could be closer as more people play on the weekends. But I also suspect there will be an exponential increase as time goes by as well.

    Keep us posted.
  • mentinmindmaker
    mentinmindmaker Member Posts: 1,375 Arc User
    edited March 2021

    @mamalion1234 thanks, I was just poking my nose in here to check on this, Blargskull could be closer as more people play on the weekends. But I also suspect there will be an exponential increase as time goes by as well.

    Keep us posted.

    Queue has been fairly stable at just over 69M Zen on PC the last 1-2 weeks. We have seen this before, queue usually tends to stabilize at some level until some event makes it move again. The last event that pushed it up was the bondings payout.

    It is expected that the queue will stabilize: as queue grows in length(and waittimes increase) it becomes more and more pointless to submit purchase orders, so people find other things to do with their AD.

    The upcoming sale of the improved Astral lockbox might pull PC queue length down a little. Those lockboxes are priced at 220k at AH at the moment, so at a (VIP) price of 75k they should provide excellent value.
  • mamalion1234
    mamalion1234 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 3,379 Arc User
  • blargskull
    blargskull Member Posts: 513 Arc User
    edited March 2021

    finaly i got my zen 30 minutes before 3/19;p

    Whew! That was a close shave! :trollface:

    @plasticbat is up next... to bat.

    I am going to keep track up there on the list. In classic Battleship fashion.

    Just killing time...
  • forumaccount#7167
    forumaccount#7167 Member Posts: 113 Arc User
    I'm waiting for zen that I posted on 11/16. It should probably arrive in 2-3 days. Maybe earlier because of the weekend
  • hotfrostworm
    hotfrostworm Member Posts: 446 Arc User
    @mamalion1234 congrats!
    @blargskull up to bat? Bad puns now? Are you trying to punish us? By Battleship fashion do you mean, if I get 3 in a row, I sank your sub? By the way, I was reading a thread on here about dungeons and got me in the mood for some REAL D&D, are you and your cohorts available next weekend for game night? My door is open.
    @forumaccount#7167 yes could be in as early as tonight. My forecasting formula needs work and more data.
    If Cryptic cares to upload their database to my server, to study the trend, just let me know. Something tells me they will not take me up on that offer. :lol:

    Should anyone need to estimate their Zen time arrival; At present today is March 19th, the current wait time is 124 days but tomorrow that time may increase by 0.608 (14 hours 36 mins). The question here is to see if that is going to be an exponential growth. Will the 14 hour increase be a constant variable or will it begin to grow too? So far it seems to wobble around a bit. But in the last 2 weeks I think it grew from 0.6 to 0.617. That would be a growth of 24.5 minutes every 2 weeks or 105 seconds per day. I will stick with my current forecast, until the data can show a trend.

  • forumaccount#7167
    forumaccount#7167 Member Posts: 113 Arc User
    edited March 2021
    Ok so the listing was filled today, 21/3, at 1:09 am to 1:16 am gmt+1
  • blargskull
    blargskull Member Posts: 513 Arc User
    edited March 2021
    @hotfrostworm Scooby Dooby Doo... where are you? I know you are out of town. Looks like Nov. 16th to March 2st, it is up to 125 days now. Mr. Bat's for Monday of this week or next? :trollface:

    I waited until just now 7:50 PM on the 22nd to call it a miss!
    Post edited by blargskull on

    Just killing time...
  • hotfrostworm
    hotfrostworm Member Posts: 446 Arc User
    > @blargskull said:
    > @hotfrostworm Scooby Dooby Doo... where are you? I know you are out of town. Looks like Nov. 16th to March 2st, it is up to 125 days now. Mr. Bat's for Monday of this week or next? :trollface:
    >
    > I waited until just now 7:50 PM on the 22nd to call it a miss!

    Still in Chicago for a few more days. I don't care much for contract negotiations even less in a mask. Enjoy keeping track.
  • blargskull
    blargskull Member Posts: 513 Arc User
    Hey @plasticbat That 11/17 order hasn't come in yet?? That is 130 days today. Forumaccount got his 3/21 and posted on 11/16 for 124 days, that is a 6 day bump in just 1 day.

    Just killing time...
  • plasticbat
    plasticbat Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 10,471 Arc User
    edited March 2021

    Hey @plasticbat That 11/17 order hasn't come in yet?? That is 130 days today. Forumaccount got his 3/21 and posted on 11/16 for 124 days, that is a 6 day bump in just 1 day.

    Nope! And, I am not surprised to have a sudden jump of longer wait. It is around the time of "Redeemed Citadel" which gave 'everyone' refined already AD everyday.
    *** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
  • blargskull
    blargskull Member Posts: 513 Arc User
    edited March 2021

    Hey @plasticbat That 11/17 order hasn't come in yet?? That is 130 days today. Forumaccount got his 3/21 and posted on 11/16 for 124 days, that is a 6 day bump in just 1 day.

    Nope! And, I am not surprised to have a sudden jump of longer wait. It is around the time of "Redeemed Citadel" which gave 'everyone' refined already AD everyday.
    Thanks, I am headed over to Mr. Black's (aka hotfrostworm) place for coffee now. I will be sure to look at his spread sheet. I am thinking that tossing darts at a wall would have better results. :lol:

    I am just going to edit here instead of double posting. We discussed this and Brian said he is going to be busy working and leave it up to us to track the curve. He suspects there is a growth as time progresses, fewer people spending, fewer whales tossing in Zen, and whatnot. I think most of us understand what an exponential growth curve is and how they work. But for those who don't, I made this technical graph.

    image
    Post edited by blargskull on

    Just killing time...
  • namelesshero347
    namelesshero347 Member Posts: 2,109 Arc User
    11/24 order filled today - 129 days
  • kharkov58
    kharkov58 Member Posts: 644 Arc User
    My 11/24 order has not come in yet. Must have been posted later during the day. It was for 10000 zen (2 orders) so hopefully it will start filling in the next day or 2.
  • plasticbat
    plasticbat Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 10,471 Arc User
    edited April 2021

    My Oct 29th listing went through on Feb 16.
    My Nov 17th listing is still pending.

    I have just noticed I made a typo in my February post. It was not Nov 17th listing was still pending. It was Nov 7th listing was still pending at that time. Nov 7th listing was fulfilled on March 5th.

    The next posting after my Nov 7 is Nov 25th. Sorry for giving out wrong data and messed it up.

    Hey @plasticbat That 11/17 order hasn't come in yet?? That is 130 days today. Forumaccount got his 3/21 and posted on 11/16 for 124 days, that is a 6 day bump in just 1 day.

    Nope! And, I am not surprised to have a sudden jump of longer wait. It is around the time of "Redeemed Citadel" which gave 'everyone' refined already AD everyday.


    When I replied I did not receive for the above, I was checking my Nov 25th one (I do not have a Nov 17 posting) without noticing the date difference. Sorry about that.
    *** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
  • blargskull
    blargskull Member Posts: 513 Arc User
    I just got back from a birthday party for a little girl. The only problem was the little girl was a 29 year-old man. :trollface:

    @plasticbat just glad we sorted it out. I was almost worried I would never see my 10 zen! I will kick open @hotfrostworm 's front door and let him know, by screaming, "Time to get the calculator and dartboard out!". :lol: nah, he would probably shoot me for home invasion.

    Just killing time...
  • plasticbat
    plasticbat Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 10,471 Arc User
    edited April 2021

    I just got back from a birthday party for a little girl. The only problem was the little girl was a 29 year-old man. :trollface:

    @plasticbat just glad we sorted it out. I was almost worried I would never see my 10 zen! I will kick open @hotfrostworm 's front door and let him know, by screaming, "Time to get the calculator and dartboard out!". :lol: nah, he would probably shoot me for home invasion.

    I am going to have a birthday party for a little girl tonight. She is turning to 30 and she is a female. :)
    *** The game can read your mind. If you want it, you won't get it. If you don't expect to get it, you will. ***
  • blargskull
    blargskull Member Posts: 513 Arc User
    edited April 2021

    I just got back from a birthday party for a little girl. The only problem was the little girl was a 29 year-old man. :trollface:

    @plasticbat just glad we sorted it out. I was almost worried I would never see my 10 zen! I will kick open @hotfrostworm 's front door and let him know, by screaming, "Time to get the calculator and dartboard out!". :lol: nah, he would probably shoot me for home invasion.

    I am going to have a birthday party for a little girl tonight. She is turning to 30 and she is a female. :)
    My friends and I chipped in on a birthday party for my brother he turned 29 today. We are always playing jokes on each other. We got him the Princess Icecream Cake package, complete with a wall banner, party hats, and plates. The only thing we were missing was either a clown or a My Little Pony mascot. The next person in our circle is April 15th, so he has time to plot his revenge. I am so glad my birthday was last month. :trollface:

    Back on topic, Mr. Black aka hotfrostworm, told me he will be busy until May. He still wants people to post here and then he will collect all the data and attempt to figure out that curve for real.

    Just killing time...
  • kharkov58
    kharkov58 Member Posts: 644 Arc User
    My 2 orders totaling 10K ZEN placed on 11/24 were filled today.
  • wrongun72#1436
    wrongun72#1436 Member Posts: 13 Arc User
    I just received 5k zen today from a 11/25 listing