Forgehammer of Gond (mythic)

dagambit
dagambit Member Posts: 187 Arc User
Can someone please explain to me why with the Forgehammer of Gond I failed to make Tier 3 brightsilver ingot 4 times in a row. The last time I took a math class 75% was higher than 25%. Why waste our time upgrading to mythic if we failure rate is so high. I am not saying it should hit every single time, but we should not struggle to complete task with a 75%/25% success to failure rate. This is unacceptable IMO, I have heard other people inside and outside my guild saying the same and even here on the forums.
Rogue - Setsuna F Seiei (PC)
Rogue - Setsuna F Seiei (XB1)
Rogue - Serenity (PS4)

Comments

  • micky1p00
    micky1p00 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 3,540 Arc User
    edited May 2018
    I think it should be separated to few things:
    dagambit said:

    Can someone please explain to me why with the Forgehammer of Gond I failed to make Tier 3 brightsilver ingot 4 times in a row.

    Yes, in a moment, yet shouldn't you do those with guild marks and not with gond?
    dagambit said:


    The last time I took a math class 75% was higher than 25%. Why waste our time upgrading to mythic if we failure rate is so high.

    Unfortunately for you 75% being higher than 25% has nothing to do with this, and if you continued your math education (this is not meant as an insult, just a fact, most people will never need this in their life) you would have learned that the chance of 4 failures at 75% (or successes at 25%) is

    (1-p)^n

    which will be 0.4%, still higher than that legendary mount people win, so congratulations you have 'won'
    dagambit said:


    I am not saying it should hit every single time

    Yes, if you will do it infinite amount of times you will not get it every time, but only 75%.
    This is btw called the law of large numbers https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers
    Yes, the large number of times is very crucial part of this, but ignored by most when complaining about the RNG failures.
    dagambit said:


    but we should not struggle to complete task with a 75%/25% success to failure rate.

    I think most will agree that the RNG system in professions and other places in the game as the gating mechanics only adds to frustration and negative feeling towards the game. The struggle is real.
    dagambit said:


    This is unacceptable IMO, I have heard other people inside and outside my guild saying the same and even here on the forums.

    I'm not sure what they are saying? that it's unacceptable? I've seen people say the earth is flat, and can't accept any other rounder options, so I wont be surprised by anything people say.

    Or they are saying they got success rate not matching the stated 75%? There indeed posts like that, most of those have no understanding of sample size, or minimal statistics, (not that I know more than minimal, yet indeed all you need is minimal) so are not a proof here or there, the only actual test I've seen on professions RNG showed that there isn't sufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis (75% chance, and I don't remember the p-value)

    So maybe there is something wrong, but so far, no one managed to show anything to actually support that claim.
    Post edited by micky1p00 on
  • zephyriah
    zephyriah Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 2,980 Arc User
    edited May 2018
    dagambit said:

    Can someone please explain to me why with the Forgehammer of Gond I failed to make Tier 3 brightsilver ingot 4 times in a row. The last time I took a math class 75% was higher than 25%. Why waste our time upgrading to mythic if we failure rate is so high. I am not saying it should hit every single time, but we should not struggle to complete task with a 75%/25% success to failure rate. This is unacceptable IMO, I have heard other people inside and outside my guild saying the same and even here on the forums.

    Then don't upgrade if you are good with 60%.

    What exactly is unacceptable? Probability and statistics? You think it should have a 100% success rate? Then say that. "This is unacceptable" means nothing. Personally, I find it totally acceptable. I understand statistics and random numbers. Maybe their Random number generator is off, of course it is possible. But without 100's of thousands results or even more to analyze, there is no way to know. Making a conclusion based on a small sample size, does not give valid results.

    Rates are not cumulative as most players want to believe. Players tend to forget the times things succeeded on the first try, but remember the consecutive failures. Players rarely talk about the successes, but talk loudly about failures. Just because you fail on the first try, does not mean you will or should succeed on the next 3.

    In statistics and random numbers, streaks are normal and expected results. The chance to fail 4 times in a row is .39% at 75%, or about 4 players out of every 1000 will see that result. You were one of the unlucky 4 in your attempt. At 60% without the upgrade, the chance to fail 4 times in a row is 2.56%, or about 25 players out of 1000. That means it is over 6 times more likely to fail 4 times in a row at 60% than at 75%. Based on that alone, I would certainly suggest the upgrade to Mythic.

    Edit: This took me a long time to type. Micky1's post was not there when I started, so I wasn't trying to beat a dead horse.
  • thefabricant
    thefabricant Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 5,248 Arc User
  • dagambit
    dagambit Member Posts: 187 Arc User
    Thanks for the input and feedback. I have had a good amount of success with the Forgehammer and failure. Its very frustrating when you see the 75% at tier 3 only to comeback with a tier 2 result. I am just trying to get an understanding and not complain. When I upgrade enchantments at 25% chance, and run through about 10 pres. wards I don't complain. The forgehammer situation is frustrating when you see 75% and still fail at the same rate you succeed.
    Rogue - Setsuna F Seiei (PC)
    Rogue - Setsuna F Seiei (XB1)
    Rogue - Serenity (PS4)
  • elmeister#2511
    elmeister#2511 Member Posts: 24 Arc User
    Failing 10 times in a row at 25% is 5.6% so not that unlikely