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Yet anothe Masterwork bug MW tasks failing constantly

dopefish18#0550 dopefish18 Member Posts: 4 Arc User
AFter noticing the past few days that my masterwork tasks were consistently failing even with a 75% chance I asked some other players and they are experiencing the same issue. It appears that it is not calculating the added quality bonus of items put in the optional assets. Luckily I found this before wasting millions of AD unlike my guild mates.
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  • pelgraxpelgrax Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 462 Arc User
    Masterworks works fine for me . Ran 3 Alchemy tasks for creating oil of vitriol .
    3 out of 3 were successful in crafting the oil so it was definetely getting at least 75% to get it .
    You must have hit a bad run of RNG more than likely , which isn't unheard of in this game .
  • dopefish18#0550 dopefish18 Member Posts: 4 Arc User
    edited May 2018
    It thought it was just bad RNG until I had around 20 fail. Oil of Vit is the only thing I'm doing because its super cheap and it still fails regularly. I confirmed with other players they have the same issue. Doing a task 3 times is useless data. Between those of us I have consulted we have done hundreds of tasks and have agreed that its a definite problem.
  • pelgraxpelgrax Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 462 Arc User
    3 successes in a row may be a very small data pool but it isn't " useless data " . You stated that you believed that it wasn't adding the quality bonuses to add up to 75% chance of success . For me to get 3 in a row shows that at least for me it is reaching the 75% criteria for the level 3 reward .
    When your attempts fail what level of reward are you getting and how many others are having similar issues and what tasks are they also attempting ?
    If there is any issue it would be beneficial to at least list what profession / task that is being attempted .
  • kreatyvekreatyve Member, Neverwinter Moderator, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 10,539 Community Moderator
    It could be very bad RNG, but from what OP is saying, it doesn't sound like. I'll forward the thread to the dev team to make sure they investigate it thoroughly.
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  • d0p3fish#5930 d0p3fish Member Posts: 5 Arc User
    edited May 2018
    I'm gathering info from the others having issues. For me I have been trying to create the following:

    Tailoring:
    Commissioned Awning failed at 75% x 1
    Cashmere failing at 75% x 3
    Cashmere Yarn failing at 75% x ~15 with 1 success.

    Alchemy:
    Oil of Vitriol seems to be failing about 50% of the time at 75% for x ~10

    So not sure if it is tailoring specific until I get more details from others. Hard to do a lot more testing myself since the tasks are long and expensive. Will update when I get more information.

    Guildmates:

    Alchemy:

    Oil of Vitriol failing at 75% x9 with 1 success

    Another guildmate:

    He states that only getting about 20% success rate while doing Aqua Fortis and Gold Nuggets at 60% chance.

    None of us are sure on exact numbers as we had not been tracking it until we realized there was a problem. We are all going to start tracking rates as of today.
    Post edited by d0p3fish#5930 on
  • unthoughtknownunthoughtknown Member Posts: 124 Arc User
    edited May 2018
    That sample size is small - I've had a task fail 3 times in a row at 95% chance. RNG Baby.

    Copy your toon to preview and do at least a couple of hundred.
  • daro808daro808 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1 Arc User
    While it could be bad rng, i also have had a lot of fails recently at 75%. Thanks for looking into it.
  • thefabricantthefabricant Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 5,248 Arc User
    edited May 2018

    Materials Before.

    AD Before.

    AD After. Final task failed.

    (94033488-89434577)/8000 = 574.8 ~~575.

    To check at a 2.5% significance level with a leeway for results of 0.05, I need a sample size of the following:
    (2.24*sqrt(0.75*(1-0.75))/0.05)^2 = 376.32, my sample is 575, so it is significant.
    Null Hypothesis: X=0.75
    Alternative Hypothesis: X=/= 0.75
    Lower Rejection Region: -2.24
    Upper Rejection Regoin: 2.24
    Number of Successes: 424
    Number of Trials: 575
    Test Statistic: (424/575-0.75/sqrt(0.75*(1-0.75)/575)=-0.698237948
    P Value: 0.2776
    Result: There is not sufficient evidence at a 2.5% significance level to reject the null hypothesis.

    At the very least, it seems likely the chance to craft Oil of Vitriol to be correct. I find it highly unlikely that the chances are incorrect in general and see it more as anecdotal evidence. I may check the chances on say Bronzewood Raid rings later, when I don't mind hurting my wrists again.


    Tailoring:
    Commissioned Awning failed at 75% x 1
    Cashmere failing at 75% x 3
    Cashmere Yarn failing at 75% x ~15 with 1 success.

    Alchemy:
    Oil of Vitriol seems to be failing about 50% of the time at 75% for x ~10

    Friendly word of advice, don't craft this stuff, especially not the awning.
    Post edited by thefabricant on
  • adinosiiadinosii Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 4,294 Arc User

    Friendly word of advice, don't craft this stuff, especially not the awning.

    Indeed. I highly recommend calculating the credit/AD ratio for all the commissioned items you can create. You may even find that it is worthwhile not to make some of the commissioned items you could make and sell the materials instead - focusing on making only the single item with the highest ratio. When I did the calculations, the spyglass was by far the best item to make - but of course that may have changed by now as the market shifts constantly.

    Hoping for improvements...
  • minotaur2857minotaur2857 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,140 Arc User
    edited May 2018
    To @thefabricant: you've done the test properly but you don't need anything like that sample size to get a significant result if you use the normal approximation to the binomial which can be used with far less results.

    I agree with your conclusions on your data, but mine across various crafts all at 75% show a different story.

    I'm 148 successes out of 225 attempts and have basically given up on mastercrafting for the moment because of this as it's bankrupting me (I'm also way down on the expected chances upgrading enchants recently with multiple 5%s and 3%s taking significantly over 100 attempts)

    mean = 225x.75 = 168.75
    variance = 225x.75x.25 = 42.1875
    st dev = sqrt(variance) = 6.495

    95% of results lie within 2 SDs of the mean, and 99% within 3, I'm outside 3.

    Also - was your test on preview ? anecdotally I tend to find success rate is worse when the server is busy/laggy, I'm not sure how that compares between the servers.
  • thefabricantthefabricant Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 5,248 Arc User
    edited May 2018

    To @thefabricant: you've done the test properly but you don't need anything like that sample size to get a significant result if you use the normal approximation to the binomial which can be used with far less results.

    I agree with your conclusions on your data, but mine across various crafts all at 75% show a different story.

    I'm 148 successes out of 225 attempts and have basically given up on mastercrafting for the moment because of this as it's bankrupting me (I'm also way down on the expected chances upgrading enchants recently with multiple 5%s and 3%s taking significantly over 100 attempts)

    mean = 225x.75 = 168.75
    variance = 225x.75x.25 = 42.1875
    st dev = sqrt(variance) = 6.495

    95% of results lie within 2 SDs of the mean, and 99% within 3, I'm outside 3.

    Also - was your test on preview ? anecdotally I tend to find success rate is worse when the server is busy/laggy, I'm not sure how that compares between the servers.

    I did use the normal approximation to the binomial, I just worked out how large a sample size I needed with such an approximation to be sure it fell within 5% of the expected mean (so, an interval of 0.7-0.8) with 97.5% confidence and then tested some value greater than that. Yes, I did not need to test such a large sample size, a sample size of 377 would have been sufficient, but I had the resources and the time and more importantly, the larger the sample size, the better the results. Yes, I did not need to test within a 5% bracket, but I like my bracket to fall within a certain percentage of the expected mean. If I had the time, I would have gone for a bracket of 3%, but for that I would need a larger sample than the 1 I used.

    Yes, my test was on preview, in port nyanzaru, next to the mailbox (I would never craft oil of vitriol on live). No, I do not believe the instance you are in, nor the number of people in it, nor any other number of external factors modify the outcome of your rng test and I am not about to ask 39 other people to help instance block an instance on preview for a control group. I craft a lot on the live server and calculate profit margins based on the given chance to upgrade. I have consistently made an expected amount of profit over a long period of time using the given chance to calculate and if it fell outside of that amount, I would myself have reason to be suspicious. As of yet, I have not (and I have kept a meticulous record of how much I expected to earn).

    A little story. When they fixed the allosaur fang drop rate, I failed 11 ornament crafts, with only 1 success, in 1 crafting session. It was brutal. I told myself however, that in that particular instance, I had just got unlucky and that over time it would even out. Guess what, over an extended period of time, my expected profit did come to match my actual profit, despite that particular streak of failures. Sometimes, you will get streaks of failures (and successes!) when crafting, its the nature of RNG. You can either give up and complain about it, or tell yourself that it was bound to happen in a large enough data set and that in the long run you will make it up somewhere else. I choose to do the latter.

    Not to call you out or anything (as you did your work properly) but are you sure you didn't make any mistakes recording data while checking this? I very specifically went about this with the intention of checking the chance and made absolutely certain to keep track of things properly. I find it likely (especially if you recorded that over a long period of time) that you would have made mistakes recording stuff (leaving out some successes etc in between) which would skew the results, especially since, in a larger data set, my results were not able to refute the given chance.
    Post edited by thefabricant on
  • minotaur2857minotaur2857 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,140 Arc User
    I recorded every attempt for a considerable time, I think accurately. Even if I'm one or two out it's so far outside the 95% 2 sided limit I don't like it. Also many double refinement sessions in a row on big sample sizes, not one was within the 95% limit, all low then it seemed to fix itself for a few and I stopped recording those stats.

    The sort of thing I'm seeing is it's as likely to see 3 fails in a row at 75% as 14-15 successes in a row. I'm something like 6:0 for that. I'm fairly strongly convinced that for whatever reason p(success when last trial was a fail) is NOT equal to p(success when last trial succeeded).
  • thefabricantthefabricant Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 5,248 Arc User
    edited May 2018

    I recorded every attempt for a considerable time, I think accurately. Even if I'm one or two out it's so far outside the 95% 2 sided limit I don't like it. Also many double refinement sessions in a row on big sample sizes, not one was within the 95% limit, all low then it seemed to fix itself for a few and I stopped recording those stats.

    The sort of thing I'm seeing is it's as likely to see 3 fails in a row at 75% as 14-15 successes in a row. I'm something like 6:0 for that. I'm fairly strongly convinced that for whatever reason p(success when last trial was a fail) is NOT equal to p(success when last trial succeeded).

    I did refinement as well with a sample above 500 and also found there that I was unable to refute the null hypothesis, I am pretty convinced the chance on the tooltip matches the actual chance, especially considering I make my ad based off that assumption and if I was off by a margin of 10% which your results would indicate it would drastically lower my income.
  • minotaur2857minotaur2857 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,140 Arc User

    I recorded every attempt for a considerable time, I think accurately. Even if I'm one or two out it's so far outside the 95% 2 sided limit I don't like it. Also many double refinement sessions in a row on big sample sizes, not one was within the 95% limit, all low then it seemed to fix itself for a few and I stopped recording those stats.

    The sort of thing I'm seeing is it's as likely to see 3 fails in a row at 75% as 14-15 successes in a row. I'm something like 6:0 for that. I'm fairly strongly convinced that for whatever reason p(success when last trial was a fail) is NOT equal to p(success when last trial succeeded).

    I did refinement as well with a sample above 500 and also found there that I was unable to refute the null hypothesis, I am pretty convinced the chance on the tooltip matches the actual chance, especially considering I make my ad based off that assumption and if I was off by a margin of 10% which your results would indicate it would drastically lower my income.
    Refinement for 2 years I was 20-30% off, then it fixed itself for a while. My recent experiences have been so horrible I've more or less given up.

    https://www.arcgames.com/en/forums/neverwinter/#/discussion/comment/13029451 for the experiences, first and last post that did this to me.

  • thefabricantthefabricant Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 5,248 Arc User
    edited May 2018

    I recorded every attempt for a considerable time, I think accurately. Even if I'm one or two out it's so far outside the 95% 2 sided limit I don't like it. Also many double refinement sessions in a row on big sample sizes, not one was within the 95% limit, all low then it seemed to fix itself for a few and I stopped recording those stats.

    The sort of thing I'm seeing is it's as likely to see 3 fails in a row at 75% as 14-15 successes in a row. I'm something like 6:0 for that. I'm fairly strongly convinced that for whatever reason p(success when last trial was a fail) is NOT equal to p(success when last trial succeeded).

    I did refinement as well with a sample above 500 and also found there that I was unable to refute the null hypothesis, I am pretty convinced the chance on the tooltip matches the actual chance, especially considering I make my ad based off that assumption and if I was off by a margin of 10% which your results would indicate it would drastically lower my income.
    Refinement for 2 years I was 20-30% off, then it fixed itself for a while. My recent experiences have been so horrible I've more or less given up.

    https://www.arcgames.com/en/forums/neverwinter/#/discussion/comment/13029451 for the experiences, first and last post that did this to me.

    I don't mean any offense by this, but going by the types of complaint threads you make, I get the feeling you don't really craft much. The number of tasks you are doing here, is actually quite small in comparison to the amount I am doing and I know that I craft a lot less than some others. I find, going off of my own experience that the chances seem to be accurate and the people I speak to about MW, some of which who craft far more than I do (1 guy on console has like 5 of every single item listed on the auction house), feel the same. I am not sure if they check things statistically, but I do and if the actual chance was 10% lower than the tooltip, I would be running a loss and would not bother crafting, which is a situation I am not in.

    And really, why are you making the lichstone belt, that thing is terrible and I would never stick it on a character. Every time I see 1 of these MW rng complaint threads and I see people list the stuff they crafting I find myself asking "why are you crafting such terrible items in the first place."
  • minotaur2857minotaur2857 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,140 Arc User
    edited May 2018

    I recorded every attempt for a considerable time, I think accurately. Even if I'm one or two out it's so far outside the 95% 2 sided limit I don't like it. Also many double refinement sessions in a row on big sample sizes, not one was within the 95% limit, all low then it seemed to fix itself for a few and I stopped recording those stats.

    The sort of thing I'm seeing is it's as likely to see 3 fails in a row at 75% as 14-15 successes in a row. I'm something like 6:0 for that. I'm fairly strongly convinced that for whatever reason p(success when last trial was a fail) is NOT equal to p(success when last trial succeeded).

    I did refinement as well with a sample above 500 and also found there that I was unable to refute the null hypothesis, I am pretty convinced the chance on the tooltip matches the actual chance, especially considering I make my ad based off that assumption and if I was off by a margin of 10% which your results would indicate it would drastically lower my income.
    Refinement for 2 years I was 20-30% off, then it fixed itself for a while. My recent experiences have been so horrible I've more or less given up.

    https://www.arcgames.com/en/forums/neverwinter/#/discussion/comment/13029451 for the experiences, first and last post that did this to me.

    I don't mean any offense by this, but going by the types of complaint threads you make, I get the feeling you don't really craft much. The number of tasks you are doing here, is actually quite small in comparison to the amount I am doing and I know that I craft a lot less than some others. I find, going off of my own experience that the chances seem to be accurate and the people I speak to about MW, some of which who craft far more than I do (1 guy on console has like 5 of every single item listed on the auction house), feel the same. I am not sure if they check things statistically, but I do and if the actual chance was 10% lower than the tooltip, I would be running a loss and would not bother crafting, which is a situation I am not in.

    And really, why are you making the lichstone belt, that thing is terrible and I would never stick it on a character. Every time I see 1 of these MW rng complaint threads and I see people list the stuff they crafting I find myself asking "why are you crafting such terrible items in the first place."
    I was making the lichstone belt because somebody asked me to make one, not for me.

    I did craft a tremendous amount in the previous mastercrafting age, and the RNG was RIDICULOUSLY streaky, but the overall number of successes was a fraction low but within bounds, so I stopped recording. Then I felt it started not to be, so I recorded every attempt thereafter. I don't make stuff to sell on the AH, I craft to order for friends and guildies, with profit not the main motive, but when normally you can make stuff 1/3 cheaper than the AH, and then you get a period where 18 items in 20 are 90% AH cost or more, it's time to give up.

    I will also say that your test was on an ingredient from the previous mastercrafting. I got flush on 75% for those on a 4 figure number (I split my recording of those and the final crafts from that set of MC, and the final crafts were c70% iirc). My issues have been with the most recent mastercrafting, and I'm like 2/8 for final crafts included in the stats I gave. The few old mastercrafting tasks I've had to do recently rather than just spending the GMs have been around par on a small sample size.
    Post edited by minotaur2857 on
  • thefabricantthefabricant Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 5,248 Arc User
    edited May 2018

    I recorded every attempt for a considerable time, I think accurately. Even if I'm one or two out it's so far outside the 95% 2 sided limit I don't like it. Also many double refinement sessions in a row on big sample sizes, not one was within the 95% limit, all low then it seemed to fix itself for a few and I stopped recording those stats.

    The sort of thing I'm seeing is it's as likely to see 3 fails in a row at 75% as 14-15 successes in a row. I'm something like 6:0 for that. I'm fairly strongly convinced that for whatever reason p(success when last trial was a fail) is NOT equal to p(success when last trial succeeded).

    I did refinement as well with a sample above 500 and also found there that I was unable to refute the null hypothesis, I am pretty convinced the chance on the tooltip matches the actual chance, especially considering I make my ad based off that assumption and if I was off by a margin of 10% which your results would indicate it would drastically lower my income.
    Refinement for 2 years I was 20-30% off, then it fixed itself for a while. My recent experiences have been so horrible I've more or less given up.

    https://www.arcgames.com/en/forums/neverwinter/#/discussion/comment/13029451 for the experiences, first and last post that did this to me.

    I don't mean any offense by this, but going by the types of complaint threads you make, I get the feeling you don't really craft much. The number of tasks you are doing here, is actually quite small in comparison to the amount I am doing and I know that I craft a lot less than some others. I find, going off of my own experience that the chances seem to be accurate and the people I speak to about MW, some of which who craft far more than I do (1 guy on console has like 5 of every single item listed on the auction house), feel the same. I am not sure if they check things statistically, but I do and if the actual chance was 10% lower than the tooltip, I would be running a loss and would not bother crafting, which is a situation I am not in.

    And really, why are you making the lichstone belt, that thing is terrible and I would never stick it on a character. Every time I see 1 of these MW rng complaint threads and I see people list the stuff they crafting I find myself asking "why are you crafting such terrible items in the first place."
    I was making the lichstone belt because somebody asked me to make one, not for me.

    I did craft a tremendous amount in the previous mastercrafting age, and the RNG was RIDICULOUSLY streaky, but the overall number of successes was a fraction low but within bounds, so I stopped recording. Then I felt it started not to be, so I recorded every attempt thereafter. I don't make stuff to sell on the AH, I craft to order for friends and guildies, with profit not the main motive, but when normally you can make stuff 1/3 cheaper than the AH, and then you get a period where 18 items in 20 are 90% AH cost or more, it's time to give up.

    I will also say that your test was on an ingredient from the previous mastercrafting. I got flush on 75% for those on a 4 figure number (I split my recording of those and the final crafts from that set of MC, and the final crafts were c70% iirc). My issues have been with the most recent mastercrafting, and I'm like 2/8 for final crafts included in the stats I gave. The few old mastercrafting tasks I've had to do recently rather than just spending the GMs have been around par on a small sample size.
    The reason that I did that particular craft in that test is because I was in an argument with someone who was claiming, believe it or not, to have a 95% success rate on that particular task, when using specific epic tools in a specific configuration. I have sold well over 300 bronzewood raid rings on live and a lot of assault+restoration as well, along with an assorted collection of other crafts and I was thinking of doing a batch of 400 raid rings sometime in the future, if I can stomach the pain that is crafting that many. If I do so, I will make sure to do it in the laggiest instance possible just to make you happy, but all of those other crafts (which were mainly done on the sh map next to the temp vendor) had an average around 72%.
  • minotaur2857minotaur2857 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,140 Arc User
    Yeah, I don't craft on that scale, and that's one of the places I tend to upgrade but not so often craft. I made a decent number of weapon sets from the previous mastercrafting (probably 100 or so) and quite a lot of armor till they announced the higher IL dungeon drops at which point I never got another order, just made a few for myself.

    Up till recently, time of day had a major effect, the ONLY time I got the advertised rate or better was like 5am Eastern, 7pm Eastern was worst (I'm in UK so didn't try a little later which might be even worse). Now nothing seems to work.
  • deanski07deanski07 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 74 Arc User
    It seems to me that the tasks that are the most expensive to fail do so more often than the smaller ones like oil of vitriol.IE: I failed like 6 times in a row trying to make gold ingot,but failed less times making gold nugget.BTW,how or where do i get Living Bronzewood?
  • thorfinn#4853 thorfinn Member Posts: 8 Arc User
    I can document, 10 fails in a row trying to craft a gilded ledger at 20%. Improbable.
  • micky1p00micky1p00 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 3,542 Arc User
    edited May 2018

    I can document, 10 fails in a row trying to craft a gilded ledger at 20%. Improbable.

    Improbable?!

    That's 10.7% chance.

    Would you have said the same if you had 80% chance of success and succeeded 10 times in a row? Doesn't sound so improbable doesn't it.
    Post edited by micky1p00 on
  • bayaz#7892 bayaz Member Posts: 89 Arc User
    I can not complain about the failure/success rates with MC. I am working my way through the trade credits now, crafting other stuff along the way. I am not really keeping track of all the successes/failures, but i rarely fail twice in a row. And i succeed as often 6/7/8 times in a row. Seems OK to me.

    I am talking about maybe 200 tasks done with 75% over the last few weeks.

    I had a very bad streak once, too. Failed with the stupid watch task at 35% 17 times in a row. But that was in February and it was the only "bad" incident. And with the cost of this streak being 17k GM, i can live.
    Beware of he who would deny you access to information, for in his heart he dreams himself your master
  • unthoughtknownunthoughtknown Member Posts: 124 Arc User

    I can document, 10 fails in a row trying to craft a gilded ledger at 20%. Improbable.

    Ha! This is funny.
  • demolitioninc#2453 demolitioninc Member Posts: 108 Arc User
    Maybe this is related to the quality of task. I can make MW1 fine oil of vitriol and gold lumps. But I had 5 consecutive failures in a row on rubellite and bronzewood rings at 75%. This really hurts.
    1. PzkwVI_Kingtiger - GWF
    2. PMS-Extreme - Moffus Debuffos
    3. Tiamat's Toyboy - OP
    4. Rent-A-DC - 1 GMOP per 30 minutes
    5. Officer at Civil Anarchy, Member of Fabled Alliance
  • unthoughtknownunthoughtknown Member Posts: 124 Arc User
    edited May 2018

    Maybe this is related to the quality of task. I can make MW1 fine oil of vitriol and gold lumps. But I had 5 consecutive failures in a row on rubellite and bronzewood rings at 75%. This really hurts.

    Yeah that is some 1 in 1000 bad luck there but entirely probable. I've had RNG luck where the odds are over 1 in a million - RNG happens.

    Related to quality of task is some conspiracy theory stuff - craft at least a 1000 and report back.

  • minotaur2857minotaur2857 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,140 Arc User

    I can document, 10 fails in a row trying to craft a gilded ledger at 20%. Improbable.

    Of my 8 crafts at that stage at 35% I had one take 9 and another 11.

    Related to quality of task matches my experience, but not excessively so. The real issue with the new mastercrafting is how penal fails are, if they gave you a decent amount of the materials back, would be a lot more bearable.
  • demolitioninc#2453 demolitioninc Member Posts: 108 Arc User
    edited June 2018
    Okay I think there is something wrong now. Why, beside my failures look at the number of Bronzewood rings and other MW 5 items on AH. There is only bronzewood ring left in AH and the number of beaded rings is decreasing as well. All that why the supply on raw materials on the AH is stable. That is something to be monitored, but I will currently stop making high value items.
    @nitocris83 maybe something for the team already.
    1. PzkwVI_Kingtiger - GWF
    2. PMS-Extreme - Moffus Debuffos
    3. Tiamat's Toyboy - OP
    4. Rent-A-DC - 1 GMOP per 30 minutes
    5. Officer at Civil Anarchy, Member of Fabled Alliance
  • dusty991dusty991 Member Posts: 16 Arc User
    How many fails in a row with a 75% chance to succeed would it take to indicate that somrthing is broken. I am doing commssioned item combines and they can be very expensive (thousands and thousands of astal diamonds), and i just completed 2 out of 6 tries so far, failing the last 3 in a row. before this I estimated that it would take me a month to reach 50k credit, but at this rate i'll be at least 3 months.
  • minotaur2857minotaur2857 Member, NW M9 Playtest Posts: 1,140 Arc User
    dusty991 said:

    How many fails in a row with a 75% chance to succeed would it take to indicate that somrthing is broken. I am doing commssioned item combines and they can be very expensive (thousands and thousands of astal diamonds), and i just completed 2 out of 6 tries so far, failing the last 3 in a row. before this I estimated that it would take me a month to reach 50k credit, but at this rate i'll be at least 3 months.

    Guild marks are your friend, some can be done very cheaply if you have copious numbers of GMs (I used the spyglass).

    I would start to worry if I got 2 one in a million events in a short space of time unless I was doing long term monitoring.

    To get 1 in a million you need 10 fails in a row. Log how many attempts and how many successes you get for your 50K and that starts to be worthwhile data.
  • dusty991dusty991 Member Posts: 16 Arc User

    dusty991 said:

    How many fails in a row with a 75% chance to succeed would it take to indicate that somrthing is broken. I am doing commssioned item combines and they can be very expensive (thousands and thousands of astal diamonds), and i just completed 2 out of 6 tries so far, failing the last 3 in a row. before this I estimated that it would take me a month to reach 50k credit, but at this rate i'll be at least 3 months.

    Guild marks are your friend, some can be done very cheaply if you have copious numbers of GMs (I used the spyglass).

    I would start to worry if I got 2 one in a million events in a short space of time unless I was doing long term monitoring.

    To get 1 in a million you need 10 fails in a row. Log how many attempts and how many successes you get for your 50K and that starts to be worthwhile data.
    not sure what this nonsense is. I was trying to suggest that the crafting has yet "again" become broken and the percentages have been reversed again resulting in a 25% chance when it should be 75%. it is bad enough that I cant afford to do anymore combines until its fixed,but its not like they will ever compensate us for our losses either. some of us dont use daddys credit card
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